reply to post by Floydshayvious
Hi Dear readers,
I have chosen this reply of Floydshayvious to return to the thread, since I think it is quite interesting. I sincerely think that
if we should be in a stable world economy possible that claim might be absolutely correct, but we are not in healthy economic
scenario, in fact we are quite far from it.
The fact that the huge Recession that is affecting various European countries has not trasspassed the Alps in to North Europe, not yet, and that it
has not also moved across the North Atlantic is not necessarily a symptom of a good global economy.
We have seen in 2013 and the begining of 2014 how Chinese economy has started to tremble, they are doing a disparate effort to control bank rupcies
with rescue operations that we certainly don't know how much can weak the stability of the macroeconomy in that country.
Now, there are countries in this side of the Atlantic that used to be Strong economies in the 1990s and in the 2000s, like Mexico, Venezuela and
Colombia that are now extremely recessed, with so high unemployment rates.
Chile is still stable, but it is in some sense a situation that depend entirely of the fact that America enter or not in to recession again, since
there are too many communication vessels in between the two economies.
Brasil and Argentina are moving ahead but primarily thanks to the so low prices of oil they have gotten from their agreements with Venezuela, not
because the economic growing is really high. However, there is a dangerious polarization of the economy, the wealth that has been created has had a
so high price in extension of the number of people falling into extreme poverty.
It is just enough to have a completely out of control scenario in Egypt to have in question of weeks a really grave global economic cataclysm due to
the so negative impact that an eventual closing of Suez Canal can produce on the oil Prices.
Now, Ukraine crisis can perfectly trigger the explosion of more similar conflicts in other countries of eastern europe, or the mediterranean, imagine
for instance the so bad example that this can give to countries like Egypt, Greece, Cyprus or Turkey, so close to it and so affected by a relatively
permanent recession that is so deep right now.
Great Britain has understood the social aspect of this crisis, and the urgency to stop it before it becomes the first stage of a domino effect all
around the black sea. British are aware that no body wants to deal more with German Bankers, after what they have done with Cypriots and Greeks, so
they are trying to support financially Ukraine, in a disparate attempt to prevent war.
If Putin enters in to Ukraine, with a military intervention, we certainly are going to see in course of collision economies that until now were
considered relatively healthy, as are Germany and Russia. One thing is sure, Russia has openly declared what happened this weekend in Ukraine as a
coup, and so it is not going to accept any provisional government, not at least with many considerations and political compromises for whoever wants
to take the power in Kiev.
Russia is determined to don't allow Ukraine to become a base of NATO missiles, so it is clear that is not going to accept in no way the entrance of
that country in The European Union.
Ukraine has a huge Russian population inside its borders, Russians are the principal minority of that land, and the Russian ethnically Ukrainians do
not want to move away from the political sphere of Russia. This makes the scenario of Civil war perfectly real.
For now, Mr Putin has decided to remain publically silent, but he has already started phone contacts with Berlin and with USA, seeing that Ukraine
situation is extremely delicate and volatile, and feeling that there is a lot in game if he decides to take action, also knowing that possibly there
will no way to go back after that moment arrives.
It is likely that he also is trying to refrain his own Generals that possibly are willing to enter right now in action, before it can be too much late
to protect Russian interests.
My impression is that we are seeing a very similar scenario than the one of Munich Agreement of 1938, then it was Czechoslovaquia, now it is instead
Ukraine, then was the ending of Berlin Olympia of 1936 and now the one of Sochi, then it was an attempt to prevent WWII , now is the same story when
all the great powers see clearly that we are approaching a point of no return. This is the very last lights of the sunset before the dark night
Thanks to all of you, in spite if I disagree or not with your points of view on this issue, for all your very interesting replies in this thread.
The Angel of Lightness
edit on 2/24/2014 by The angel of light because: (no reason given)