TA-ANALYSIS: Iran Wants Nukes by January

The Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is urging his scientists to develop at least 2 nuclear bombs by January, stating that if they do not acheive this goal, "you are not Muslims." The recent IAEA resolution may have prompted Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.



Iran may well be planning pull out of the NNPT by January, spurring Khamenei to try and step up the development of nuclear weapons. With their recent successful development and testing of a Shihab-3 missile on Sept. 18, this could be the last step to a nuclear Iran.

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[edit on 2-10-2004 by Banshee]

Hmmm, and what else goes with January... Oh yeah, the free and fair elections in Iraq so we can bail out of that country and focus on Iran before the entire Middle East is destabilized.

The only news site I can find this on is WorldNetdaily and I don't trust them.

When it's on Reuters, AP or pretty much anywhere else, I'll be a little more willing to believe it.

The story I linked to is from WND. It is one that they have been allowed to reprint from GeoStrategy-Direct.com.

Editor's note: WorldNetDaily brings readers exclusive, up-to-the-minute global intelligence news and analysis from Geostrategy-Direct, a new online newsletter edited by veteran journalist Robert Morton and featuring the "Backgrounder" column compiled by Bill Gertz. Geostrategy-Direct is a subscription-based service produced by the publishers of WorldTribune.com, a free news service frequently linked by the editors of WorldNetDaily.

Many times I have found a story on WND months before it's on AP or Reuters. Sometimes the story never appears on the major news wires. You just never know, but it's better to have a heads-up, then have a story creep up on you.

they want nukes? weve got a few lying around not doing much, lets give em to em!

'you are not muslims'
i wonder if any of them consider that maybe, just maybe, allah does not require the building of two nukes in 3 months in order to be a muslim. although, really, i could be wrong. i was wrong when i said jews werent the devil!

Originally posted by Amorymeltzer
they want nukes? weve got a few lying around not doing much, lets give em to em!

'you are not muslims'
i wonder if any of them consider that maybe, just maybe, allah does not require the building of two nukes in 3 months in order to be a muslim. although, really, i could be wrong. i was wrong when i said jews werent the devil!

You had me laughing... until you said that last thing. Not cool.

Originally posted by phreak_of_nature
You had me laughing... until you said that last thing. Not cool.

sorry? it was a joke, aimed at the illogical hatred felt by the extremists (and most of the world - also a joke) towards jews. for the record, im jewish, i wudnt dream of insulting myself seriously, im to egotistical sorry if it offended you, though.

Originally posted by Amorymeltzer
sorry? it was a joke, aimed at the illogical hatred felt by the extremists (and most of the world - also a joke) towards jews. for the record, im jewish, i wudnt dream of insulting myself seriously, im to egotistical sorry if it offended you, though.

Eh, maybe I'm just a little oversensitive some times. No offense taken.

I started another thread the other day and someone started throwing around racial slurs. I have a real big problem with bigotry in all it's forms. I just didn't want to see this thread go that way too.

no problem. its too easy for people to just throw things around, i often forget that people here do not know me like my friends do, i simply thogut i was clear enough.

anyway, i dont like the idea of iran with nukes (duh). i dont think iraq, elections or not, will be completely free of america by then, and with north korea in possession of nukes of their own, i dont like the way our post-iraq world is headed. not at all. this good get bloody fast, i dont trust them. or us, really. but mainly them

These guys are just begging for a little smack down. Are they thinking that they might prevent an invasion by using that same tactics as N. Korea? The New World Order is looking more and more attractive every day lol. Maybe that's the point of all of this. C'mon, this IS a conspiracy site isn't it?

Originally posted by phreak_of_nature
The Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is urging his scientists to develop at least 2 nuclear bombs by January, stating that if they do not acheive this goal, "you are not Muslims."

This way they just convince Bush to attack this country, especially that Iran has a lot of oil sources in the southwest

Originally posted by AtheiX

Originally posted by phreak_of_nature
The Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is urging his scientists to develop at least 2 nuclear bombs by January, stating that if they do not acheive this goal, "you are not Muslims."

This way they just convince Bush to attack this country, especially that Iran has a lot of oil sources in the southwest

I guess also that the Iranians are convinced the US will atttack sometime soon.

They could be thinking that the only way to stop an invasion is by having nukes as a deterrant.

No nuclear state has ever directly attacked another nuclear state. The closest you've had is situation in Kashmir.

If Bush is re-elected, then I imagine that he won't wait for Iran to gain nuclear capability. We wouldn't need ground forces to reduce their nuke and missle facilities to ash. Maybe Israel can't accomplish such a thing, but we can.
Even if Iran did gain nuclear capability before we could move in... there's a first time for everything. If they managed to launch one or both planned nukes we'd probably destroy them before they could even leave the vicinity of the launch site. Iran will be sorely mistaken if they think that possessing nuclear capability will deter us from taking them out. If anything, it'll give whatever administration is in office an even better excuse to go into Iran.
Sometimes I wonder exactly what the ol' Ayatollah is smokin'. He must have gotten into lil' Kim's stash.

I posted this in the Kerry/Iran thread, but I think it's relevant here:
-------------------------------------
Iran has determined that the only way to achieve "safety" and guarantee future soverienty is to proceed with research and armament. Whether right or wrong ( that's another issue), this is the course of action the mullahs have decided on.

In my opinion, the ruling parties of Iran feel they have a good chance to make the move and press on now. The U.S. is in the most difficult position militarily and polically it has seen in a while. We are stretched a bit, and at home our public opinion and support isn't the best it could be. We've lost a bit of support in the world at large etc etc. It's the best time Iran has seen in our lifetimes to make a move like this. That's just how I think they see it. Iran doesn't think we could invade if we really needed to, nor have the support at home or internationally. Any moves by the Israeli government would open another huge can of worms as well.

Any other governments would be even less likely to push against Iran in a military manner. Britain won't proceed militarily without the U.S in my opinion. Blair is having troubles on the homefront too... Sanctions or other things of course would occur. But in the end Iran gets what it wants. Then people would be forced to deal with a new completely different paradigm. This is the strategy that N. Korea has successfully used. It stands a good chance of working for Iran IMHO.
---------------------------------------------------

I disagree about strikes on Iranian facilities using cruise missiles or aircraft alone however. I'm sure if we decided on military action, these would be used. However, Iran isn't foolish when it comes to protecting it's "crown jewel program". Air defenses in Iran are much better than what we saw in Iraq, and without looking at a map I assume that any research facilities are not on any unsafe border. I also imagine facilities are disbursed all over, with some key installations underground. There may be some areas that we are unaware of even. ( possibility at least)

When your dealing with nuclear issues, you have to be sure. You can't truly be sure without boots on the ground. A strike like this is an act of war. That's a huge can of worms. You sure don't want a fresh war and have the uncertainty of a nuclear program still in the works.

Iran won't stand by and allow a hit like this without a response. Terror attacks are of course a certainty. But they may also anticipate invasion following any strike, even if we didn't plan one. We would certainly mass some troops on the border from Iraq as a precaution. They could mis-interpret that ...especially after a strike. Either way, they could push into Iraq if they so chose. They would want to hit back at us, and have no love for alot of the Iraqi people anyway. Iran and Iraq aren't the best of buddies after 8+ years of war. ( That's just the "declared" war)

The other Arab nations would have some issues with the whole thing as well. Another help for Iran and a HUGE hindrance for anyone else. If Israel was involved, it would make matters exponentially worse. ( They would assume involvement anyway, but over involvement would be worse)
If the U.S entered Iran, for whatever reason, it's gonna look bad to them. Iraq, Afghanistan, talk of Syria, and adding Iran...That's alot for some of the Arab/Muslim community to swallow, regardless of individual circumstances. Add that in with fanatic talk of a global assault on the Muslim way of life and some more people may change opinions on a few things.

That's my shortened take of the issue...Basically, it's a bad situation. We don't have any good options at all.

Just a thought...
Maybe the January timeframe that they are looking at relates to the Inaguration. They might feel that the US won't undertake any military action to prevent them from acheiving their nuclear goal before the election. No matter who wins, the Iranians are an issue that the President will have to deal with. If they are a nuclear armed Iran come January, that makes any negotiation a whole different ballgame.

Couldn't have said it any better Phreak.

Here comes 10-20-or 30 meggatons down your throat! Say AAAH!

Originally posted by winker
Here comes 10-20-or 30 meggatons down your throat! Say AAAH!

It would be funny if someone said that to Bush and then actually carried it out.

Originally posted by phreak_of_nature
...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is urging his scientists to develop at least 2 nuclear bombs by January, stating that if they do not acheive this goal, "you are not Muslims."

How funny.

"If you scientists don't build to warheads by the first of the year, then the Infidels have won! By the way, know that by being scientists, you are in contempt of Islamic law and are infidels yourself, and if you weren't building me 2 warheads, you would have already been killed for your infidelity by now!"

This is like a sign I put up in the bathroom at work. "If you do not replace the toilet paper roll, then the terrorists have won." That didn't work either.