Monster El Nino may be brewing-experts say

Here we go, ATS! According to this article, scientists are sounding the alarm on a dangerous El Nino this year.

"Averaged across the equatorial Pacific, there is a far larger than normal amount of heat, which is a necessary precondition for an El Niño. At the moment, the amount of heat is comparable to that prior to the extreme El Niño of 1997-98."

Another researcher bullish on the prospects of another El Niño is Wenju Cai, a climate scientist at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Australia who is the lead author of a paper published this January in Nature Climate Change that predicted the frequency of extreme El Niño events will double this century.

This is Doom Porn if I ever saw it. What say you, ATS?

www.nbcnews.com...

a reply to: lostbook

Well, I guess it offsets the bitterly cold winter we just had. These extreme weather patterns just keep on coming. Everyone was complaining about the freezing cold, now we'll all be complaining about the extreme heat.

originally posted by: lostbook
Here we go, ATS! According to this article, scientists are sounding the alarm on a dangerous El Nino this year.

...This is Doom Porn if I ever saw it. What say you, ATS?

...

Of course, on ATS, you are lambasted for such 'doom porn'.
When "Experts" sound the alarm - albeit, qualified with "maybe", it's OK.
Just like weather forecasting... Some say science/education & technology have yielded great improvements over yesteryears... I say "it's just as shoddy as I ever recall"... Might do just as well with a Farmer's Almanac.

Nevertheless - guess I'll get an umbrella as that would be the only possible difference El Nino might add to the mix 'round this neck of the...desert.

I will not complain one bit about the extreme heat.........................Ever, especially after that sucky winter that has lasted here until this week.

The article also says that these major El Nino events should double this century. We're gonna be in for a wild ride: there will be food shortages, clean water shortages, more earthquakes, more powerful storms, more conflict(s), more, More, MORE!

Not to sound all "Doomy and Gloomy" but this kind of news kinda makes me upset.

a reply to: lostbook
...and more, larger insects

"el g-lobo nino"
the last few years we were boating by now on georgian bay
ice still hasn't gone out

originally posted by: lostbook
a reply to: lostbook
...and more, larger insects

I can't lie. That crossed my mind.

originally posted by: lostbook
Not to sound all "Doomy and Gloomy" but this kind of news kinda makes me upset.

I tried to find the article, but can't now. Will still be looking…

There was a local story here in Phoenix from a naturalist that tracks all of nature's signs for extreme weather, or weather pattern changes. From my recollections, there are a few alarming firsts he saw:

1) whip-tail lizards appearing sooner than typical -- they're a sign of when summer temperatures arrive.

2) rattle snakes mating early

3) wild succulents/agave having no new growth (to protect the plant when it's hot)

4) earliest-ever haboob

5) boring (carpenter) bees very prevalent, very early in season

6) cactus blossoms much sooner than expected


He's been seeing this type of activity for the past 20 years and has been pretty accurately predicted long-term desert weather trends for a while now. This all indicates, according to him, higher-temperatures earlier than normal, and lasting longer than normal. And heat in AZ tends to effect up to 1,000 miles east and northeast. And this was before the El Nino data.

originally posted by: TiedDestructor

originally posted by: lostbook
a reply to: lostbook
...and more, larger insects

I can't lie. That crossed my mind.

Yeah, I'll really be nervous when an ancient virus is released into the environment. One that has been kept in check for thousands or millions of years by the cold temps in the Arctic or Antarctic. Hey, it could happen.

originally posted by: SkepticOverlord

originally posted by: lostbook
Not to sound all "Doomy and Gloomy" but this kind of news kinda makes me upset.

I tried to find the article, but can't now. Will still be looking…

There was a local story here in Phoenix from a naturalist that tracks all of nature's signs for extreme weather, or weather pattern changes. From my recollections, there are a few alarming firsts he saw:

1) whip-tail lizards appearing sooner than typical -- they're a sign of when summer temperatures arrive.

2) rattle snakes mating early

3) wild succulents/agave having no new growth (to protect the plant when it's hot)

4) earliest-ever haboob

5) boring (carpenter) bees very prevalent, very early in season

6) cactus blossoms much sooner than expected


He's been seeing this type of activity for the past 20 years and has been pretty accurately predicted long-term desert weather trends for a while now. This all indicates, according to him, higher-temperatures earlier than normal, and lasting longer than normal. And heat in AZ tends to effect up to 1,000 miles east and northeast. And this was before the El Nino data.

Phoenix....I was born in Phoenix at the Maricopa Hospital. Anyway, sorry you can't find the article. Try this:

www.nbcnews.com...

originally posted by: Danbones
"el g-lobo nino"
the last few years we were boating by now on georgian bay
ice still hasn't gone out

Yeah, it's weather extremes. Extreme Heat in some places...Extreme Cold in others. Major flooding in places..major earthquakes, etc. It takes a wider view than just your immediate area to realize the reality of it all. There are extremes worldwide...

a reply to: SkepticOverlord

Along those lines:

www.fs.fed.us...
www.fs.fed.us...
www.bioone.org...

Changes in the Pac NW started occurring around 20 years ago. I was a biology and botany student who went out and watched a forest slowly die year after year due to bark beetle infestations. The theory was and still is that the beetles were having a longer reproductive period due to warming and were being allowed to proliferate. It's a hell of a thing to watch a huge stretch of forest die. I still cry about it.

This is what it looked like: www.nsf.gov...

a reply to: lostbook

What were the precipitation patters in 1997/98 across the American Southwest?

I was overseas in Asia those years.

You do realize these fools have no idea what they are talking about don't you?

The weather will behave as it will. Times change and we adapt.

I doubt we will see any substantial changes in our lifetimes. Maybe a slight easing into hotter or colder normal temps.

originally posted by: lostbook
a reply to: lostbook
...and more, larger insects

Oh, don't say things like that..

originally posted by: SkepticOverlord

originally posted by: lostbook
Not to sound all "Doomy and Gloomy" but this kind of news kinda makes me upset.

I tried to find the article, but can't now. Will still be looking…

There was a local story here in Phoenix from a naturalist that tracks all of nature's signs for extreme weather, or weather pattern changes. From my recollections, there are a few alarming firsts he saw:

1) whip-tail lizards appearing sooner than typical -- they're a sign of when summer temperatures arrive.

2) rattle snakes mating early

3) wild succulents/agave having no new growth (to protect the plant when it's hot)

4) earliest-ever haboob

5) boring (carpenter) bees very prevalent, very early in season

6) cactus blossoms much sooner than expected


He's been seeing this type of activity for the past 20 years and has been pretty accurately predicted long-term desert weather trends for a while now. This all indicates, according to him, higher-temperatures earlier than normal, and lasting longer than normal. And heat in AZ tends to effect up to 1,000 miles east and northeast. And this was before the El Nino data.

I just moved to Tucson in Sept and every one was saying it will snow there will be winter, but than it seems like winter didn't even happen I feel like Ive been living in an eternal fall and its now starting to get hot again. I don't know if it has anything to do with long term climate patterns but it did seem strange to me.

originally posted by: theyknowwhoyouare
You do realize these fools have no idea what they are talking about don't you?

The weather will behave as it will. Times change and we adapt.

I doubt we will see any substantial changes in our lifetimes. Maybe a sight easing into hotter or colder normal temps.

Sure if you look out your window, odds are you're not going to see any different than you normally do. However, there are, in fact, little cues that things are a-changing. I remember a couple Halloweens ago trailing behind a couple of mothers and hearing one nearly panic at seeing a lily in full bloom in a front yard. The other one dismissed it with the statement that the owner must have just planted it. Both ignored the fully blooming clematis behind it so guess what, you can actually spot it in your own neighborhood if you actually look.

I used to do field work and went into some of the natural areas in the Pac NW. See my above post. Things are dying and not just some forests here and there. All sorts of things are occurring and some have been for some time. Here's a tiny handful:

www.nwhc.usgs.gov...
www.scientificamerican.com...
www.nytimes.com...
www.epa.gov...

a reply to: lostbook

But I thought all scientists were liars?.....and anything that had any basis in science was just a ploy by TPTB to con and confuse us?




Unless it's doom porn of course....then all scientists are cool and on the money