The scariest article I have read so far

This article was actually on how the EU is not prepared for a flu pandemic if an outbreak of bird flu happened and how there weren't enough stocks of antiviral. They were saying that 25% of each countries population need to be covered with antiviral and that many EU governments don't have that coverage available.

But this sentence in this article brought home to me just how easy it would be for the avian flu virus to mutate. Especially now that I believe flu season has begun.

Medical News Today

Scientists fear that the H5N1 virus could mutate if it infected someone with normal flu. The two viruses would exchange genes, the H5N1 strain would then mutate and become a disease that humans could rapidly spread to other humans. The moment that happened we would experience a flu pandemic (outbreak of flu on a global scale). Humans have no immunity to a mutated virus. The only medicine we have today is Tamiflu, an antiviral drug (not a vaccine, it is given to the patient when he/she has become infected). Unfortunately, cases are already arising of resistance to this antiviral drug.

So is anyone else other than me worried now?

No, Weve had many threats. This is just another one. Eventually some guy will find the cure if not then we die. Don't worry the inevidible is inevidble, if it happens it happens why worry. Just have as much sex as you can before you die...

I've known this for sometime, what blows my mind is that all it takes is this to happen in one person and then we've got a pandemic.

I wouldn't worry though, the chances of it actually mutating are small, and even then we don't know if it will still have the same potency.

The key threat is this: if the initial H5N1 infections are small in both animals and humans, then the risk is reduced. The problem is that a one-in-a-million event would be a lot more commonplace if there are a million organisms that are infected, and that seems to be the general direction that we are moving in.

From what I got on the news tyou had to come into direct contact with a bird who has the disease. Ive never touched a bird in my life besides a parrot that was a pet. I always used gloves when handling hurt birds. Besides that even if it did mutate im sure they would quaintine it or attempt to anyways. We have an anti-viral and I heard Thera-Flu will work well against it. So not to much to worry abuout in the U.S. anyways. I think the biggest threat are the people in poor nations who can't get the help they need.

The important thing to remember is that this has happened throughout history probably more times than any of us have had hot meals. It's a virus. Viruses do this sort of thing. They cull the weak, leave the strong ones who are either immune or able to recover, and then eventually just become part of the background noise of trillions of micro-organisms each fighting for space within a living host. Eventually everything balances itself out. Sometimes it kills a whole lot of people, and sometimes it just passes into obscurity and becomes a part of us. You don't honestly think your body is free of virii do you? On the contrary. They're everywhere. Along with germs, parasites, and nazis. It's just that most of the time, all those little bits are too crowded by the other billion-some-odd entities in your blood system, skin, etc, to actually make any headway.

Don't worry about it. Yeah, it could get bad enough to kill you, or someone you love, but humanity as a whole will go on, and in 5 years there'll be another stupid virus stirring up the media.

Originally posted by thelibra
The important thing to remember is that this has happened throughout history probably more times than any of us have had hot meals. It's a virus. Viruses do this sort of thing. They cull the weak, leave the strong ones who are either immune or able to recover, and then eventually just become part of the background noise of trillions of micro-organisms each fighting for space within a living host. Eventually everything balances itself out. Sometimes it kills a whole lot of people, and sometimes it just passes into obscurity and becomes a part of us. You don't honestly think your body is free of virii do you? On the contrary. They're everywhere. Along with germs, parasites, and nazis. It's just that most of the time, all those little bits are too crowded by the other billion-some-odd entities in your blood system, skin, etc, to actually make any headway.

Don't worry about it. Yeah, it could get bad enough to kill you, or someone you love, but humanity as a whole will go on, and in 5 years there'll be another stupid virus stirring up the media.

Well said.

As scary as is it to think about, this is all just nature playing it's part. Survival of the fittest.

Yeah, I'm a bit concerned about this bird flu thing.
But, I'm equally concerned about the "chicken little" effect.
The governments and media keep crying the sky is falling, and then it doesn't.
Pretty soon, no one listens to their cries.

And, someday, it will be real. :shk:

Also, my mind is becoming super-satuarated with this news bombardment. Unless I am on the computer, I cannot listen to the news

Natures way? Hardly, unless of coures you believe that Nature is a self-sentient being that dictates population control whenever needed it be. The flew 'may' be natural, but it's creation was not under discussion of higher elements managing earths population.

No, Weve had many threats. This is just another one. Eventually some guy will find the cure if not then we die. Don't worry the inevidible is inevidble, if it happens it happens why worry. Just have as much sex as you can before you die...

We live in a global society where the west is a major consumer of products, and a 25 percent drainage in population --which includes deaths, and sickness-- is extremely deliterious to the economy. Not only do you find buyers non-existent, you also find a great deal of said countries work force out of commision serving great economic ramnifications. As AIDS and other such highly deadly diseases is perilous to the economies of third world countries, the bird flu is estimated to be for the world. Don't under estimate it's negative impilications on a global society and all of it's inherent inner-workings.

The important thing to remember is that this has happened throughout history probably more times than any of us have had hot meals. It's a virus. Viruses do this sort of thing.

I'm not sure how many such viruses have existed that have been able to travel to each end of the earth in a matter of days and effectively become heavily perilous to thier societies and how they react accordingly to a global market.

Luxifero

sigh, who needs any more paranoia in the world?

Nothing you can do about it, you might as well enjoy life. 90% of the worries never happen anyway, just look back through recent history.

I am not going to worry at all about this hyped up flu bs. this sounds like sars of last year. i did not get a shot last year and i laugh at all of the chicken littles that will.

sigh, who needs any more paranoia in the world?

Do tell me how this is paranoia when highly credited sources have been dissuaded from stating the obvious fact that this can become a global epidemic very easily if it does mutate, and the possibility of it mutating maybe under scrutiny in regards to when, but it still remains that it will eventualy.

Nothing you can do about it, you might as well enjoy life. 90% of the worries never happen anyway, just look back through recent history.

Scientists fear that the H5N1 virus could mutate if it infected someone with normal flu. The two viruses would exchange genes, the H5N1 strain would then mutate and become a disease that humans could rapidly spread to other humans. The moment that happened we would experience a flu pandemic (outbreak of flu on a global scale). Humans have no immunity to a mutated virus. The only medicine we have today is Tamiflu, an antiviral drug (not a vaccine, it is given to the patient when he/she has become infected). Unfortunately, cases are already arising of resistance to this antiviral drug

This is not fear mongering, it's substantiated fear based on a priori judgements.

Luxifero

Actually the Bird Flu variations (H5N1a, H5N1b, H5N1c, H5N1d and H5N1e) are all retro-viruses.

Curiously, only those who are currenly taking the HIV antiviral "cocktail" medication at the moment will be completely innoculated against these retroviruses as they mutate through the general population.

Would make for an interesting scenario for the hundreds of overweight Jerry Fallwell "bible believing christian" congregations out there. They'd probably come up with a story to explain all the deaths of their precious darlings ("it's the gays that started this bird flue thing.....look, the ones taking AIDS medications are the only ones NOT getting Bird Flu ! They must be the ones behind it...!!!!")

I wonder if Jerry Fatso himself will succumb to it...it should be interesting to see how the US media will cover this one !

The way I see it, there are far worse things to spend time worrying about that you have control over. Sure, I suppose any virus has the capability of killing off 25% of mankind. So does a meteor, nuclear war, quantum-scale total existance failure, stable strangelets, black holes, supernovas, matter/anti-matter reactions, vaccuum energy detonation, critical orbital variance, another ice age, another hot age, any number of diseases, the eruption of a super volcanoe, and so forth...

Face it: even if this virus is the worst plague to ever hit mankind, there is absolutely nothing you can do about it unless you have the resources available to stop it, which frankly, I doubt any of us do. So stressing about it is about as useful as stressing over any of the things I mentioned above.

What can you do about it? Well, you could go to college, devote your entire life towards preventing your terror of choice from happening, and set all your savings aside into a fine interest-bearing foundation that will one day send more kids to college on scholarship so your cause can continue.

That's it, buddy. Otherwise, you can focus your energy worrying about things you DO have control over, such as your finances, driving safely, keeping fit, eating right, and spending time with loved ones. Anything else is simply an excercise in futility.

Just so everyone knows I am NOT panicked about this -- I AM concerned. I have done some things in preparation in case it does happen. I haven't gone crazy over it. One thing I have done and am doing is drying fruits and veggies --- which is not a bad thing when you live in an area that has hurricanes and power outages on a pretty regular basis. So none of it will go to waste.

Also -- I know that most people aren't in contact with birds on a regular basis so like the one person who said he is only in contact with the pet parrot you are the norm. However the basis of what I am saying is if you work on a farm or poultry farm - and there is bird flu there (there could be in Turkey, Croatia, Greece - any place that has it) and you have the regular flu you could be the incubator for the change over to a flu that could infect people. You don't even have to know what is wrong with the birds or you yet to be that incubator. Then you go home or out shopping or for a drink with friends and pass it on -- and so forth. It isn't a scenario that is off the wall at all.



[edit on 18-10-2005 by justme1640]

Originally posted by justme1640
Also -- I know that most people aren't in contact with birds on a regular basis so like the one person who said he is only in contact with the pet parrot you are the norm.

I can see where this could affect average citizens, though.
Many people feed birds. Ducks, pigeons (damn dirty birds), cardinals, sparrows, finches, your regular backyard varieites.
They do their bodily functions, sometimes in Fido's water dish.
So, we might need to remove bird feeders and pet's water sources.
I'll have to make sure to feed only my squirrels and not the local winged ones

Handling birds with gloves doesnt help against a viral disease.

And just because the EU isnt ready for a pandemic, it doesnt mean that we have to be so concerned. There is still plenty of time until/if it mutates, and by then the governments is probably going to strike down fast against outbreaks and put them in quarantine.

Originally posted by thelibra
The important thing to remember is that this has happened throughout history probably more times than any of us have had hot meals. It's a virus. Viruses do this sort of thing. They cull the weak, leave the strong ones who are either immune or able to recover, and then eventually just become part of the background noise of trillions of micro-organisms each fighting for space within a living host. Eventually everything balances itself out. Sometimes it kills a whole lot of people, and sometimes it just passes into obscurity and becomes a part of us. You don't honestly think your body is free of virii do you? On the contrary. They're everywhere. Along with germs, parasites, and nazis. It's just that most of the time, all those little bits are too crowded by the other billion-some-odd entities in your blood system, skin, etc, to actually make any headway.

Don't worry about it. Yeah, it could get bad enough to kill you, or someone you love, but humanity as a whole will go on, and in 5 years there'll be another stupid virus stirring up the media.

One problem. The 1918 "Spanish Flu" mostly killed the most robust of the crowds ie men and women ages 23-35. Thats the bummer.

when reading these kinds of news stories is to boil down what is being said into what is quantifiable. There is much talk about what "could" happen, or what "might" happen. Talking about a possible mutation of two viruses is just not quantifiable. It isn't real! The two could combine to form the deadliest flu known to history, or they could combine and be the next cure for AIDS. Or, they could combine and cause monkeys to fly out of my butt! But chances are, they won't combine. And if they do, chances are the mutation will be non-viable in either host, if the combining takes place naturally. Most mutations that occur naturally are disasters, not improvements. And why is it that these two strains are the only ones that the media have been told to worry us over? Aren't there potentially tens of thousands of viruses, even more, that are just lying in wait for the chance to dry hump one and other and create the next airborne leprosy/hepatitis/ebola retrovirus? Why are the officials so concerned over the union of just these two?

But if the combining takes place in the laboratory, then certainly with enough time and enough generations and enough funding, a viable human-killing pandemic flu bug could be created. And certainly the guys at the lab would know which two strains were potentially the most infectious and deadly. And after all, isn't that the stated goal of certain "powers that be" worldwide: 6 billion to 500 million? "Save the planet! Kill humanity!"

Of course that is paranoid fantasy. If there were a real plot to reduce the human population by some 90%, then most likely the warnings of the threat of a pandemic would be followed by dire warnings of the necessity of forced quarantines and inoculations at gunpoint--even bringing in the armed forces and suspending the civil rights of all people (which of course, with a 4-6 day incubation period, would do absolutely nothing to control the spread of the disease--but what a great opportunity to inject the majority of people with a transceiving microscopic RFID chip?!)

But in the natural world, this catastrophic recombination of retroviruses is very unlikely to happen. And since it has not yet happned, it is impossible to prepare vaccines to fight against it--how can you make an antiviral for a virus variant that doesn't yet exist? And if and when such a recombination does occur, it will be impossible to concoct a vaccine against it in 10, 30, 90, or even a hundred days--long after the brunt of the infection is felt in our population. So what good will inoculations do, or even the army, for that matter?

As the Libra stated, it is much more efficient and feasible to be concerned over the things in your life that you can control. Be responsible for your own self, and your own emotions! Because in case you haven't noticed, life is a terminal process, and it always ends up the same way: in death. So when the time to go comes, if you are taking care of your own life and self responsibly, then that day will be a good day to die, and you can be sure you will die well.

Luxifero, all these experts that have made all these statements regarding pandemics, etc. are just doing the job they are paid to do--support the pharmaceutical industry and their attempts to become the dominant industry in our culture. They want their products legislated to be mandatory, and their liabilities legislated to be exempt. Have you noticed that here in the US, there are scandals rocking the staid ships of the FDA, CDC, IOM, and NIMH? There are catastrophic conflicts of interest at every level of these organizations, and their litany of bad calls grows longer and more shocking every month. And funny how the pharmcos were the largest contributors to the both parties in the last election!

The real job of these so-called experts of aliopathy is to stir up strong emotional responses among the intended infectious target populations. Emotions are the key to health, and the key to dis-ease, as well! With the right mental conditioning, the viruses are inconsequential, you can either survive them against all stated odds, or you can die from the disease before the disease ever actually exists. You decide!

Originally posted by without_prejudice
Snip... But chances are, they won't combine. And if they do, chances are the mutation will be non-viable in either host, if the combining takes place naturally. Most mutations that occur naturally are disasters, not improvements...

Aren't there potentially tens of thousands of viruses, even more, that are just lying in wait for the chance to dry hump one and other and create the next airborne leprosy/hepatitis/ebola retrovirus? snip...

But in the natural world, this catastrophic recombination of retroviruses is very unlikely to happen. And since it has not yet happned, it is impossible to prepare vaccines to fight against it--how can you make an antiviral for a virus variant that doesn't yet exist?..snip

Wow. You need to read up on what and how virues work dude.

H5N1 is not a retrovirus...HIV is.

There are 16 H and 9 N possible combinations for influenza type A

Virues do not "combine" they either mutate (long time for this to happen) or they "reassort" (swap genes) or they "recombine" (exchange parts of the genome from other virus") to create novel combinations that allow rapid transmission between hosts.

You should read up on "elegant eveloution".