Trading Ahead

It's been a while since I've authored a thread on financial matters. One of the last threads I posted about was margin pressure in inflationary environments and how that would affect companies. Indeed, it did affect many, and for a few months unemployment was driven by margin pressure. That said, many companies have managed to create distance in their margins, they have better cash flows, better profits, and undervalued stock prices.

The market is very emotional. But the public is even more so and can sometimes drive investor sentiment, in turn, this can affect stock prices in a favorable way.

Ever since the BP Gulf oil spill the consumer has since soured on oil in general. This is not to say that they aren't using oil and oil based products, they just don't like oil companies. This sentiment has led to a lot of negative speculation in oil commodity stocks and ETFs for some time, despite great performance from oil companies.

Summer is coming:

Summer is the season to drive. With that comes increased purchases of gasoline, diesel, and other oil products. Taking a look at the cyclical consumption trends of oil I have found that starting in March, the upward trend of increased oil stock prices will begin. Oil stocks and ETFs are going to be leaders in the market and are going to make investors like me a good chunk of change. The energy sector is booming right now. It is producing more and demand is up. Come summer I believe this boom is going to turn into an explosion. Will it last? Probably in other ways, always good to diversify which is why I also have holdings in the alternative energy sector and in natural gas(for seasonal reasons). Come next winter oil will likely take a step back as it always does barring huge news in production or refining methods, which are unlikely. Right now, before the market becomes to overvalued to buy into, I recommend buy some well performing oil/energy stocks and ETFs, as well as investing in alternative energy, in the coming weeks. Come summer they will pay off.

Shiny and New:

The technology sector is led by a few giants. But those giants rely on smaller materials companies to make their products happen. There are currently companies who have huge contracts with Apple, Microsoft, Samsung and others who are providing the materials necessary to make their new and shiny toys possible. Like the crack resistant touchscreens being provided for Apple to mention one.

I recommend raw material ETFs and stocks for the foreseeable future.

Sneezing and Stemcells:

Biotechnology and healthcare stocks are about to get a boon. Which is the whole reason why ACA was created in the first place. If you want some of that money back I recommend investing in stocks and ETFs in this sector for the short term. Long term this law will do more harm than good as people begin to get priced out of insurance and end up simply paying the fines.

Bling Bling:

No gold or silver ETFs or related stocks are recommended. In general I always recommend holding commodities, but hard commodities like gold and silver are better in physical possession. If you are intent on it, buy physical, leave the paper for suckers.

BBQ Time!

Foodstuffs(coffee, wheat, sugar...etc.), raw materials, oil, water, natural gas, and other commodities are essential parts of stock holdings. But be choosy on what companies or ETFs you buy and hold.

The Last Dollar:

Financials. While I am a huge fan of investing and trading in general, companies whose whole business is trading and investing are dangerous. Many of these companies, while they are posting awesome profits and stock performance, are not a recommended buy long term. Trading companies, banks, and other financial institutions are best left for short term trading.


This concludes my trading forecast.

reply to post by projectvxn


ive recently just barely gotten into physical gold and silver...a lot of people talk about how when the meltdown happens it will be worthless as "you can't eat it" or "its just metal". Where I think gold and silver really shines (pun intended) is it will become the currency before the entire meltdown.

Inflation will happen first...increasing the value of gold and silver allowing you to purchase what you think you need at the moment...possibly even a trip the heck out of the country.....Inflation should happen before total collapse. As much as I am a prepper..I think physical gold and silver could go a long way in that uncertainty period of "will we make it?".

rumor and speculation also says that pot producers that LEGALLY operate, are seeing a mega explosion in there stock prices due to Washington and Colorado's legalization. most are penny stocks and you have to sift through them, BUT if you have a taste for some massive risk, there is also massive rewards. I would have to agree with everything you said above though.

reply to post by camain


I've only passively looked into the pot companies.

While they're stock is looking good now, the people who will really benefit from this are going to be big pharma companies who have the legal farms and the means of distribution. All they need is for legislation to continue favoring legalization and the market will continue to open up in ways we don't yet realize.

While you can grow your own, most people don't, just like most people don't produce their own beer or their own cigarettes. The companies with the logistical infrastructure to make delivery on such goods are going to be pharma companies and maybe even beer producers.