Russia declares war on Ukraine. Live updates from inside Ukraine

reply to post by stirling

right now I believe there will be armed resistance to any Russian move that usurps the power of the Kiev government,

Hate to say it but the Kiev government already just got usurped and it wasn't by the Russians.

Like him or not Ukraine's legitimate elected leader just got chased out of the country and their government has been taken over by the "opposition." Now the different factions in control are beginning to fight one another.

This is a multinational, bankster inspired con job and the ones who are going to pay don't even seem to see that... yet.

ikonoklast
reply to post by Oksus

 

To continue the chess analogy, what it reminds me of is the situation where someone has your queen and your rook forked with their knight so that you can only save one or the other.

1. If the Budapest Memorandum is interpreted to mean that the US and Britain must defend the Ukraine against a Russian military incursion, it potentially leads directly to WWIII.

2. If the US and Britain say the Budapest Memorandum doesn't require defending the Ukraine and they do essentially nothing, then other countries have no reason to believe that they can rely on the US or Britain to fulfill mutual defense treaties and likely NATO's role in the world will be marginalized as well.

My guess is the second possibility is most likely and is likely what Putin expects as well. But I'm pretty sure Putin must have considered the other possibility as well.

Well China is involved in this as well they signed a nuclear defense pact with Ukraine i know Putin knows this so im waiting for China to weigh in on this as well. China is obliged under this to help protect Ukraine from aggression by nuclear powers. Believe it or not Ukraine is very important to the chinese. China and Ukraine have a long history of strategic partnerships. Ukraine's military industrial enterprises, which inherited the former Soviet Union's estate, have cooperated with China. The Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier commissioned into the People's Liberation Army Navy, was originally laid down as the Admiral Kuznetsov class multirole aircraft carrier Riga for the Soviet Navy built in Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine's military industrial enterprises have also played a key role in the engine production and maintenance of China's military jets, transport aircrafts and helicopters.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Wouldn't that be great?
Too bad the system wants bodies to throw at this. And since it's the UN e ALL will get to play. We are even going to get our little girls killed in this one too. Notice the recent push to combat roles?
Soon a great MANY will feel as I do then...maybe Heinlen was right.

reply to post by dragonridr


The treaty was made with the president who has been deposed, if Bejing sees this as a coup, they may feel it in there interests to stick with the guy they know.

Ukraine military will defect by at least 60% if ordered to fight Russia forces, Russia knows this

So after so many pages, should I start stocking up canned food or not?

Or is it yet another "We're doomed WWIII is here!!! oh wait, no it's not.." thing?

I am lazy.

reply to post by sn0rch


That's the thing........ No one knows. This is not sabre rattling, this is something that could really explode into something big, and to be honest this confrontation (so to speak) has been 60 years in the making, but this time Russia has the upper hand, could go either way if you ask me.

sn0rch
So after so many pages, should I start stocking up canned food or not?

Or is it yet another "We're doomed WWIII is here!!! oh wait, no it's not.." thing?

I am lazy.

Really, it's far too early to say. I personally doubt it will go that far, but there is the potential for things to get ugly very quickly. NATO is meeting tomorrow and a lot of what happens in the coming days will depend on what they decide to do.

dragonridr
Well China is involved in this as well they signed a nuclear defense pact with Ukraine i know Putin knows this so im waiting for China to weigh in on this as well. China is obliged under this to help protect Ukraine from aggression by nuclear powers. Believe it or not Ukraine is very important to the chinese. China and Ukraine have a long history of strategic partnerships. Ukraine's military industrial enterprises, which inherited the former Soviet Union's estate, have cooperated with China. The Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier commissioned into the People's Liberation Army Navy, was originally laid down as the Admiral Kuznetsov class multirole aircraft carrier Riga for the Soviet Navy built in Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine's military industrial enterprises have also played a key role in the engine production and maintenance of China's military jets, transport aircrafts and helicopters.

Hmmm dragonridr, That is an interesting fact that I was not aware of. I wonder if Russia and China could be working together behind the scenes, with the end goal being Red Chinese Naval bases being planted in the region, all in the name of Ukraine National Security? It's certainly something to consider, and it actually makes a lot of sense from their viewpoint.

I appreciate the information concerning the Ukraine / China connection my friend. ~$heopleNation

dragonridr

ikonoklast
reply to post by Oksus

 

Well China is involved in this as well they signed a nuclear defense pact with Ukraine i know Putin knows this so im waiting for China to weigh in on this as well. China is obliged under this to help protect Ukraine from aggression by nuclear powers.

I didn't know about the pact between the Ukraine and China, thanks!

So it's not just chess, it's 3-dimensional chess. Simultaneously Putin forks China's queen and rook as well as the USA & Britain's queen and rook, with essentially the same choices for China as the US and Britain have: either potentially start WWIII or demonstrate to every country they have a defense pact with that they won't necessarily defend them.

I can't tell who the good guys and the bad guys are in all of this - seems like many shades of gray with differing agendas. But Putin seems to be more or less winning. And Asen is doing a great job of reporting.

Wrabbit2000
reply to post by tsurfer2000h

 

Looks as though Russia has decided to overlook some of these and do as they please.

Not unlike what made a little island in the Caribbean important to have in a history book. Recall the reasons for the US invasion of Grenada? That wasn't even a US Naval base at stake. Sevastopol is a key strategic Russian naval port and facility they could first be called paranoid or using excuses to react to threat with. Then, Kiev outright said they'd rethink the existing treaty and perhaps evict them.

No your wrong. Many Americans were held hostage on that island by the invading Cuban forces. Ukraine did not hold anyone hostage or want to change the existing deal they had with Russia. Ukraine just wanted to trade with the EU and get more benefits.

This is the SECOND time Putin has used the Olympics as cover for an build up and invasion. He is a dictator and Obama is a wussy, never mind a Muslim plant hell bent on weakening the U.S.. Reagan would have stopped this without one bullet being fired. Till someone stands up to Putin militarily then he will keep up his antics.

Send a few U.S. navy battle groups headed that way with NATO demanding Russia leave Crimea to pre uprising levels and any part of Ukraine and you will see how fast Putin backs off. He knows he can not defeat NATO or the U.S. toe to toe without Nukes and he is not that crazy or stupid.

Putin should still be accountable for his recent actions and Georgia


Anyone remeber this

Guys, I just got news from a news site from portugal.

Source: Link

The reportersaid they wen't to Balaclava where there is a coast guard base, where they saw four ucranian navy ships going full speed.

He also said that 300 russian paratroopers are taking possession of the base, there are 8 trucks full of army men, 5 Tigers (machine gun wielding vehicles).

When he aproached a comunity representative, he asked for an reporters Id.
When the reporter confronted him of why he is being asked for is id for the first time since he is in Ukraine,
the representative said that they where at war.

Looks like the SHTF.

Sorry for my source being in Portuguese

reply to post by Neph89


Have you any more relevant sources?

Thanks for the link.

This is the world we live in...

If you read between the lines the political situation is shaping up. The US wants to allow for room to negotiate and i think this is what Russia wants. See i was thinking about it the threat to Russian security is the new government would evict them from their naval base. This is unacceptable to the Russians for so many reasons biggest of which is it makes their navy useless. Id say Putins goal in this is to get guarantees the base stays. I say this because of a comment

The Russian forces appeared to be establishing "legitimate" defensive positions around some of Moscow's military bases in a "self-defense posture only," U.S. officials told NBC News on Saturday.

See this tels me the whitehouse was told Russia will keep this base at any cost. So the US spin is well there defending their base. But even Moscow is trying to prevent this from escalating

But just because Putin was granted new powers to use military force doesn't mean he will do so any time soon, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said.In what might have been an attempt to put a velvet glove on an iron fist, Karasin said Putin's power may not be activated quickly.

So i see this playing out in one of two ways either the new Ukrainian government concedes to continued presence of Russians in there country or they go to armed conflict to remove them. Im not sure which way this one will go but its a powder keg thats for sure world war 2 was started over an assassination so things can easily spiral out of control.

This will end in another wall like Berlin I'm guessing. It can't go conventional, we own that,Putin isn't an ignorant man and nobody is stupid enough to go nuclear(I hope) but it does fit a pattern of the US when it is facing a severe finantial dilemma.

As to the Russian pattern ,I do recall reading about how key transportation facilities were taken softly then the armor rolled in.
I doubt this is Tit for tat on Syria. It may also mean a base like ours in Cuba for their Navy ports.
I also read on the thread how someone said 1st Cav went on alert,they do that for UAs you know.

The US should head into Syria and Iran now... Obama should respond back with "if you don't want to listen to me, then I won't listen to you"..... The US and NATO need to do something.. They both backed down when Russia stood up for Syria and now when the US and NATO stands up for Ukraine Putin doesn't back down... Time to step up and put Russia in their place... I understand that many hate the US, but to be fair, Russia isn't much better and they are quite shady too in SO many respects...

reply to post by DeadSeraph


Interesting read, thanks for posting. So, this is really becoming an international mess from what I've read thus far. You've got Germany, China, USA, and Britain all sticking their noses into a fight between Russia and Ukraine.

Let's see if I can get this all straight...

The US and Britain might have to defend Ukraine due to them signing a Budapest Memorandum.

China signed a Nuclear Defense Pact with Ukraine (China and Russia were never really on speaking terms to begin with)

Germany is behind boxing champ Klitschko

Now we find out an IDF soldier has been working in Kiev since the beginning of the revolution

Man, this would be a helluva political thriller, to bad Tom Clancy's no longer around!

reply to post by Feltrick


So China is Pro-Ukraine, due to a nuclear defense pact agreement? Man, there are too many angles to follow here, I really don't even know what to make of all of this