Hope for the Middle East? Is there any?

originally posted by: Nedusa

If both sides really want peace you have to wonder why there has not been any lasting peace in all these years..

IMO, the question is too simple and the answer too convoluted.

Many people make it simple for themselves by reducing the Middle East circus to the conflict between Israel and Palestinians. You could call that a keyhole perspective, in which the bigger picture is ignored.

Israel does not really fear the Palestinians (except from a demographic perspective). Israel sees itself as geographically isolated in a sea of hostile nations and fanatical military organizations. It does not worry about stone throwing Palestinian kids or the occasional bus bomber, it worries about Iranian nuclear capacities, it worries about state financed terror organizations and superpowers sponsoring and influencing its neighboring enemies. Peace to Israel does not mean squaring things out with the Palestinians, it means squaring things out with the entire Middle East, which it knows is a near impossible feat.

Peace or peace agreements is often a question of timing. Peace in Europe wasn't possible in 1940, but in 1945 it was. Peace between Israel and Palestine was possible right after the 1948 Palestine war, when Israel offered return of Palestinians and land seized for peace with the Arab nations that had attacked Israel. The Arab League was however bent on annihilating Israel and refused to even negociate. Today, Israel is an economically and militarily strong nation, while its immediate enemies are economically weak and divided. Israel therefore prefer peace through superior firepower. They know that even if they arrive at some type of understanding with a moderate Palestinian authority, they will never have peace with Islamic fanatics and Arab nationalists. Israeli hardliners therefore prefer things the way they are. It allows them to keep the war spoils while the situation is militarily under control.

So do both sides want peace? Some do and some don't...

Strange how Arabs hate the country that gives them the same rights as everyone else in that country, namely Israel, Arabs can be anything they want to be, lawyers, doctors, factory owners, even diplomats, next door, (gaza) you're lucky to own your own shop.

a reply to: pikestaff

Yeah right ...
As if Arabs had any chance to have the same rights as Jews in Israel...
As if the jewish state proposal would make that any better for the Arabs...
As if you were safe from being assaulted by Jews as a Christian in Israel...
...

np

originally posted by: theultimatebelgianjoke
The Future of the Middle East

For several months, Barack Obama has been trying to change US policy in the Middle East in order to eliminate the Islamic Emirate with the help of Syria. But he cannot do this, partly because he has been saying for years that President Assad must go, and secondly because his regional allies support the Islamic Emirate against Syria. However, things are slowly evolving so he should be able to do so soon. Thus, it appears that all States that supported the Islamic Emirate have ceased to do so, opening the way for a redistribution of the cards.
...

Bravo!

 

a reply to: Gianfar

Reply to Ladyinwaiting:



Frankly if your contribution to this discussion boils down to a narrowly focused argument over 'linguistics' (semantics as such) its obvious that you lack any in depth knowledge of the political economics evolution injected by the west, and the determinable sociological formula underlying the rapid growth of terrorism world wide. Thats an old, typical response we get from the average person, who like yourself has adopted uninformed opinions and therefore has no interest in facts. The simple question you asked about Arab responsibility in the scheme of revolving violence is something that proponents of the East, West command nexus use to divert attention away from facts.

I suppose that works with ignorant people, but not those who do their homework. You seem intelligent, perhaps we can engage in a worthy conversation in the future, that is if your rational interests in this topic are up to task. Until that moment, we probably shouldn't tie up the thread with dissertations focused on non-related subject matters. Agreed?

For diaspora Jews, it's time to step up

For years there have been calls for on-the-ground opposition to the occupation. Now there are a growing number of Jewish platforms — and voices — seeking to make it happen.

The way the world is talking about the Israeli occupation is changing. Alongside that change, opportunity is knocking for those of us standing in opposition: calls for diaspora Jews to be present on the ground in Israel and Palestine are increasing. An important shift is beginning to take place — right now.

The writing is on the wall. Since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was re-elected, U.S. President Obama and his staff have been speaking differently about the once-incontrovertible two-state solution. One campus Hillel changed its name instead of changing it’s programming to adhere to Hillel International’s rules. If Not Now stormed onto the scene last summer in response to the violence in Gaza. Boycotts and BDS campaigns are sprouting up on campuses and at supermarkets all over the world.

...

originally posted by: theultimatebelgianjoke
For diaspora Jews, it's time to step up

For years there have been calls for on-the-ground opposition to the occupation. Now there are a growing number of Jewish platforms — and voices — seeking to make it happen.

The way the world is talking about the Israeli occupation is changing. Alongside that change, opportunity is knocking for those of us standing in opposition: calls for diaspora Jews to be present on the ground in Israel and Palestine are increasing. An important shift is beginning to take place — right now.

The writing is on the wall. Since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was re-elected, U.S. President Obama and his staff have been speaking differently about the once-incontrovertible two-state solution. One campus Hillel changed its name instead of changing it’s programming to adhere to Hillel International’s rules. If Not Now stormed onto the scene last summer in response to the violence in Gaza. Boycotts and BDS campaigns are sprouting up on campuses and at supermarkets all over the world.

...

There are Jewish youth and student groups who have staged demonstrations against the occupation and human rights abuses. A good number of them have also gone to jail for refusing to serve the mandatory military term n the IDF. Although the number of youth who refuse to serve is not published by the government.

There is also at least one museum containing poster size photos taken by Israeli soldiers who witnessed human rights abuses and torture of Palestinian civilians by Israeli soldiers. These are not events that Americans or westerners would hear about in the news, because the Israeli government hires attorneys to intimidate any news agency that would publish certain types of information.

Noam Chomsky interviewed one the lawyers paid by the IDF to threaten news agencies and individual journalists with law suites in the event that information is published that gives a negative appearance to the state of Israel in its treatment of territorial Arabs. Unless of course the information is counterbalanced with negatives about Palestinians. So, journalists tend to report either from the view of the establishment by diluting the facts with rationales or avoiding altogether stories that would create legal issues for them.

America’s choice on Iran: Obama’s peace or Netanyahu's war

...
Anybody who thinks Obama has won, that Israel and the Israel lobby and the Republicans are just going to concede the Iran nuclear deal without a fight, could not be more wrong. For the Israeli and American Jews involved, this is the supreme cause of their lives – preventing another Holocaust, as they see it. The framework agreement announced last Thursday looks to them like Munich. These are the terms they use.

For the American gentile politicians involved, it’s partly this badly misplaced notion of “never again,” partly (for the Republicans) Obamaphobia, partly Islamophobia, and partly fear of the Israel lobby’s wrath if they let Obama and the Iranians sign a final deal, whose deadline is June 30, three months from now.

...

If Bibi, the lobby and the GOP succeed in stymieing this historic, breakthrough deal, the Democrats and the rest of the world will never forget the decisive role Israel played. If the collapse of negotiations leads to an American war with Iran — what could be the first in a series of them — even the Republicans won’t forgive Israel. It will be remembered as “Bibi’s war.” It would reach Israel, too, via Hezbollah and its 100,000 missiles and rockets. The lost chance at peace, the war and the fallout from it would be very bad for America, for Israel, and for America’s Jews. The fight is on for “Obama’s peace.”

Already posted elsewhere but relevant here as well ...



a reply to: Gianfar

The BDS movement is gaining ground and is getting harder to silence.
Constructive criticism of Israel is also slowly coming to mainstream media, as it's getting unsustainable to back some of the zionist views any more.

Iran would have no need for nuclear weapons if "Israel" hadn't been in the process of obtaining a nuclear capability since late 70s. Now that Israel has such a capability they are threatening a first strike on Iran. The Israeli government is a paranoid, arrogant hypocrite that wants to maintain a uniquely dominant military threat in the Middle East. That doesn't fly in the real world.

The US turned Iran into a fanatical anti-western force by deposing the democratically elected President - Mohammad Mosaddeq (1954) who was the most democratically westernized leader the Middle East had ever seen. Israel should live by the same rules as other nations are expected to live by or there will be conflicts of interest and of course heightened threats to Israel's existence.

Many of us in the political arena recognize that Israeli and US politics have been run by fanatics and has fed into the anti-democratic terrorist ideology for decades, and now with the emergence of the immutable ISIS the pendulum has finally begun to swing back in the other direction. Anyone who sees where this is going should understand that ISIS is a beast that cannot be tamed. Eventually ISIS will be a direct threat vis-à-vis with Israel via Syria and with Europe via Turkey. This of course leads to the inevitability of ISIS incursions into the oil bearing nations, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and so forth, providing the ultimate threat to the western petroleum economy.

ME is the birthplace of ignorance. The things they created are all despicable. I am a CHristian for 20 years and now I think the religion is not so great. Jesus is great, but Christianity? NO!

a reply to: johndeere2020

Birthplace of ignorance?

Really?

Historically, the foundations of most of our sciences today came from the Middle East. Or China.

Any hope for the region will be in them remembering what they once were, and finding it again.

a reply to: seagull

Work in progress ...

A month in photos: Bringing the struggle to Tel Aviv

Separately, thousands of Palestinian citizens of Israel and Jewish Israelis of Ethiopian descent protest against institutional discrimination and racism in Tel Aviv’s central stage: Rabin Square. Palestinians mark Israeli Independence Day with a ‘March of Return,’ two Palestinian teens are shot dead by Israeli forces, Palestinian journalists denounce Israel’s imprisonment of reporters, and West Bank villages continue their struggle against the separation barrier and the occupation.

originally posted by: Heliocentric

originally posted by: Nedusa

If both sides really want peace you have to wonder why there has not been any lasting peace in all these years..

IMO, the question is too simple and the answer too convoluted.

Many people make it simple for themselves by reducing the Middle East circus to the conflict between Israel and Palestinians. You could call that a keyhole perspective, in which the bigger picture is ignored.

Israel does not really fear the Palestinians (except from a demographic perspective). Israel sees itself as geographically isolated in a sea of hostile nations and fanatical military organizations. It does not worry about stone throwing Palestinian kids or the occasional bus bomber, it worries about Iranian nuclear capacities, it worries about state financed terror organizations and superpowers sponsoring and influencing its neighboring enemies. Peace to Israel does not mean squaring things out with the Palestinians, it means squaring things out with the entire Middle East, which it knows is a near impossible feat.

Peace or peace agreements is often a question of timing. Peace in Europe wasn't possible in 1940, but in 1945 it was. Peace between Israel and Palestine was possible right after the 1948 Palestine war, when Israel offered return of Palestinians and land seized for peace with the Arab nations that had attacked Israel. The Arab League was however bent on annihilating Israel and refused to even negociate. Today, Israel is an economically and militarily strong nation, while its immediate enemies are economically weak and divided. Israel therefore prefer peace through superior firepower. They know that even if they arrive at some type of understanding with a moderate Palestinian authority, they will never have peace with Islamic fanatics and Arab nationalists. Israeli hardliners therefore prefer things the way they are. It allows them to keep the war spoils while the situation is militarily under control.

So do both sides want peace? Some do and some don't...

What makes you say both sides want peace?? Nearly every country there wants the complete destruction and annihilation of Israel and has publicly said so.

a reply to: theultimatebelgianjoke

Good for them!!

Whether you, or I for that matter, like it or not... Any changes for the better must include Israel. ...and the changes necessary for Israel to become more acceptable will, IMHO, be fueled by groups like those shown.

I am a reformed "Israel can do no wrong" fanboi. The change due in no small part to my time here on ATS... (I know, cheap plug...but there it is.)

Odds are very good that the changes are not going to be peaceful. There are far, far too many entrenched interests on all sides of the conflict.

Thanks for the link, I'll be following it.

a reply to: Gianfar

You're not wrong.

The changes must come. They will come in some shape, fashion, or form... The longer it takes the bloodier it'll be, IMHO.

Outsiders, which most definitely includes the U.S./Europe/China, need to leave it alone.

The only ones who can change the Middle East are the folks who live there. The Saudi's. The Jordanians. Egyptians. Palestinians. Israel. ...and the rest of the region. They are the only ones who can change it for the better.

It's up to us, Americans, various Europeans, and Chinese to keep our govts. out of it. That's our only task in this region.

I know, very well, that this is a fanciful dream. It's one worth chasing, IMHO. ...and it would be fairly easy to do, if we were willing to do the necessary work...

a reply to: seagull

Thank you for your reply.

Indeed, it's definitely the right time for some sort of 'Israeli spring'.
Any advise that would come from the outside world would be discarded as antisemite anyway.

If you like that insider perspective on the Israeli society, I strongly recommends 972mag and ActiveStills

It would seem that the Middle East has had issues since the Fall of the Ottoman Empire , at least the issues they have been dealing with in current times

a reply to: seagull

The root causing factors of the current issues can't be corrected by one charismatic leader. There is far to much separation between the different groups .

The only way to fix the current situation IMHO is to wait for oil to become irrelevant and force these countries to rely on trade with one another for income and economic stability to off set lost oil money .

I give it another 50 -75 years ?

originally posted by: seagull
The Middle East.

Birthplace of Civilization.

The homeland of three great religions (Judaism, Islam, and Christianity --if you needed to be told

). Birthplace of science, and mathematics. The arts.

In short? The Middle East is the birthplace of much that is good.

Conversely, the Middle East has brought much that is horrible, as well.

Religious hatred. Sectarian hatred. Generation upon generation, upon generation. Hatred that pre-dates the births of the religions that have so merrily adopted the hatred for their own purposes.

We watch in horror, those of us who can stand to (I'm not one of them) to do so, as captives are murdered in most horrific fashions.

Are there solutions to this ongoing, generational conflict?

This is the question that needs answering. Sooner, rather than later. If only to console ourselves that it can happen, or could have.

First thing, above everything else... We must realize that no solution, no matter how ingenious, is going to be instantaneous. It will take, literally, lifetimes. Yours. Mine. Our children, and theirs.

Like the conflicts, peace will take years to grow. Generations. Realize that it will take lifetimes, or we're doomed before we're even started. All we'll be able to do, is lay the groundwork for it.

Many years ago, a charismatic leader arose in the Middle East. He brought a message from God. He was the Prophet Mohammed. Charismatic. Intelligent. ...and perhaps unsurprisingly, fairly proficient with a sword. He began the process of uniting the Middle East under the banner of Islam. His followers, generations of them, continued to build on the groundwork that he laid.

Yet another leader, Saladin, rose when the Faith was threatened by outsiders. The Crusades. He began the process of eradicating the various Crusader states in the Levant by various means.

Other leaders, generations of them, continued the spread of Islam. East into Asia. West into Africa, and Europe. Many of these places are Islamic to this very day. It spread not just by the sword, though there was plenty of that, but by trade, which prospered under these leaders.

In these conditions, the arts and sciences prospered as never before, or since. The shoulders of giants that science stands on today lived and worked during these times.

Renaissance Europe might not have happened without the influx of arts, and sciences from the Middle East. A bit of an overstatement, perhaps, but not by much. It was called the Dark Ages for a reason.

This is what the Middle East under Islam is capable of. In our horror/fear/hate of what we see every day, seemingly, on TV/internet, we've forgotten this, assuming we ever knew it...

But... How do we get back to that? That's the question, isn't it??

That the Middle East needs, and deserves, a strong leader seems self evident. Not a tyrant, but a leader who can draw others to him.

But what will this leader need to be?

(hoo boy...)

1) Unfortunately, he must be a he. Until there is something resembling a reformation in Islam, leaders are going to be male.

2) Charismatic. He must look the part. He must sound the part. He must be all things to all people when necessary.

3) Intelligent. He must be educated to the point of being a scholar of Islam. Nothing less will work. He must be able to disarm arguments that will be brought by those in opposition, many of whom will be religious zealots. He must also be educated in secular matters.

4) A warrior. Not a killer wearing a uniform. Not a thug waving an AK. A warrior. A warrior knows when it's time to fight, and more importantly, he knows when it's time to talk. Anyone can kill. Not just anyone knows when to, or more importantly, when not to.

5) A healer. There are wounds that are centuries old, and are just as raw now, as when they first were inflicted. This is, in my humble opinion, the most important, and most difficult task he'll face. Sunni -vs- Shia is only one of an incredible number of conflicts that he'll have to begin to mediate.

He will need to be all these and more.

He must be firm in his belief. Strong in his belief. Not a zealot. One can be strong/firm in belief and not be a zealot/mad man. Only this sort can begin what must happen in Islam... A reformation. Currently, unless something of a miracle happens, women are excluded from any leadership roll, other than behind the scenes. This can not continue if the Middle East is to save itself.

Do you begin to see why it's going to be generational? No leader, no matter how inspired, or inspiring, in going to complete this in his lifetime. All he can reasonably hope to accomplish is to lay a strong lattice for his successors.

Where does the West belong in this great work?

Out of the way.

The West, meaning the United States, and Europe; need to leave it alone. It's going to be bloody. People are going to die. Entrenched beliefs of the sort we see in the Middle East will demand nothing less than blood. I hope I'm wrong.


Israel.

This is going to piss many of you off. This I know. But in this scenario, Israel must stand or fall on its own. They are the Middle East, too, and must live, or not, on their own merits.

As it currently stands, the Middle East is doomed. Doomed to stagnate in a bloody ghetto. Maybe not of their own design, or maybe it is. They control their own destiny. It's time and past that they realize that...

Perhaps ISIL is a sign that that realization is finally occurring. Not the way I'd choose to do it, but generations of hate, and fear, may demand nothing less...

I don't know, nor will I ever claim to know best for a culture, or cultures I'm not part of.

All I can ever do is pray for them.

...and that's all we should ever do. It's theirs to do.

As you stated, the Middle East has a long and extremely varied history.......and is still there today. So yes, there is plenty of hope for the Middle East but also plenty of tragedy ahead - the same for every other region on the planet.