Malasyian Flight Hit By Meteorite?

smurfy
What radar do you refer to over the sea?

Oh look it's my friend from another country!! How have you been?

As to your question you are right..no radar over water and nothing would have tracked a meteor coming into our atmosphere and hitting a plane.

reply to post by opethPA


It is less than 400 nautical miles between Malaysia and Vietnam - the aircraft was at 35,000 feet, at which height the horizon is about 200 nautical miles away (in both directions - you can "see" 200 nm ahead, and 200 nm behind)- so it could easily have been covered by land based radar over the entire length of that sector.

The odds, put meteorites outside of the probable possibilities, I would think.

Death by Meteorite is an extreme long shot, and no one on this planet has been killed by one in recorded history.

The Odds of you being killed by a meteorite are lower than an aircraft crash and higher than a lightning strike, all things being equal.

A meteorite death AND a plane crash kind of put the odds way far out, as it tacks on a lot more zero's.

While rocks raining from space are scary and there is no way to completely eliminate their threat, they are also thankfully sporadic. Your odds of getting killed by a meteorite are roughly 1 in 250,000. You are far more likely to die in an earthquake, tornado, flood, airplane crash, or car crash (but less likely to be killed by lightning). Most asteroids burn up in the atmosphere long before they hit the ground and the few that do will probably hit open ocean or a remote part of the Earth rather than your head.

Source: Wired-Science

Aloysius the Gaul

doesn't look like it slowed down at all - the speeds are all 471-474 knots.

And 15 degrees is not a big course change. Airliners routinely do 180 degrees in a minute - that is a "rate 1 turn" - at high speed they would do a rate 2 turn - 90 degrees in 1 minute.

The recorded headings are 25 degrees at 17:19:28, 28 degrees at 17:20:18 and 40 degrees at 17:20:35 - from 20 to 35 degrees is a 15 degree shift in 1 minute and 7 seconds - it would barely be noticeable.

Yes, the turn are barely noticeable, but in comparison to its target, 15 degrees turn is way way off, thats what I meant to say.
Another thing, the need to turn at all is very questionable. If the flight want to achieve better heading or anything, the aeroplane would bank on the left side, not the other way.

In my opinion, the pilot clearly want to avoid a collision in the last 2 minute and probably stalled and fell.

Anyone can bring up theory, truth can only be known when we found the black box.

reply to post by NullVoid


I don't see how you can know what the pilot "clearly" wanted - and saying you do know is pretty silly IMO.

who knows how long he intended to keep the new course - if it took him further from his destination then maybe it was only for few minutes so that would not be of any great concern.

There are a large number of possible reasons for a course change - IMO chief among them would be an optical illusion flying over a dark sea with many fishing boats on it looking like stars and becoming a little disoriented.

There is a massive thread on the missing aircraft on the Professional Pilots Rumour Network that you should probably read for more realistic possibilities.

reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul


Silly or not that your choice, who cares.
I'm just reiterating what the flight log is showing.

Fact:
Changing course by 15 degrees to right side at 470+ speed, will bring you way way off course.
If you can maintain 25degrees, why need to change at all ? If theres a need, course change would be perform gradually over time, an speed probably slowed down so it will not encounter the obstacle fast.

So, in conclusion - either the plane intend to make a u turn or avoiding something, its so obvious.

In short: I'm saying "the pilot wanted to turn a bit to avoid something or make a full u turn"

I'm reiterating what the flight log is showing, its obvious he want to avoid something, whatever it is - I dont care. For all we know, he might want to avoid clouds but he DID turn. Probably attempt to make a U turn, nothing else and thats it.

and still someone want to debunk.
Read the log, its not that hard to tell hes avoiding something. What he want to avoid ?- big bunny in the sky.
Hope you satisfied.

Danbones
reply to post by NullVoid

 

that is a quik deek for a big plane..whats the typical turn rate i wonder

A "standard rate" turn in any airliner is 3 degrees per second. Some autopilots give you the option of going half-standard to keep the bank rate down. The question I have is about the heading. The course from KUL to PEK (Kuala Lamur to Bejing) is 18 degrees. 7 degrees is a pretty big crosswind correction at 470 knots.

NullVoid
...Changing course by 15 degrees to right side at 470+ speed, will bring you way way off course.
If you can maintain 25degrees, why need to change at all ? If theres a need, course change would be perform gradually over time, an speed probably slowed down so it will not encounter the obstacle fast.

Maybe he was changing course temporarily to avoid a pocket of turbulent air.

They have weather radars that can tell them when they are approaching spots that may create heavy turbulence, and they will sometimes try to avoid them.

reply to post by NullVoid


You're not a Pilot are you!?!

It is actually rather typical for aircraft to make small course changes like that. And, at time, it IS to avoid something...sometime it is something on the ground; like Military installations, and other areas that have restricted airspace.

Sometimes Pilots will make small turns to avoid weather. But! and this ay be important, it is highly unlikely that a "U turn" was intended. Firstly, they were "too far" into the flight to return, second, the plane would not even attempt a "U turn" without first communicating with someone. Third, IF there was an issue that required that the plane land quickly, they would have looked for and probably found a close airport that could receive the aircraft.

It is unfortunate, but, it would appear that this is probably another "Terror" related event.

reply to post by tanka418



Dude, that is almost exactly what I'm saying.... its not something that you can debate, its a retelling and reiterating the event, and come somebody hot headed bashing me. Go figure.
Its not his/her fault, maybe he got it carried from the other thread or maybe he cant interpret good enough or the way I present it wrong.

Anyway, I'm not interested about the plane crash news at all, in fact I'm avoiding it.

"Look, the pilot turning, he want to avoid som"......(got beaten down). and I'm not even implying anything (but you are!). I think I worded it wrongly in that post. .
Cool down people! The end of the world is tomorrow, so play nice !

reply to post by Soylent Green Is People
Yeah that probably it. Whatever it is, I dont really care. At 3km sea depth, its gonna be hard to find it. I think military submarines would be helpful in these situation. As an exercise for them.

reply to post by NullVoid


Dude; you seem to be saying that this insignificant course change has some "important" significance; and I'm saying that is was more probably routine.

Since there was no "mayday", or other communication; it would seem probable that what ever happened, happened rather suddenly.

Although, the notion that the plane "disintegrated" in flight, is a bit hard to accept considering the plane's safety record.

it's not impossible that a meteorite could hit a plane in flight. probably highly unlikely though. however there would be debris. so far there is none.

reply to post by FreedomKnight


I didn't say I believed anything.

I just said it has never happened before, that we know of.

Soon we'll have to create a term akin to 'Godwins Law' except that it describes how sooner or later somebody will bring 9/11 into a discussion, any discussion. I often wonder what ATS would be like if people didn't happen to have the WTC attacks to constantly fall back on when their feeble intellects and stunted imaginations grind to a halt, it would probably be a lot quieter around here, but there would surely be more substance actually worth absorbing....wouldn't you agree?

There once was a 'Twilight Zone'' episode where the aircraft got carried away in a Jet-Stream current which 'threw' the aircraft into a TIME vortex

the passengers saw =Dinosaurs= as they flew over NYC... so the Captain took-a-chance... reversed course... and reentered the TIME Vortex... yo return to their own time frame/present



this plane might also be caught in a time-space vortex and is not crashed as Yet

but may become crashed upon their return..... forensics needs to keep the 'time' element their main focus
because the craft may -be missing for a Day--- but the crash happened only hours ago

reply to post by St Udio


Since you brought up Twilight Zone...

The families of the Malaysian flight make a call, the phone ring but unanswered.
Not just this guy, but few others too. Creepy eh ?

If the plane hit the water in such a way could it in theory sink without coming apart?

I'm glad I finally ran across this idea being presented. It was what I first thought when I read the story but I waited to see what played out and now I'm even more certain. Personally, I have seen 5 meteoroids in the past 2 weeks. 3 dim and 2 very bright fireballs (one of which was reported with the same time and description details by someone in a town about 90 miles away) The odd thing? I live within a mile and a half of the downtown of a metropolitan city with 1 mil+ population and have never seen a shooting star unless I venture 30 minutes into the country. I'm not an astronomer by any means but I'm an avid stargazer and there's definitely something very strange going on in the skies.

With that being said, I checked into it yesterday and there was a fireball reported in japan at 1:14 am their time, 7 minutes before the plane took off I believe. Link is here (sonotaco.jp...) There's video of another one the next night in Korea. Keep in mind that Fireballs happen so fast that they all can't be caught by radar, eye, or camera. It is possible it tore apart the plane without the plane exploding, and it is possible it carried pieces with it (depending on the size of course) as it continued, especially considering the altitude and speed the meteor would've been traveling at. It can account for a few things but there are holes. As far as I'm concerned, though, a terrorist hijacking is not any more plausible than this. Do a little research, watch the patterns, maintain an open heart, and keep your eyes on the sky.

My guesstimate: its strewn about in the Bengal bay

jmychal
The odd thing? I live within a mile and a half of the downtown of a metropolitan city with 1 mil+ population and have never seen a shooting star unless I venture 30 minutes into the country. I'm not an astronomer by any means but I'm an avid stargazer and there's definitely something very strange going on in the skies.

Light pollution in and around populated areas make it very difficult to see what's going on in the night skies. I have lived in an urban area for over half my life and have never seen a meteor here, however when I visit my folks place, which I do every week, it is in the country where there's no street lights and the nearest town is 15 miles away, on clear nights I nearly always see meteors.

I posted this on the original thread which is now over 100 pages long. Link to post is below but I could not embed the links format or cloud content. See original post below for links.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I was thinking this as well there sure have been a slew of them lately. Here is some info I have been putting together

Flight MH370 which departed Kuala Lumpur at 12.41 am earlier this morning(March 8, 2014) bound for Beijing.
This neo made its closest pass to earth as below

2014 EB4 2014-Mar-07 17:19 < 00:01 Earth 0.0214888558079387
Now if we covert UTC to MYT:

Friday, March 7, 2014 at 5:20:00 PM UTC
Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)
equals:
Saturday, March 8, 2014 at 1:20:00 AM MYT
UTC+8 hours

Now what if this object had others with it and was not necessarily the one 2014 EB4 (we were blindsided with the Russian meteor)? The time fits with the flight disappearance. Where would the flight have been 39 minutes into its flight? Did they say contact was lost one to two hours into the flight? Is this where the flight was seen to change direction? Did the flight take evasive maneuvers to avoid collision such as a 60% bank and stall? I know others have suggested this possibility as well.

Link

Cases have been reported where airline pilots have veered their planes off course to avoid a mid-air collision with a fireball, only to find, from research later, that the fireball was 80 to 150 kilometres away and perhaps 30 kilometres higher than the aircraft. A typical fireball first appears at a height of about 130 kilometres above Earth, and usually extinguishes at a height of about 20 kilometres.


Link

It last had contact with air traffic controllers 120 nautical miles off the east coast of the Malaysian town of Kota Bharu. Flight tracking website flightaware.com showed it flew northeast after takeoff, climbed to 35,000 ft and was still climbing when it vanished from tracking records.
There were no reports of bad weather.
"What we have done is actually look into the recording on the radar that we have and we realized there is a possibility the aircraft did make a turnback," Rodzali Daud, the Royal Malaysian Air Force chief, told reporters at a news conference.

Link

Here goes: at any given time, airliners cover 2 billionths of the Earth's surface. There are 125 meteors an hour, each with probability 2x10-9 of striking some airplane. In 20 years, that's about 22 million independent possible impact events. The chance that every one of those meteors misses every airplane is:
> ppois(0,2e-9*22e6)
[1] 0.956954
In other words, there's about a 4.3% chance of a meteor strike on at least one airliner in the next 20 years. (John Conway used a different calculation but came to a similar result.) That's surprisingly large. To repeat: this is almost certainly an over-estimate, and applies not to a single flight but cumulatively to all flights over a 20-year period. Furthermore, there have been no documented cases of a meteor striking an aircraft so far, so even if it did occur we have no idea what kind of damage it would cause, or even if it would lead to a crash. But it's significant enough that it can't be ruled out next time there's an unexplained air crash incident.

Link

A few things I would like to point out. Often times a meteor sighting or to be more precise a bolide sighting is sometimes precluded by unusually intense rain and or hail. This is caused in part by the ice melting off the meteor and coming down as precipitation. This could have been a massive storm caused caused by multiple objects. I believe that the flash of light seen by the pilots on the Air Comet flight (how ironic is it that the name of the airline is Air Comet?) could have been another meteor descending in the area and not necessarily the one that brought Air France down. The other thing that everyone seems to have overlooked when calculating the odds is the fact that the bolide does not have to actually strike the airplane in order to bring it down, it just has to get close enough so that the electromagnetic disturbance caused by it will affect its’ electronic instruments. It seems that the Aerbus is more susceptible to this than older planes. I am looking into reports of meteor sightings coinciding with the same model plane loosing several hundred feet of altitude over Australia in October of 2008. Coincidentally the first ever asteroid tracked from space that had pieces of it recovered on the ground occurred on the same week. Qantas Flight 72 had problems two months later over Australia and that coincided with an uptick in meteoric activity as well. That’s my two cents.

Below is from a blog in the area and has some info that may or may not be correct, just putting it out for discussion.
Link

MH370 missing updates. plane crashed at vietnam, all ppl in the plane died. CNN reported. plane was confirmed crashed at 100km north of Ho Chi Minh city
due to rain storms at ho chi minh. the local ppl thought was meteor crashing. due to locally still raining and hill place, rescue activities facing problem now

and from page 4 of the above link

i read around from the sources inside the country found out that workers from talisman malaysian united oil and gas company stated that the crash happened near their oil plantation on malaysia-vietnam sea border
they joined the rescue team but they said they can't do nothing because the plane was crushed into pieces before plunging deep into the sea. they described it as '______' it's likely the plane exploded on air or there's complete power failure before the fall into the sea. that's why the plane went off radar all of sudden

Wait, so its like it was crushed even before it entered the sea? ...

u know what i'm working with petronas (malaysian oil and gas company). this morning i talked with my superior about this and she said,her friend who's working offshore with talisman (on malaysia-vietnam border) saw the plane crashed. tried to help, but...
and i know this is so hard to believe, but man i don't think she will lie to me though


and another from page 4

Posted 08 March 2014 - 01:33 AM
Apparently the Plane crashed 40 minutes into the flight, so the fact that they reported this news so late is pretty sad...

hmmm 40 minutes into the flight, I asked above with relation to NEO 2014 EB4 where they were approx 39 min into the flight? I know the NEO was not that close to the earth, but the timing sure fits, were there others?

So here is a screen print from G7IZU Radio Reflection for Oceania



This is from today. It would be interesting to see if they have any saved images for the time of the flight.