Writer of The Coming Plague warns "you are not nearly scared enough about Ebola"

a reply to: Wrabbit2000

Yep the CDC and others have very defined answers to whether something is airborne. Myself I would not want to be sat next to someone who is infectious that might sneeze or cough and I end up breathing some of their air.... or get splattered with their cough or sneeze.. No expert but just common sense IMO... Which seems to be lacking by those who insist it cannot be transmitted airborne.. If you can get it by just touching someone then no doubt in my mind you can get it from exhaled/hurled moisture from someone infectious.

a reply to: sooth

It isn't comparable. We are talking about a disease you get from touching mucous, semen, blood, feces, etc ONLY. And a disease that is highly noticeable and immediately quarantined.

It will never spread in a first world country unless it can mutate to airborne.

a reply to: Wrabbit2000

Yes. They figured it out in the USA in Reston Virginia (where the Reston Ebola strain got it's name). It was spreading through the monkey house because of poor ventilation. It's a large virus that does not go airborne by itself. They had ample time to study it there. Humans were even infected, but that strain is asymptomatic in humans.

So if someone with it sneezes and you breath in they saliva and mucous particles you can catch it from the air, but that doesn't make it airborne like measles. It's only there as long as the bodily fluids are suspended.

This is exactly like the aids thing back in the late 70's and 80's. Pretty soon pharma will come up with a vaccine, but first, they have to scare you first. So don't touch any door handle when you go shopping. Hell don't go shopping at all. stay indoors and AWAY FROM ALL BUISNESSES. lock yourself in your bunker NOW.

originally posted by: 727Sky
a reply to: Wrabbit2000

Yep the CDC and others have very defined answers to whether something is airborne. Myself I would not want to be sat next to someone who is infectious that might sneeze or cough and I end up breathing some of their air.... or get splattered with their cough or sneeze.. No expert but just common sense IMO... Which seems to be lacking by those who insist it cannot be transmitted airborne.. If you can get it by just touching someone then no doubt in my mind you can get it from exhaled/hurled moisture from someone infectious.

I can tell you what it is like to be trapped near a person on a plane with a potentially fatal disease.

I was on an airplane and across the aisle was a small child. The child was listless, with the look of high fever that mothers know from the flush, and coughing deep coughs.

When I asked the Mother if the child was sick, she shook her head no. She then moved the child from her lap on the aisle seat to a relative on the window seat. The child was old enough that it had it's own seat but was too sick to sit in it after takeoff. The family was from South American, which I could tell because my brother in law is from South America.

Within days I was seriously ill, hospitalized with virulent pneumonia and nearly died. I was sick for a total of 3 months because my immune system was destroyed and I caught 2 different strains of flu after catching the disease on the airplane. Even though I had been vaccinated for flu that year.

If that child would have had Ebola, I would have caught it. Because he was just across the aisle from me on an airplane for hours on end, coughing. From what I can tell from how far the droplets in mucus from coughing with Ebola fall, I was within the range. As would be anyone across the aisle from an Ebola patient who was coughing, not to mention the person sitting next to them, in front of or behind them.

There is real risk of catching it from coughing and a real risk of spreading it that way also. At the close distance on an airplane the person next to the cougher could even get the droplets in their eyes which is acknowledged to be the way many of the health professionals caught it.

a reply to: grandmakdw

Yeah, you could catch it that way, but that's still not technically airborne.

Get into your bunkers NOW. Hide under your desk and maybe it will go away. What about the black clap ? Nobody talks about that and the person who got it in the philiphines could not get any drugs for it in the usa. He had to use the high doses of this drug they had there so he could get rid of it. He almost died, i heard. I am as worried about ebola as i am getting struck by lightning.

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
a reply to: grandmakdw

Yeah, you could catch it that way, but that's still not technically airborne.

You are correct about the technicality.

But how would you feel if you were sitting across the aisle from a coughing Ebola patient?
How much comfort would it be that "it's not technically airborne"?
So only you, the person next to them, the people in front of them and behind them could catch it from all the research that is out there.
But, it's not technically airborne, so no problem, "can't be caught in an airborne way"

I'd consider the technicality a bald face lie if I were across the airplane aisle from someone with Ebola who was coughing or worse yet in the seat next to them.

Even the staunchest of scientists who say its not airborne admit that many of the health care workers caught it from getting the large droplets from coughs into their eyes at short range. But, it's not airborne right?

I wonder if this can be used as a weapon or in a smoke or tear canister and thrown at let's say protesters in the Midwest somewhere.

With all the mucus and tears, coughing and spitting this could spread like wildfire.

Ebola isn't airborne and what is this genius' big plan for what we should do - other than panic and freak out?


What's the point of panic? Don't tell me this person thinks 'awareness' is the key - we are aware. What is this person's big deal other than just trying to get their name out there and stir things up?

a reply to: grandmakdw

Dude, if that story is true then everyone on the plane got it. WHY Because the planes air system is shared and blown thruout the plane. All of those people on that plane would of gotten sick or got ill depending on a persons immune systems. Every one of them would of got what the kid had. Did you ever ask or know how many people 3 to 4 days later became ill. NO# 1 cause for vacationers on planes who later get ill on vacation. Sick people on planes going home. Same thing goes with children in school. Usually the person sitting next to a person who is caughing and sneezing transferes that on to the other people around them and children are usually the ones who don't wash hands and spread that mucus on door handles all over the place causing YOU, who touch such things without knowing, to get sick. Anything the kid touched that day when he she was sick. Then your child brings that home to your house. Then YOU, and your family get sick. GERMS are everywhere in your environment. Go to the mall and touch every handle, then ich the inside of your nose. BINGO, you get sick.

originally posted by: cloaked4u
a reply to: grandmakdw

Dude, if that story is true then everyone on the plane got it. WHY Because the planes air system is shared and blown thruout the plane. All of those people on that plane would of gotten sick or got ill depending on a persons immune systems. Every one of them would of got what the kid had. Did you ever ask or know how many people 3 to 4 days later became ill. NO# 1 cause for vacationers on planes who later get ill on vacation. Sick people on planes going home. Same thing goes with children in school. Usually the person sitting next to a person who is caughing and sneezing transferes that on to the other people around them and children are usually the ones who don't wash hands and spread that mucus on door handles all over the place causing YOU, who touch such things without knowing, to get sick. Anything the kid touched that day when he she was sick. Then your child brings that home to your house. Then YOU, and your family get sick. GERMS are everywhere in your environment. Go to the mall and touch every handle, then ich the inside of your nose. BINGO, you get sick.

No, I never contacted the airline, I was too sick and never thought about it. But knew exactly where I caught viral pneumonia (which antibiotics don't really cure). Actually when I said a few days , it was really about a week to 10 days, exact incubation period for a virus like that, but that's a technicality. I know I caught it from the kid, no doubt at all.

The 99% zombies need to stop infecting us Good folk. Wash yourself, change your underware. Brush your teeth and use mouthwash to kill all those nasty germs in there. Your breath stinks, suck on a mint. Wash the bugs out of your hair or whatever else is in there. The germs are multiplying. Put on some body deodorizer after you shower, germs grow here too. Your arm pits smells like a passing skunk, germs are lurking here too. You must have worn your cloths for over a week. Steralize that sht. burn it. You people are a walking disease. Zombie. Clean it up with orbits.

Dude, if that story is true then everyone on the plane got it. WHY Because the planes air system is shared and blown thruout the plane.

Yes, except that the air passes through HEPA filters that block out around 99.5% of particles, including all bacteria and particles carrying a virus. So no.. the rest of the plane would have not gotten sick. In fact, a plane recycles the air around 20 times an hour, versus an office, which only recycles it around 12 times an hour. And typically with no filtration. So a plane is actually more filtered and safe air-wise then a typical office building.

And I am far from fear-mongering... and trying to tell folks things like "you can't catch this from someone who is not symptomatic," and yet, I am more fearful of this than any other scare in the past. H1N1, SARS, etc.. I didn't think those were huge deals at all. This is a huge deal. I think many are treating it too flippantly, yourself included.

The flu itself is much worse (so far).. it kills a -lot- of people every year. This is.. so far.. much tamer.

But make no mistake.. if containment is not made, this can be a devastating, worldwide pandemic. 21 days is a long time to carry this around. The biggest spread would be the first day or two of someone showing symptoms. If this escapes to other continents, I think the # of dead will easily be in the 100's of thousands. And it could be much, much worse.

Acting as if the chance of someone catching this is along the same lines of being struck by lightning as you stated, is ridiculous.

a reply to: Samtzurr

Not necessarily:

We believe that at present no suitable outgroup sequences to root the EBOV phylogeny exist and that a temporal rooting gives the most consistent results.

This approach indicates that the outbreak in Guinea is likely caused by a Zaire ebolavirus lineage that has spread from Central Africa into Guinea and West Africa in recent decades, and does not represent the emergence of a divergent and endemic virus.

As the GP sequences show, without more diverse sequences, especially those from the animal reservoir, it is difficult to narrow down the estimates of when and through what means the Central African EBOV lineage has been introduced into West Africa.

I think if it were different in the way Blaize et al are implying, it would be on a different branch than in this graph:



Phylogenetic Analysis of Guinea 2014 EBOV Ebolavirus Outbreak

If this were a different enough variant, it would probably be called Guinea Ebola Virus (GEBOV), but this is clearly THE ZEBOV from the central African outbreaks of the 70s.



a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

Are you absolutely certain of that?

Using data from two epidemics [in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1995 and in Uganda in 2000], we built a mathematical model for the spread of Ebola haemorrhagic fever epidemics taking into account transmission in different epidemiological settings. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) to be 2·7 (95% CI 1·9–2·8) for the 1995 epidemic in DRC, and 2·7 (95% CI 2·5–4·1) for the 2000 epidemic in Uganda.

Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics

From another source:

Epidemiological modelling based on the data from previous EBOV outbreaks has produced a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2·7 with a 95% confidence range of 1.9 to 4.1 (Legrand et al., 2007). This R0 is comparable to influenza (Mills et al., 2004) and would seem to be comfortably within the range required to generate an EVD pandemic. In answer to the question of why this has not already occurred in human history, perhaps the most persuasive response is that EVD very fortunately only emerged into human populations around the time of its discovery in the mid-1970s (Walsh et al., 2005), by which time we were fairly equipped to deal with it in remote low population density settings. Whether we can contain it within a large city, should the necessity to do so arise, remains to be seen.

The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in west Africa



Not necessarily airborne as per the medical.definition, but it can be contracted through casual contact:

Overall, Ebola virus socio-ecology systems have shown to be linked by direct and indirect transmission through contact with objects from patients. For example, the blood or secretions of an infected person or objects that have been contaminated with infected secretions can reach humans from a variety of hosts/sources

Need of surveillance response systems to combat Ebola outbreaks and other emerging infectious diseases in African countries

And

Case identification and detection, contact tracing and patient clinical assessment and management are not the object of this Guidance document and instructions can be found elsewhere.1, 2 However, regarding IPC measures to be implemented during interviews for contact tracing and case finding in the community, the following principles should be kept in mind: 1) shaking hands should be avoided; 2) a distance of more than one metre (about 3 feet) should be maintained between interviewer and interviewee; 3) PPE is not required if this distance is assured and when interviewing asymptomatic individuals (e.g., neither fever, nor diarrhoea, bleeding or vomiting) and provided there will be no contact with the environment, potentially contaminated with a possible/probable case; 4) it is advisable to provide workers undertaking contact tracing and case finding in the community with alcohol-based hand rub solutions and instructions to appropriately perform hand hygiene.

Interim Infection Prevention and Control Guidance for Care of Patients with Suspected or Confirmed Filovirus Haemorrhagic Fever in Health-Care Settings, with Focus on Ebola
August 2014

And

Infection, although occurring indirectly through body fluids, is strongly suspected to occur through airborne as well as skin contact transmission.

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (EHF): Mechanism of Transmission and Pathogenicity

originally posted by: tinker9917
Who says it has not mutated and is not about to become the new "Black Plague"

No-one with any qualifications to make such a statement?

I read that very same article this morning and I agree with the author. I admit people should not panic, or run to their stores and strip the shelves and backorder lamp oil but they should at least be aware and concerned. I don't know but lately how we've been seeing movies about plagues and post-apocalyptic themes tells me they do in fact know something about the future and they do tell us these things in certain ways. Every bit of information that is released is a tool. It is up to us to select and utilize the proper ones.

We're seeing how it's spreading in West Africa and believe me we are not as safe and secure as we think we are over here. Many Americans do practice good hygiene but the public areas are far from clean. Garbage, chairs, handrails, phones. It's true it can live outside the body for short periods in fluids and dried fluids? That's a problem. Someone coughs, it can spread. Sweats, bleeds, urinates, etc. It's a dirty world and they let us know daily how filthy our surroundings are. Heed the warnings my brothers and sisters.

OP: Your thread on the Jumping Jack Flash Hypothesis was brilliant. I do see a strong correlation between the events predicted and what is occurring in the present. Thankyou.

originally posted by: 727Sky
a reply to: Wrabbit2000

Yep the CDC and others have very defined answers to whether something is airborne. Myself I would not want to be sat next to someone who is infectious that might sneeze or cough and I end up breathing some of their air.... or get splattered with their cough or sneeze.. No expert but just common sense IMO... Which seems to be lacking by those who insist it cannot be transmitted airborne.. If you can get it by just touching someone then no doubt in my mind you can get it from exhaled/hurled moisture from someone infectious.

Common sense says, but at the same time, when people say "airborne," it's something that can survive in the air and is durable enough to easily infect you through your respiratory system and mucus membranes. Ebola simply does not qualify. It is more of a blood borne pathogen. It's much more like HIV/AIDS or a norovirus in that it needs more of a direct path into your circulatory or digestive system to really take hold.

That doesn't mean that there aren't absolute perfect circumstances under which you might find some isolated cases of infection via coughing or sneezing, but they are NOT going to be your main route of infection. They are going to be oddities.

a reply to: fleabit

A hepa filter. I almost burst a gut laughing at that, considering i use to make hepa filter parts a long time ago. he,he,he,he. wow. HEY, i got a hepa filter in my vacumnn cleaner, should i feel safe now. Still not worried about ebola, i would be more worried of a lightning bolt coming down.

Do you really think that planes worry about what bio level of filter they put in place? Did you personally inspect it? NO, you go by what the airlines told to you, so you feels safe and protected, so you fly on their plane again. It may have not been changed since the plane was built.To say you know is like walking on thin ice, you may one day fall thru. When it comes to germs, they always find a way, thats Nature. But still not scared of ebola YET. When a million and a half are infected world wide then i will take concern of said bug germ.