How a crisis in Estonia could lead to World War III

Found this interesting flowchart from vox.com, which illustrates how crisis in Estonia could possibly lead to WWIII, so I thought to share it here.

When you talk to the analysts and policymakers who worry about the possibility of war between the US and Russia, the scenario you most often hear begins in the tiny Baltic nation of Estonia, along Russia's border. Estonia is today part of NATO, which obligates the US and most of Europe to defend it from attack, and the US is deploying heavy military equipment there to deter possible Russian aggression. Estonia, formerly part of the Soviet Union, still has a large Russian minority that is served by Russian state media and has participated in incidents of unrest in the past.

The fear is that Russia could attempt to exploit or stir up unrest among Estonia's Russian minority, as it did in 2014 in eastern Ukraine. If such a crisis escalated, NATO's member-states could split over whether to respond — effectively dissolving NATO, as may be Vladimir Putin's hope — or, all too easily, the violence could escalate out of control into war, even nuclear war.

This flowchart, designed by Javier Zarracina, illustrates the decisions that US and Russians might make in a crisis, and where those decisions would take us. Many of the threads, as you can see, end in peaceful resolution, or something short of all-out war. But many do not, and at a certain point the logic of escalation become more difficult to resist:

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Even though such situation is highly unlikely due to the fact, that the amount of agitators and protesters would be minimal, even in Eastern part, where majority are Russian. Lots of people there often do visit Russia and see the situation there, compared to situation round here and generally like it round here more due to better life quality and more opportunities, especially when it comes travelling for education or work in EU countries. Russia would have interest that particular region definitely. It is estimated there is nearly a trillion worth of different resources like Uranium and different rare earth metals. At the moment, mining these, would be environmentally disastrous so these are just in the ground until technology safe enough for the environment and people in the area, is invented.

a reply to: Cabin

Some flow chart.

Lets cut to the chase. If war breaks out in Europe it will be because…

Estonia is today part of NATO…

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…and the US is deploying heavy military equipment there…

Imagine how the US would respond if Russians did that on the US border with Mexico. Who would be the aggressor in such a case?

a reply to: intrptr

If war breaks out it will be because Russia's inability to respect global order and the sovereignty of other nations. Estonia is free to invite whomever they want, whenever they want, on their land, and within their borders. Russia can throw a verbal tantrum, but this does not give them the right to do anything else.

a reply to: abstractvision

In other words, if a known armed robber was sleeping "out front" your house, you'd have no concerns…

"its his right".

a reply to: intrptr


Estonia could say the very same thing.

a reply to: abstractvision

America did not see it that way in October 1962

If war breaks out it will be because America's inability to respect global order and the sovereignty of other nations. Cuba is free to invite whomever they want, whenever they want, on their land, and within their borders. America can throw a verbal tantrum, but this does not give them the right to do anything else.

Yet had Russia not backed down I think we would have seen more than a verbal Tantrum from the U.S.A

Surely after what the West did with the dismemberment of Serbia and the forced creation/invention of an ethnic Kosovan State, it would be more than fair if Russia did the same and forced the dismemberment of Estonia?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Kosovo WAS the green light for all the mess we see now in eastern and central Europe.

Russia's chickens are just coming home to roost. Their aggressive actions and disrespect for those around them,have lead to this. The Baltic nations have every right to distance themselves from Russia and their sphere of influence. They have earned this right, and as a sovereign nation, deserve this right. They have the right to join any military alliance they choose. They have the right to invite any army they wish onto their own sovereign soil. Russia has no voice in. Maybe if they treated nations around them with more respect, and a better standard of living , they wouldn't find themselves in this situation.

originally posted by: joho99
a reply to: intrptr

Estonia could say the very same thing.

In Estonia's case the robber is living inside their house.

People calling Russia the aggressor willfully ignore the Russians aren't invading Estonia, for instance. NATO is.

See how they do that?

They invade a country because… someone else "might".

Now they'll respond and say:

"They were invited."

By who, the puppet government thats been bought off? The Estonian president is from New Jersey.

They'll say,

"Russia invaded xyz country…"

in response to US military buildup.

They'll say,

"Putin this and Putin that…"

Personal attack to draw attention.

When all else fails, put fingers in ears, close eyes and make monkey sounds…

a reply to: intrptr

Now you're just talking nonsense. Estonia is a member of NATO. Do you understand how NATO membership even works? Or do you just absorb and regurgitate Russian propaganda without cross checking the facts? Nations ask to join NATO, not the other way around. The voting process is unanimous. Estonia's government requested NATO hardware and troops on their soil which is their right.

wow is every one completely mad ?
ww 111 will be on the US head don't see Russia invading half the country's on the globe.
doesn't matter who fires the first nuk and believe it or not nuks are nothing compared to the 99.9% kill rate on the (for lak of better term ) shifting flue.
ww 3 will be the last war as man will have finly found a way to get along as there will be no men left .

a reply to: abstractvision

He understands perfectly but his job is to confuse the issue.

ps what country's people shout the loudest for war and killing anyway?
what country kills the most people in war and murder every year?
yep the US is still number one in anything to do with death.
heck we are getting so good at it in a few short years we will have caught up with the masters of death like Hitler and Stolin . our methods are simplistically its self kill who every we want and point our fingers at how tearble they are for wanting to fight back .

a reply to: intrptr

We've already seen what the USA does when someone creeps to close, the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The US didn't like it when the Russians parked ICBMs in their backyard, so why moan and complain when someone else gets pissed when you do the exact same thing?

Damn government is ran by hypocrites that want things their own way.

a reply to: abstractvision

Estonia is a member of NATO. Do you understand how NATO membership even works?

Yah, military occupation after puppet government paid off to look the other way.

Estonias president is from New Jersey, how puppet is that?

a reply to: cenpuppie


The reason Soviets put missiles in Cuba was because US had missiles in Turkey. Trade off agreement to remove both.

Little known fact.

"If you take your missiles out of Turkey we'll take ours out of Cuba…"

a reply to: Cabin

Well considering that Russia has invaded Ukraine and has been at war there for nearly 2 years and cant seem to beet the Ukrainians despite not having NATO to protect them ,it would be hard to imagine Estonia or the many NATO states have much to worry about . If the Ukraine can fight Russia and Russia is unable to expand within Ukraine for 2 years now then Russia doesn't really have much of a Army and is not much of a threat especially to Europe or NATO members .imo

a reply to: the2ofusr1

Russia has not invaded Ukraine so please do not try and deceive gullible members on this site

The last country with NATO supplying and training their forces that killed the Russian leaning population to the west of their country (Georgia ) lasted 5 days when the 58th brigade rolled in to save the civilians and eliminate the aggressors war machine

If Russia invaded Ukraine it would be a short conflict but it's a trap and the Russians know that,and they are not playing the wests game

Is the Estonian president realy from New Jersey? Lol

a reply to: Whereismypassword

I have been following the Ukraine situation from the beginning of Madian and know Russia didn't invade are not invading and has no intention of invading anyone . But how do you talk logic to people who are on the propaganda band wagon . My post above tries to do that in a hypothetical sense . If it is true what I said then how can a NATO country fear being invaded ?

a reply to: the2ofusr1

I'm sorry my friend if I misjudged the tone of your post

Propaganda exists on both sides,and disinformation is rife on the Internet

Putins unemotional morality free response to civilian casualties in Chechnya shows me he is another patriot and a dangerous one too

Trouble is the West has the same mentality in their own leaders

Surely NATO countries can't be afraid of Russia invading,it's not perceivable considering the potential for nuclear missiles to be used to eradicate humanity back to the Stone Age

I realy can't see Russia wanting to expand and start a war that will cost so many life's

I'm sure NATO knows that,that's why their pushing up to their borders

Anway,let's hope cool heads prevail