Monster El Nino may be brewing-experts say

a reply to: WhiteAlice

Oh please there have always been alterations in what we consider normal seasonal weather. People always think that the weather is worse than it used to be as well. As far as I can recall there have always been differences from year to year.

The climate has always been shifting as well. History is full of unseasonably cold years and unseasonably hot years.

I kind of associate it with the "what is the world coming to" line of thinking. People forget that how they remember the past is not representative of how it was.

All Right We're finally going to get a nice summer again up here. Sounds like possibly a good winter next year also.

Oh This is supposed to be doom porn. Sorry. Let's see...Terrible terrible news.

After the hot hot summer we just had here in Western Australia i really don't want anymore heat in our bit of the world! I am sure the rain would be good for Cali though?
But then in this situation i guess the bad would outweigh the good?

I have to agree that the weather is changing but it always has done if you step back and look at the big picture you can see that while we have our 4 seasons they all are different each time they come around hence why we have cold snaps and heat waves, and obviously through history with ice ages and all that its always changing it always will we just evolve & adapt too it.. Change probably is coming i don't doubt it because the weather has changed for aslong as i can remember.

originally posted by: rickymouse
All Right

We're finally going to get a nice summer again up here. Sounds like possibly a good winter next year also.

Oh

This is supposed to be doom porn. Sorry. Let's see...Terrible terrible news.

Yep. Doom Porn. Gotta love it.

The American desert Southwest has always had droughts that have been known to last for up to a hundred years or more. Maybe this is the pattern shift we are seeing the beginning of? Certainly unlike the last really blistering hot summer we had a few years ago, none of my yard plants are budding or flowering early, my tulips haven't even bloomed and my clematis vine has started putting up new growth (the year it was blistering hot, it was getting set to bloom by early/mid May when it normally doesn't until early/Mid June).

I'm not saying that there won't be an El Nino this year. We are actually overdue for one and conditions in the Pacific look good for it, but they have also been forecasting strong or super El Ninos every year for the last few years now.

I think we'll see warmer temps in some areas, like the southwest and normal temps to cooler temps in other. Remember, the Great Lakes are still pretty frozen and that affects a lot of climate for a large area of the US.

I've always said I'd have been a weatherman/climatologist but I take pride in my work.

So, were supposed to have hot summer?
Does that mean I need to prepare for rain in reality?

Just yesterday they said rain all week, Its been sunshine all day so far today???

X

Am I going to be the first one to say it? Okay, maybe it's fallout from the Fukushima disaster.

DOOM PORN ?

Not at all, I can sure use the rain in Arizona.

Hope the monsoons come like never before.

a reply to: theyknowwhoyouare

Actually, looking at history of climate and calculating the average highs and lows of temperatures for 100 years of data is something that I did actually have to do for climatology.

There is a huge difference between science and opinion. Science requires testing and validation of opinion while any random person with or without qualifications can simply say whatever they want to believe.

a reply to: lostbook

you're right and it's coming faster than we had predicted. i do think it's human nature to deny that what is coming. it's very hard to accept.

a reply to: pasiphae

Of course it is. Regardless of causation, the fact that the overall climate of the earth is altering and it is having some rather serious consequences is a truly frightening prospect. People can say it's "doom porn" all they want but the fact remains that we have numerous classes of critters (not even just species but entire classes--huge difference) that are dying. That's disturbing and is absolutely atypical. Many of them are getting sick and dying from infections to fungi. Why?

It's not comfortable and it's scary as hell. It's a lot easier to look out your window and think everything looks just as it always has without thinking about the way things once were. When I was a teen, I remember Monarch butterflies showing up every year, finding those fuzzy brown caterpillars that were like teddy bears virtually everywhere to the point where you had to watch where you were riding your bike lest you run one over. I haven't seen either of those in years and I'm living in the same area as back then. Where they'd go? To look at how things have changed in those minor ways is like looking into the face of Death and one that we have barely any control over.

People don't like feeling helpless, like something is so spiraled out of control that it risks the future. We all know that the earth has gone through various forms of life over its billions of years of age. Nature is a brutal mistress. I remember learning in an environmental ethics course that 80% of all things that are born in nature die. Sobering really but even more so when that normal figure is getting higher.

I can't blame people for wanting to not see it. I suffered from depression 20 years ago and part of that was watching what was happening in those forests. Ignorance is bliss. It really, really is.

a reply to: WhiteAlice

You mean woolly worms? The highways out here are paved with them every fall. We still have lots of Monarchs, too, but sadly, Mexico is threatening to chop down their wintering forest which will pretty much end them for everyone.

originally posted by: jaynkeel
I will not complain one bit about the extreme heat.........................Ever, especially after that sucky winter that has lasted here until this week.

I'm going to hold you to that remark...because come July/August, I will be whining loudly as I melt into my shoes because of the humidity. But yes, this past winter did suck big time.

I wold just like to say that I called it. The California drought last year was all I needed to know this was coming. Lived in Ca for 30 something years and a drought year always comes before an El Nino year.

originally posted by: calstorm
I wold just like to say that I called it. The California drought last year was all I needed to know this was coming. Lived in Ca for 30 something years and a drought year always comes before an El Nino year.

And what happens then?

Floods? Mudslides? I'm actually curious.

a reply to: ketsuko

I'm glad that they both are still in your area. The loss of the Monarchs here is a neighborhood discussion as one of them has a relative that works with Monarchs. Our block is actually planting Monarch friendly flowers to encourage them. So far, not a whole lot of luck. The population of Monarchs here in the Pac NW have declined dramatically since the 90's due to a number of suspected factors. And yep, I'm talking about woolly bears which are typically a pretty hardy caterpillar. Their absence is just weird but haven't found anything talking about that so maybe it's just my neighborhood.

Kind of ironic but there's a large hailstorm that just kicked up that is so dense that it looks like it's snowing and the house is roaring from it. Good timing.

P.S. The very loud sirens from police and fire that followed it were great, too.

a reply to: WhiteAlice

About the monarchs ...

It looks like there may be two different populations according to this map.

It looks like the Rockies and the Great Basin serve as a pretty big natural barrier for monarchs separating them into a Western and Eastern population. It may be that there is a problem with your Western population while our Eastern population is still fairly strong.

But as I mentioned, with the wintering forests in Mexico under threat, all the monarchs are in trouble.

a reply to: WhiteAlice


Oh you mean that small period of time represents the norm? 100 years is is nothing in the grand scheme of it all.
Also there is a lot of manipulated data along the way too.

You and the rest "BELIEVE" this to be true. It does not mean it is.

I believe forcing corporations and idiots to be more eco friendly is good. But stop acting like climate change is fact b/c it is not. All we know is that the earth goes through cycles of hot and cold periods. The balance of our planet's climate could change in an instant. We know little of all the factors that apply to the balance of our climate.

Bring it on !

I still have 3 feet of snow in my yard.