posted on Jun, 5 2014 @ 07:26 AM
Yes Im not surprised Zaph,
And its well timed, at least in terms of kicking the manufacturers to shorten their development cycles. There is more to this though than just a new
engine. Part of any efficiency gain is to rework the wing which has always been hampered by the 80m box rule. Airbus freely admitted years ago that in
an ideal world the current A-380 wing span should be at least 6m longer for the plan form they have used, so folding tips (now that Boeing is talking
about really using them on the 777X) would make sense. They already went some way towards fixing some issues about 2-3 years back by changing the wing
twist rate a degree or two from about airframe #55 onwards, but it just isn't enough. Rolls has hinted at some game changing engine development
technologies for a while now, and it will need it. Some have been calling for either the 11 abreast seating plan or the -900 stretch, my money is on
the stretch. As pointed out by others, 11 abreast seating particularly in a high density layout runs into problems with baggage. Even if you can fit
everyone's luggage on board, it leaves no room for cargo, and cargo equals premium dollars. This is particularly important in a market that has an
oversupply of capacity, and therefore thin margins. Why cram more bodies on board when you can make more money per cubic meter off underfloor cargo? A
stretch however gives room for both. What's more any aerodynamic changes that are applied to the -800 fuselage will see a commensurate rise in range
and that opens up new city pairings. Additionally Airbus has yet to activate the capacity of the A-380's centre wing box area tank capacity. If all
these measures are put in place we could see an A-380-800 NEO with more than 10% efficiency gains, and that means a take-off weight around or in
excess of 600 tonnes, already the highest IGW versions coming off the line have reached 575 tonnes. It could reach in to the 18-20% range, and that
makes holy grail routes like SYD-LHR non stop possible.
As for the relative happiness of its operators, those that are sane (not my employer) are happy enough with them so long as the loads are good (Does
that not apply to all airliners?). Regardless of the fact that it has 4 engines instead of 2, when fully loaded an A-380 is a money maker. I don't
believe that individual airframes will have the longevity of say the 747 but so what? We live in a design obsolescence society where machines have a
set life. The upside of such a philosophy is that better machines can come along quicker, and that can only be a good thing.
LEE.