Eta Carinae is brightening as never before. The event is coming!

Eta Carinae is one of the biggest and brightest stars in our galaxy. The system actually contains two stars, the larger, a blue variable which is estimated to be 150 solar masses. Eta Carinae brightness has varied considerably over the past 200 years. In 1827 it had brightened more than tenfold reaching a magnitude of −0.8. The system is close to its end of life and expected to explode as a supernova within the next million years.



The La Plata Astronomical Observatory in South America has been observing the star system at visual wavelengths, their latest entry, "the event is coming", hints that they expect Eta Carinae might display another explosion at least as big as that seen in 1827

Jul 03, 2014, Eta is brightening as never before during our campaign. The event is coming!!!

They continue to map the brightness of the star which can be viewed on their star here : etacar.fcaglp.unlp.edu.ar...

What happens if Eta Carinae explodes ( source : en.wikipedia.org... )

At least one paper has projected that complete loss of the Earth's ozone layer is a plausible consequence of a nearby supernova, which would result in a significant increase in surface UV radiation reaching the Earth's surface from our own Sun. At least one scientist has claimed that when the star explodes, "it would be so bright that you would see it during the day, and you could even read a book by its light at night". A supernova or hypernova produced by Eta Carinae would probably eject a gamma ray burst (GRB) out from both polar areas of its rotational axis. Calculations show that the deposited energy of such a GRB striking the Earth's atmosphere would be equivalent to one kiloton of TNT per square kilometer over the entire hemisphere facing the star, with ionizing radiation depositing ten times the lethal whole body dose to the surface. This catastrophic burst would probably not hit Earth, though, because the rotation axis does not currently point towards our solar system. If Eta Carinae is a binary system, this may affect the future intensity and orientation of the supernova explosion that it produces, depending on the circumstances.

Brightness from year 1810 to now Source: etacar.fcaglp.unlp.edu.ar...

Cool ...thanks for the "heads up."

This system has some folks worried as if it happens to be pointed in the right direction, as was mentioned, then we are toast.

And the "right direction" is relatively broad as stellar systems are massive, and a nova blowing out the polar part of the star facing us would expand like a cosmic shotgun blast so that a huge swath of space would be involved.

I'm certainly glad that Eta Carinae is facing far enough away to miss the solar system. Not a thing we could do if it was facing us, though.

And to clarify, they postulate a polar explosion from both poles... primarily... and one of the poles does point at Sol sometimes in its rotational wobble and is close enough to eradiate us very well... extra crispy.

a reply to: glend

It is between 7,500 and 8,000 light years away, so I do think we have a little time to prepare. . . . .

Upon writing this, I just realized my mistake. It could have happened @ 8,000 years ago.

Okay.

Solid doom mode now.

if it is there is about a 5 percent chance we are in the barrel of a wolf rayet hypernova. 3 months of being in the beam path of what is essentially a gigantic cosmic gamma ray laser is "not good." would need some sort of gigantic shadow shield to protect earth or it is all over for us.

of course we could never get it together enough politically or technologically to build such a shield.

also if it did go boom we would not know it until a thousand years after it had already happened. it could have went boom already. it would take thousands of years for us to see it just as it started frying us.

a reply to: stormbringer1701

The thing is, if we're seeing it, it IS frying us. It could have super-nova'd 4,000 years ago. What we're seeing is light that is 8,000 years old.

It could have super-nova'd 8,000 years ago and we could be in for one heck of a sunrise.

originally posted by: beezzer
a reply to: glend

It is between 7,500 and 8,000 light years away, so I do think we have a little time to prepare. . . . .

Upon writing this, I just realized my mistake. It could have happened @ 8,000 years ago.

Okay.

Solid doom mode now.

No worry start digging and prepping ! I have heard somewhere 6 feet of dirt and a years worth of water and food should get you through most stuff... or was it six feet under and you don't have to worry about food or water... Hummm

S&F Op nothing is static and last forever.

Stop! Stop! Stop!

For us non sciencey types what are you saying here? This other sun is going to blow up and is pointed at us? Please give the layman's version.

Note, if this is going to take thousands of years I don't really care.

a reply to: Baddogma

A direct gamma ray burst blast would only threaten people in southern hemisphere (Cannot view Eta Carinae from northern hemisphere). But if it destroys the ozone layer we all toast.

a reply to: beezzer

We can only see it as it was 8000 years ago. Read that a supernova explosion travels at or very near the speed of light so you could possibly see that spectacular sunrise in your life time.

well the only good news is scinece now says it is unlikely that we are in the beam path now. initially the odds were that we were in the beam path. now the odds are considerably less but still possible. that is unless the downward revision is politically based.

originally posted by: Bassago
Stop! Stop! Stop!

For us non sciencey types what are you saying here? This other sun is going to blow up and is pointed at us? Please give the layman's version.

Note, if this is going to take thousands of years I don't really care.

That's the kicker right there.

It could have already have happened.

It's not so much an if, but when.

I'm glad I'm not the only one looking for an explanation.

It seems that we're talking about two things. The star brightening to the point it was in 1827 (which, as far as I know, caused no damage), and a supernova which may occur sometime in the next million years.

Why should I be concerned about either?

another thing this is not a normal nova or supernova event. it is a hyper nova event. novas and supernovas are not dangerous at a range of 8000 light years. a hypernova is. fortunately they can only occur in very special stars systems.

I don't think we have anything to worry about really unless the gamma ray burst is directed at us.

Even then, apparently they only happen a few per galaxy every couple million years, and none in our own so far

I'm already prepared. I've shaved my head, eaten my neighbors pets, and now walk around in chaps with no "behind".

originally posted by: yourmaker
I don't think we have anything to worry about really unless the gamma ray burst is directed at us.

Even then, apparently they only happen a few per galaxy every couple million years, and none in our own so far

that is somewhat comforting except this particular star is known to be pointing in our general direction. but it could be worse. i think i conflated eta carinae with this monster:

en.wikipedia.org...

A hypernova (pl. hypernovae or hypernovas) is a type of supernova explosion with an energy substantially higher than that of standard supernovae. An alternative term for most hypernovae is "superluminous supernovae" (SLSNe). Such explosions are believed to be the origin of long-duration gamma-ray bursts.[1]

Just like supernovae in general, hypernovae are produced by several different types of stellar explosion: some well modelled and observed in recent years, some still tentatively suggested for observed hypernovae, and some entirely theoretical. Numerous hypernovae have been observed corresponding to supernovae type Ic and type IIn, and possibly also at least one of type IIb.[2]

The word collapsar, short for collapsed star, was formerly used to refer to the end product of stellar gravitational collapse, a stellar-mass black hole. The word is now sometimes used to refer to a specific model for the collapse of a fast-rotating star

if eta carinae is not a wolf rayet star it is considerably less dangerous. note the danger of WR hypenova has been considerably toned down in this wiki article. it was initially much worse. and estimates were we were really almost certainly in the path of it.

a reply to: glend

Here is the actual paper .. not the wiki Doom Porn.

Hard x-ray pulses or increased cosmic radiation originating in nearby supernova explosions may be capable of temporarily removing most of the earth's atmospheric ozone cover even when direct radiation effects at the earth's surface are negligible. Consequently, terrestrial life may be subject to relatively huge solar ultraviolet fluxes every few hundred million years.

ok after all of that i feel the need to go look and see if eta carinae is a wolf rayet star; in particular was the one i was thinking it was.

it was. it is a hypernova candidate. it is 8000 light years away. it is pointing in our general direction. i guess it is a good thing that the danger of this particular star has been played down assuming that it's science and not propaganda.

a reply to: stormbringer1701

Think you were correct first post. Number of sources say Eta Carinae is a rare B class hypergiant that could result in a hypernova.

Temporarily is a relative term. it is posulated that one of these hypernovaes caused the greatest extinction eveny of the silurian era.

gamma ray emissions of a wolf rayet hypernova last three months. during that time earth rotates on its axis at least 90 times and it, the moon and any other screening planets move 1/4 of a years worth of their orbits.

once the ozone layer is compromised 90 percent of the biodiversity of that era died and that is with the shielding effect of the ocean as the life of that period was almost entirely under the seas.