Donald Trump could actually win this

originally posted by: galaga
If Trump would run as an Independent, he would only need 35% of the country to vote for him to win.

All Trump could achieve is gifting the White House to Hillary Clinton.

Does anyone else remember what Ross Perot almost/could have pulled off back in 1992?

Two wild cards involved in as many Clinton elections. It strikes me that Pero was tied to the Clinton camp. Trump my well be in the same boat.

originally posted by: MystikMushroom
Well Arnold and Ventura both won elections they ran in.

IMO this is an important point because it shows they were capable of doing so. Reagan was the governor of Californian long before he moved into the White House.

Why are we so surprised that a well-known guy like Trump gains support? US politics is nothing more than a high school popularity contest, on a nation-wide scale. It's just like voting for class president. People are more likely to put their vote behind someone they know and who makes the most noise.

Trump is tapping into the underlying anger many GOP supporters have at the lack of action concerning illegal immigration.

a reply to: galaga

The man is an arse of the first order. And the fact that people such as this nasty little specimen can actually run for the leadership of your nation does nothing to promote the idea of the democratic process considering he is part of the problem and in no way what so ever the solution to the nation's woes.

originally posted by: galaga
If Trump would run as an Independent, he would only need 35% of the country to vote for him to win.

Does anyone else remember what Ross Perot almost/could have pulled off back in 1992?

I think it may be possible. With the way life is like now, with people like Kim Kardashian becoming famous for being controversial and or having no talent?

How about a president for the same reasons?

How do you bring up the Ross Perot bit from 1992 as an example of Trump being able to win? You know how that episode ended right? He cost the Republicans the election.

originally posted by: johnwick

originally posted by: Swills
a reply to: galaga

Ugh, I can't believe people are actually supporting Trump...

I hope he quits soon.

Really?

He is much better than hitlery Clinton.

Much better jeb bush.

Actually runs a viable entity, and can't be bought.

Once you have that much money..... You really don't need a high paying job given to you after leaving office.

So lobbying doesn't work on him.

That is the best credentials of any candidate so far.

I saw on another thread a member posted he actually donated to Clinton, doesn't that basically tell you everything we need to know

a reply to: reldra

With Hillary and Jeb we are running into a real thorn bush.

Both families are buddy buddy with each other,
very close friends,
we could be creating a dynasty/royalty situation
in which it looks like we have a choice for
decades and decades to come
but the choice is nearly always between
a Clinton or a Bush.
Not a scenario that is good for the country.




If it is Clinton vs Bush
then Trump as an independent
actually could win.
Trump's policies are 50/50
50% of his policies are Republican
50% of his policies are Democrat

Most people who vote in the Presidential
election are totally unaware of politics.

They watch lots of TV.

Remember, perception is reality
in the minds of people.
Trump has great appeal for the
TV crowd, the Povich, Oprah,
Big Brother, Survivor crowds.
In his show he looks Presidential
he sounds Presidential
he appears to be smarter than everyone else
he is treated as if he was smarter than everyone else
he is treated with awe and respect
and in every way gives the perception
of someone who could be President.

Now I know that reality TV is not "real"
nor are ones perceptions based on TV "real"
they are really misperceptions most of the time.
(mainstream media news/propaganda
TV shows, and especially "reality" TV, etc.)

But the vast majority of uninformed voters
who believe what they see on TV
and who rarely watch the news
may decide that he is the best choice,
and a large enough block from both
sides and voila, Trump as President.

Yes there is a scenario where he could win.

originally posted by: xpert11

originally posted by: MystikMushroom
Well Arnold and Ventura both won elections they ran in.

IMO this is an important point because it shows they were capable of doing so. Reagan was the governor of Californian long before he moved into the White House.

Why are we so surprised that a well-known guy like Trump gains support? US politics is nothing more than a high school popularity contest, on a nation-wide scale. It's just like voting for class president. People are more likely to put their vote behind someone they know and who makes the most noise.

Trump is tapping into the underlying anger many GOP supporters have at the lack of action concerning illegal immigration.

On the other hand,
much of the Democratic base
are poor or lower class,
(not all but a great deal)
That is the demographic that
they are trying to enlarge with
unfettered immigration.

The poor and lower class
watch A LOT of TV
they are uneducated
and believe what they see on
TV.

The lower class and poor Democrats
could easily decide that
because Hillary comes off as
an old rich lady who is out of touch,
(remember she owned 5 mansions
while claiming to be dead broke -
her husband gets half a million for
every short speech he gives)
While Trump is rich too,

he doesn't pretend to be poor in order
to drum up votes; and even the dumbest
Democrats know she is filthy rich,
she comes off as an old rich snob
trying to deign to lower herself
to be nice to the "little people",

and Trump is certainly not out of touch
with technology as it is clear that Hillary is

Trump while rich, is clear and unashamed of being rich,
but also has had a TV show that appealed to
the masses,
in which for years he has come off in
"reality" TV
as quite Presidential and a man you want in charge.

The uninformed Democratic voter who believes reality TV is
real, is more likely to go with Trump than Hillary
for sure.

a reply to: grandmakdw

Hillary isn't the only Democrat running you know?

a reply to: Krazysh0t

Yes I know, but I was answering people who were positing
a Hillary vs Jeb vs independent Trump

In that scenario, I see Trump as the winner.

A cautionary tale for Hillary and Jeb supporters.

I also see Trump as being able to win a large
segment of the Democratic voters
as well as Republican voters.

Most people are assuming he will only appeal
to Republican voters.
Not so, there will be a very large segment
of Democrat voters he will appeal to.
See my previous 2 posts.

originally posted by: grandmakdw
a reply to: Krazysh0t

Yes I know, but I was answering people who were positing
a Hillary vs Jeb vs independent Trump

In that scenario, I see Trump as the winner.

That scenario is going to see Hillary as the winner, whether you like it or not. That is because the situation will be a textbook repeat of the 1992 election that got Hillary's husband elected President.

A cautionary tale for Hillary and Jeb supporters.

I also see Trump as being able to win a large
segment of the Democratic voters
as well as Republican voters.

Why?

Most people are assuming he will only appeal
to Republican voters.
Not so, there will be a very large segment
of Democrat voters he will appeal to.
See my previous 2 posts.

You are basing this off of WHAT evidence? Trump may be the Republican front runner currently, but he is literally DEAD last in the national polls.

www.270towin.com...

en.wikipedia.org...

I doubt it.

He's good for the media circus now, but once the debates start, he's going to be a train wreck and he'll more than likely get either thrown out by the hosts or booed off the stage by the crowds.

~Tenth

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: grandmakdw
a reply to: Krazysh0t

Yes I know, but I was answering people who were positing
a Hillary vs Jeb vs independent Trump

In that scenario, I see Trump as the winner.

That scenario is going to see Hillary as the winner, whether you like it or not. That is because the situation will be a textbook repeat of the 1992 election that got Hillary's husband elected President.

A cautionary tale for Hillary and Jeb supporters.

I also see Trump as being able to win a large
segment of the Democratic voters
as well as Republican voters.

Why?

Most people are assuming he will only appeal
to Republican voters.
Not so, there will be a very large segment
of Democrat voters he will appeal to.
See my previous 2 posts.

You are basing this off of WHAT evidence? Trump may be the Republican front runner currently, but he is literally DEAD last in the national polls.

www.270towin.com...

en.wikipedia.org...

Doesn't matter if I like it or not.

Hillary is not Bill
so it is not a textbook repeat

Bill is a great speaker
Hillary's poll numbers plummet every time she speaks

Bill was quite a likeable person,
even by those who disagreed with him strongly
Hillary is not likeable at all,
she comes off stiff and snobby
(roping off reporters and herding them like cattle
is something Bill would never have done)

At the time
Bill could go on the circuit
and his poll numbers would increase

Lots of people thought Bill was good looking -
and that matters these days
Hillary is not good looking
nor does she come off as genuine or likable on camera

Hillary is no darling of the media,
she has alienated them
and you can see it in their reporting
Bill was a "can do no wrong" media darling.

As for being a woman,
she is a woman who put up with being cheated on
publicly and repeatedly
and her husband became a laughing stock,
and she has remained married
to a man who is now a national joke for cheating on Hillary.

And she got where she is by marrying someone and staying with him solely to gain power.
Not appealing to feminists or women.


Hillary is not Bill and so this election
will be quite different.
Trump could take away votes
from Hillary easily, in my opinion.

I'd vote for him - regardless of which party he runs with this election cycle.

Why?

He doesn't have a filter and says what he's thinking. I prefer that over the prepared speeches and backroom negotiations really.

As far as his two biggest media slips -

Immigration - he made comments about illegal immigrants and that offended the entire Latino population? I doubt that VERY much and just saying it sounds racist to be honest.

McCain - He said he was a POW and not a war hero. You'd be surprised how many vets and service members despise McCain, so I doubt the comment offend a majority of them either. Again if being a POW makes McCain a hero then Jessica Lynch is one too.

He is what America needs in my opinion. After eight years under President Obama, we need a person that cares about this country, wants to see us as a world power, and is willing to say the ugly truth over the pretty lie.

a reply to: 200Plus

Immigration - he made comments about illegal immigrants and that offended the entire Latino population? I doubt that VERY much and just saying it sounds racist to be honest.

Oh no, nothing racist about stating that every person coming over the border is a rapist, not at all.

McCain - He said he was a POW and not a war hero. You'd be surprised how many vets and service members despise McCain, so I doubt the comment offend a majority of them either. Again if being a POW makes McCain a hero then Jessica Lynch is one too.

Regardless, he stated John McCain wasn't a war hero because he got caught. Considering he'd be signing paperwork to SEND people to war, you'd think he'd have more compassion for those who served and were tortured while doing it.

e is what America needs in my opinion. After eight years under President Obama, we need a person that cares about this country, wants to see us as a world power, and is willing to say the ugly truth over the pretty lie.

All trump loves are the following:

Himself
His Hair Piece
And his Money.

Actually, I think we've found somebody who loves himself, as much as Kanye loves Kanye.

~Tenth

originally posted by: boymonkey74
a reply to: galaga

Does anyone actually really think he would be a good president?.
I don't think I can think of many worse candidates in fact this frightens me more then any doom porn on ATS.

I don't think Trump has a chance myself,but rather him than Hilary IMO.
I would prefer a buffoon to a Hydra.

originally posted by: galaga
If Trump would run as an Independent, he would only need 35% of the country to vote for him to win.

Does anyone else remember what Ross Perot almost/could have pulled off back in 1992?

I think it may be possible. With the way life is like now, with people like Kim Kardashian becoming famous for being controversial and or having no talent?

How about a president for the same reasons?

For starters, I don't know what country you live in but.... here in America, 35% of the popular vote will not put anyone in the White House.

We currently have this little thing known as the Electoral College which insures that your 35% winner scenario can't happen and even if we did away with the EC system and went to a popular vote system, I'm confident it would include provisions mandating that a candidate would have to capture 51% of the national vote to win.

Anything less would be ludicrous. Can you imagine a Presidency where 65% of the population voted for someone else? How stupid would we have to be to allow a system like that?

Secondly, Trump has absolutely no chance of winning the presidency under either the current EC system or any reasonable popular vote system that could replace it.

That being said, I don't think his candidacy could have come at a better time. I call it "Divine Order."

Trump is proving to be extremely successful at exposing, (what I consider to be) two intrinsic traits of the modern day GOP which are bigoted racism and hypocrisy.

Once he described Mexicans as rapist and murderers, he immediately garnered that third of the GOP known as the Tea Party, which I believe to be the primary source for people crowding his speaking venues.

Now that he used one of McCain's own political tactics of "Swift-Boating" a decorated veteran, he is allowing the more mainstream wing of the GOP to make full display of their unfettered hypocrisy.

Seems like it was just yesterday when they wore band-aids decorated with little Purple Hearts to the Republican National Convention mocking John Kerry's service in Viet Nam.

I guess that means it OK to disparage our vets so long as they're Democrats?

Personally, I think the GOP may be splintered beyond repair. The way they're currently going, they may soon offer up more options than Baskin Robbins does flavors and none of them has a chance of capturing the White House in a national election.

IMO, the man to watch is Bernie Sanders.

originally posted by: grandmakdw
Doesn't matter if I like it or not.

Hillary is not Bill
so it is not a textbook repeat

Bill is a great speaker
Hillary's poll numbers plummet every time she speaks

Did you click on the links I provided? Hillary is winning in every poll that represents Democrats, but that isn't the reason I say it will be a repeat of 1992. The reason it will be a repeat is because if Trump goes as an Independent, he is going to split the Conservative vote. There are very few Democrats that actually support Trump (despite your insistence the opposite is the case), so Hillary wouldn't lose any votes to him, but you can bet that Jeb or whoever else the Republicans field would lose votes to him.

Bill was quite a likeable person,
even by those who disagreed with him strongly
Hillary is not likeable at all,
she comes off stiff and snobby
(roping off reporters and herding them like cattle
is something Bill would never have done)

At the time
Bill could go on the circuit
and his poll numbers would increase

Lots of people thought Bill was good looking -
and that matters these days
Hillary is not good looking
nor does she come off as genuine or likable on camera

Hillary is no darling of the media,
she has alienated them
and you can see it in their reporting
Bill was a "can do no wrong" media darling.

As for being a woman,
she is a woman who put up with being cheated on
publicly and repeatedly
and her husband became a laughing stock,
and she has remained married
to a man who is now a national joke for cheating on Hillary.

And she got where she is by marrying someone and staying with him solely to gain power.
Not appealing to feminists or women.

All polling disagrees with your opinions here.

Hillary is not Bill and so this election
will be quite different.
Trump could take away votes
from Hillary easily, in my opinion.

How? How about posting some actual SOURCES that show that a Democrat, ANY Democrat supports Trump, then maybe I could actually give SOME credence to your ideas. But for now, it looks like you are just overhyping someone that you have severely misconstrued the public's opinion of.

All your argument here does is show that, if correct, another Democrat would get the nomination over Hillary. It certainly doesn't raise Trump's chances of winning.

a reply to: xpert11

Which I don't really understand.

If you have a skilled job, Mexicans and other illegal immigrants aren't going to be taking them from you. We aren't being over run by particle physicists, organic chemists, rocket scientists, engineers, lawyers and doctors.

According to the GOP/conservatives -- if you don't like your job, find a better one. Go back to school. Learn a new skill, better yourself. Don't like your manual labor job being taken by an illegal immigrant? Maybe your job wasn't very skilled or worth very much to begin with. Go back to school, better yourself, find a better job.

Sometimes it's hard for the Republicans to swallow their own medicine.

a reply to: tothetenthpower

Ah, but that's not what he said.

If I say the 8 ball is black, I'm not saying ALL billiard balls are black.

It makes a nice talking point though.

He said being a POW doesn't make one a hero, just like being a soldier doesn't bestow the title. I (and many vets like me) agree. Hathcock was a hero, Meadows was a hero, Benavidez was a hero, McCain was a POW.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: grandmakdw
Doesn't matter if I like it or not.

Hillary is not Bill
so it is not a textbook repeat

Bill is a great speaker
Hillary's poll numbers plummet every time she speaks

Did you click on the links I provided? Hillary is winning in every poll that represents Democrats, but that isn't the reason I say it will be a repeat of 1992. The reason it will be a repeat is because if Trump goes as an Independent, he is going to split the Conservative vote. There are very few Democrats that actually support Trump (despite your insistence the opposite is the case), so Hillary wouldn't lose any votes to him, but you can bet that Jeb or whoever else the Republicans field would lose votes to him.

Bill was quite a likeable person,
even by those who disagreed with him strongly
Hillary is not likeable at all,
she comes off stiff and snobby
(roping off reporters and herding them like cattle
is something Bill would never have done)

At the time
Bill could go on the circuit
and his poll numbers would increase

Lots of people thought Bill was good looking -
and that matters these days
Hillary is not good looking
nor does she come off as genuine or likable on camera

Hillary is no darling of the media,
she has alienated them
and you can see it in their reporting
Bill was a "can do no wrong" media darling.

As for being a woman,
she is a woman who put up with being cheated on
publicly and repeatedly
and her husband became a laughing stock,
and she has remained married
to a man who is now a national joke for cheating on Hillary.

And she got where she is by marrying someone and staying with him solely to gain power.
Not appealing to feminists or women.

All polling disagrees with your opinions here.

Hillary is not Bill and so this election
will be quite different.
Trump could take away votes
from Hillary easily, in my opinion.

How? How about posting some actual SOURCES that show that a Democrat, ANY Democrat supports Trump, then maybe I could actually give SOME credence to your ideas. But for now, it looks like you are just overhyping someone that you have severely misconstrued the public's opinion of.

All your argument here does is show that, if correct, another Democrat would get the nomination over Hillary. It certainly doesn't raise Trump's chances of winning.

Actually, I do see another Democrat getting the nomination, for all the reasons listed.

Hillary is not as you assume, a Democrat darling.

Her press coverage proves that.
At this stage of the election when she ran against Obama,
everyone thought Hillary was a shoo in.
Well she is not and Obama, a virtual unknown,
beat her roundly.
For all the reasons I listed that you think are irrelevant,
she most likely will lose to another Democrat.

Trump, regardless of what you think,
will draw a huge number of Democratic voters,
the uninformed block,
which is a very very large block (in both parties actually)
and his TV appeal could win out.
I'm saying it is possible.

I actually don't want Jeb either.
Right now I am leaning toward Cruz, Rubio, or Walker.

No matter who runs, if Trump runs as an independent
it is my opinion
that the uninformed blocks of both parties
will flock to him
because they "think" he is Presidential and so smart etc.
Perception is reality, or becomes reality when it
comes to politics.