Scientists suggest 70% chance of strong El Nino 2014 (may be hottest year on record)

There are tons of links here are a few:

New Scientist

Accuweather

Australian BOM

Earth Sky

By the way, the warm water just below the ocean’s surface this year is on par with that of the biggest El Niño ever recorded, in 1997-98. That event caused $35 billion in damages and was blamed for around 23,000 deaths worldwide.

Will be watching the S.American news as they tend to see the effects 1st (no fish) also be interesting to see how much the politicians and media spin this if it does prove to a strong one.

"The figure below, which is based on data from the US National Center for Health Statisticsfor 2001-2007, shows that on average 7,200 Americans die each day during the months of December, January, February and March, compared to the average 6,400 who die daily during the rest of the year. On this basis, there were 95,000 “excess” deaths during the 121 days in the cold months (December to March, assuming a non-leap year)." wattsupwiththat.com...

"The title of the post, of course, assumes that an El Niño event will form this year and carry over into the next.
This post is intended for persons new to the topic of El Niño events—and for those who are familiar with them. It should help provide a number of different perspectives on the evolution of an El Niño and supplement our earlier post An Illustrated Introduction to the Basic Processes that Drive El Niño and La Niña Events." wattsupwiththat.com...

Lots of good animations showing how this thing works .peace

Interesting.
Because the farmers almanac says we (in my state) are suppose to have a hot summer.
Which I'm happy about, as it has been a few years since we have had one.

reply to post by chiefsmom


Last year was pretty good here in London. We actually had a good summer for once, after washouts for two years running. In fact last year was so good that I had tan marks on my feet well into November. So I for one welcome a hot year!

On reflection I am sorry if anyone dies from heat related problems of course.

El Nino has a good side.
Typically, it brings rain to the drought stricken areas of the West Coast of the US.

They can call it whatever they want, but I'll stick with climate change, global warming, whatever. Remember, last year was one of "the hottest on record" without El Nino. They already know this year is going to surpass last year and the year after that will surpass this year...Eventually they'll run out of names for it and have to face the truth.

Rezlooper
They can call it whatever they want, but I'll stick with climate change, global warming, whatever. Remember, last year was one of "the hottest on record" without El Nino. They already know this year is going to surpass last year and the year after that will surpass this year...Eventually they'll run out of names for it and have to face the truth.

Last year was not hot here at all. The kids got to go swimming maybe five or six times. And this winter broke hundreds of records for cold. We're all hoping for some hot weather.

reply to post by Rezlooper


"New paper finds climate skeptical blogosphere is important source of expertise, reinterpretation, & scientific knowledge production .According to the authors, “A network of 171 individual blogs is identified, with three blogs in particular found to be the most central: Climate Audit, JoNova and Watts Up With That. These blogs predominantly focus on the scientific element of the climate debate, providing either a direct scientifically-based challenge to mainstream climate science, or a critique of the conduct of the climate science system."
wattsupwiththat.com...

Oh and about the AGWarming "On Jan. 6, 2014, alone, approximately 50 daily record low temperatures were set, from Colorado to Alabama to New York, according to the National Weather Service. In some places temperatures were 40 degrees Fahrenheit colder than average. Now, an animation created from NASA satellite data shows just how the Arctic air brought a deep chill to the U.S this winter." wattsupwiththat.com...
I guess we could say it's colder because it's warmer lol

"The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 15 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386
2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195
2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243
2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165
2013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112
2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220
2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074
2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009
2013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.190
2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.031
2013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.020
2013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.057
2014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.029
2014 2 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.103
2014 3 +0.170 +0.337 +0.002 -0.002
wattsupwiththat.com...

"Times are not easy for true-believers just now. The RSS satellite lower-troposphere temperature anomaly for March, just in, shows no global warming at all for 17 years 8 months. This remarkable 212-month period, enduring from August 1996 to March 2014, represents half of the entire 423-month satellite record since it began in January 1979.
wattsupwiththat.com...

jjkenobi

Rezlooper
They can call it whatever they want, but I'll stick with climate change, global warming, whatever. Remember, last year was one of "the hottest on record" without El Nino. They already know this year is going to surpass last year and the year after that will surpass this year...Eventually they'll run out of names for it and have to face the truth.

Last year was not hot here at all. The kids got to go swimming maybe five or six times. And this winter broke hundreds of records for cold. We're all hoping for some hot weather.

Yes, your "here" is not every where. I'm in northern WI and we had a cold and snowy winter like we haven't seen since the 80's but that doesn't mean that the world itself didn't see drastically warmer temperatures.

the2ofusr1
reply to post by Rezlooper

 

Oh and about the AGWarming "On Jan. 6, 2014, alone, approximately 50 daily record low temperatures were set, from Colorado to Alabama to New York, according to the National Weather Service. In some places temperatures were 40 degrees Fahrenheit colder than average. Now, an animation created from NASA satellite data shows just how the Arctic air brought a deep chill to the U.S this winter." wattsupwiththat.com...
I guess we could say it's colder because it's warmer lol

Once again, another person trying to claim the world is freezing because here in one part of North America it was colder. lol. Drop your ego and realize that there is more to the world than your neck of the woods. And yes, you were colder because it was a lot warmer...in Alaska! Why you're checking out all your statistics why don't you check out how warm it's been in Alaska for the past two years, same as the Eastern Siberia and Greenland...Where it really matters because when that ice starts a melting, it's going to get really interesting.

Watts up with that. That's your source? What's up with that? lol.

Why don't you try some statistics from real sources...there are countless sources that will show you the truth.

I love strong El Nino years in Calif.

Nice snow in the mountains and plenty of rain in the desert.

Wish we really had global warming so that it would happen more often.

reply to post by ANNED

Nice snow in the mountains and plenty of rain in the desert.

You just brought back a memory of the Mojave in bloom!
Thanks for that.
I saw it in 1983 el Nino. I saw boulders move positions due to flash flooding too!

reply to post by Rezlooper


Oh there are regions that as climate changes , (as it always has) will be wetter dryer colder and warmer ..The nice thing about us humans is that we can jump on a plane and pick where we want to live ...As far as WUWT for a source , well if you would have read the first link to the study you would see that it is a good source if you want to look at the science and see a good discussion happening within the comment section .But if you want to hold fast to the AGW meme then pick other places where they really don't discuss it much .....peace

I find it amusing that every year now we have an “el nino”.
I don't recall ever hearing the term before the 80's, and its supposed to be “anomalous” by its very definition. Yet somehow this “anomaly” seems to have become the yearly norm.

What is this? Climate change operatives front-loading the summer propaganda season?

defcon5
I find it amusing that every year now we have an “el nino”.
I don't recall ever hearing the term before the 80's, and its supposed to be “anomalous” by its very definition. Yet somehow this “anomaly” seems to have become the yearly norm.

Oh, no - el nino has been around a while. Here is a video:

weather channel predicts near normals and a late summer here in onterrible, kanuckistan

reply to post by ANNED


I second that! Here in Cali we had like one week of winter and yesterday it was almost 90... I'm in central/northern Cali not SoCal! The lack of rain has been awful though last summer wasn't bad. Hopefully this summer won't be too hot either. I'm more of a cold weather kinda gal

reply to post by johnb


I hope so - something needs to balance out the effects of all that volcanic ash.

...It's a nice day here today but we're back below zero this weekend. Yuck.

Here's the Weatherbell summary for the El Nino and the summary using JAMSTEC (the Japanese Reasearch Model, among others, and a composite approach).

They're calling for a slightly warmer than normal summer in some areas, but slightly cooler summer around the upper Great Lakes and parts of the upper Midwest. They're also expecting a slightly wetter summer, but that's normal for El Nino, and right now, they're not seeing it lasting past the winter which they see as potentially nasty/snowy in some areas. But, that's very far out.