I'm so confused! I havent ever beleived in any of this, but that show was very convincing..Anyone else listen to it?
It's very easy to get caught in the allure of these stories. They're interesting, sometimes well-crafted, and (most of all) I think that many of us
want to believe that they're true.
This case is particularly compelling because, even if it is a hoax, it is well-planned in that it pulls together elements from other stories quite
well and makes it all fit together like a nice puzzle. For example, the detail about the SOM-1.01 being an annex to the "Red Book" makes you
believe that this "Red Book" exists and may actually be in Anon's possession, given that various Ufologists believe that the SOM is authentic.
Further, from an "is this possible" perspective, I offer you this brief analysis which (at least to me) suggests that disclosure may actually be
possible. Not likely, but possible...
Here we go.
A theory suggesting why the Project Serpo Disclosure may be genuine
A little known fact is that in October 2000, it was five-years from the effective date of
Executive Order 12958 (begins on page 19 of the linked filed) --
signed by Bill Clinton and mandating the automatic declassification of all government documents over 25 years old
unless the agency which
classified the document asserts that certain documents are exempt from disclosure.
President Clinton signed EO 12958 on April 17, 1995. The effective date of the Order was set to be 180 days from the date which he issued the order.
That means that certain documents were declassified, by Presidential proclamation, early in October, 2000. Thereafter, many documents because
declassified by proclamation on the 25th anniversary of their classification.
Of course, during that 180 days between the signing of the order and its' effective date, each agency head was supposed to inform the president's
office of any exempted file "series". This is done through the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. Interestingly, it was
Eisenhower (who was President at the time much of Project Serpo is alleged to have occured) that created this position.
Stephen J. Hadley now serves in that capacity for President Bush, taking over for Condoleeza
Rice earlier this year.
The staff of the National Security Council is de jure an element of the Executive Office of the President, but de facto is a central element of the
White House staff itself. President Eisenhower created a new position to head that staff: the assistant to the President for national security
affairs; every President since has continued that office and strengthened the staff. The twenty senior-most NSC officers have presidential titles and
rank; the total staff now numbers nearly two hundred, many of them detailees from State, Defense, and CIA.
American Presidency.org
Ok, so what you ask? I'm glad you asked!
So... just this year, the Project Serpo documents, if true as alleged, turned 25 years old and became the subject of automatic declassification. In
other words, unless the Head of the DIA (the presumed holder of these documents) has identified the Project Serpo files (assuming they exist) as being
exempt from declassification, then they have already been automatically declassified.
In other words,
Lowell E. Jacoby, the Director of the DIA, had to identify the files
that were exempted from automatic declassification and then make a statement to the National Security Council explaining that the exempted material
fell under an exemption to EO 12958 pursuant to section. 3.4. Information that meets the following conditions may be exempted from declassification,
unless the President orders otherwise (the president can order that the material be declassified):
(1) reveal the identity of a confidential human source, or reveal information about the application of an intelligence source or method, or reveal the
identity of a human intelligence source when the unauthorized disclosure of that source would clearly and demonstrably damage the national security
interests of the United States;
(2) reveal information that would assist in the development or use of weapons of mass destruction;
(3) reveal information that would impair U.S. cryptologic systems or activities;
(4) reveal information that would impair the application of state of the art technology within a U.S. weapon system;
(5) reveal actual U.S. military war plans that remain in effect;
(6) reveal information that would seriously and demonstrably impair relations between the United States and a foreign government, or seriously and
demonstrably undermine ongoing diplomatic activities of the United States;
(7) reveal information that would clearly and demonstrably impair the current ability of United States Government officials to protect the President,
Vice President, and other officials for whom protection services, in the interest of national security, are authorized;
(8) reveal information that would seriously and demonstrably impair current national security emergency preparedness plans; or
(9) violate a statute, treaty, or international agreement.
Now, here's where we get to the very interesting part. First, lets assume that the DIA exempted all of their UFO/EBE/ET related information from
declassification. Most likely, Condoleeza Rice, the predecessor to Stephen Hadley as the head of the NSC, would have signed-off on this, most likely
without ever knowing what she signed off on. Then again, maybe not. "Rice was plucked from academia in 1989 by Brent Scowcroft to serve on the
National Security Council of former President Bush" --
CNN More
on why this is relevant later.
Stephen Hadley, however, is also an interesting character. First of all, he's a career intelligence officer going back to the Ford Administration (I
included a link to his bio so you would read it, so you should have known this already
). Also, Hadley worked for Scowcroft's firm in D.C. for a
few years and
Scowcroft was the National Security Advisor to President Ford and seems
to have had a hand in selecting members of the NSC for later Presidents (
such has his selection of Condi Rice). Not surprisingly, General
Scowcroft
is often mentioned as the present likely head of MJ-12 or its successor, PI-40.
What if General Scowcroft, being of aging years and perhaps not seeing the harm in the truth being known, has decided to pledge his full "I won't
interfere" (as much cooperation as you could expect) to these people because he knows them and knows that it's very likely that if the NSC fights
them, this will get very public, very fast. This administration does NOT need another scandal. But more on this aspect later, too.
Ok, so what is it that makes me believe that the same old cast of characters is any more likely to permit disclosure now than at any other time in the
past? Well, when I came across the following, it got me thinking.
Sec. 3.1. Definitions. For purposes of this order: (a) "Declassification" means the authorized change in the status of information from classified
information to unclassified information.
(b) "Automatic declassification" means the declassification of information based solely upon:
(1) the occurrence of a specific date or event as determined by the original classification authority; or
(2) the expiration of a maximum time frame for duration of classification established under this order.
(c) "Declassification authority" means:
(1) the official who authorized the original classification, if that official is still serving in the same position;
(2) the originator's current successor in function;
(3) a supervisory official of either; or
(4) officials delegated declassification authority in writing by the agency head or the senior agency official.
Now, lets refer back to what Anon has told us -- that he is part of a group of former DIA officers. That they are in possession of the debriefing
manual ("Red Book") from a classified government project. And that Project was formally closed 25 years ago.
Lets take this one step further. Lets guess that at least one member of Anon's group is lawfully in possession of this material,
because he was
the officer that originally classified the Project. If that's the case, then this person has the authority under EO 12958 to declassify the
information. That would be consistent with Anon's statement that they are trying to release the information with official "sanction". This may
also mean that they are in contact with their successors (people they probably trained or selected for their jobs) and those people have agreed not to
attempt to pursue the exemption of this material, provided that it is properly purged of material which, genuinely, should remain classified.
Sec. 1.5. Classification Categories.
Information may not be considered for classification unless it concerns:
(a) military plans, weapons systems, or operations;
(b) foreign government information;
(c) intelligence activities (including special activities), intelligence sources or methods, or cryptology;
(d) foreign relations or foreign activities of the United States, including confidential sources;
(e) scientific, technological, or economic matters relating to the national security;
(f) United States Government programs for safeguarding nuclear materials or facilities; or
(g) vulnerabilities or capabilities of systems, installations, projects or plans relating to the national security.
Ok, so going back to the present administration and whether the current NSC (Stephen Hadley) will authorize the release of this information. That's
the wildcard. I don't see it happening, but here's what I think may be the facts...
-- Anon's group has banded together for security. One old guy can be easily explained away when he passes on in his sleep. But six, or more, old
guys who have banded together and are keeping records of their discussions? They've made some of these discussions public? AND they can at least
make the case that they have some authority to contest the continued classification of this material? That might be harder.
-- I also suggest that these people were, in fact, highly placed DIA officers. So well connected were they that they were entrusted with stewardship
of this highly-secret information. Respect and connection of this level would dictate that the current administration would find it very difficult
and highly embarrassing if anything untowardly came of these people. In fact, many of the aging leaders of the military and intelligence communities
would probably be more likely to "rat out" the administration than their old colleague.
-- From the "PR side, these guys are probably savvy and told their predecessors that this can be done in a way that 1) there's no scandal for this
administration (although that pesky democratic administration that ordered the cover-up may leave a black mark on the democratic party! Ha!); and,
lets face it, "W" will go along with any plan that gets his fanny off the fire for Iraq, Katrina, Scooter Libby, and whatever else he's porked up
lately.
Yes... this is "thin". Anorexic, perhaps? I know.
But look carefully at the facts, the law, and the dates. It all comes together with many exciting consistencies.
The only thing we need now is the proof.
[edit on 8-12-2005 by Centrist]
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