Decreasing birthrate in developed countries.

I see a lot of threads on ATS about WWIII and the end of the world concerning asteroid hits or super viruses or anything else you can think of. Well here it is!

This is something which is real and is happening right now and could lead to the economic collapse and decline of western civilization as we know it. It is happening but it is not as exciting or fast as WWIII or a big asteroid hit.

Decreasing birthrate in the western and developed world. Aging population. This has a number of very big problems.

As the population ages more people retire and draw a government pension, there are fewer and fewer workers to pay taxes and the increasing costs of healthcare and aged care lead to growing government debt. Japan is a leading example of this. In a recent documentary I saw it was estimated that if the current trend continues zero babies will be born in Japan by the year 3,000.

I have a theory that as the developing world catches up to the west and has an increasing standard of living their birthrate will begin to drop aswell and they will be faced with the slow aging and dying out of the population, which the developed world is already facing. A slow aging and dying out of the population. It may reach a point where the population begins to decrease and trend towards zero.

A recent article in New Scientist magazine says evolutionary scientists are at a loss to explain the decreasing birthrate in developed countries and there seems to be no clear evolutionary reason as the cause but there are a number of good theories which I find interesting. If the current trend continues developed countries and developing countries which reach a certain standard of living and education in the future could find their populations decreasing at an exponential rate.


Warning Bell for Developed Countries: Declining Birth Rates

www.forbes.com...


secular birth rates fall

www.smh.com.au...


THE ECONOMICS OF DECLINING BIRTH RATES

www.futurity.org...


What Happens When Half The World Stops Making Babies

www.theglobalmail.org...


Japanese Birth Rate Plunges To Record Low As Death-Rate Hits Record High

www.zerohedge.com...


Falling birth rates mean Japan 'won't have any children under 15 by 3011'

www.dailymail.co.uk...


I have been very interested in evolutionary biology for quite a while and especially human evolutionary biology. I have a few theories on why this may be occurring and I've seen a few good theories from evolutionary biologists which make sense.

a reply to: JimTSpock

The way things are going, it’s entirely possible that in little more than a generation world population will stop growing, and that our children will live to see a planet with many millions, maybe a billion, fewer people on it than there are now.

You mean an end to the current social / economic / political world then, not the actual world. I don't see this as a problem but actually an improvement.

There will of course be lots of demographic changes but it doesn't seem to be a threat to the human species. More of a danger to the status quo.

a reply to: JimTSpock

Slow erosion doom porn. How Excruciating!

a reply to: JimTSpock

Perhaps this is mother natures answer to over population, theres too many of us so shes stopping us from making anymore. Cant be a bad thing realy seeing as were destroying the earth.

And the 3rd worlders will keep on breeding until they cannot feed themselves anymore.
We will all be equalized, one way, or the other way.

Perhaps our governments have us working so many hours a week..(60+ Sat/Sun incl) just to keep our heads above water that when we get home we are just waaaaay too tired to get the freak on..

a reply to: JimTSpock

Sounds like that Clive Owen movie, can't think of it now, where everyone is sterile. Then somehow there is a pregnant women and everyone is out to get her.

Edit
Children of Men
I liked it. however the movie isn't about taxes like your post, but kinda almost the same.

Wu

originally posted by: Soloprotocol
Perhaps our governments have us working so many hours a week..(60+ Sat/Sun incl) just to keep our heads above water that when we get home we are just waaaaay too tired to get the freak on..

When you have nothing to do but be poor, and ****, I would have to agree.

a reply to: JimTSpock

Epigenetic effects of environmental contamination cause infertility.

Don't worry - the "3rd world" will catch up.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

A decreasing population is a good thing, good for all of us and good for the Earth. In an ecology that is not intentionally messed up by us humans, no matter how many offspring a species has, the average who develop to maturity and reproduce is two. in other words, a balanced species replaces itself. In non-developed countries there is a large birth rate because, on average, people, including children, died at a young age. Also, in non-developed countries, i.e.: farming economies, you need more hands to tend the crops. Because we in the developing world see disease and death as bad, particularly among children, the presence of vaccines and other medicine has created an increasing population. Nature is being held back by science all in the name of disease prevention, which is seen as a GOOD thing when ecologically speaking, it creates an imbalance and is a BAD thing.

As these populations enter a more developed stage, the need for more children decreases and, in theory, the population falls. Families no longer have many children because they donlt need them and they are expensive to raise. It becomes economically unviable. The earth can handle 10 billion, and it's approaching that. More and it gets iffy. Anything we can do to reduce the population, or at least stabilize it at present levels, is a good thing. Yes, this may disrupt the pension/economy dynamic in the near term and even cause individual distress, but the overall stability of the human population is a desirable goal, and to achieve this via natural economic trends rather than government intervention is overall a good thing because the alternative is a massive plague that takes out a large portion of the population.

What it really means is an end to the era of the baby boomers, and we should all rejoice at that.

My thought is that because of all the tech we have there is little need for actual human interaction in a lot of cases. Most kids/young adults growing up in developed countries have electronics in their faces almost every waking moment. This is how they interact now. Same theory I have for Japan, but it is sped up because of the populace there and the tech available there. They can get everything they need from tech toys and never have to worry about others feelings. There is no need for a child if you do not want to interact with anyone in the actual flesh.

Take away the tech and I would bet a million dollars we would have a lot more babies being born because it would force us to interact again.

In a way, I would love for a massive CME to hit the earth and wipe all tech out just to not have to argue with my kids when I tell them it is time to go outside and actually play....

originally posted by: Toadmund
And the 3rd worlders will keep on breeding until they cannot feed themselves anymore.
We will all be equalized, one way, or the other way.

Your right - I've plotted the growth stats Africa is the continent that population is still growing quickly, the rest of the world peeked in the 60's. If everything stays as it is going the world population will never reach 10 Billion. (Like to talk about the hall of souls being empty) but instead would make mention of Mars and moon bases. We are too young to have peaked we need to expand our horizons.

I think we are already feeling the slowing down of the world economies, we have been abundant because their have been more babies to feed. For them that like the idea of our decline, for mothers earths wellbeing I would say that we are still living in a completely abundant universe. There is no limit to how much we can grow.

Hans Rosling video on global birth rates. I love this guy, he makes the trends clear and there is no doom predicted. He believes we'll level out at around ten billion. It's a natural trend to level at a low birth rate. Large families are a product of high child mortality and economic circumstances of regions. Low family numbers reflect a stable society. Sorry to ruin the doom porn.

Gotta love statistics, the anti-viagra to doom porn.

originally posted by: Lompyt
a reply to: JimTSpock

Perhaps this is mother natures answer to over population, theres too many of us so shes stopping us from making anymore. Cant be a bad thing realy seeing as were destroying the earth.

Overpopulation is a myth. The OP is correct the world is at the beginning of the end for the human race.

The elite see this as a good thing. Why? with technology improving at such a rapid pace economists predict 70% fewer jobs within 20 years or less, most likely less. 3D printing will make manufacturing jobs obsolete. Robotics will take away labor intensive and "menial" work.

The human race is dying and Japan is in the forefront. All developed countries have negative birth rates. Even Mexico is only .01% above replacement rate in births. The only countries left with positive birth replacement rates have extremely high mortality rates.

Yes, the human race will probably be extinct within 200 years or less.

It would make sense to have declining human birth rates when you're aborting hundreds of millions of human fetuses.

Granted, not the sole culprit. But I'm sure it's a prominent factor in the equation.

originally posted by: NthOther
It would make sense to have declining human birth rates when you're aborting hundreds of millions of human fetuses.

Granted, not the sole culprit. But I'm sure it's a prominent factor in the equation.

That is not the only reason.

Porn has so affected men that many can not get an erection with a real woman, look it up.
That is one of the problems Japan is having.

Having a child has become too expensive and with birth control and abortion making it an option not to have one, many if not most people are self limiting.

Magazines, TV etc are promoting the joys of childlessness, check it out and watch, you'll see it.

Even Muslim countries are below replacement levels, fathers who love their daughters are not forcing them to marry as they have in the past. Women are so wanting to separate from men in the Muslim countries a city is being built for women only. Check it out for yourself.

Now that having children is optional and with no reason to have children for economic reasons (ie farm help) children have sort of become expensive pets or expensive extensions of one's ego.

a reply to: schuyler

I agree, with one exception that earth is over populated.

It is not.

"You" are looking thru the eyes of a person who uses currency and other no needed materialistic things life, slave to the 8 hr work shifts and having a home and 2 cars.

You cant draw a small circle around you and say there is not enough space.

In reality this earth can support at least 20 Billion(that is still not including Antarctica and extreme desert conditions).

So what is the problem? The smart people who work hard, do and make things know that the odds are stacked against them and don't want to bring children into a world where they will be treated as slaves and made to work themselves to death to support the corrupt, stupid and lazy.

The declining birth rate scares the corrupt elite because the fertile people are the welfare class, and the illegal immigrants who take more in taxes than they will ever pay, and the taxpayers who pay more than they take are refusing to play anymore.
The elite know that it is a rare outlier to get a good honest worker out of shiftless parents.

This is the result of communism the good workers quit being so good.

a reply to: VforVendettea

"I don't want to bring children into this world" is one of the biggest excuse people push.

There is more to that than that alone for their decision.
Most common reason being not enough time for them because they still want to enjoy their life.

People marry late, or not even marry at all any more. Children grow up with difficulties because there is no mother and/or father figures, they will have trouble achieving success themselves.

Only difference is the "fertile" people are less selfish and materialistic.

Not all countries in the world get "welfare". Some have kids because that is what species do.