Germany stops arms exports to Saudi Arabia

Good morning ATS,

So apparently last wednesday night (the night before King Abdullah died) the German national security council held a "secret meeting at short notice" and decided to stop exporting anymore arms to Saudi Arabia - effective immediately.

The government statement says: The Kingdom is -too unstable- for it to be receiving any more deliveries of "heavy high-tech weaponry suitable for war or counter-insurgency.

This is a good thing IMO (well, aside of all economical interest...) because we've already seen some of those weapons *magically appear* in the hands of AQ and ISIS all over the ME and Africa... and it is somewhat irritating (to say the least) when NATO soldiers suddenly have to face their own gear.

What startles me is the timing... WHY now?
What changed with King Abdullah's death? Isn't the new King Salman supposed to be just like the old King?
With arms deals worth € 427 million since 2013, Saudi Arabia was a major customer of the German defence industry... meaning that this decision will have a profound economical impact and was certainly not taken lightly.
The "difficult human rights situation" in Saudi Arabia is nothing new either... so what changed?

IMO, something is up. Eyes on Saudi Arabia!

Sources:
- Tagesschau (German)
- Reuters (English)

a reply to: ColCurious

I'd be much more focused on watching Germany if I was you. When ww3 officially kicks off I wouldn't be surprised if they're the enemy of the West...again.

S+F for this Col
I wondered about that myself already what might have changed so much that the deal is on withhold at the moment.


@Marx: ugh.. germanophobia at it's best

Saudia Arabia has the 4th largest defence budget in the world and it's expected to keep rising. If the Germans won't sell them anything, Americans French British Chinese and Russians will. I don't even think Saudi Arabia has a lot of German equipment unless you count the eurofighter typhoon

Edit: they also use Licensed HK G3 rifles as standard issue

The kingdom is at risk of a scrap breaking out for the throne I think.....Salaman isn't that young or in good health I heard....
The House of Saud may be toppled under the right circumstances.....
Or maybe the Germans know something we don't yet?

originally posted by: stirling
The kingdom is at risk of a scrap breaking out for the throne I think.....Salaman isn't that young or in good health I heard....
The House of Saud may be toppled under the right circumstances.....
Or maybe the Germans know something we don't yet?

Isis was in the news very recently... They want Mecca and they want it bad. Thanks for pointing the "toppling" bit out, it's a giant elephant in the Saudi room i bet

originally posted by: Mehmet666Heineken
Saudia Arabia has the 4th largest defence budget in the world and it's expected to keep rising. If the Germans won't sell them anything, Americans French British Chinese and Russians will. I don't even think Saudi Arabia has a lot of German equipment unless you count the eurofighter typhoon

Edit: they also use Licensed HK G3 rifles as standard issue

There are plenty of german weapons in Saudi Arabia:
Smallarms (H&K G3, MP's, MG3), Mortars, Anti Tank Rockets and delivery systems, Spähpanzer Fuchs, Eurofighter Typhoon and Leopard 2A6 Tanks (yeah, they were delivered by Spain, but these are german tanks ). Germany provided personal equipment for soldiers too (like protective vests and Anti-Hazard gear).
Saudi Arabia signaled interest in the Boxer, Fennek, Tiger Helicopter and Dingo too.
I guess they are somewhat fans of german military equipment...

originally posted by: Talliostro

originally posted by: Mehmet666Heineken
Saudia Arabia has the 4th largest defence budget in the world and it's expected to keep rising. If the Germans won't sell them anything, Americans French British Chinese and Russians will. I don't even think Saudi Arabia has a lot of German equipment unless you count the eurofighter typhoon

Edit: they also use Licensed HK G3 rifles as standard issue

There are plenty of german weapons in Saudi Arabia:
Smallarms (H&K G3, MP's, MG3), Mortars, Anti Tank Rockets and delivery systems, Spähpanzer Fuchs, Eurofighter Typhoon and Leopard 2A6 Tanks (yeah, they were delivered by Spain, but these are german tanks

). Germany provided personal equipment for soldiers too (like protective vests and Ant-Hazard gear).
Saudi Arabia signaled interest in the Boxer, Fennek, Tiger Helicopter and Dingo too.
I guess they are somewhat fans of german military equipment...

Thanks for the info

a reply to: Mehmet666Heineken

I came to the conclusion a long time ago that Saudi Arabia's "defence" spending is in fact just one huge money laundering operation. Along the way, military corporations, politicians, middlemen and of course the Suadi "royals" are skimming and taking kickbacks. It's a deal to spread the oil wealth that the Saudis are allowed to run by their western "Allies".

I mean, lets face it, if someone threatened to invade SA, our own governments would be right in there to protect the investment and oil for them. Thus, they don't need the vast amount of arms and aircraft they have been buying over the last 2 - 3 decades. It always puzzled me whey the bought so much, until I figured it out. That of course was also the reason Tony Blair stepped in and quashed the Serious Fraud Office investigation into BAE and it's Saudi arms deals. Too many people in very high places making too much money for it to ever be allowed to proceed.

originally posted by: Britguy
a reply to: Mehmet666Heineken

I came to the conclusion a long time ago that Saudi Arabia's "defence" spending is in fact just one huge money laundering operation. Along the way, military corporations, politicians, middlemen and of course the Suadi "royals" are skimming and taking kickbacks. It's a deal to spread the oil wealth that the Saudis are allowed to run by their western "Allies".

I mean, lets face it, if someone threatened to invade SA, our own governments would be right in there to protect the investment and oil for them. Thus, they don't need the vast amount of arms and aircraft they have been buying over the last 2 - 3 decades. It always puzzled me whey the bought so much, until I figured it out. That of course was also the reason Tony Blair stepped in and quashed the Serious Fraud Office investigation into BAE and it's Saudi arms deals. Too many people in very high places making too much money for it to ever be allowed to proceed.

I don't see why this theory shouldn't gain more traction, I've always felt there was something odd about some of the variables you pointed out as well and to me it makes a lot of sense. And you're right the whole world would show up to protect angelic ole Saudi Arabia...I'm sure you remember the gulf war. Also, the Pakistanis used to fly their aircraft during the wars with Israel. The Saudis were described as blundering and lazy.

When Mecca was besieged by terrorists in the late 70s I believe it was, they again used Pakistanis. A clear tradition of using mercenaries exists already.

a reply to: ColCurious

Surely its to do with the fact that ISIS has its eyes on Saudi especially because it hold Mecca and were ISIS to get that kingdom, the oil and Mecca they would indeed have an islamic state - however some there might be a little sick of it - especially that poor woman's family that was beheaded in the street the other day.

To send arms to some backward, nasty regime that behaves like that isn't sending arms to an allie its sending arms to a dinosaur state with wickedness at its heart. Where would saudi be were it not for oil - actually where it belongs?

originally posted by: Shiloh7
a reply to: ColCurious

Surely its to do with the fact that ISIS has its eyes on Saudi especially because it hold Mecca and were ISIS to get that kingdom, the oil and Mecca they would indeed have an islamic state - however some there might be a little sick of it - especially that poor woman's family that was beheaded in the street the other day.

To send arms to some backward, nasty regime that behaves like that isn't sending arms to an allie its sending arms to a dinosaur state with wickedness at its heart. Where would saudi be were it not for oil - actually where it belongs?

They were propped into power by the British before the discovery of oil even. All because of Europe's inability to accept the Ottomans. The Ottomans had wiped out the Wahhabist rebellions until Lawrence of Arabia came along re kindled hatred in their hearts. Those were the days when the Middle East was peaceful, Sudan and somalia were peaceful, and the Balkans had Zero Russian influence.

Here is the thing no one likes the current house saudi reguime.


But whats the alternative?

If they go democracy rainbows and unicorns wont take there place.

If they fall ISIS or a ISIS like group will take over.
They will control vast oil wealth and worse Mecca that will give there caliph some sort of legitamacy.


The middle east is not the west.
Its people are not yearning for American freedumb.

Behind these tyranical reguimes are half the time hiding even more evil insane extremists.
Remove the dictator and you dont get a happy free people but a extremist cluster#.

a reply to: ColCurious

Let the games begin. Who knows who the Saudi's are in with these days!!

originally posted by: crazyewok
Here is the thing no one likes the current house saudi reguime.


But whats the alternative?

If they go democracy rainbows and unicorns wont take there place.

If they fall ISIS or a ISIS like group will take over.
They will control vast oil wealth and worse Mecca that will give there caliph some sort of legitamacy.


The middle east is not the west.
Its people are not yearning for American freedumb.

Behind these tyranical reguimes are half the time hiding even more evil insane extremists.
Remove the dictator and you dont get a happy free people but a extremist cluster#.

I understand where you are coming from, and it's a perspective of sobriety and realism. However this can also be used as justification to tote the status quo. Gaddafi was toppled, was any thought put into who would replace him? That was a bad case obviously. Regime change "worked" in Iraq, in the sense that no one worse came to power. It worked in Afghanistan. It worked in Egypt when the western puppet Mubarak was replaced by the Muslim brotherhood and they ran the country for almost 3 years before being violently removed by a secular army guy. If we want to replace the Saudi monarchy, and keeping in mind it's the centre of Islam, there are millions of options that can be steered into power as Saudi Arabia is a very unique case. This will never happen though as the house of Saud is part of the new world order.

a reply to: ColCurious

I'm thinking Abdullah had some dirt on them that prohibited them from doing this sooner. Or he threatened oil cuts....either way good riddance to a terrible country.

a reply to: ColCurious

Maybe the new King isn't very friendly to the West. If's that the case, we'll probably see a US 'liberation' of the region just like what happened in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya.

The great wall of Saudi Arabia may have something to do with this, maybe even the oil price fall.
Great allies one day, worst enemies the day after.

Imho the money-laundering theory holds a lot of weight, but its root isn't the fact that western allies would protect their oil interests. In fact I'd say that the first one who would go bombing SA is their biggest ally, the USA. Why? Because if you can have for yourself those resources and decide how to control them it's far better than having some kind of contract of alliance.
Germany may be the first or the only nation to do this, maybe to upset USA in retaliation for the Snowden infos, or maybe acting as a scapegoat for the European dissent, but with total collusion by NATO. Too many "maybe".

We can be at the start of a Saudi Arabian's spring revolution or we can be at the start of a massive boost to ISIS capabilities to destabilize even more the ME. I still think Saudis are behind some of the financing of ISIS so the wall may be a sign that ISIS is not anymore under their control and could be used to remove the royals from power.

I think the situation is too complex to draw a conclusion, I can imagine at least 6 or 7 realistic scenarios some of which are the opposite of each other.

The cut off in German sales to the Saudi's is likely due to an expected shift in Saudi position against Israel. Germany tends not to sell weapons to enemies of Israel, and Saudi Arabia wasn't one. The new leader looks to bring a harder line against Israel...and that never goes over well in the West. It will take a few months to show itself, but the Saudi's will start calling out Israel and possibly even supplying it's enemies even more so that it already does.

originally posted by: noeltrotsky
The cut off in German sales to the Saudi's is likely due to an expected shift in Saudi position against Israel. Germany tends not to sell weapons to enemies of Israel, and Saudi Arabia wasn't one. The new leader looks to bring a harder line against Israel...and that never goes over well in the West. It will take a few months to show itself, but the Saudi's will start calling out Israel and possibly even supplying it's enemies even more so that it already does.

IMO this can only happen if Iran drastically changes its policies towards Israel. We must hedge our Saudi related theories with this in mind. The Iranians though surprisingly sent a high ranking figure to the king's funeral...not a cleric from the inner circles of power but still a high ranking public servant.