Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

Just discovered this delightful blog by Maia Majumder. Here are the last 2 paragraphs of her last entry.

How #Ebola2014 Got to Guinea

......Because Guinea is considered a habitable environment for two of the three Ebola-carrying species, the infected migrant bats would likely have assimilated pretty quickly… And in their daily activities – namely, fighting and sexual contact – they would have been able to pass the virus on to the “local” members of their species, eventually meeting the 5% threshold deemed necessary for humans to contract the disease [5]. When paired with common cultural practices of consuming bats and bushmeat, it becomes clear why the population was particularly vulnerable to this brand of zoonosis [9]… And now that the virus has been introduced among local reservoir populations, it’s uncertain whether Guinea will ever truly be rid of it.

No outbreak is an island; it lives within an ecosystem that is much larger than the virus, the patients, and the communities affected. Managing #Ebola2014 and its aftermath will require significant capacity across multiple disciplines – not only from public health and medicine, but also from policy, zoology, and environmental science. The jury’s still out on exactly how Ebola got to Guinea, but deforestation and animal migration are compelling candidates that may be key to preventing further geographic expansion of this deadly disease.



—Maia Majumder, MPH

Also see:

Why We Should Care About #Ebola2014

Good coverage from CBS - clarifies the epidemic is unprecedented because the cases are so spread out in Guinea and across its borders (not because of the numbers), and confirms the only way to stop Ebola is to find and isolate everyone who had contact with the virus. But quarantine efforts are hampered - people are suspicious, scared, civil war survivors - as soon as they hear "quarantine," they try to escape and get away. …Their fears are validated when people who do go into quarantine come out dead.

Ebola clinic in Guinea evacuated after attack
Angry mob claims Doctors Without Borders introduced deadly disease to country

Coverage from USA Today is almost pure BS, just damage control - says, "The World Health Organization… is not recommending any travel restrictions because they tend to be ineffective." [So quarantine is not effective after all?] Quotes the U.N.'s Hartl, "This outbreak isn't different from previous outbreaks." [Even though it's spread over hundreds and hundreds of miles, has several centers and maybe more than one epicenter. Sure.] Meanwhile, France is screening passengers who want to fly from Guinea to France, and countries around Guinea are closing their borders or restricting travel - they obviously don't think the WHO's advice is legit.

Ebola breaks out on a scale never seen before

…….Michel Van Herp, an epidemiologist for the aid group, Doctors Without Borders, said that they were facing an epidemic on an unprecedented scale -- not in numbers of victims, but because the cases are so spread out in Guinea and across its borders. The only way to stop Ebola is to find and isolate everyone who has come into contact with it.

The virus, which causes vomiting, diarrhea, bleeding and eventually organ failure, spreads through contact with body fluids. Doctors Without Borders is setting up quarantine clinics, but they're battling against a suspicious and scared public.

…….."You have a lot of people who have recovered from civil war and are living in war-ravaged areas with very poor infrastructures," said Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow for global health with the Council on Foreign Relations. "Well as soon as word goes out of quarantine, you have people start trying to escape and get away from the clutches of authorities."

.

This is horrific!

I wonder if this claim ...

Ebola clinic in Guinea evacuated after attack
Angry mob claims Doctors Without Borders introduced deadly disease to country

... is true?

Why would Doctors poison and infect us deliberately?

Or is there some alphabet soup agency medical warfare division behind this outbreak

reply to post by soficrow


I did state that earlier in your other thread, the one about the pigs and monkeys... if it can spread between species with no contact... quarantine is ineffective. I wonder why the medical centre was attacked? Seems more to it that what media is telling us.

Completely off the wall, but back to the early pages of this thread...best way to spread this because it is not airborne?

The first international porn video, put together by the biggest names in the industry, shot near New Guinea.

Some of the cast will get together with the locals and share their special something with the rest of the cast, and the rest of the cast will go back to their hometowns and go back to "work" and their regular social lives and begin a quick 'sharing of free love' aka death by ebola

Just a thought, I don't recommend any government agencies flood the banks of porn producers with the intent of coercing them to make a production near New Guinea

But when it happens, I said it first.
Just saying
X

DietJoke
This is horrific!

....Why would Doctors poison and infect us deliberately?

Or is there some alphabet soup agency medical warfare division behind this outbreak

Doctors Without Borders or Medicin Sans Frontiers (MSF) is an absolutely AMAZING agency - and MSF doctors are dedicated awesome people who quietly risk life and limb trying to save people in areas the WHO won't touch. Don't ever question their motives. [Yes, that's a threat.]

There are a number of possible explanations for the Guinea outbreaks - and bioterrorism is only one of them. Fact is though, diseases, outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics really DO happen naturally and this Ebola outbreak could be natural.

But - to review the suspect line-up for purposeful "release." Remove nation-states off the top because none of them would be stupid enough to release a deadly disease that has no cure or treatment and might spread to infect their own people. That leaves corporate colonizer-bioterrorists and ideological bioterrorists.

History shows that corporate colonizers routinely use plagues to "conquer" territory. Global corporate interests are still lined up to rape and pillage Africa, and they resent the "natives" interfering with their right to profit. Guinea for example, is resource rich with Billion$ in untapped assets. No doubt these global corporate interests would love to speed up the economic take-over process, remove the "obstacles," and probably would be stupid enough to loose an untreatable plague.

Corporate communications strategists are already floating the idea that aboriginal guerilla terrorists (ideological) have the ability to acquire contaminated samples and purposefully infect enemies without infecting themselves in the process. A laughably unlikely scenario, imho. A stupid joke. They do not have the expertise and Ebola scares them poopless.

BUT - it is both likely and plausible that corporate terrorists would spread Ebola to speed economic takeover(s) - they have the personnel, labs, expertise and motivation. So they release the "blame the aboriginal terrorists" cover story to hide corporate culpability.

Guinea (for starters) is resource rich - and "undeveloped."

Guinea is richly endowed with minerals, possessing an estimated quarter of the world's proven reserves of bauxite,[1] more than 1.8 billion metric tons (2.0 billion short tons) of high-grade iron ore, significant diamond and gold deposits, and undetermined quantities of uranium. Guinea also has considerable potential for growth in the agricultural and fishing sectors. Land, water, and climatic conditions provide opportunities for large-scale irrigated farming and agroindustry.

This paper deals with agricultural corporations but the analysis can be applied to corporations involved in mineral extraction too. Or maybe it's a team effort.

Agricultural Biowarfare and Bioterrorism

...Anti-agricultural biowarfare and bioterrorism differ significantly from the same activities directed against humans; for instance, there exist a variety of possibilities for economic gain for perpetrators, and the list of possible perpetrators includes corporations, which may have state-of-the-art technical expertise. Furthermore, attacks are substantially easier to do: the agents aren’t necessarily hazardous to humans; delivery systems are readily available and unsophisticated; maximum effect may only require a few cases; delivery from outside the target country is possible; and an effective attack can be constructed to appear natural. This constellation of characteristics makes biological attack on the agricultural sector of at least some countries a very real threat, perhaps more so than attack on the civilian population.

Agricultural corporations, including producers, processors, and shippers, could benefit immensely from the economic impacts, market share changes, and financial market effects of a successful biological attack. Many also employ expert plant pathologists or veterinarians and have large collections of pathogens. The combination of motivation, expertise, and materials within a single, closed organization is worrisome.

reply to post by Thurisaz

....I wonder why the medical centre was attacked? Seems more to it that what media is telling us.

Ebola is incurable and untreatable. The only way to stop Ebola is quarantine but quarantine efforts are hampered - people are suspicious, scared, civil war survivors - as soon as they hear "quarantine," they try to escape and get away. …Their fears are validated when people who do go into quarantine come out dead.

The only way to stop Ebola is to find and isolate everyone who has come into contact with it.

....Doctors Without Borders is setting up quarantine clinics, but they're battling against a suspicious and scared public.

…….."You have a lot of people who have recovered from civil war and are living in war-ravaged areas with very poor infrastructures," said Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow for global health with the Council on Foreign Relations. "Well as soon as word goes out of quarantine, you have people start trying to escape and get away from the clutches of authorities."

reply to post by Xcouncil=wisdom


Why do it? What's the motive? Who would do it? Who would it serve? How?

....At present Ebola is incurable and untreatable and there is no vaccine. Please do not trot out the standard "depopulation" agenda or "Big Pharma's in it for the money from vaccines" story.

IF the outbreak was purposefully engineered, the only explanation that makes any sense at all is corporate bioterrorism for colonization, and economic takeover of the region.



.

Thurisaz
reply to post by soficrow

 

...if it can spread between species with no contact... quarantine is ineffective.

You might be interested in this old thread.

Quarantine Until Death: The Pandemic Policy Now on Trial in the Court of Public Opinion

And this one:

Quarantine: A Standard Depopulation Strategy

Oh yeah, and this article reflecting common sentiment from 2006:

Why We Must Quarantine Africa Soon



......old issues resurface.

What I'm concerned about is the recent scientific articles about ebola and human dna sharing material.

If they come up with a vaccine, the result would be disasterous, for your own immune system would start attacking your body.

Im wondering if Ebola has been seen in west Africa before or may even have been quietly circulating for a while hence the multiple points of origin.

Thing is this area of Africa is notorious for another viral hemorrhagic disease called Lassa Fever. Unlike Ebola it firmly established in the human population and causes thousands of deaths a year.


It basically shares the same clinical symptoms are Ebola. Same presentation, same sort of incubation period, same sort of late stage hemorrhaging, same cause of death and similar routes of infection.

The differences are:
1) It spread in rats not bats (as is suspected with ebola)
2)Not everyone develops a serious infection so the overall morality is 1%
3) It mortality rate can be as high as 20% (Though can climb higher to 50%) in hospitalized patients who develop the more serious condition
4) Sometimes responds to the anti viral Ribavirin, but only in early stages.
5) Genetically different belonging to two different orders of Viruses.

Due to poor healthcare, over stretched resources and next to non existent laboratory tests in some areas points 4 and 5 can be scratched off and a lot are not brought int hospitals until the late stages.

So really if a Ebola patient had been brought into hospital they likely would have written it off as Lassa and wouldn't have batted a eye lid if the patient died. Would have been uneventful and not worth the investigation.

So it not unreasonable to think that the odd Ebola patient in the past could be slipping through undetected. Its not until wards would have been seeing 50%+ Mortality rates and complete unresponsiveness to Ribavirin they would have caught on to it being something different and ordered lab tests done. By this point Ebola could have established itself.

Bit more information on Lassa here
Lassa fact sheet

Thurisaz
reply to post by soficrow

 

I wonder why the medical centre was attacked? Seems more to it that what media is telling us.

We are talking about a part of the world where they still believe all sorts of things about what will and won't cure them of disease. It is not at all difficult to see how a place where sick people go in and do not come out could be viewed as hurting more than helping especially as there always seem to me more sick people.

Unity_99

If they come up with a vaccine, the result would be disasterous, for your own immune system would start attacking your body.

Thats what clinical trials are for......to stop disastrous things from happening

crazyewok

Unity_99

If they come up with a vaccine, the result would be disasterous, for your own immune system would start attacking your body.

Thats what clinical trials are for......to stop disastrous things from happening

Yes, but the problems start when they push something through without the usual round of clinical trials because there is a panic. This happened with the '70s Swine Flu scare and it happened again on a smaller scale recently. More people died or were injured from vaccines that were rushed into production because of a scare.

It's always difficult to balance the true risk v. the reward in those cases.

Will the averted risk of Ebola be worth the possible injuries that may result from a rushed vaccine, and if the public doesn't end up perceiving it to be worthwhile, you have a problem in your hands.

reply to post by ketsuko


Well if by some fluke Ebola broke out of Africa and started spreading like wildfire around the civilized world the a 90% mortality rate give one quite a big margin for error when it comes to side effects.

Anyway last time I checked they had already begin some clinical trials with a Ebola vaccine. So if SHTF there been at least some trials done and some information gathered.

reply to post by crazyewok


Yes, but it would have to actually spread like wildfire.

Right now, it causes enough panic to make people stampede for any vaccine offered just fine.

There is some evidence to suggest that the public fear of polio outweighed its actual danger (not its danger to you if you get it, but your overall chances of getting it). Thankfully, the vaccines were safe.

Is Ebola the same? Is it a disease that we fear out of proportion to its actual ability to ran rampant, not its actual ability to kill?

Guinea may be about to give us our first real test.

reply to post by ketsuko

Think of it this way......

If all the uneducated headless chickens get the vaccines pushed forward before its properly tested ,us more sane ones can step back and let them take it first, if they survive then I guess its safe for us. If the unwashed masses start dropping like fly's? Well guess we can avoid it eh ?

This is ....concerning.

Standard reports say Ebola is suspected in Liberia and Mali as well as being in Guinea. Some have reported suspected cases in Gambia and Senegal. Now, Ghana web reports a suspected case in Ghana. Meanwhile, travellers trying to fly out of the country from Guinea's capital now are being health-screened before being allowed to board their planes.

Ghana records first suspected case of ebola

XYZ News can report that blood sample from a 12-year-old girl has been sent to the Noguchi Memorial Institute for tests to confirm if Ghana has recorded its first case of ebola.

The 12-year-old girl was first admitted at the paediatric unit of the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Kumasi with symptoms of fever and bleeding.

Guinea: Airport passengers screened for Ebola

CONAKRY, Guinea (AP) — Health officials in Guinea say all passengers departing from the capital city’s airport must fill out a health form and have their temperature taken as part of an effort to combat the spread of the deadly Ebola hemorrhagic fever.

Dr. Sakoba Keita, director of prevention at the health ministry, said anyone with a temperature higher than 38 degrees Celsius (100.4 degrees Fahrenheit) would be tested for the disease, which has killed 86 people in the West African nation since an outbreak began in February.

reply to post by crazyewok

...if a Ebola patient had been brought into hospital they likely would have written it off as Lassa and wouldn't have batted a eye lid if the patient died. Would have been uneventful and not worth the investigation.

So it not unreasonable to think that the odd Ebola patient in the past could be slipping through undetected. Its not until wards would have been seeing 50%+ Mortality rates and complete unresponsiveness to Ribavirin they would have caught on to it being something different and ordered lab tests done. By this point Ebola could have established itself.

True, and all good points. S& But I suspect the natural reservoir is still more important - is it fruit bats? Did susceptible species migrate to the West coast of Africa? Why? When? ...If not fruit bats, what? Is this about habitat disruption and destruction, whatever species might be the natural reservoir?


Note above post: Ebola suspected in Ghana

reply to post by crazyewok


This is why we've been set up to self-quarantine ever since my husband started working in the industry. Sometimes, the cure can be worse than the disease, or at least the risk of catching the disease since there isn't much worse than Ebola.

As for how this is spreading ... is it that we're getting our first idea of how Ebola acts when not confined by poorly connected human communities or is there some other factor spreading it (a new pool of bats it hasn't been in before and a lot of people eating them)?