Plunging oil prices and the ww3 connection

a reply to: thesmokingman

I doubt it. Once a company has set their prices they would never admit that they are reaping in more profit because of a drop in shipping or transportation savings. They will profit more and we will not see any benefit.

originally posted by: FlySolo
a reply to: MrSpad

OPEC went with the second.

Which is also a short term solution. When they drive up the prices again the shale producers will be back in business. Except this time there will be fewer of them allowing more market share for the thriving companies. Which is bad for OPEC as well. I don't think a merry-go-round of oil wars would be very prudent.

Well I think OPEC is counting on Iran and the West to make a deal. Then Iran will get back on the market in a big way in both oil and gas. That would keep prices just below the margin where shale is profitable. Of course for places like Russia the idea of Iran prodicing oil and natural gas on the global market is a total nightmare.

a reply to: FlySolo

Its all about Russia. That's why..

originally posted by: MrSpad
Well I think OPEC is counting on Iran and the West to make a deal. Then Iran will get back on the market in a big way in both oil and gas. That would keep prices just below the margin where shale is profitable. Of course for places like Russia the idea of Iran prodicing oil and natural gas on the global market is a total nightmare.

Then you think wrong.

Russia and Iran signed a $20 billion dollar energy deal earlier this year.

A major portion of that deal is collaboration in developing Iranian energy (Gas, Oil, Coal) with Russia.

Russia WANTS Iran producing more.

originally posted by: Donkey_Dean
Its all about Russia. That's why..

Nothing Saudi Arabia is doing, in regards to oil production, has Russia involved as the benefactor or target.

originally posted by: peck420

originally posted by: MrSpad
Well I think OPEC is counting on Iran and the West to make a deal. Then Iran will get back on the market in a big way in both oil and gas. That would keep prices just below the margin where shale is profitable. Of course for places like Russia the idea of Iran prodicing oil and natural gas on the global market is a total nightmare.

Then you think wrong.

Russia and Iran signed a $20 billion dollar energy deal earlier this year.

A major portion of that deal is collaboration in developing Iranian energy (Gas, Oil, Coal) with Russia.

Russia WANTS Iran producing more.

The deal Russia signed with Iran means it helps bring Irans oil to market so it gets a piece of it. And it is a 5 year deal. In return they will supply Iran with some machine parts pipes ect. Iran is limited in the amount of oil and natural gas it can produce because it does not have the capital to develop any more than it has. Russia also does not have the cash to offer for any expansion of note. The West however does, it is just not allowed to do so. If Iran and the West come to a deal and santions are dropped Iran will see a massive increase in oil and natural gas production. So one has nothng to do with the either. Russia would like to have a piece of what Iran is already producing but, they just spent a large amount of effort trying to get Iran as part of OPEC to cut production and raise prices.

a reply to: MrSpad

Russia also does not have the cash to offer for any expansion of note

Why does Russia not have the cash to offer for any expansion?, their central bank has over a half a trillion in cash reserves.

In return they will supply Iran with some machine parts pipes ect

I think you mean Power Stations and Nuclear power plant

Iran is limited in the amount of oil and natural gas it can produce because it does not have the capital to develop any more than it has

Also that is simply not true, they are limited because of sanctions not for lack of capital.

originally posted by: peck420

originally posted by: Donkey_Dean
Its all about Russia. That's why..

Nothing Saudi Arabia is doing, in regards to oil production, has Russia involved as the benefactor or target.

That's not true! Saudi, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait have cranked up the oil production which brings oversupply and thus prices down. This is on the orders of the US and NATO nations.

This oil price downing is hurting Russia to the tune of $10B a month i.e. $100-120B a year. This is equivalent to economic nuke on Russia.

So what is Putin waiting for? West has hit Russia directly in the pockets. This was the threat before to not invade Ukraine but now the threat has been carried out.

Russia has not much more to lose. Kremlin should go ahead with much high level of help to NAF and help them take all the territory that shows on the map of NovoRossiya i.e. 5 to 7 Oblasts. No need for formal invasion under the Russian flag. Just escalate the undercover help in men and machines.

This will also help in ramping up the oil prices and stop hitting Russia in the pockets.

Russia's allies like China and India which are heavy into importing oil should also jack up the demand to avail the lower prices and start storing this oil in the inventory. This will also help re-balancing the supply demand equation and bring the prices back to higher levels.

originally posted by: peck420

originally posted by: Donkey_Dean
Its all about Russia. That's why..

Nothing Saudi Arabia is doing, in regards to oil production, has Russia involved as the benefactor or target.

Open mouth insert foot! You really have no clue! Low oil effects Russia's bottom line.

Maybe the pill is hard to swallow seeing how high gas prices raped the American middle class. Inflation is basically a tax that requires no legislation etc.. It was all by design!

Russian economy may lose up to $140 billion because of oil prices.
english.pravda.ru...

"Siluanov noted that the Russian economy faced two major challenges: lower oil prices and the geopolitical situation. According to the minister, the decline in oil prices has had a much greater impact on the economy than the restrictions that Western countries imposed on Russia."

originally posted by: Dabrazzo
a reply to: MrSpad

Russia also does not have the cash to offer for any expansion of note

Why does Russia not have the cash to offer for any expansion?, their central bank has over a half a trillion in cash reserves.

In return they will supply Iran with some machine parts pipes ect

I think you mean Power Stations and Nuclear power plant

Iran is limited in the amount of oil and natural gas it can produce because it does not have the capital to develop any more than it has

Also that is simply not true, they are limited because of sanctions not for lack of capital.

Russia is in an economic crisis they have spent a great deal of money trying to prop up the Ruble but failed, their credit rating is just above junk and billions of dollars in capital has been lost, not to mention western investment is now gone. Russia can not afford what it has much less the money it would take to get Irans production up to snuff. Not that they would really want to. And while Russia does have 480 billion (no where near a trillion)in cash reserves you only spend reserves when you desperate as Russia has been doing to try and prop up the rubel.

Machine parts and pipes are all that is being offered to help Irans oil and gas industries. Helping with power plants and other random things in the agreement have nothing to with what we were discussing.

And yes santions are why Iran does not have the capital that they need from the west to expand production. The day santions end Western loans and specialist will flood into Iran and in half a decade Iran will be producing much more oil and most likely more natural gas anybody.

a reply to: MrSpad
Incorrect, but what would I know.

It's not like Gazprom called me and had me transfer our entire Gazprom tech database directly to NIOC within days of the signing.

a reply to: Donkey_Dean
Low oil prices affect every oil exporter's bottom line...even the country that has started this action.

The most affected are the unconventional producers.

The least affected are the conventional producers.

The 3 least affected countries will be SA, UAE, Russia, in that order.

The 3 most affected countries will be USA, Canada, and Venezuela, in that order.

The least affected are the least affected because they have the largest margins (biggest spread from market price to break point) to absorb the losses. The most affected have the smallest margins (smallest spread from market price to break point).

I know everybody on this board really wants this to be a targeted effort against Russia, but it isn't. Russia's oil break point is far to close to SA's for it to be an effective measure.

originally posted by: MrSpad





And yes santions are why Iran does not have the capital that they need from the west to expand production. The day santions end Western loans and specialist will flood into Iran and in half a decade Iran will be producing much more oil and most likely more natural gas anybody.

On a side note...

Israel isn't about to let that happen and the US will do whatever Israel tells them to do, including turning Iran into a glass parking lot.

Can i point out Russia is still moving across Ukraine. Certain things here in the USA have just gone dormant after a while. There is something going on here that doesn't add up. I am in the Navy and we are seeing things across our base.

originally posted by: Saint0928
I am in the Navy and we are seeing things across our base.

Like what?

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: MrSpad





And yes santions are why Iran does not have the capital that they need from the west to expand production. The day santions end Western loans and specialist will flood into Iran and in half a decade Iran will be producing much more oil and most likely more natural gas anybody.

On a side note...

Israel isn't about to let that happen and the US will do whatever Israel tells them to do, including turning Iran into a glass parking lot.

Israel did not want the US selling advanced weapons to Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia or the Gulf States that did not stop the US. Israel did not want the US to team up with the USSR and force them to pull out during the Suez Crisis and that did not stop the US. And Israel was not happy when the US made them all allies. The same will hold true with Iran.

And to points made by others. 45% of Russias budget spending comes from oil and it accounts for 70% of its exports. In the US some oil companies will get hurt but, the US economy will be given a boost as the cost of tranporting goods means more profits and people spending less on gas have more money to spend on other things.

a reply to: MrSpad

My point about the cash reserves was that Russia is probably on par with Americas cash reserves I imagine they hold fairly similar amounts of cash, gold, precious metals etc. I referenced cash reserves as I am unsure how you think Russia has no money yet America has lots?, as far as I know America is over 15 trillion in debt.

Machine parts and pipes are all that is being offered to help Irans oil and gas industries

No see Russia is basicaly constructing entire power stations for Iran as part of this agreement, obviously machine parts "and a few pipes" are used in this construction but thats kinda like saying our cars run on dinosaurs, there a little bit more to it. Russia will help Iran organise oil sales as well as “cooperate in the oil-gas industry, construction of power plants, grids, supply of machinery, consumer goods and agriculture products” as stated by the Russian Energy Ministry.

This by the way will also include further investment into exploiting Iranians coal/mineral reserves. Did you know Iran holds nearly 10% of the planets entire mineral reserves?

And you are right, anything else Russia is doing like building Iranian nuclear power stations is not directly related to this deal, but I find it odd you would suggest Russia has no money for oil and gas exploration yet at the same time they will more than likely be investing billions of dollars in Iran outwith this trade deal including upgrading Iranian rail networks. Seems to me like they have plenty of spare cash.

The day santions end Western loans and specialist will flood into Iran and in half a decade Iran will be producing much more oil and most likely more natural gas

You mean like when the Shah of Iran was in power?, one of the most brutal dictators of the 20th century, is that the sort of "specialists" you are talking about?

Im sorry we may simply differ on an ideological level with regards to that, I do not believe Iran wants western intervention in anyway shape or form and that western intervention will simply lead not only to the exploitation of Iranian resources but the exploitation of the Iranians themselves. I find the concept of forcing a nation to accept your help because you have made it impossible to get by otherwise rather frightening, if thats how Americans do business then its probably not for Iran.

And yes santions are why Iran does not have the capital that they need from the west to expand production

Iran has the capital, however the U.S has enforced a production cap, the sanctions the U.S are enforcing has caused nearly a 50% decrease in oil production. They do not need capitol to increase production they need arbitrary sanctions lifted against them.

yes Russia oil/energy revenue streams are being strangled
yes, the USA fracking is becoming prohibitively expensive to continue developing the shale oil resource

add to these items that the USA coerced Japan to engage in a hyper EQ program which undermines the Gov't
Pension System & value, but, more importantly, undermines the Yen carry-trade money making scheme...

the only way the USA could guarantee Japan's continued economic viability/sustainability with the forced Japanese QE and Yen devaluation to support the USD,
was to have the USA force OPEC to continue oil outflows at depressed prices ...so that Japan could afford their survival need of oil imports, ~even with the resulting depressed Yen value instigated by the USA.~


What is the reason for the USA to orchestrate this three-prong attack on world markets & energy stability,...

exactly to increase the strength of the USD...even outside the worldwide slide of the Petro-Dollar paradigm into a tattered relic

A Strong dollar, a singularly strong USD that is in demand...even in the face of losing the Petro-dollar status is what is being played out here in a very elaborate scheme by the central bankers/USA Fed/Wall Street


see this source as a related item: www.leap2020.eu...

It is likely that Saudi Arabia, the main loser from this US strategy, has decided to stop the game, precipitating prices to the downside, forcing the scam to be revealed and forcing a market of supply and demand to be put back in place.

That said, the damage is enormous, once again. The previous system of global energy governance is definitively broken. And if a new system isn’t created in the shortest possible time, Europe is well placed to know what to expect in a deregulated system of access to energy resources where the law of the strongest prevails.

Additionally, the petrodollar is crumbling at high speed. ...

the monetary system, the energy markets, a new structure of dominance is replacing the former USA reserve currency/petro-dollar... a central bank, resource dominating , rationing decider hegemon is being created upon the ruins of the past USA dominance in world markets....
the seats are just being re-arranged on the deck, with new names and tighter regulations replacing the former agencies on a global scale


the NWO is becoming a seedling

There is always a surplus but even with millions of barrels of crude oil in stock the supply would empty out in less than 6 months if not replenished. We Americans prefer to remain ahead of the race, not tread water.

There is a surplus.

a reply to: FlySolo

a reply to: St Udio

yeah StUdio-vic, your on top of that ---- but lets tell about how this contorted bevy of schemes will also affect the price of Gold and influence the Physical Delivery Markets


Draw your own conclusions, think out the string of manipulative actions the Bankers/Central Banks of the USA along with 'some' degree of complacency by other central banks/financial movers-&-shakers who make markets move

related source:
www.zerohedge.com...
(I think the Zero-Hedge site made the link too long to post on purpose)...2nd try below
www.zerohedge.com...








"Gold Shortage, Worst In 21st Century, Sends 1Y GOFO To Lowest Ever... And India Just Made It Worse
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/28/2014