REGULAR FOLKS can make better intelligence forcasts than the pros who have assess to classified info

This is a pretty cool article in which a group calling themselves The Good Judgement Project have been asking regular, ordinary folks to make predictions about global political events and then comparing their accuracy to those made by the professional intelligence community. Turns out, the average Joe, with access to just what he can find on Google search has a better success rate than the CIA & NSA pros who have access to all the top secret info they can handle.

So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent

For the past three years, Rich and 3,000 other average people have been quietly making probability estimates about everything from Venezuelan gas subsidies to North Korean politics as part of , an experiment put together by three well-known psychologists and some people inside the intelligence community.

According to one report, the predictions made by the Good Judgment Project are often better even than intelligence analysts with access to classified information, and many of the people involved in the project have been astonished by its success at making accurate predictions.

When Rich, who is in her 60s, first heard about the experiment, she didn't think she would be especially good at predicting world events. She didn't know a lot about international affairs, and she hadn't taken much math in school.

But she signed up, got a little training in how to estimate probabilities from the people running the program, and then was given access to a website that listed dozens of carefully worded questions on events of interest to the intelligence community, along with a place for her to enter her numerical estimate of their likelihood.

She's in the top 1 percent of the 3,000 forecasters now involved in the experiment, which means she has been classified as a superforecaster, someone who is extremely accurate when predicting stuff

NPR

They say Rich is 30% more accurate than the intelligence pros, proving that the term "government intelligence" is a contradiction in terms.

It looks like they may be recruiting for new forecasters in the next few weeks so maybe anybody who thinks they might be a little bit psychic or just likes to make wild guesses about geopolitical world events can apply to participate in the project to see just how accurate they can be when someone keeps track.

Anyone interested can register at the site posted at the top of this thread. Good luck and happy predicting.

reply to post by FortAnthem

The CIA has less interest in accuracy than common sense would dictate. The reports they produce are agenda driven, and being wrong can bring in more funds than being right.

reply to post by FortAnthem



REGULAR FOLKS can make better intelligence forcasts than the pros who have assess to classified info - See more at: www.abovetopsecret.com...


Well titled, lmao.

reply to post by Im2keul


For some reason, Firefox doesn't spell check stuff in the title section of threads. I still have time to fix it but, I think I'll leave it be for the humor factor.

This isn't the first time I've been embarrassed by a misspelled title and it probably won't be the last.

reply to post by FortAnthem


Nice, good to know where they are getting their info.
Comedy aside good thread,

I looked it up; apparently the US gubment spends 52.6 BILLION dollars a year on intelligence gathering and covert operations and such.

After looking at this study group, it really makes me wonder how much of that money is wasted on useless intelligence gathering when regular, everyday folks can guess with greater accuracy than those intelligence officials who we're spending all those billions on.

I'll bet the people who participate in this project aren't even paid.

reply to post by FortAnthem

That's what 'they' say. Did that figure by any chance include Hilary's $6B in "lost" money?

We throw that number "billions" around these days like its nothing. I wish people would never lose perspective of exactly how much one of those things are. Think about doling out a thousand Million Dollar stacks of money to the people you work with. How many times could you do it? I've got about a hundred guys working for me. One of those Billions means I could give 10 million to each of my employees. They'd never have to work again. A hundred guys instantly stop working and retire. Just think about it. [/rant]

The USG spends way too much money on intel. There's virtually no ROI.

jeez they should do a dough drop on ATS
i betcha we could out do em all
fands
re spelling
nice to know where the pros heads are really at...

Interesting article and something to understand going forward.

Here's an abstract of the research and findings: The Good Judgment Project

The Intelligence Community, at large, is also developing "social tools" to encourage analysts to collaborate and develop better forecasting tools. So, the question does lie in the final interpretation of the data. The key, I believe, is that US political "transparency" will never allow political figures to divulge the actual decision-making process as it applies to a larger party-led (or personal) agenda.

So, yes this form of "groupthink" is valuable, but I believe there are also components of strategy and intent that cannot be taken into account by larger agencies with vested interests in the outcomes.

Common sense and logic never really fails I think

reply to post by FortAnthem


This is a highly contentious and dubious "project" with data that is often misreported an HIGHLY biased.


In other words its BS.....but good to see people flag this garbage, says everything about the intelligence of THIS community!!!

I posted this story in Deconstructing Disinfo last week.
To see my thoughts and some others, go to www.abovetopsecret.com...

Snarl
reply to post by FortAnthem

 

The CIA has less interest in accuracy than common sense would dictate. The reports they produce are agenda driven, and being wrong can bring in more funds than being right.

You absolutely nailed that one, Snarl.

My only quibble with it is that you narrowed your scope way too far.

ALL intelligence agencies operate this way to one degree or another, although I agree that the CIA is the worst when it comes to agenda-driven intelligence gathering/analysis/reporting.

The good news is that there are also a few people within those agencies who actually try and make some real sense of the data that's gathered. And a smart intelligence director usually solicits their input too before making big decisions.

But they don't always do it. And they're not always smart...

BuzzyWigs
I posted this story in Deconstructing Disinfo last week.
To see my thoughts and some others, go to www.abovetopsecret.com...

Please add further comments to the ongoing discussion in the above linked thread.
Thanks

**Thread Closed**