I think I'm cursed

originally posted by: johndeere2020
- What is the probability of a major event occurring within 300,000 sq miles within a month such as deadly EQ, deadly storm, plane crash, recession, climate/geological record events, outbreaks of disease, war on average?

- Could we all agree this probability is 1/10 on average or 10% chance something big will occur on something as big as Texas once a year?

No frigging way. This is where your mistake lies.

Let's be factual here. Let's take Japan for example, half the size of the superficy you posted.

Let's see 1 year of catastrophic events in Japan:

1) January 9 - Mitsubishi Materials Yokkaichi plant explosion, kills five persons, with injures 12 in Mie Prefecture.
2) January 25 - 2013 frozen food pesticide contamination incident, in Gunma Prefecture, arrested on suspicion of fraudulent 3) means obstruction of business man of contract employees was mixed the pesticide malathion by Japanese authority.
4) February - 2014 Japan heavy snowfall, according to Fire and Disaster Management Agency in Japan confirmed report, 95 persons fatalities, with 1,770 are injures, most of the victims is the snow removal work during the snow removal of the roof.
5) February 15 - 2014 Motosumiyoshi commuter trains accident, injures 19 people in Tokyu Toyoko Line, Kawasaki, Kanagawa Prefecture.
6) August 20 - 2014 Hiroshima landslides, according to official confirmed report, 74 people fatalities in Asakita-ku, Hiroshima.
7) August 27 - Accoding to Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare official confirmed report, a first dengue fever patient cases in the country since 1945, or later, 153 people are same symptoms by October, mainly, Tokyo metropolitan area.
8) September 27 - 2014 Mount Ontake eruption, according to official confirmed report, 63 people fatalities and worst eruption disater since 1991.
9) November 22 - A 6.2 Richter scale earthquake in Hakuba, Nagano Prefecture, according to Fire and Disaster Management Agency offiial confirmed report, 46 people injures.


9 catastrophic events in one year on a superficy half the size of Texas. That's a 75% probability of a major event occurring within a month

I won't even increase the probability based on the surface of Japan, let's just keep going with that figure.

- Since the calculation of consecutive independent events in probability is multiplicative and I've described at least 10 consecutive events, we do 1/10 raised to the power of 10.

Now let's do this with the correct 75% probability:

0.75^10 = 0.05


So basically a 1/20 probability.

For each group of 20 people, there is one person as "lucky" as you.

Barely "a staggering improbability" and more proof you have no idea what you talk about, have confirmation bias and probably suffer from schizophrenia.

Any question?

originally posted by: JUhrman

Let's be factual here. Let's take Japan for example, half the size of the superficy you posted.
...
...
9 catastrophic events in one year on a superficy half the size of Texas. That's a 75% probability of a major event occurring within a month

Japan is a high population density region on very geologically active plate with highly active weather too and most of the events you described are little compared to the ones I've described.

It's not surprising to see 75% probability per month if you include the relatively small events too.

I thought it would be wiser to use global average of populated regions only and also average on at least 10 years worth of data instead of making conclusions based on one place only and a tiny timeframe and ironically, a country I've not been to yet.

Anyway, i know who you are Jhurman. You seem to have a singular agenda to ridicule and dismiss member's paranormal experiences right here in our turf.

you do this under the pretense of trying to help......

.....so why create and login to multiple ats user accounts if you really have a good intention??

btw your avatar fits your forum deeds

a reply to: johndeere2020

BS I had paranormal experiences and shared them.

Doesn't change the fact I and many other posters told you here your reasoning is false and unhealthy.

And that such thinking is common for schizophrenics.


What you have ia not a paranormal experience, it's thinking something normal is extraordinary. And thinking you are important. A common psychological issue.

originally posted by: johndeere2020


.....so why create and login to multiple ats user accounts if you really have a good intention??

It's explained in the posts you have been searching through. Looks like you have a selective memory, are a bad detective, and even start to sound paranoid.

a reply to: johndeere2020

He did the maths for you. Even if you don't like him personally, maths doesn't lie.
It's really just a matter of probability and confirmation bias. If you don't want to become paranoid, or schizophrenic:

stop

My advise is: focus on your work. Don't believe in "out-of-your-control evil entities". Believe in yourself and stay constructive instead of talking yourself into a mental disfunction.

originally posted by: Peeple
He did the maths for you. Even if you don't like him personally, maths doesn't lie.

I'm still not convinced that we can use Japan to base probability of events anywhere in the world.

Japan is a high population density region in a very geologically & meteorologically active part of the Pacific.

It gives some really biased generalization of the world and I've not even stayed in Japan for more than 1 day (stop over of flight to Detroit).



Maths don't lie but GIGO still applies - Garbage In, garbage Out. Feed math rubbish or biased data and you'll get the same too.

Math cannot make rubbish or biased data and turn it into truth.

originally posted by: Peeple
My advise is: focus on your work. Don't believe in "out-of-your-control evil entities". Believe in yourself and stay constructive instead of talking yourself into a mental disfunction.

I'm abused and persecuted at work so it doesn't help. Ironically, those did me harm met some nasty medical afflictions of their loved ones. I bet they are coincidences too.

You don't believe at all in curses then leave my thread, you're not helping at all. Science could not offer me answers that's why I posted here.

originally posted by: johndeere2020
I'm still not convinced that we can use Japan to base probability of events anywhere in the world.

And I'm convinced your 10% probability was pulled out of your ass.

Even if we lower my estimate to 50%, that still gives a very different picture from yours.

Your bias is very common, check Littlewood's law.

Humans suck at estimating probabilities and have a tendency to believe common stuff are unlikely.


Sorry, you are not special. You only see what you want to see, confirmation bias and all.

originally posted by: johndeere2020
You don't believe at all in curses then leave my thread, you're not helping at all.

And by believing in curses you are not helping neither.

Curses, like most magic, work entirely based on the will and beliefs of the one experiencing it. It means if you believe you are cursed, #ty things will happen to you, regardless whether you are really cursed.

If anything, by showing you you are not cursed, we are actually helping.

And you, by wanting so bad to be special and cursed, you are simply attracting this to you. If you think it's cool more power to you. But if you really want to get rid of it maybe you should humbly accept some strangers help even if it hurts your ego.

originally posted by: johndeere2020

Japan is a high population density region in a very geologically & meteorologically active part of the Pacific.

As many of the places you visited. Let me refresh your memory:

- Hong Kong
- Japan
- New Zealand
- USA


I'm sorry, my Japan example is perfectly apt, you even cited Japan in your OP.

a reply to: johndeere2020

Here's one for you johndeere2020:

I got married to my first wife on september 8, 2001. We landed at JFK airport in New York (flight from Europe) on september 9 on our way to California for a 2 week honeymoon. On 9/11, I woke up at around 5:45 a.m. in a motel room in Monterey. Turned on the TV and CNN shows WTC I with a big hole in it and smoke rising out of it. At that point they still thought it was a small recreational plane that hit the building. I must have woken up pretty much at the exact time flight 11 hit the building.

So I woke up my brand new bride and we watched the coverage for about 3 hours. Then we decided to pack up and continue our drive up highway 1 to San Francisco. As I was putting the suitcase into the trunk of our rental car, an American walked by, and I said sort of hesitating "Good morning, sir!" He had a distressed look on his face and replied "No, it's not a good morning!"...

We still had an awesome honeymoon. There were no lines anywhere, much less traffic than usual. Yosemite was virtually empty. No planes in the sky. Hardly any music on the radio though. Only callers calling in to express their feelings about what happened. More and more American flags on the cars as the days went by.

A unique honeymoon, to say the least...

soulwaxer

a reply to: soulwaxer

I was in the WTC on 9-11-2000. It probably means something, right Maybe my simple existence caused 9-11?

Who knows.

I agree with Juhrman, Johnderre is very schizophrenic. Honestly the first thing you should pay for with you next check is some help Johnderre.

Whatever, I'll keep making updates!

originally posted by: soulwaxer
a reply to: johndeere2020

Here's one for you johndeere2020:

I got married to my first wife on september 8, 2001. We landed at JFK airport in New York (flight from Europe) on september 9 on our way to California for a 2 week honeymoon. On 9/11, I woke up at around 5:45 a.m. in a motel room in Monterey.

Three more and that's gonna be something

For example, one month after I left USA, boom! recession! Two months after I arrived in New Zealand and the next day after I got a job there, boom! Christchurch Earthquake with more than 100 people dead.

Eve of my birthday, boom! thousands dead in a record storm only few hundred kms away. One week before my flight to Middle East, boom! MH370 gone and I'm in the same region!

We're talking big international headlines, not just tiny events. So what are the odds of them occurring when I'm actually near the place??

originally posted by: johndeere2020
So what are the odds of them occurring when I'm actually near the place??

In a 2 months timeframe and within a 1000km radius?

Higher than you would expect.


Let me show you how we suck at estimating probabilities: what do you think is the probability that in a group of 25 people, 2 have the same birthday? Please answer honestly without any calculation.

Is it a curse, OP, or are you just very susceptible to the emotionally charged tachyons that ripple through time after a highly emotional/traumatic event occurs?

The emotions of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of people, charging tachyons traveling backwards in time, where you pick them up and then travel to where they WILL come from in the future. Of course, you do this because you are a misery vampire who gets off on the suffering of others to the point where you want to take credit for it when it happens around you.

originally posted by: JUhrman

originally posted by: johndeere2020

Japan is a high population density region in a very geologically & meteorologically active part of the Pacific.

As many of the places you visited. Let me refresh your memory:

- Hong Kong
- Japan
- New Zealand
- USA


I'm sorry, my Japan example is perfectly apt, you even cited Japan in your OP.

I've only stayed in Japan for one day compared to:

- 4 months in Hong Kong
- 6 months in USA
- 1.5 years in New Zealand

So I don't see why you think Japan would make a perfect basis for calculating probability

originally posted by: pilgrimOmega
Is it a curse, OP, or are you just very susceptible to the emotionally charged tachyons that ripple through time after a highly emotional/traumatic event occurs?

The emotions of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of people, charging tachyons traveling backwards in time, where you pick them up and then travel to where they WILL come from in the future. Of course, you do this because you are a misery vampire who gets off on the suffering of others to the point where you want to take credit for it when it happens around you.

I think someone posted an article regarding this phenomenon preceeding the events of 9/11 and part of the 9/11 plan was to trigger such emotional response in USA.

I do have a strong ability to sense and project emotions. I could also amplify someone's emotions and resonate my own. it was a lot stronger when I was a child. My sister would actually observe objects around the house vibrating and shaking when it happened. The differences between then and now is probably hormones and one of them might be helping to suppress my potential PK ability, most likely, testosterone.