WHO: Number of Ebola-linked cases passes 10,000

Now they say Ebola cases are more than 10,000 !!!

What the devil is going on?

Why the sudden exponential spread.

200 in the last few days.

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — More than 10,000 people have been infected with Ebola and nearly half of them have died, according to figures released Saturday by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread.

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa is the largest ever outbreak of the disease with a rapidly rising death toll in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. There have also been cases in three other West African countries, Spain and the United States.

WHO: Number of Ebola-linked cases passes 10,000

a reply to: xuenchen

It's been spreading exponentially the whole time. In another 3-4 weeks that 10k will climb to around 20k and so forth and so on. The problem with this current outbreak is that is running rampant in densely populated urban slums. Previous outbreaks were trapped in mostly remote villages where the virus could burn itself out relatively quickly.

a reply to: xuenchen

And of those it looks like half resulted in death, 4,922. What is scary is that death toll will be rising. The general number being thrown around is 70% mortality rate. If we are only at 50%, there are probably a lot more than 10,000 cases. It should continue to climb exponentially.

a reply to: xuenchen

Why the sudden exponential spread.

Because that's how it works. The more people who are infected, the more become infected. That's sort of epidemiology 101.

Nice how you used the word "spread" but the epidemic has not spread from where it originated. More people in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea are becoming infected. And will continue to do so.

a reply to: Phage

It originated in Guinea so it has in fact spread from where it started.

a reply to: ghostrager

Hey ghostrager, welcome to ATS!

The overall death toll is about half when you average it out.

Whole villages devastaed by Ebola

In the countries most affected, there was already a lack of doctors and nurses before the first case came up. As the disease spread, western countries quickly stepped in to take up the slack with personnel from WHO, Doctors Without Borders and many other smaller organizations. These doctors and nurses became the front line to a growing threat and a number of them became infected themselves (as we all know quite well by now).

As Ebola spread, the world became aware of how dangerous it really was and that the standard protocols with PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) were not up to the challenge that the disease presented. As more doctors and nurses became infected, panic ensued, particularly as these cases came back to western countries like America, bringing with them the threat of spread here.

Panic time.

The result of this is a desire to stop travel from those countries into America. So far, the response has been to direct such travel into 5 major airports in the states, as well as a 21 day quarantine for any person who comes back from fighting Ebola at its source.

So, let's pretend I'm a doctor.

How willing do you think I'd be to go to West Africa to help in the fight if, upon my return, I'm faced with only 5 entry points and then a 21 day quarantine?

The more difficult we make it for medical staff to fight the fight, the less will be willing to risk it. Therefore, I say that things will get a lot worse in West Africa before it gets any better. How far Ebola will spread is directly related to the efforts to contain it and, tbh, I don't see that effort sufficiently ramping up anytime soon.

I wouldn't doubt that planes carrying only medical staff from West Africa will be the next step and then I have to ask who would be willing to fly on a jet that has made that trip.

The panic and fear generated is aiding an exponential spread of the disease itself, but I sure don't have any easy answers on how to fix that conundrum.

a reply to: Phage

I think the sudden surge is the result of a *Failed* vaccine test.

a reply to: intrptr

Thank you for the welcome!

I am a bit curious why the mortality rate thrown around is so high. From what I read, "5,488 cases and 2,945 deaths having been laboratory confirmed"

Why such a sudden onslaught?

Why all-of-a-sudden since March 2014?

Outbreaks Chronology: Ebola Virus Disease

a reply to: xuenchen

Why all-of-a-sudden since March 2014?

Because that's when the outbreak began.
Also epidemiology 101.

Oh no!

Quick everyone buy super expensive vaccines!

a reply to: onequestion

What vaccines? They have yet to be produced.

Ebola vaccine trials are to start in west Africa in December, a month earlier than planned, and hundreds of thousands of doses will be available by mid-2015, the World Health Organisation says.

A high-level meeting of government representatives, including donor countries and those affected, together with vaccine manufacturers, has decided to push ahead with unprecedented speed, even though the early data on safety and the immune system response to the vaccines will not all be in.

The first vaccinations of health workers and others at high risk, including burial teams, are likely to take place in Liberia, with Sierra Leone not far behind. In the Liberian trial, the vaccines will be tested against placebo – some health workers will get the Ebola shot, while others will be given a vaccine that is protective against another disease, such as measles. The selection will be random and blinded, so that neither volunteers nor doctors know who has been given which vaccine until the trial ends.

www.theguardian.com...

originally posted by: masqua
a reply to: onequestion

What vaccines? They have yet to be produced.

Ebola vaccine trials are to start in west Africa in December, a month earlier than planned, and hundreds of thousands of doses will be available by mid-2015, the World Health Organisation says.

A high-level meeting of government representatives, including donor countries and those affected, together with vaccine manufacturers, has decided to push ahead with unprecedented speed, even though the early data on safety and the immune system response to the vaccines will not all be in.

The first vaccinations of health workers and others at high risk, including burial teams, are likely to take place in Liberia, with Sierra Leone not far behind. In the Liberian trial, the vaccines will be tested against placebo – some health workers will get the Ebola shot, while others will be given a vaccine that is protective against another disease, such as measles. The selection will be random and blinded, so that neither volunteers nor doctors know who has been given which vaccine until the trial ends.

www.theguardian.com...

Ya... Exactly..

originally posted by: onequestion
Oh no!

Quick everyone buy super expensive vaccines!

No No !!

Those are covered by insurance and government programs.



It's Corporatism remember.

a reply to: ghostrager

I am a bit curious why the mortality rate thrown around is so high. From what I read, "5,488 cases and 2,945 deaths having been laboratory confirmed"

Confirmed case are those that have actual test results so those numbers become "official". Not everyone is tested due to work load. Some cases are turned away from the centers because there simply is no room.

Some cases and deaths aren't reported.

The fudge factor can be applied to get a rough overall estimate. I don't like those numbers either. Good eye to facts on your part.

Here on ATS sometimes we like to embellish and run with it if you get my drift.

a reply to: masqua

I haven't seen anything on a vaccine yet either. I did recently read that there are drugs that can possibly treat ebola. The one that just made news in Japan was Favipiravir.

a reply to: xuenchen

You're right. No-one is going to be able to 'buy' the vaccine. Only if you are a known carrier who has contracted Ebola will you be able to get the vaccine... but you will also be a part of the 'study' and won't know if you've been injected with a placebo or the Ebola vaccine.

Cruel, eh?

I post this whenver someone asks this question. Different source this time because I can't find my other one.

The final piece of the puzzle is how epidemics work. Epidemiologists talk of “r nought”, R0, the most basic epidemiological number. It is, simply put, the number of new infections each ill person generates. If it is less than 1, R0 < 1, the infection will tend to die out. Each ill person is not replaced by another ill person. Bigger than 1, every ill person infects multiple people, it will grow exponentially.

It’s like that game: put a single grain of rice into the first chess block. Double it in the next one: two grains of rice. Double it again: four grains. There are 64 blocks in a chess board. Once you go through all 64, you will have 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 grains of rice or about 636,094,623,231,363 pounds. As in trillions.


That’s how exponential math works. It gets big, very quickly.

Again, the key is to stop it EARLY with very aggressive methods. No matter how much some nurse whines (sorry, off topic, but I am pretty ticked off at her).

a reply to: ghostrager

There's also a Canadian/American vaccine in the works:

Health Minister Rona Ambrose said that 20 vials of the vaccine will be tested on 40 healthy volunteers at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Maryland.

The trial, known as a Phase 1 trial, is designed to determine if VSV-EBOV is safe for human use. It is also designed to determine the right dosage for humans and to look out for any side effects.

When will the results of the trial be known?

Dr. Gregory Taylor, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, said results from the trial could be available by December.

If those results show that the vaccine is successful, the next step would be to test it in a larger group, including people who have had direct contact with Ebola patients in West Africa.

Will there be other trials for the vaccine?

NewLink Genetics, the U.S. firm that holds the licence for the vaccine, said earlier in October that there will be at least five clinical trials for VSV-EBOV. These will take place in the U.S., Germany, Switzerland and an African country not currently affected by the outbreak.



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