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The bitterly cold winter the country is experiencing now took government climatologists completely by surprise, but was predicted with dead-center accuracy by the Old Farmer’s Almanac, a 200 year-plus publication.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center worked feverishly, plugging all available data into supercomputers to predict temperatures would be “above normal from November through January across much of the lower 48 states,” according to Bloomberg Businessweek.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which made its winter predictions way back during the summer, used terms like “bitter,” “biting” and piercing” to describe how cold it was going to be, according to CBS News — and it was spot on.
Knight points out that the Farmers' Almanac words its predictions imprecisely, making it difficult to assess their accuracy.
"They say from November 5 thru 10, for that whole period: sunny/cool. If one day is sunny and cool, does that count? Does every day have to be sunny and cool? If you held them to every single word for the entire area and every word for the entire period, then I say they might not even be right one third of the time. In fact, they might be right 10 percent of the time." Acknowledges Knight, "I don't think they're holding themselves to that degree of accuracy, and I don't think other people are either."
"The forecasts are sometimes correct. In terms of getting the sense of the weather anomalies right, for example whether it will be colder or warmer than normal, the OFA is correct about 50 percent of the time," said Bond.
"Of course this is no better than flipping a coin," he added.
Winter will be colder and drier than normal, but with above-normal snowfall in much of the region.
The coldest periods will be in early and late December, early to mid-January, and early February. The snowiest periods will be in early to mid-February and in late February.
reply to post by 727Sky
The gov will never use OFA formula for the weather because including the solar cycles will be admitting there is no such thing as global warming.
reply to post by 727Sky
But, but, but the Farmer's Almanac isn't politically correct!
Our weather forecasts must take all politics into account!