Saudis pressure Russia via Oil prices to abandon Syria

A not so well kept secret was revealed in the MSM today, The Saudis have been using Oil prices as a political tool. Apparently there have been 'secret' talks between the Kingdom and Russia focusing on Syria. The Saudis are determined to flip Syria to a friendly version of Islam while Iran is just as determined to maintain it's strong partner Assad running Syria. Russia just likes having the long time friendly dictator Assad in power along with all the weapon sales the civil / proxy war is generating.

www.nytimes.com...

Clearly the Saudis have an extensive ability to manipulate Oil prices, they can pump close to 20% of the world's Oil demands. That allows them to drastically impact market prices.

Past evidence the Saudis were discussing Oil prices with Russia wasn't widely reported, but is out there. Here the Saudi Oil Minister basically tells Russia to go get stuffed when they asked him to cut production to raise prices.

www.businessinsider.com...

However Putin has resisted any pressure to abandon Assand and Syria, with good reason. Syria harbors an extremely important Russian base at Tartus.
en.wikipedia.org...
This base outside of the Black Sea ensures the Russian fleet at Sevastopol can't be effectively blockaded by NATO ally Turkey. Russia could bring a fleet to both sides of the straights to lift any blockade. Of course it's a little more complicated than that, but the base in Tartus is one of the very few Russia did not abandon during the lean years after the Soviet Union collapse.

Putin firmly believes Oil prices will rebound as the summer driving season arrives and everyone decides to go on vacation. While this is a normal pattern to the price of Oil current Oil markets are far from normal.

www.reuters.com...

A battle for Oil sales to the Gulf Coast refineries in Texas has been heating up during the past year. Canada has too much Oil and a recently completed pipeline expansion is going to send more heavy crude down to Texas. Of course the Keystone XL pipeline is still trying to get pushed through and if so would be a game changer. The Saudi's have been cutting heavy crude prices for shipment to the Gulf at a brutal rate trying to maintain market share but still have lost 50% of sales to the area. The heavy crude from Canada is being mixed with the very light crude from US shale explorations to create a very nicely refine able product for Gulf Coast refineries.

This Oil battle between Canada and Saudi Arabia for the critical US market isn't going to end anytime soon. On top of that Gulf refineries will shut down for annual maintenance soon, further building up Oil supplies in the area. It seems the economically challenged Putin isn't fully considering the complex world Oil situation.

Poor Syrians are clearly caught between world powers as their country gets completely destroyed. There doesn't seem to be anyone backing down in the fight to gain influence over Syria so far.

Russia are caught between a rock and a hard place on this one. They can't afford to give up their base in Syria, but the price of oil is effecting their economy big time.

I would suggest Russia will not bend to these demands and as a consequence, who knows where we are heading. It certainly feels like WWIII is on the horizon and we are heading to the point of no return.

What about the natural gas pipelines issue?

Russia's best interests are served best when the Middle East is in constant conflict.

a reply to: noeltrotsky

Given that this is the only "tool" that seems to have an demonstrable effect on Russia, I doubt Oil prices will rebound any time soon.

There is simply no alternative option for the West / the Saudis (since democratic/political options seem to be off the table, and the US-led sanctions are causing more and more rejection) to influence Russia on both Syria and Ukraine.

The price of oil has been used as a political / economic tool for decades.

That said, the oversupply of oil at the minute is caused by myriad factors. Keeping prices low is more about damaging the emerging fracking industries e.g. in the US and disrupting the ones on the starting blocs, and keeping market share than damaging Russia. Russia, like Venezuela and other oil producers are all suffering.

Those nations that are suffering are all blaming everyone else, except themselves, for their poorly maintained one-track economies and inefficient and costly production.

Regards

a reply to: noeltrotsky

A very well written piece.

I wasn't aware of the plans to mix crudes if the Keystone pipeline finally gets through the Buffet/Obama blockade. Seems reasonable.

If that pipeline is approved, does that change the northern pipeline plans to Prince Rupert or does that one go through as a hedge for Canada?

a reply to: noeltrotsky

P.S. A late thought. Where does China play into these machinations? They are arguably the biggest benefactors of the current oil glut and this may have saved them from outright economic collapse if some newsletter types are to be believed.

Drat! Another thought. As most of the American benefactors are smaller to mom and pop oil companies/property owners- big oil actually being hugely hurt by this 'glut'- where is big oil's play in all this?

Why haven't THEY cut production, themselves? They are certainly capable of it!

I'm getting a headache......

a reply to: noeltrotsky

The scum bags fixing prices are going to have a rude awaking in the very near future if they keep messing around with Russia this way. I am not a Putin or Russia fan in fact I think they have become what they hate.......Nazi's.



But messing with them this way could lead them to acts of desperation and that is flat out scary. Putin is not going to give up power or his Naval base......Not happening. So maybe we should find diplomatic ways of fixing this.

originally posted by: nwtrucker
A very well written piece.

Much appreciated!

I wasn't aware of the plans to mix crudes if the Keystone pipeline finally gets through the Buffet/Obama blockade. Seems reasonable.

It is interesting. Apparently the Gulf refineries work 'best' with heavier crude. I imagine because it's a bit cheaper and they can produce more by products, but I'm no refinery expert.

If that pipeline is approved, does that change the northern pipeline plans to Prince Rupert or does that one go through as a hedge for Canada?

There is so much Oil in those Canadian Tar sands they can fill up Keystone XL as well as fill up the Northern Gateway pipeline to the West Coast. It's basically how fast can they dig and wash sand so they can scale operations up or down as best suited.

originally posted by: nwtrucker
P.S. A late thought. Where does China play into these machinations? They are arguably the biggest benefactors of the current oil glut and this may have saved them from outright economic collapse if some newsletter types are to be believed.

As a big consumer China is saving billions of dollars each and everyday. They are probably thinking of ways to keep the current political mess alive as long as possible to keep Oil prices down.

Drat! Another thought. As most of the American benefactors are smaller to mom and pop oil companies/property owners- big oil actually being hugely hurt by this 'glut'- where is big oil's play in all this?
Why haven't THEY cut production, themselves? They are certainly capable of it!

US big Oil is locked into the drills they have already done and started. That money is sunk costs so they will generally pump them dry. It's the new drills that US Shale producers have really cut back on now. It will reduce production down the road a few years when the current holes start going dry.

originally posted by: paraphi
The price of oil has been used as a political / economic tool for decades.
That said, the oversupply of oil at the minute is caused by myriad factors.

Very true! There are lots of issues contributing.

Keeping prices low is more about damaging the emerging fracking industries e.g. in the US and disrupting the ones on the starting blocs, and keeping market share than damaging Russia. Russia, like Venezuela and other oil producers are all suffering.

I agree the Saudis are trying to protect market share and damage high cost producers, but I wonder if that is the main reason. They seem extremely committed to overthrowing Assad and gaining influence in Syria. They are hammering Iran and Russia pretty hard right now. It is debatable what the main motivation is for the Saudis. They are losing billions and billions to lower the price of Oil...so whatever they want it is extremely important to them.

originally posted by: xuenchen
What about the natural gas pipelines issue?

Now that is yet another dynamic to the story. The gas pipelines planned and desired across Turkey and Syria are really big issues for the EU. Basically the EU is trying to diversify natural gas supply and Russia is trying to maintain a lock on the EU market. It's the Caspian gas pipeline that is irritating Russia/Iran.
en.wikipedia.org...

Russia's best interests are served best when the Middle East is in constant conflict.

As a huge weapons dealer Russia loves seeing military conflicts! Of course the US does as well...

originally posted by: ColCurious
a reply to: noeltrotsky
Given that this is the only "tool" that seems to have an demonstrable effect on Russia, I doubt Oil prices will rebound any time soon.
There is simply no alternative option for the West / the Saudis (since democratic/political options seem to be off the table, and the US-led sanctions are causing more and more rejection) to influence Russia on both Syria and Ukraine.

I agree somewhat. The tanking of Oil prices has really exposed Russia. No doubt Putin will learn from his mistake and start diversifying his economy after things settle down.

The US has lots of tools to deal with Russia however. I fully expect Obama to supply Ukraine with boat loads of weapons very soon. The Stinger anti-tank missiles are the main weapon they need I believe. The older tanks being used by the separatists/Russians in Ukraine don't have anti-missile defenses like the amazing Israeli tanks have. Stingers are going to wipe out a ton of expensive old Russian armor in Ukraine. I'd buy a scrap metal company there if I could...it's going to be great pickings soon.

The US and EU haven't even sanctioned any real exports to Russia and prices for food there are going sky high. They start some food sanctions on Russia and it can get a lot worse for ordinary Russians on the street.

originally posted by: SubTruth
The scum bags fixing prices are going to have a rude awaking in the very near future if they keep messing around with Russia this way. I am not a Putin or Russia fan in fact I think they have become what they hate.......Nazi's.
But messing with them this way could lead them to acts of desperation and that is flat out scary. Putin is not going to give up power or his Naval base......Not happening. So maybe we should find diplomatic ways of fixing this.

Agreed. The more economic pressure on Russia the more chances for a much larger war to break out. I think this is the main reason the EU and US are so slow to react even though Ukraine is clearly suffering.

A much wider conflict will begin with Russia grabbing all Southern Ukraine and linking up with Transneistria in Moldova. If/When that happens then you know Russia has basically said F U to the West. After that they could grab all of Ukraine and work on the Baltics as well. It really could get very nasty...very quickly.

The Saudis and Quatar want their gas pipe line to Turkey/EU and need the Sunni and Wahhabi to remove Assad to get it. Bandar "Bush" even had terror cells attack inside Russia to make Russia give up Syria. This is only the last step and ISIS is used by Saudi Arabia behind the scenes to create the problem that will give them the solution they want. The religious Wahhabi do not know they are being manipulated to fight for Saudi Arabian and US interest.

1 Look at Libya and how Wahhabi are allowed the control after US/Saudis have removed a threat to their plans.
2 Look at how ISIS could go from Iraq to Syria and the open border thru Turkey and how US are not able to bomb the militants to pieces. US would have bombed them to pieces if it was the plan.
3 Look at the release of murderers in Saudi Arabian jails to go and fight in Syria.

originally posted by: xuenchen
What about the natural gas pipelines issue?

A good article about the natural gas issue between Russia and the EU...
www.businessinsider.com...

originally posted by: LittleByLittle
The Saudis and Quatar want their gas pipe line to Turkey/EU and need the Sunni and Wahhabi to remove Assad to get it.

Excellent point. There is more to the Saudis desires in Syria than simple religious conversion.

A friendly verision of Syria, taking the women out of their freedoms and shoving them into burqa's? Isil? Friendly, or something from a hellzone thousands of years ago?

Currently they have a quite a decent country minus Isil and the US's presence. Moderate.