French Islamic Terrorist Hostage Situation a Diversion for something else?

a reply to: AgentSmith

So because one guy succeeded using this strategy then that gives it the stamp of approval as a legit tactic? Or that better tactics that make more sense shouldn't be used?

originally posted by: TrueBrit
a reply to: Vasa Croe

If these attacks are anything other than cowardly attacks on freedom, then I would say that they resemble an attempt to test response scale and time, relative to the threat being presented. This could offer another cell, the intel they would need to pull something bigger off, using the information to establish where resources will be bought to bear against them, and what sort they might be.

If there is a next time, the police could find themselves walking into traps mob handed, having exposed their play book to scrutiny during the response to these attacks. That said, these attacks are serious enough in and of themselves to easily be considered the end point, rather than a means to an end.

I thought about that as well. Could be a very precise way of figuring out police movement....either from news reports, police scanners or people on the ground, or a combination of them.

The main reason I am thinking this is a lead up to another larger attack is because suddenly two parties became involved, almost as if to pull and divert attention away from something else. Create 2 situations where a LOT of the police force will respond in different areas and you leave a LOT of holes for things to slip through.

originally posted by: Vasa Croe

Terrorists have proven time and again that they don't fight conventionally. If, as another poster pointed out, this is in relation to the nuclear sites, that could be a big problem.

You are the one who brought up the point about flanking in wars. I was just countering that point with the more logical approach that a military officer would use given the situation.

Either way, this is strictly a thought on what could be going on....not trying to rationalize the terrorist mind.

I know. I didn't say you were wrong. I just fail to see how it makes sense.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: AgentSmith

So because one guy succeeded using this strategy then that gives it the stamp of approval as a legit tactic? Or that better tactics that make more sense shouldn't be used?

No, but it does prove it works.

What concerns me is that the 2 killers, when they stole a car, they said to the owner of the car "If the media ask you questions, tell them we're al qaeda Yemen". So, it wouldn't surprise me if in a not far away future Yemen was sentenced with 'freedom and democracy'. After that, the owner of the car said "Can I take my dog in the back of the car ?". He took his dog and the killers left.

Distraction

Distraactions are used all the time, all over the world since the dawn of man. Distractions work. From warfare, crime to magic.

But yeah false flags usualy are distractions.

a reply to: Vasa Croe

Many things work that shouldn't. That is why there are odds of success. Just because something works once doesn't mean it is a good idea. Remember during the Mandela funeral when some crazy guy snuck into the event and pretended to be a translator for President Obama? The odds of success for such an idea are ridiculously low, but it worked. So now that we have evidence that such an idea happened, would you yourself attempt such a feat? Would you consider it a good idea?

I was both stunned and impressed with this action by the implicated. Two attacks, damned near simultaneously? Fear, on a local scale, geared towards every man.

Whereas the twin towers was an attack supposedly against the US, it truly was more an attack (if it actually was that, an opposing group of ideologists attacking another, as we've been told) against capitolism.

What is happening as we speak, is a finely tuned "it could happen to YOU" attack.

I have been surprised ever since the late 80's as a teen that we here in America did not experience more of this kind of attack. An immigrant, with intention, grabs a job as a maintenance worker at Mall of America (remember, these were the days that the Mall was ore of a place to commune than the church was). A maintenance job with the access to get to the boiler room. Or what about an attack on Black Friday? Superbowl?

That's how you kick America in the nuts. Make us afraid to sheepishly and with the adroitness of a zombie actively partake in our one true liberty. The liberty to spend in an obscene fashion. Or, to attack our holiest of shrines...the Superbowl.

I can see a day, within the next 10 years, we receive an attack on American soil orchestrated by someone (foreign, or domestic) who wants to make said nuts shrivel up into our ribcage. Something that will truly scare the piss out of every American.

I can also see a day, within the next 15 or so years, where a full 180 turn to full blown xenophobia takes hold. At least one purported by the American gov't or not (because, you know, they don't occasionally open our borders to things that would scare the holy f&ck out of us if we knew). Where those of possible origin involving the Islamic ideology. Not a differentiation between the blatantly violent portion of Islam and the relatively peaceful folks (yepp, met them, hugged them) when they are booted out of our countries, and done so with loud aplomb from the populace.


Then, we are truly screwed.



-NF



P.S. - I'm often showing a rare modicum of reserve when espousing the idea that we could have been attacked in a sincere fashion by now. And particularly so when it comes to the ideas I've hypothesized. I fully anticipate that certain alphabet organizations have files on me, as they do with a lot of us here...but, this scenario in France? This one put my eyebrow up at an angle.

Soft targets. This was warned about. Lone Wolf attacks...this has been warned about. This is the next step in a larger scale attack.

With 9/11 and other plots, you had 15-20 people involved. Here, it is 2-4 man/woman cells that are acting on ideology and not necessary orders. Following an idea for a common goal.

Diversion and distraction are used in many forms of warfare. Look here and not there. Follow this lead and allow something else to happen. The fear should be secondary attacks from other 'teams'. Get 100's of officers in one area and have a truck roll up and 'BOOM'. Mass casualty.

The US has been lucky till now. There have been thwarted attempts at college football games that disappeared in the news as well as multiple attacks that were watched and ended by DHS/FBI. It was not long ago Boston was shutdown due to a soft target attack. Why attack mlitary installations or heavily guarded areas? Common sense tell you to go somewhere weapons are banned and open fire. It is a matter of time till a WalMart or school sporting event is hit in the US.

There is no need for a false flag anymore. If your government wants to do something, they simply do it...

originally posted by: Dabrazzo
Distraction

Distraactions are used all the time, all over the world since the dawn of man. Distractions work. From warfare, crime to magic.

But yeah false flags usualy are distractions.

Correct, but what is the evidence that THIS is a distraction? That's the point myself and others are making. It's failed logic to assume that this is just because others have been in the past. You have to have reasons to come to conclusions. If not, it's irrational.

I just read an interesting article on debka, www.debka.com... , it says its possible these guys are double agents, "In terms of logistics, the perpetrators would have had to get hold of Kalachnikov assault rifles, ammunition belts, bullet-proof vests, gloves, balaclavas and masks, as well as a vehicle for arrival and getaway from the scene of the slaughter.
All these arrangements point to a complex, well-oiled support network, with experience in combat, terror, logistics, intelligence and communications.operations." Could this be a diversion, definitely or its being used to sway the hearts and minds of citizens to support an even bigger war.

I can see your rational with this, and I was thinking the same

However.

I am not too sure these attacks were meant to be co-ordinated in the same way as the 2008 Mumbi attacks, rather I think it could be that one attack inspired the other.

So the three guys attacks the Journalists and go on the run, another couple of radical Islamic see this, recognise that they have the ability to stir the waters and make life even more difficult for the security services and they then go out and shoot a police officer and also go on the run. In doing so they have made life very difficult for the French Security Services who have been forced to split their resources and it confuses the investigation and the two man hunts.

Then again, they see that the two brothers have taken a hostage, so they also take hostages, again having the same effect of causing panic, confusing the investigation and splitting the attention of the Police.

Now i could be totally wrong, its just a guess based off what i have been reading in the press that makes me think these are two different groups.

originally posted by: NOTurTypical

originally posted by: Dabrazzo
Distraction

Distraactions are used all the time, all over the world since the dawn of man. Distractions work. From warfare, crime to magic.

But yeah false flags usualy are distractions.

Correct, but what is the evidence that THIS is a distraction? That's the point myself and others are making. It's failed logic to assume that this is just because others have been in the past. You have to have reasons to come to conclusions. If not, it's irrational.

How is it failed logic to assume another attack is possible and these are distractions? Because it hasn't happened? It has in the past and likely will again in the future. Reasons would be because it has happened, outside of that, unless I had inside knowledge of it, what reason would I have to suggest it?

Is it irrational to think that a dog will come to you if you have a treat in your hand simply because you have seen other dogs do it, but have not seen this one? Or is it rational to think that maybe this dog might come if I have a treat in my hand based off of having seen other dogs do it before?

a reply to: NOTurTypical

You do realise what forum your posting in right? and that people are perfectly well within their right to speculate on any number of things. Im surprised someone with more than 20,000 post has not by now cracked onto that.

This isnt some scientificaly driven experiment, this is a hypothetical discussion, you can either engage in the discussion or not, up to you I suppose.

It's failed logic to assume that this is just because others have been in the past

Is it though?

Probability

Probability is used to quantify an attitude of mind towards some proposition of whose truth we are not certain

Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and in trade on financial markets. Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation, where it is called pathway analysis. A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread Middle East conflict on oil prices—which have ripple effects in the economy as a whole

a reply to: Cobaltic1978
adding to your comment:

He cited former French Interior Minister and current Prime Minister Manuel Valls as saying in 2013, “I cannot as a minister of interior prevent the French jihadists from going to Syria to fulfill their jihad.”

“The French Minister of Foreign Affairs [Laurent] Fabius said something worse in 2012. He said that the Islamist jihadists are doing well in Syria,” according to the Syrian official.

“Now they call them terrorists because today they are killing French people. But when they used to kill Syrian people, they were considered jihadist.”

source

originally posted by: CottonwoodStormy
I just read an interesting article on debka, www.debka.com... , it says its possible these guys are double agents, "In terms of logistics, the perpetrators would have had to get hold of Kalachnikov assault rifles, ammunition belts, bullet-proof vests, gloves, balaclavas and masks, as well as a vehicle for arrival and getaway from the scene of the slaughter.
All these arrangements point to a complex, well-oiled support network, with experience in combat, terror, logistics, intelligence and communications.operations." Could this be a diversion, definitely or its being used to sway the hearts and minds of citizens to support an even bigger war.

It's an activated terror cell. That type of planning and funding is common. And France is a "soft target".

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
I fail to see the rationale behind putting the authorities on high alert as a precursor to getting away with something. Most criminals wait until the authorities aren't paying attention to make their moves.

Actually terrorists have done this tactic a few times to some extent....I forget which attack it was but they stood outside a building or barracks and tossed 2 grenades...then everyone went to the window and the detonated the big one....the majority of the people died from glass because they were looking to see what was outside.

There is another one where they do this and as emergency services show they detonate the bigger bomb.

I used to be able to name each one of the top of my head but there are so many know I can't remember em all :/

a reply to: Dabrazzo

You do realise what forum your posting in right? and that people are perfectly well within their right to speculate on any number of things. Im surprised someone with more than 20,000 post has not by now cracked onto that.

The rules of logic don't change because of the forum one posts in, they are concrete. Arbitrariness is still irrational. Arbitrary means "unsupported".

Is it though?

Yes, it is:

Slippery Slope Fallacy

a reply to: NOTurTypical

What exactly are you hoping to achive?

Would you like everyone to stop having a conversation because you feel it is without merit?

a reply to: nonspecific

Seems to be one of the thread derailment people.