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originally posted by: Bilk22
I think we're on the same page. I just think it's very disingenuous by some here to paint a rosy picture of the economy. If anything, it's teetering on the razors edge and can fall precipitously should something rattle it in any way.
originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: Bilk22
There's no debating that the 8.5% value in the fourth quarter of 2007 (prior to the recession) is better than the 11.2% seen in December 2014. As I stated (and you quoted) in my post:
I'm not saying that the recovery has been anything to write home about — everyone is familiar with the shifts in the types of employment — but lets not cherry pick.
Which of the measures of unemployment do you think Mitt Romney was referring to in this statement from his campaign page:
"We project the unemployment rate to be about 5.9 percent by the end of his first term in office"
It's actually impossible to tell but I think we can safely assume it was something middle of the road like the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate the BLS puts on the first page of unemployment statistics. In either case, Obama didn't actually meet the Romney promise (not in his first term) but then again we don't know what the numbers would have been under Romney either.
Some what to cite the stock market as a measure of success. It's a false measure of success and rather a measure of uncertainty as investors have no confidence of placing their investments in anything else. It also shows how week the rest of the global economies truly are. The US is actually considered a safe haven, comparatively. So the US broad markets moved up significantly, but this is going to change with the Fed abandoning QE.
originally posted by: St Udio
a reply to: neo96
see: ..Indigo5 stated:
"Mitt Romney promised by the end of his first term (December 2016) he would achieve... )
~~ reality being that IF Romney were elected back in his nomination cycle... his 1st term would have ended in 2012 !!!!
not 2016, as your spin wrongfully tells us
thanks for the balancing list of items there, Mr. neo96
So do you think this is a healthy economy or an economy living on the edge? Do you see growth or numbers that just pay the bills? Can you hire more people because your business is growing? And how confident do you feel things will support new hires in the future?
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: Bilk22
I think we're on the same page. I just think it's very disingenuous by some here to paint a rosy picture of the economy. If anything, it's teetering on the razors edge and can fall precipitously should something rattle it in any way.
originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: Bilk22
There's no debating that the 8.5% value in the fourth quarter of 2007 (prior to the recession) is better than the 11.2% seen in December 2014. As I stated (and you quoted) in my post:
I'm not saying that the recovery has been anything to write home about — everyone is familiar with the shifts in the types of employment — but lets not cherry pick.
Which of the measures of unemployment do you think Mitt Romney was referring to in this statement from his campaign page:
"We project the unemployment rate to be about 5.9 percent by the end of his first term in office"
It's actually impossible to tell but I think we can safely assume it was something middle of the road like the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate the BLS puts on the first page of unemployment statistics. In either case, Obama didn't actually meet the Romney promise (not in his first term) but then again we don't know what the numbers would have been under Romney either.
Some what to cite the stock market as a measure of success. It's a false measure of success and rather a measure of uncertainty as investors have no confidence of placing their investments in anything else. It also shows how week the rest of the global economies truly are. The US is actually considered a safe haven, comparatively. So the US broad markets moved up significantly, but this is going to change with the Fed abandoning QE.
Look, I own a small business and my wife works. If the economy wasn't improving or had improved, she wouldn't have a job and I wouldn't have any clients. I don't really care about the numbers being posted, some of them can be twisted to fit any agenda. The real world economy is what I look at. When it's down, crime goes up in my community, houses foreclose, I don't make any money in my business, and my wife doesn't work. It's really that simple.
The truth is that the economy tanked under Bush, perhaps not even his fault, since it was a global recession and it's improved under Obama. That's truth, right there brother. I'm living proof.
The Obama Economy
originally posted by: Bilk22
So do you think this is a healthy economy or an economy living on the edge? Do you see growth or numbers that just pay the bills? Can you hire more people because your business is growing? And how confident do you feel things will support new hires in the future?
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: Bilk22
I think we're on the same page. I just think it's very disingenuous by some here to paint a rosy picture of the economy. If anything, it's teetering on the razors edge and can fall precipitously should something rattle it in any way.
originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: Bilk22
There's no debating that the 8.5% value in the fourth quarter of 2007 (prior to the recession) is better than the 11.2% seen in December 2014. As I stated (and you quoted) in my post:
I'm not saying that the recovery has been anything to write home about — everyone is familiar with the shifts in the types of employment — but lets not cherry pick.
Which of the measures of unemployment do you think Mitt Romney was referring to in this statement from his campaign page:
"We project the unemployment rate to be about 5.9 percent by the end of his first term in office"
It's actually impossible to tell but I think we can safely assume it was something middle of the road like the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate the BLS puts on the first page of unemployment statistics. In either case, Obama didn't actually meet the Romney promise (not in his first term) but then again we don't know what the numbers would have been under Romney either.
Some what to cite the stock market as a measure of success. It's a false measure of success and rather a measure of uncertainty as investors have no confidence of placing their investments in anything else. It also shows how week the rest of the global economies truly are. The US is actually considered a safe haven, comparatively. So the US broad markets moved up significantly, but this is going to change with the Fed abandoning QE.
Look, I own a small business and my wife works. If the economy wasn't improving or had improved, she wouldn't have a job and I wouldn't have any clients. I don't really care about the numbers being posted, some of them can be twisted to fit any agenda. The real world economy is what I look at. When it's down, crime goes up in my community, houses foreclose, I don't make any money in my business, and my wife doesn't work. It's really that simple.
The truth is that the economy tanked under Bush, perhaps not even his fault, since it was a global recession and it's improved under Obama. That's truth, right there brother. I'm living proof.
originally posted by: Bilk22
You've proven you really have no idea what you're talking about. Here's pick the numbers that you believe sell your flawed argument the best.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
Do you know how to read a chart. I'll help. They read left to right and from bottom to top. The terminus at the right is where the red line I drew, meets the plotted data. That is pretty much at 11%. Hope that helps.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
This looks pretty real and the way the data is collected and the parameters haven't changed.
originally posted by: ISawItFirst
Any chart or graph that does not show its math on either side, is propaganda. They have changed the formula so many times no two pieces of data are apples to apples. There is no factual argument to be had here, it's all disinformation and zealotry.
????
Did you just drop a flat, arbitrary line across all three unemployment measures..Spanning 20 years...and declare it "Real" Unemployment?
Now you are just being funny? Or desperate?...I'll give you funny..
You do realize that chart is not some guy drawing lines? Like you did? There are actual formula's and data involved. Otherwise anyone could just draw lines?? can't believe I am explaining this? And spanning 20 years? You do realize the current President hasn't been in office for 20 years?
Table A-15
I don't disagree with McCain. Romney I think would have done much better, but for argument's sake I'll agree right now. So if you don't mind, point to exactly what Obama did to bolster the economy. List initiatives, etc.
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: Bilk22
So do you think this is a healthy economy or an economy living on the edge? Do you see growth or numbers that just pay the bills? Can you hire more people because your business is growing? And how confident do you feel things will support new hires in the future?
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: Bilk22
I think we're on the same page. I just think it's very disingenuous by some here to paint a rosy picture of the economy. If anything, it's teetering on the razors edge and can fall precipitously should something rattle it in any way.
originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: Bilk22
There's no debating that the 8.5% value in the fourth quarter of 2007 (prior to the recession) is better than the 11.2% seen in December 2014. As I stated (and you quoted) in my post:
I'm not saying that the recovery has been anything to write home about — everyone is familiar with the shifts in the types of employment — but lets not cherry pick.
Which of the measures of unemployment do you think Mitt Romney was referring to in this statement from his campaign page:
"We project the unemployment rate to be about 5.9 percent by the end of his first term in office"
It's actually impossible to tell but I think we can safely assume it was something middle of the road like the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate the BLS puts on the first page of unemployment statistics. In either case, Obama didn't actually meet the Romney promise (not in his first term) but then again we don't know what the numbers would have been under Romney either.
Some what to cite the stock market as a measure of success. It's a false measure of success and rather a measure of uncertainty as investors have no confidence of placing their investments in anything else. It also shows how week the rest of the global economies truly are. The US is actually considered a safe haven, comparatively. So the US broad markets moved up significantly, but this is going to change with the Fed abandoning QE.
Look, I own a small business and my wife works. If the economy wasn't improving or had improved, she wouldn't have a job and I wouldn't have any clients. I don't really care about the numbers being posted, some of them can be twisted to fit any agenda. The real world economy is what I look at. When it's down, crime goes up in my community, houses foreclose, I don't make any money in my business, and my wife doesn't work. It's really that simple.
The truth is that the economy tanked under Bush, perhaps not even his fault, since it was a global recession and it's improved under Obama. That's truth, right there brother. I'm living proof.
It's not great but it shows steady growth, by the numbers. My clients are still coming in and my forecast for this year is pretty good. I could hire someone this year if my sales increase. Again, it's not a great economy, but part of that is out of Americans' control...such as how does Russia's economy effect ours this year, will the reduction in Fracking profits effect job growth this year? I'm in Vegas as well,...all that means is that when the national economy is down overall so goes Vegas as it's got a high percentage of Tourism Jobs...Vegas is doing really well right now. That's another key indicator, that can't be twisted to fit either a left, right or other type of Agenda.
All this means is...under Obama, the economy improved from a devestating recession that he did not cause. He did really well with the Economy. I don't think either McCain or Romney could have done as well and those were the alternative choices. That's just truth right there. What happens this year is a mystery..of course...that's in the future. Right now life is good.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
You've proven you really have no idea what you're talking about. Here's pick the numbers that you believe sell your flawed argument the best.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
Do you know how to read a chart. I'll help. They read left to right and from bottom to top. The terminus at the right is where the red line I drew, meets the plotted data. That is pretty much at 11%. Hope that helps.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
This looks pretty real and the way the data is collected and the parameters haven't changed.
originally posted by: ISawItFirst
Any chart or graph that does not show its math on either side, is propaganda. They have changed the formula so many times no two pieces of data are apples to apples. There is no factual argument to be had here, it's all disinformation and zealotry.
????
Did you just drop a flat, arbitrary line across all three unemployment measures..Spanning 20 years...and declare it "Real" Unemployment?
Now you are just being funny? Or desperate?...I'll give you funny..
You do realize that chart is not some guy drawing lines? Like you did? There are actual formula's and data involved. Otherwise anyone could just draw lines?? can't believe I am explaining this? And spanning 20 years? You do realize the current President hasn't been in office for 20 years?
Table A-15
You keep scrounging around for some different measure to suit your ideological needs and every new link actually supports my OP.
At first I thought you were kidding, but I am now thinking you don't know what you are looking at?
Your link above shows U1,U2,U3,U4,U5 and U6 unemployment...and your own link shows ALL of them falling (getting lower)...which is good with an unemployment measure BTW.
Agree that neither party is or has done a thing to help. We gave all that money to the banks to save their azzes and they have held it back. They've instead put it at risk again rather than putting into the economy.
originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: Bilk22
I don't see circumstances improving significantly in the long-term regardless of who is in political power. Not only are both parties lacking viable strategies — I've yet to see any (outward) evidence that the economic policy makers within either party have any intention of addressing the actual issues. In my opinion, the conversation should be focusing on global wage equalization and the shift from labor income to capital income.
originally posted by: Bilk22
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
You've proven you really have no idea what you're talking about. Here's pick the numbers that you believe sell your flawed argument the best.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
Do you know how to read a chart. I'll help. They read left to right and from bottom to top. The terminus at the right is where the red line I drew, meets the plotted data. That is pretty much at 11%. Hope that helps.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
This looks pretty real and the way the data is collected and the parameters haven't changed.
originally posted by: ISawItFirst
Any chart or graph that does not show its math on either side, is propaganda. They have changed the formula so many times no two pieces of data are apples to apples. There is no factual argument to be had here, it's all disinformation and zealotry.
????
Did you just drop a flat, arbitrary line across all three unemployment measures..Spanning 20 years...and declare it "Real" Unemployment?
Now you are just being funny? Or desperate?...I'll give you funny..
You do realize that chart is not some guy drawing lines? Like you did? There are actual formula's and data involved. Otherwise anyone could just draw lines?? can't believe I am explaining this? And spanning 20 years? You do realize the current President hasn't been in office for 20 years?
Table A-15
You keep scrounging around for some different measure to suit your ideological needs and every new link actually supports my OP.
At first I thought you were kidding, but I am now thinking you don't know what you are looking at?
Your link above shows U1,U2,U3,U4,U5 and U6 unemployment...and your own link shows ALL of them falling (getting lower)...which is good with an unemployment measure BTW.
If they weren't falling, as you put it, we'd really be screwed. I posted the government data so you could cherry pick what you like. They also explain what each metric measures so you have an understanding.
originally posted by: Bilk22
I see your chart and raise you
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: SpaDe_
As far as taking credit for the GDP increase, why don't we wait for January 30 when the 4th quarter numbers get released before we get all excited about the "growth".
Right..wait for January numbers before declaring a trend! Ignore the last 60 months! The GOP CHEERING FOR THE US ECONOMY TO FAIL
Link
You can make all the claims you want, but they don't change the hard data. If you're happy that the unemployment rate went down based on low wage jobs, well good for you.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
You've proven you really have no idea what you're talking about. Here's pick the numbers that you believe sell your flawed argument the best.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
Do you know how to read a chart. I'll help. They read left to right and from bottom to top. The terminus at the right is where the red line I drew, meets the plotted data. That is pretty much at 11%. Hope that helps.
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: Bilk22
This looks pretty real and the way the data is collected and the parameters haven't changed.
originally posted by: ISawItFirst
Any chart or graph that does not show its math on either side, is propaganda. They have changed the formula so many times no two pieces of data are apples to apples. There is no factual argument to be had here, it's all disinformation and zealotry.
????
Did you just drop a flat, arbitrary line across all three unemployment measures..Spanning 20 years...and declare it "Real" Unemployment?
Now you are just being funny? Or desperate?...I'll give you funny..
You do realize that chart is not some guy drawing lines? Like you did? There are actual formula's and data involved. Otherwise anyone could just draw lines?? can't believe I am explaining this? And spanning 20 years? You do realize the current President hasn't been in office for 20 years?
Table A-15
You keep scrounging around for some different measure to suit your ideological needs and every new link actually supports my OP.
At first I thought you were kidding, but I am now thinking you don't know what you are looking at?
Your link above shows U1,U2,U3,U4,U5 and U6 unemployment...and your own link shows ALL of them falling (getting lower)...which is good with an unemployment measure BTW.
If they weren't falling, as you put it, we'd really be screwed. I posted the government data so you could cherry pick what you like. They also explain what each metric measures so you have an understanding.
No offense, but I don't think you understand the phrase "Cherry Pick"...unemployment has fallen significantly by every single (ever desperately changing) metric you have provided. No "cherry picking" required....to the extent where you have demonstrated that there are no cherries left amongst the data for you yourself to pick, as you have tried repeatedly on this thread only to further the truth...wait for it...unemployment is down and more so than even the GOP Candidates of 2012 had promised to deliver. That is just the truth of it.
I know exactly what it "counts". It is meaningful information to know how many people are taking jobs below their skill level just to help stay afloat. It also "counts" people who have been discouraged from finding meaningful employment. You don't think that's relevant information to judge whether or not the economy is healthy? You don't think it's a better metric than simply saying "x" about of jobs were "gained", not knowing if they're real jobs that pay mortgages, pay for big ticket items such as cars and still allow people to save? You just want to know that Bob, who used to work at XYZ as a manager is now working at Home Depot stocking shelves for 29.5 hrs/ week and he's two months behind on his mortgage payments? Is that all you need to know?
originally posted by: buster2010
originally posted by: Bilk22
I see your chart and raise you
originally posted by: Indigo5
originally posted by: SpaDe_
As far as taking credit for the GDP increase, why don't we wait for January 30 when the 4th quarter numbers get released before we get all excited about the "growth".
Right..wait for January numbers before declaring a trend! Ignore the last 60 months! The GOP CHEERING FOR THE US ECONOMY TO FAIL
Link
You are not using a very honest chart to show the actual unemployment in this country. This is a U6 chart do you know what a U6 chart is? It counts part time workers as unemployed.
This augments U5 by including part-time workers to the unemployment rate calculation. The addition of part-time workers adds a full 2-3 percentage points to the official unemployment rate. This measure of unemployment is perhaps the most comprehensive measure of labor resource unemployment available. - See more at: portalseven.com...
Unemployed means you do not have a job. If you are working part time then you have a job and you are not unemployed.
originally posted by: KawRider9
a reply to: amazing
I'm happy you're doing well but you are far from the majority!
I own a small business and my wife works as well. Things are not as rosy as you paint them.
Every business owner I know is struggling trying to stay alive. The regulations this administration has put on small businesses is crippling. I wont bother you with all the places that have shut down or are laying people off in mass numbers, but it's eye opening and not a regional thing. Union workers and non union workers have taken a huge blow across the Nation. If you honestly think things are going good, you must be only focusing on you immediate area.
I'm no fan of Obama, just like I'm no fan of the last few administrations, but I can tell you this, we're in for major trouble if things don't change and fast.
I've planned on creating a thread on the costs of doing business, the rules and regulations I have to comply with and the apathy/entitlement attitudes of the average worker. I'll start working on that thread tonight, as to not derail this one.
Again, I'm happy you're doing well, but you are a rarity!