Plunging oil prices and the ww3 connection

originally posted by: Iwinder
a reply to: mbkennel

The US dollar is kept 'up' on the strength of its economy, interest rates, and most of all the deepest bond market on the planet. The money trade (investment) is much larger than the oil trade.

First off if you have not noticed the "Economy" is in the toilet and down the drain.....(Worst Black Friday for sales in History)

research.stlouisfed.org...

originally posted by: mbkennel

originally posted by: Iwinder
a reply to: mbkennel

The US dollar is kept 'up' on the strength of its economy, interest rates, and most of all the deepest bond market on the planet. The money trade (investment) is much larger than the oil trade.

First off if you have not noticed the "Economy" is in the toilet and down the drain.....(Worst Black Friday for sales in History)

research.stlouisfed.org...

Thanks for the link you kindly proffered now whom does that graph represent? The average Joe or the investment banker?
What if we removed the military funding from the equation then what kind of a Graph would we see then?
Regards, Iwinder

a reply to: mbkennel

Wait till this kicks in...

American state GDP linked to shale production

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released figures suggesting a strong link between shale energy production and an increase in gross domestic product per capita across the United States.

Figures relating to the period 2003 – 2013 show that 8 out of 13 energy producing states, in that their production exceeds consumption, improved their relative GDP. Whilst the 10 states with the largest energy deficits at the time of the study in 2003 have all failed to improve their GDP relative to other states and have instead fallen back compared to those with smaller energy deficits.

Source

originally posted by: Iwinder

originally posted by: mbkennel

originally posted by: Iwinder
a reply to: mbkennel

The US dollar is kept 'up' on the strength of its economy, interest rates, and most of all the deepest bond market on the planet. The money trade (investment) is much larger than the oil trade.

First off if you have not noticed the "Economy" is in the toilet and down the drain.....(Worst Black Friday for sales in History)

research.stlouisfed.org...

Thanks for the link you kindly proffered now whom does that graph represent? The average Joe or the investment banker?
What if we removed the military funding from the equation then what kind of a Graph would we see then?
Regards, Iwinder

About four percent less. Military spending is about 4% of GDP.

The energy-related sector in USA is about 5.9% of GDP. This is an expansive description of the industry, substantially larger than domestic oil and gas exploration and production. (includes refining distribution, biomass, coal, alternative, etc).

a reply to: mbkennel
Interesting information and thanks very much for explaining it for me.
I can tell you that right at this moment the energy sector in Canada is going into shock mode.
First to die will be the "Tar Sands" and personally I won't shed a tear but I do feel for the folks that are being let go as I tap away here on the keyboard.
Fracking is next and in my opinion not soon enough after that major screw up in California and hardly a word about it on the news sites.
Here is a link to that Fiasco ..........www.abovetopsecret.com...

I also see today that the US debt is now over 18 Trillion dollars.....bad vibes on that one too.
Regards, Iwinder

The "New American Century" is starting to look pretty bleak.

When US oil companies start to go broke, that will lead to a crash in debt-backed securities. While you may save a few dollars at the pump, the government/banks will be dipping into your savings to bail out the oil sector.

originally posted by: Iwinder
First to die will be the "Tar Sands" and personally I won't shed a tear but I do feel for the folks that are being let go as I tap away here on the keyboard.

Incorrect.

Shale will go before oil sands.

Oil sands have a marginally lower break price, and the mining setups (vs the in-situ's) can continue to operate long after their original play is finished.

originally posted by: avatar01
The "New American Century" is starting to look pretty bleak.

When US oil companies start to go broke, that will lead to a crash in debt-backed securities. While you may save a few dollars at the pump, the government/banks will be dipping into your savings to bail out the oil sector.

Relax, it's nothing to worry about.

Just explore this board and be comforted by the fact that Russia is the target of this Saudi play...

/sarcasm.

originally posted by: Iwinder
I also see today that the US debt is now over 18 Trillion dollars.....bad vibes on that one too.
Regards, Iwinder

Might be bad vibes, but the rest of the world still thinks it's a good deal and lends long-term to US Treasury at 2.5%.

What's the rate on long-term Rouble debt? The rate includes credit risk and inflation or devaluation risk and is the collective judgement of people who put their money where their mouth is.

The Russia Government Bond 10Y increased to 12.92 percent in December from 10.61 percent in November of 2014.

www.tradingeconomics.com...

originally posted by: avatar01
The "New American Century" is starting to look pretty bleak.

When US oil companies start to go broke, that will lead to a crash in debt-backed securities. While you may save a few dollars at the pump, the government/banks will be dipping into your savings to bail out the oil sector.

Doom porn.

ExxonMobil has 2024 bonds with a Yield to Maturity of 2.83%, barely above U.S. Treasury. There's no evidence of remote, much less imminent, debt default.

quicktake.morningstar.com...

Sure, lower prices will reduce profitability. That's very far from threatening sector-wide default. Oil majors are much less levered than the banks, and small high-risk oil juniors don't have enough power for free government bailouts.

ExxonMobil has a debt to equity ratio of 10.8% to 89.2%. Basically 1 to 9 debt to equity.

By contrast, pre crisis the banks were levered (not quite the same measure) liabilities to equity of 20 to 1 debt to equity, and are now whinging as the Fed tries to get them to 7:1. Bank's assets were mostly some other chump's promise to pay. Exxon's assets are petroleum and valuable equipment.


PDVSA of Venezuela, sure---but they've been fracked for a long time now.

originally posted by: peck420

originally posted by: Iwinder
First to die will be the "Tar Sands" and personally I won't shed a tear but I do feel for the folks that are being let go as I tap away here on the keyboard.

Incorrect.

Shale will go before oil sands.

Oil sands have a marginally lower break price, and the mining setups (vs the in-situ's) can continue to operate long after their original play is finished.

Thanks for the correction, well from what you state it's almost a tie game.......I still hope they both lose and soon too.
Regards, Iwinder
star

originally posted by: Iwinder
The money trade (investment) is much loved by people whom have good paying jobs and some cash to spare. We are talking about the 1% now and not the economy at all.

I have another proposal for you. Our economy has changed, it is no longer an economy for all instead it is an economy for the 1% or on a generous day the 10%. How many small businesses now run their business by catering to those with lots of money? Extra customer service, premium items, only the wealthy can have this or that, high end merchandise, boutiques, premium organic food, special internet fast lanes, and so on.

Somewhere along the way we decided that it was ok for us to build an economy that excludes 90-99% of us and allows only those at the top to obtain goods and spend money. Everyone else can make do with the scraps.

originally posted by: avatar01
The "New American Century" is starting to look pretty bleak.

When US oil companies start to go broke, that will lead to a crash in debt-backed securities. While you may save a few dollars at the pump, the government/banks will be dipping into your savings to bail out the oil sector.

So your argument is that the oil companies are entitled to a profit? Isn't that the whole problem with the health care bill? That we decided people must buy from them at whatever prices they dictate? If the oil companies are unwilling to compete then maybe they should look into a new business model? Besides that, in how many out of the last 40 quarters (10 years) have they posted record profits? I have no sympathy.

Now, that said I want to share my energy policy. If I were president this is what I would do.

#1 Invest massively into geothermal energy. The US has some of the best geothermal reserves on the planet. We have the Northwest which is so abundant we have Yellowstone, and we're right along the Ring of Fire in the Pacific. We can supply a HUGE amount of energy with the potential we have here. It is proven technology, it is cheap, it is safe, it is renewable, and it is clean.

#2 Build more nuclear plants. Begin with generation 4 Uranium/Plutonium plants and pump research money into Thorium. Create a 25 year plan to develop and phase in Thorium reactors. Set aside locations and funding to store additional nuclear waste for 100 years. Properly fund NASA so that we have space elvators in 50 years and can safely ship the waste off the planet without risking rocket launches.

#3 End fracking. It does way too much damage and costs way too much.

#4 Return offshore drilling. Let it ramp up for the next 5 years and supply our oil needs. Set a timetable to phase it out (as well as all domestic drilling) in 30 to coincide with the full operation of our Thorium plants.

#5 Improve battery technology. Reduce our dependence on oil by improving the battery life of electric cars allowing the nuclear and geothermal energy to power our vehicles rather than gasoline.

a reply to: FlySolo

www.youtube.com...

Would be grateful if you could consider and perhaps download the above from youtube. I am lost on how to do such,
Plenty more about Oil being one of the pawns.........

The way I see it this OPEC bust is a huge faking W for the mighty USA. The spoils of multiple wars and years targeted foreign policy, support and subsidization of western oil, and geopolitical maneuvering over the past decades. A curb stomp to the ME, while we pivot to the USSR. Leaving Asia China, our half bagged soon to TPP'd parasite. BWDIK