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Farmer’s Almanac nails winter freeze; government climate scientists way off !

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posted on Feb, 23 2014 @ 08:14 PM
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The bitterly cold winter the country is experiencing now took government climatologists completely by surprise, but was predicted with dead-center accuracy by the Old Farmer’s Almanac, a 200 year-plus publication.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center worked feverishly, plugging all available data into supercomputers to predict temperatures would be “above normal from November through January across much of the lower 48 states,” according to Bloomberg Businessweek.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which made its winter predictions way back during the summer, used terms like “bitter,” “biting” and piercing” to describe how cold it was going to be, according to CBS News — and it was spot on.

They attribute their success to including solar cycle figures in their forcast
www.bizpacreview.com...
The Almanac forecast was made mid summer and the following link has the video where he explains some of their technique; interesting... Maybe the government forecasters could learn a few things from the Almanac boys and girls

www.wusa9.com...




posted on Feb, 23 2014 @ 09:10 PM
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reply to post by 727Sky
 


But, but, but the Farmer's Almanac isn't politically correct!
Our weather forecasts must take all politics into account!



posted on Feb, 23 2014 @ 09:23 PM
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Knight points out that the Farmers' Almanac words its predictions imprecisely, making it difficult to assess their accuracy.

"They say from November 5 thru 10, for that whole period: sunny/cool. If one day is sunny and cool, does that count? Does every day have to be sunny and cool? If you held them to every single word for the entire area and every word for the entire period, then I say they might not even be right one third of the time. In fact, they might be right 10 percent of the time." Acknowledges Knight, "I don't think they're holding themselves to that degree of accuracy, and I don't think other people are either."



news.psu.edu...


"The forecasts are sometimes correct. In terms of getting the sense of the weather anomalies right, for example whether it will be colder or warmer than normal, the OFA is correct about 50 percent of the time," said Bond.

"Of course this is no better than flipping a coin," he added.


news.discovery.com...



posted on Feb, 23 2014 @ 09:26 PM
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reply to post by 727Sky
 


The gov will never use OFA formula for the weather because including the solar cycles will be admitting there is no such thing as global warming.



posted on Feb, 23 2014 @ 09:29 PM
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If you look on the map in the video from the OP link, it says "Cold and wet" and "Cold and snowy" for California.

California drought.



posted on Feb, 23 2014 @ 09:34 PM
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reply to post by boncho
 


if the government lie holds true
it takes moisture to form rain and snow
this comes out of the environment
which causes drought



posted on Feb, 23 2014 @ 10:43 PM
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I bet that really chaps their hide. The Almanac has a pretty good knack for predicting the weather, and we have purchased one for as long as I can remember. Maybe it is more of a southern thing, but around here everyone usually has one handy in their house. Common sense and observational skills account for a lot of the accuracy and they do as well as the guys with all the high tech equipment pretty frequently.

It reminds me of this:



Sometimes not everything has to be so ridiculously complicated to work.



posted on Feb, 23 2014 @ 10:48 PM
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reply to post by 727Sky
 


It was spot on for where I live here in South Carolina:



Winter will be colder and drier than normal, but with above-normal snowfall in much of the region.
The coldest periods will be in early and late December, early to mid-January, and early February. The snowiest periods will be in early to mid-February and in late February.


Link

They nailed the frozen precp, we had snow (rare for us), major ice storm (not rare except for the amounts of this one).

Not sure if we'll have more snow for late Feb, as the days are running short for the month and the cold seems to have abated.



posted on Feb, 24 2014 @ 12:16 AM
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ohioriver
reply to post by 727Sky
 


The gov will never use OFA formula for the weather because including the solar cycles will be admitting there is no such thing as global warming.


They'll Admit to the Accuracy of the O F A as soon as Al Gore say's he invented it like he did the internet.




edit on 24-2-2014 by guohua because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 24 2014 @ 01:41 PM
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The almanac is still way off if you take into account the words of those who have been underplaying the weather's severity, a la "In my day..."



posted on Feb, 24 2014 @ 01:54 PM
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I get it straight from an old farmer....he is always right.
This autumn, when so many walnuts were falling from the trees, he said that it was a sign we would be having a long cold winter. (Extra food for the little critters to store away). We have indeed been having a long cold winter here in SW Ontario Canada.

Funny thing, I watch the weather network on tv, and it is BARELY even close to what we get, weather-wise. Sometimes their forecast on the tv is completely different to the forecast on their web site....? (for the exact same location)

jacy



posted on Feb, 24 2014 @ 02:07 PM
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ItCameFromOuterSpace
reply to post by 727Sky
 


But, but, but the Farmer's Almanac isn't politically correct!
Our weather forecasts must take all politics into account!


And justify the hundreds of millions spent on equipment and guessers..i mean forecasters.



posted on Feb, 24 2014 @ 02:11 PM
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reply to post by jacygirl
 

I hear you on the clear-miss forecasts. It's been like that for us in FL, although not exactly new. Well, sort of. It's usually within a few degrees, and sometimes the rain forecasts are blatant misses. It seems they were "off" on the forecasts more often this winter so far.
This past August/September, our deciduous trees started dropping leaves a little earlier, and I told my husband, "Hey, check that out, they're turning and dropping earlier this year. Dollars to donuts we get an extended cold snap at some point." And we did, in January, 2 weeks of 50's and 60's (I was in 7th Heaven!) Cooler than normal from my memory, a lot more days in the 50's than we normally get, and no 70's.



posted on Feb, 24 2014 @ 05:24 PM
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Click on your area and get a freebie long range weather report...

www.farmersalmanac.com...

the Farmers Almanac was accurate for my location this year. Much better than Intellicast or Accuweather.




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