Ebola Mutating: Sustained H2H Transmission

originally posted by: Vroomfondel
The virus is mutating, adapting. Along with that comes learning to survive outside the host longer and longer. That leads directly to airborne transmission. Not pretty.

I agree... and this nasty Zaire strain has reportedly survived up to TWENTY-THREE DAYS outside a host. (The flu-- only 2 days at the most.)

As for airborne, I am sorry I read this:

"...and airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected, although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated ."

Source

Kind of explains the Level 4 containment requirement, a must for airborne pathogens.

originally posted by: new_here

originally posted by: Vroomfondel
The virus is mutating, adapting. Along with that comes learning to survive outside the host longer and longer. That leads directly to airborne transmission. Not pretty.

I agree... and this nasty Zaire strain has reportedly survived up to TWENTY-THREE DAYS outside a host. (The flu-- only 2 days at the most.)

As for airborne, I am sorry I read this:

"...and airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected, although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated ."

Source

Kind of explains the Level 4 containment requirement, a must for airborne pathogens.

ok just a little adjustment,,TWENTY-THREE DAYS outside a host. wrong 7 days only 7. (Includes Sperm, and other fluids.)

airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected, only when in direct vomit contact with projectile (large chunks) are present,,
or Fecal matter.ie splatter effect.

Vaporized droplets,,too small too form protective shell,,not proven. As yet.

Kind of explains the Level 4 containment requirement, a must for airborne pathogens.
u dont want it enetring though the mucus areas including the face,, cover area,, for instance the eyes./nose./mouth.,,
so yes level 4

other than that u good too know!

a reply to: BobAthome

Thanks, Bob. I'll gladly concede on two of those, but here's the full sentence from my source above, concerning 'airborne':

In the laboratory, infection through small-particle aerosols has been demonstrated in primates, and airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected, although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated.

Please note they differentiate between aerosols & airborne. I agree it says "not conclusively proven" (which now that I think about it, implies "some studies show") -- but it is the words "strongly suspected" as opposed to just "suspected" that raised my eyebrows. Kindly debunk this as a concern, and I'll not be sorry.

a reply to: new_here

apparently has something too do with Protien structure,, not enough blocks too build up good defensive wall,,

its fort got holes not enough big bricks,,

a reply to: new_here

I happen to know a few Naturalized Nigerians and I've discussed this situation with them. We've all determined via discussions that unfortunately, in our opinion(s) anyone traveling from anywhere "near" West Africa need not come here or allowed to come close. Simple reason being...no one knows if they were exposed! They have no method of tracking the ill until they're ill. By that time...well hell, as they say "It's A Wrap"! Their health system is very simple. That's from experience...I've actually been there and came ill and had to seek medical attention. It was a horrible experience and I only had a really bad cold. I thought it was something else because I've never been sick before. Still the lack of medical attention, let alone flagging of anything highly contagious would make your head spin 3 times. They're completely incapable of handling anything on this magnitude. I saw it first hand.

Listen, I'm half black. My African ancestors came from the Congo...the little ones...pygmies. So, I'm certainly not racist, but I am very cautious and extremely protective of my family and my nation. We can't just let people just fly in and out like it's nothing right now or else we're all going to be very, very, very, very sorry...very soon. That's about the only thing you can count on from this if this open Customs airport thing continues beyond the next 24 hours.

I'm no virologist by degree (although, I came dam close in college), but it doesn't take one to understand that we are faced with something so incredibly deceptive, tricky and dangerous to know that we need to protect our nation and protect it starting this very hour.

There was a story on my local So Cal news from a few days ago about a suspected Ebola patient up in Sacramento. DAM IT...I haven't heard a peep about it since! That tells me, if it is Ebola...even if it isn't, that this person flew first to the east coast and then here to even be a suspected carrier. WTF!!!! When are we going to wake the hell up? There was also about a month ago a suspected case in NY. I haven't heard anything about that patient since the initial story either. Something is seriously wrong here. Seriously wrong.

I don't want to contribute to mass panic...but, I think we should all be a whole lot more cautious now because of Ebola. H1N1 2 or 3, ain't got nothing on this!!! The health authorities let this thing get to enormous proportions well before they said a single "Ummmm....guys, I think we may have an issue".

I'm scared to freakin' death over here.

If there was a bunch of Ebola viruses stuck together, like drinking straws are inside of the box, then the ones in the middle could make it from person to person.

In general though, oxygen is very harsh to exposed DNA or the protein surrounding it. So is Ultra Violet light.

Together, oxygen and UV would tend to make the protein molecules stick to each other and prevent the DNA inside from reading itself. Like pages of a book that are stuck together with glue.

originally posted by: new_here
a reply to: BobAthome

Thanks, Bob. I'll gladly concede on two of those, but here's the full sentence from my source above, concerning 'airborne':

In the laboratory, infection through small-particle aerosols has been demonstrated in primates, and airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected, although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated.

Please note they differentiate between aerosols & airborne. I agree it says "not conclusively proven" (which now that I think about it, implies "some studies show") -- but it is the words "strongly suspected" as opposed to just "suspected" that raised my eyebrows. Kindly debunk this as a concern, and I'll not be sorry.

Their definition of aerosols vs airborne, is a bunch of crap...period! If you freakin' sneeze, then you are releasing airborne particles where? Into the air!

For crying out loud! A sneeze travels at tens of miles per hour..it is in fact a "wet aerosol". It lands somewhere while spreading. Hardly anyone "dry sneezes".

These people never cease to amaze me.

Thanks for all your input...you're awesome NewHere. I think I'm going back to the music section because I'm too wired up over this.

Before I go, please EVERYONE...stop and think about what happens when you sneeze into your hand, the air, your elbow crease...etc. Do you not wipe your hand somewhere?

Yes? Then what the hell?

Think about that!

a reply to: soficrow

Good work, I think that the most important things are the sustained human to human infection that is going on and the fact that the virus will continue to adapt to facilitate human-to-human infection, it basically gets practice at it.

20,000 people getting infected with Ebola is bigger than the previous Ebola outbreaks, listed here.

Right now, the previous record was 425 cases before our current case load of 3069 and rising.

originally posted by: Semicollegiate
If there was a bunch of Ebola viruses stuck together, like drinking straws are inside of the box, then the ones in the middle could make it from person to person.

In general though, oxygen is very harsh to exposed DNA or the protein surrounding it. So is Ultra Violet light.

Together, oxygen and UV would tend to make the protein molecules stick to each other and prevent the DNA inside from reading itself. Like pages of a book that are stuck together with glue.

You understand that viruses do not work in this way right?

ETA
With all due respect,
Common sense would tell us (using your example) that this box of straws will be moved, correct? What do think is going to happen when the box of straws are moved? They certainly will not stay in their positions prior to being moved. Once moved, the virus will spread.

Proteins and UV nor oxygen will deter a virus of this magnitude unless, it has sat untouched for a very very long time.

Do you know how long the common cold can survive on a surface of any material?

a reply to: ThePublicEnemyNo1

What are your event triggers?
What would cause you to stop everything you are doing and remove yourself from society?
Just curious.

originally posted by: ThePublicEnemyNo1

originally posted by: Semicollegiate
If there was a bunch of Ebola viruses stuck together, like drinking straws are inside of the box, then the ones in the middle could make it from person to person.

In general though, oxygen is very harsh to exposed DNA or the protein surrounding it. So is Ultra Violet light.

Together, oxygen and UV would tend to make the protein molecules stick to each other and prevent the DNA inside from reading itself. Like pages of a book that are stuck together with glue.

You understand that viruses do not work in this way right?

ETA
With all due respect,
Common sense would tell us (using your example) that this box of straws will be moved, correct? What do think is going to happen when the box of straws are moved? They certainly will not stay in their positions prior to being moved. Once moved, the virus will spread.

Proteins and UV nor oxygen will deter a virus of this magnitude unless, it has sat untouched for a very very long time.

Do you know how long the common cold can survive on a surface of any material?

A large number of objects in any volume of space will have some on the outside and most in the interior. In the case of Ebola, the ones on the out side can react with the ambient UV and oxygen, shielding the viruses in the interior of the volume to some degree.

When Ebola reproduces itself, the viruses are cranked out like hamburger blobs, and some of the viruses would be in the interior of such a mass.

According to the first law of motion, objects moving at identical constant velocity are at rest relative to each other.

I agree that a box of straws would usually, 99.9% of the time, disperse itself when subject to random motion.

But the Ebola virus gets way more than 999 attempts, over the course of an epidemic.

And one simple mutation that would allow Ebola to become airborne is whatever would cause its individual viruses to stick together in globs in between victims.

Maybe most aerosol and, if possible, airborne infections happen in shadow or at night, where and when less UV is ambient.

The more infected people there are, the more virus there is, the more mutations there are, the higher the potential for more dangerous mutations to occur.

In another thread somebody challenged the article I will repost here about Ebola being at least partly airborne.
I guess there is 2 types of airborne the one that can travel great distance and one that only can travel short distance.
For example a movie theater, where somebody sneezed expelling small amounts, people in that theater could become infected. But if somebody sneezed in the open air in a city, somebody 1 mile away will not get it.
So think enclosed spaces for airborne; subways, trains, & buses. Anywhere people gather in numbers, a hockey arena or other sporting venue that is a closed building, movie theaters and so on.

I guess it depends how long the disease survives onces it leaves it's biological host, clearly Ebola can and does.
Unlike something like HIV where somebody with it could sneeze right beside you and you won't catch it.

Ebola Goes Airborne

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
a reply to: soficrow

Yep.. all from a bunch of women at some healer/medicine man's place during a funeral. Like 12 women were infected I think.

Yes, that's the official story. But as always, the real story is likely quite different. For example, early news reports said there were Ebola cases in Sierra Leone, linked to Kenema Government Hospital. Sierra Leone responded with denials, saying there was no Ebola in the country - they didn't own up til months later, after the epidemic had spread across the nation.

Thing is… After Sierra Leone's civil war ended in 2003, a group of US researchers set up a research facility and laboratory in Kenema Government Hospital under contract with the Sierra Leone government. The original focus was Lassa Fever research, but later expanded to include all viral hemorrhagic fevers including Ebola - and the group became the "Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Consortium" (VHFC). Partners included universities, pharmaceutical corporations and USAMRIID (U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases).

Kenema Government Hospital had a reputation for spreading Ebola and killing people by the time the Ebola epidemic was raging. So the Western mainstream interpreted the rumors as "superstition," and camouflaged them with wild stories.

….Raphael Frankfurter, an aid worker in eastern Sierra Leone, described hearing one woman saying about the hospital in Kenema: “Ebola is a lie! They’re sending people to Kenema to die!”

Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Consortium (VHFC)

The Consortium is a collaboration between Tulane, Scripps Research Institute, Broad Institute, Harvard University, University of California at San Diego, University of Texas Medical Branch, Autoimmune Technologies LLC, Corgenix Medical Corporation, Kenema Government Hospital (Sierra Leone), Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital (Nigeria) and various other partners in West Africa.

USAMRIID (U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases), located at Fort Detrick, Maryland, is the lead medical research laboratory for the U.S. Biological Defense Research Program, and plays a leading role in national defense and in infectious disease research. …

Corgenix and USAMRIID are members of the Viral Hemorrhagic fever Consortium …

In collaboration with its research partners from the Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Consortium (VHFC), Corgenix recently completed a multi-year study conducted at the Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) in Kenema, Sierra Leone.

NOTE: Early reports described Sierra Leone as the "epicenter" of the Ebola outbreak. This was later 'modified,' and history re-written.

Raphael Frankfurter, executive director of the Wellbody Alliance, which provides clinical services in a diamond-mining district of Sierra Leone bordering Guinea, where the outbreak began.

The International Food Policy Research Institute published a report in 2013, finding that in Sierra Leone (the epicenter of the outbreak), climate change has resulted in “seasonal droughts, strong winds, thunderstorms, landslides, heat waves, floods, and changed rainfall patterns.”

WHEN did the epidemic start? Not in March....

Outbreak in West Africa

An Ebola epidemic that has been sweeping through West Africa since January has proven to be the most devastating single outbreak of the disease in history.

originally posted by: phinubian
a reply to: soficrow

....even if the risk is low, that would still mean that evn one unknowing person would be able to become a carrier that could cause an outbreak.

.....To me even though this article states Ebola virus is transmitted differently, I think with all of these new strains, this might not be true.

Yes - someone could be percolating the virus unknowingly. In the past, Ebola really has not been infectious until the symptoms started. ...But the fatality rate is falling, and symptoms now may be milder in many cases - so the infectious period may not be so dramatic....

RE: Transmission. Even without airborne transmission, this Ebola is getting around just fine. And it's mutating more quickly now... Our best defence is to stop it in West Africa. ASAP. Else we could be dealing with what? A seasonal Ebola-flu?

RE:

The overall fatality rate is 52%, the WHO said, ranging from 42% in Sierra Leone to 66% in Guinea.

originally posted by: new_here
a reply to: soficrow

They left out a crucial word... ESTIMATED! ....their statistics are categorically meaningless, unless they clearly state "based on documented infections and death rate of that same sampling." They must skirt this, otherwise they must admit... 'we don't know how fatal this is.'

Fatality rate calculations ARE "based on documented infections and death rate of that same sampling." The number of reported cases is known - as is the number of reported deaths. For example, on August 22 there were 2,252 reported cases (confirmed, suspected and probable), out of which 1,244 victims died - or a 55.2% fatality rate. By August 28 there were 3,069 reported cases (confirmed, suspected and probable), out of which 1,552 victims died - or a 50.57% fatality rate. ....The WHO's figures are online at Disease Outbreak News (DONs) - just click on a date to get the report for that date.

You are right though - reporting is erratic and incomplete overall. Nobody knows how many actual cases there really are, or how many actual deaths. But most likely, the fatality rate for unreported cases is lower or about the same as reported cases. [History shows the death rate in hospitals tends to be higher.]

…..The most important point about the death rate in this epidemic is that it's MUCH lower than in past outbreaks - meaning Ebola is mutating to spread better in human hosts.

Thanks all for your information and comments - great stuff! Sorry I can't respond to everyone right now but I'll be back. Thanks again.

it was on the news a few days later,the patient at the kaiser in sacramento tested negative for the ebola virus, also the woman in new mexico and three others in new york, maryland, and ohio all tested negative for the ebola virus

the new info is important and we need to keep an eye on this for sure

originally posted by: ThePublicEnemyNo1
a reply to: new_here

I happen to know a few Naturalized Nigerians and I've discussed this situation with them. We've all determined via discussions that unfortunately, in our opinion(s) anyone traveling from anywhere "near" West Africa need not come here or allowed to come close. Simple reason being...no one knows if they were exposed! They have no method of tracking the ill until they're ill. By that time...well hell, as they say "It's A Wrap"! Their health system is very simple. That's from experience...I've actually been there and came ill and had to seek medical attention. It was a horrible experience and I only had a really bad cold. I thought it was something else because I've never been sick before. Still the lack of medical attention, let alone flagging of anything highly contagious would make your head spin 3 times. They're completely incapable of handling anything on this magnitude. I saw it first hand.

Listen, I'm half black. My African ancestors came from the Congo...the little ones...pygmies. So, I'm certainly not racist, but I am very cautious and extremely protective of my family and my nation. We can't just let people just fly in and out like it's nothing right now or else we're all going to be very, very, very, very sorry...very soon. That's about the only thing you can count on from this if this open Customs airport thing continues beyond the next 24 hours.

I'm no virologist by degree (although, I came dam close in college), but it doesn't take one to understand that we are faced with something so incredibly deceptive, tricky and dangerous to know that we need to protect our nation and protect it starting this very hour.

There was a story on my local So Cal news from a few days ago about a suspected Ebola patient up in Sacramento. DAM IT...I haven't heard a peep about it since! That tells me, if it is Ebola...even if it isn't, that this person flew first to the east coast and then here to even be a suspected carrier. WTF!!!! When are we going to wake the hell up? There was also about a month ago a suspected case in NY. I haven't heard anything about that patient since the initial story either. Something is seriously wrong here. Seriously wrong.

I don't want to contribute to mass panic...but, I think we should all be a whole lot more cautious now because of Ebola. H1N1 2 or 3, ain't got nothing on this!!! The health authorities let this thing get to enormous proportions well before they said a single "Ummmm....guys, I think we may have an issue".

I'm scared to freakin' death over here.

TB can remain viable in dried sputum for up to six months if not exposed to direct sunlight.

It has taken many mutations to develop this "ability".

If this Ebola outbreak continues to grow, and all indications point to it doing just that, we could be seriously screwed.


If it hitsAsia or Europe there will be no stopping it.


The real numbers are much higher than the WHO or CDC have been reporting.

A lot of Africans don't trust western Dr's. So they have no idea what the real numbers are.

IMPORTANT NOTE

Five of the scientists involved in the research caught Ebola and died. It's one of the most interesting -and alarming- factoids in the source report.

FIVE researchers. DIED. Got that? FIVE. …Exactly HOW did five fully protected, fully suited, well-trained professionals working in a state-of-the-art laboratory catch Ebola? And if five died, how many researchers caught it and lived? (Ten, at a 50% fatality rate.)

So what mistaken assumptions did they make about the Ebola they were working with? One might have been an accident. But FIVE? And you sure can't blame lack of training or inadequate tools.

Did they prep an experimental vaccine and think they were working with a dead virus? Or what?

….Did they make the same mistake about the safety of their patients' exposures as they did about their own? Is that how this epidemic started?

In memoriam: Tragically, five co-authors, who contributed greatly to public health and research efforts in Sierra Leone, contracted EVD in the course of their work and lost their battle with the disease before this manuscript could be published. We wish to honor their memory.

Ebola's heavy toll on study authors

At Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) in Sierra Leone, where the country’s first case was diagnosed, more than 2 dozen nurses, doctors, and support staff have died of Ebola. KGH is where many of the samples were collected for a paper published online today in Science that analyzes the genetics of the virus responsible for the disease.

.