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Economic `Armageddon' predicted

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posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 01:43 PM
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Economic `Armageddon' predicted
By Brett Arends/ On State Street
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

But you should hear what he's saying in private.

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.

His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''

Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''

Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''

The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.


So sayeth the Boston Herald today.

I'm sure anyone living and breathing knows we are in strange times, and is trying to see which way the wind will blow. All of us have a stake in the US economy in some way, whethers it's as workers, investors, or just folks trying to keep their loved ones fed and housed.

A tiny percentage of us have the resources and knowhow to surf this tidal wave, the rest of us must wait until it breaks overtop of us to see what will be left. As if there wasn't enough to worry about in the world.

--Saerlaith




posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 01:48 PM
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Roach doesn't know what he is talking about.

He's an overpaid buffoon.



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 02:04 PM
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Originally posted by moxyone
Roach doesn't know what he is talking about.

He's an overpaid buffoon.


Because the information in his presentation is wrong in the following ways...

Seriously, can you back up your asertation? I'm not versed enough in economic theory to even begin to address any points Roach may have made, but if you are, I'd love to hear it.

I'm not saying that I buy Roach's theory, just that I'm not a big fan of ad hominem arguments.



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 02:07 PM
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i agree with you

Ad hominem arguments only when they have merit...believe me...he's been spouting the same crap for years.

Morgan Stanley= Den of thieves

Am off for Turkey Break...will dig up some of his pearls and cite them when I get a chance.



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 02:19 PM
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Originally posted by moxyone
Roach doesn't know what he is talking about.

He's an overpaid buffoon.


Please invest all of your money immediatly. I know several companies that can assist you.



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 02:27 PM
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Originally posted by moxyone
i agree with you

Ad hominem arguments only when they have merit...believe me...he's been spouting the same crap for years.

Morgan Stanley= Den of thieves

Am off for Turkey Break...will dig up some of his pearls and cite them when I get a chance.


Cool, thanks. Enjoy your walking bird



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 03:12 PM
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Roach is right you know, you cannot keep spending more than you earn forever without there being consequences.....

But it is jolly good fun while it lasts.



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 05:23 PM
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Since the creation of credit cards we have been on this road down to an economic catastrophe, but as a pretty young fella all I can ask of those old enough to remember a time before credit, what can we do? Personally? I have a minor credit card debt that I used for the emergency of being kicked out by my step-mother. I used it to survive for a couple months on end on my credit card alone. After that fiasco I realized just how seductive and evil that little card could be.

What I would like to know, we are all in debt in some way shape or form, even if you have lots and lots of money. Everything you have is on loan at some point or another. That is how the government and such keep their control over us. We have to get a loan to buy a place....we spend years paying that off. cars, same thing. So, are we truely free? If we are not, what CAN we do? Cause I will not suffer myself to bend knee to the Caesars of this country. But there must be another way then to live on the streets or book out of the country. Thank you all for reading my reply if you did, thank you for not yelling at me, if you did not.



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 07:10 PM
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I remember the same stuff before and during Reagons terms.

The world didn't come to and end then and it wont now. All we need is a economic upswing and we are home free.

As a matter of fact I would advise anyone with extra money to invest in stocks. That is how the rich get richer is by having money to invest in times like these, when the market is either bottomed out or close.

I read some where if you had 100$ to invest BEFORE the stock market crash in the 30s you would be a millionaire today. These things come in cycles



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 07:20 PM
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Not entirely true. We have certainly been brainwashed to think that way.

They get us three ways, taxation, interest charges, and inflation.

But you can live interest free by just not borrowing. SAVE UP for things, spend less, and invest the surplus in something that gives you a return. After many years you will have enough investment income not to have to work at all. It is called "retirement". I retired at 51, and am enjoying every minute of it.

A mate of mine is always winging about the interest he has to pay on six different credit cards he keeps maxed out. He says that without those credit cards he would have no life worth living. I say get rid of the damned things and get the parasites off your back for good. He just cannot see it.

I just visited the bank today. The teller shoved a printed page into my hand inviting me to take out a loan. Turn the equity in my fully paid for home into cash, so I can get myself into debt. Fat chance.



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 07:48 PM
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But the stock market isn't bottomed out or close. It's inflated. Both the Dow index, and the total NASDAQ are at higher volume than they've ever been. The stock market has a better chance, in my opinion, to drop right now than rise.

What I see, is that the debt we as individuals, and our government is acruing, is soon going to be insurmountable. If it isn't already.

This, from some socialists quoting the Fed Reserve Board:



...consumer debt hit $1.98 trillion in October 2003, up from $1.5 trillion three years ago. This figure, representing credit card and car loan debt, but excluding mortgages, translates into approximately $18,700 per US household.


Outstanding consumer credit, including mortgage and other debt, reached $9.3 trillion in April 2003, representing an increase from $7 trillion in January 2000. The total credit card debt alone stands at $735 billion, with the household card debt of those who carry balances estimated to average $12,000.


So then the average household debt of Americans including credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages, is well in excess of $30,000.

Alan Greenspan has been telling us lately that this is ok. Our market reacts more to Greenspan's opinion than to actual market conditions. Why do you think he's telling us its ok? Because it's his job.



from www.federalreserve.gov...
CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING
(Billions of dollars)
Not seasonally adjusted

----------------Jul r------Aug r---Sep p
Total---------2028.5 2044.0 2055.3




[edit on 23-11-2004 by DeltaChaos]



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 09:33 PM
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Hell I am in worse shape than that and I am not to worried. I have everything locked in at less than 6% so I can survive.

I paid for my college with VISA - It's everywhere you want to be,


There were no grants to pay for diapers, gas, rent etc. It was VISA.

No I make a little better money and my 10 year plan is looking more like a 15 year one...but oh well..



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 10:47 PM
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Originally posted by edsinger
There were no grants to pay for diapers, gas, rent etc. It was VISA.


Dang it Ed! I don't think we all need to know that you wear diapers.


"Neither a Lendor nor Debtor be"

Good advice to follow in my opinion.



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 11:20 PM
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i would advice anyone that wants to make money now to only buy stocks in defense, or in some technology stocks, but the safest way to invest is to do so in gold, silver, Platinum or any of the metals. Silver seems set up to surpass even gold in earnings. When the economy is in bad shape, gold and silver always increase in value; this has always been true. Platinum is also doing pretty good, but it is twice as expensive as gold.

SILVER POISED TO SKYROCKET

GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS APPEAR READY TO SOAR

NY gold, silver rise early on lower dollar

Another good thing about gold and silver is that they are universal, it can be bartered all over the Earth. Gold is now at $447.70, a year ago on November it was at $396. Silver is at $7.55 while at this same time last year it was at $5.41, it doesn't sound much, but it actually is if you invest enough. The good thing about gold and silver is that they will always survive any depression. Gold is believed to go as high as $500 dollars or more next year.

The following are some links to the prices of gold and Silver through the years up to today.

www.pwc.com...$FILE/ggps_1203.pdf

www.silverinstitute.org...

This is a link on reports on the increase in price of gold for next year.
www.thebulliondesk.com...

China, Russia and other countries in the world are buying gold now like there is no tomorrow. i think they all know something is going to happen and gold/silver is the way to go.

For the first time in Russias history gold and currency reserves have exceeded $100 billion

Gold and currency reserves show record increase

Focus: China's gold rush

In conclusion, if the economy is going downhill like some people say, expect gold, silver, platinum and other metals to increase in value and perhaps even be the only way to trade internationally. Gold/silver are the currency of the world, so you can use it anywhere, it's better than Visa or Mastercard. ;p




[edit on 23-11-2004 by Muaddib]



posted on Nov, 23 2004 @ 11:42 PM
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I posted that news item as I was in the middle of trying to research the best course of action for my household in light of the oil/dollar mess. Even though I worked for a couple of financial companies, I never really understood some of the currency and global commodities markets. I've read enough today to make me scared in some ways, but also kind of exhilarated that my planning instincts have been pretty good.

I think the people that invest in the stock market and hold out til it comes round again, are the ones with a lot to invest. Not the average folk with a couple grand to play day trader. There just isn't enough cushion. The profit margins on a few shares isn't enough to make up for a downturn when you have a mortgage payment due next week. I think the wheelers & dealers have bulk money and can ride on the interest their investments generate.

As for gold and silver, I'm reading the same things. Buy it up now, and there are almost no currencies in the world backed by reality. And that China owns most of the US debt and doesn't feel like playing nice with the dollar any more. That being said, I knw nothing about buying metals, and I'm not sure if I should risk the money I have saved for a house.

So my interim plan, until the housing market goes bust and I can get more house for my buck, is to buy things that will get me through inflation and any job trouble. I'm buying food that I can sit on a while, and integrate it into my weekly meal planning. It takes a big chunl of my budget offline down the road, when the dollar may buy less, oil shortages may send shipping costs up & so on.

I also have no debt but a little I owe on 20 acres of land. No car payments, no credit cards, and a job that is likely to stick around through a recession.

urbansurvival.com... Give this a read for one take on planning ahead and watching trends.

--Saerlaith



posted on Nov, 24 2004 @ 12:54 AM
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Ahh, but let's not forget one of the best cure alls for an ailing and falling economy, which is (drum roll, please)..... WAR.

One, it destroys infrastructure that will need to be replaced which equals jobs during reconstruction....

And two, it more importantly culls the population, and reduces the number of heads available for the labor force.

Its always a problem when there are more people than there are jobs to be had. And that's a problem with people living longer and getting good health care with no epidemics killing off large numbers of people in a single stroke, etc.

Livestock have to be culled when their numbers get too large to be supported by a ranch when there is a negative return on investment.

So, in the world of governments a corporate suits, maybe a little war can be staged to create business and reduce the employable head count.

Only a global catastrophe on the order of comet impact would do a better job, but not big enough to kill everyone mind you.



posted on Nov, 24 2004 @ 02:00 AM
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I'm of two minds on this subject.
The first is that this is bull.
The second is that I knda hope it happens.
As amuk pointed out times of economic meltdown are also tmes of unbridled opportunity.
Minor investments in the market 1yr ago would have already paid off a substansial return.
When everybody was afraid I was buying.
To quote the oracle of Omaha,
When people are fearful, get greedy, when people are greedy, get fearful.
If an economic armegeddon happens I wil come out of it richer than ever.
The reason why is that I have no debt, Fairly substansial capital reserves, and I know how to invest.



posted on Nov, 24 2004 @ 02:45 AM
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He is not referring to the pooling of Capital as predicted by Marx, it must be some other kind of econimic armageddon.

For those not up to speed on the teachings of Marx... the pooling of Capital is the end-game scenario of Capitalism, when one player has won all the money (capital), see how-to win at Monopoly



posted on Nov, 24 2004 @ 02:48 AM
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You would have to be blind if ppl havent noticed the economic downfall of the usa during last 4-5 years..now its reaching the critical point and after that..
..well u know.
-ap



posted on Nov, 24 2004 @ 08:48 AM
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Our internal national debt is also not owed to American financial institutions. Our loans are drawn mainly on Chinese and Japanese banks. When previous leadership was confronted about the problem of debt, they could easily dismiss that it was a problem by pointing out that our debt was drawn on our banking system, and that the interest we paid was paid back to ourselves, and therefore only strengthened our own economy. Now, we are paying interest to and investing in other countries, many of whom are potential enemies.




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