China flexes its military muscle in the Sunda Strait

reply to post by Rosha


A worrying development to say the least.

Indo posturing and building forces in the area and now Chinese warships.

Could it be a little more ambitious than just re-claiming East Timor... Like extending much, much further south... "Like Melbourne"....lol

All jokes aside, it is a tad disturbing.

Well here is a good article from the New Zealand Herald

The United States has already responded with a shift in its naval emphasis to the region, increasing its marine presence in Australia and the intention to base 60 per cent of its warships in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020.

This next bit is very interesting,

Chinese warships are rapidly gaining new potency through advanced technology. This month a Song class diesel-electric attack submarine slipped past screening US warships to surface within striking range of a US aircraft carrier. That set the alarm bells ringing.

www.nzherald.co.nz...


In relation to the last quote I can only find a story from the Daily Mail site. If true it wouldn't be the first time a carrier was shadowed by Chinese subs.

American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk - a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board. By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier.

It would seam that the high level of US tech has a few flaws,

The lone Chinese vessel slipped past at least a dozen other American warships which were supposed to protect the carrier from hostile aircraft or submarines. And the rest of the costly defensive screen, which usually includes at least two U.S. submarines, was also apparently unable to detect it.

www.dailymail.co.uk...


The only story I can find about Chinese sub's near a US carrier was back in 2006, so take the above story as rubbish until proven otherwise.

Three stories highlighting the current political situation in Asia.

China just made an alliance with Taiwan ending 67 years of conflict.
themindfulpatriot.blogspot.com...

America makes makes a treaty with the Philippines
themindfulpatriot.blogspot.com...

China is now positioning its self for war:
themindfulpatriot.blogspot.com...

Yep the New Zealand Herald article is bogus. The USS Kitty Hawk has already been decommissioned.
Howz that for crappy reporting

www.whaleoil.co.nz...
They must have picked up the story from the Daily Mail perhaps.

Rosha
I see your points, and can only respond from what I know, and that is, that this may have been true before they signed defense and economic agreements with Russia and Iran, but it is no longer true today. Maybe it would be more correct though to say China are one large part of an emerging super power 'block'.

They also do have a substantial missile capability and technological resources that have yet to be fully disclosed along with regional networks close to Au and globally that will support and defend them, in preference to open support or defense of the US.

Russia, Iran, and China combined do not have an economy as large nor as dynamic as the US (nominally). Neither do those three nations combined spend nearly as much as the United States, nor do they have the type of force projection capabilities that the US has. Thats just compared to one single nation (albeit the most powerful nation on Earth, but still.) However, all things created equal, lets now also consider NATO forces alongside the US (a defense bloc in its own).

NATO (combined) Statistics:

GDP: $38 Trillion

Population: 906 Million

Military Spending: $1.38 Trillion (75% of all the worlds military spending)

As we can see, a coalition between Iran, Russia, and China isn't exactly much to brag about considering the aforementioned.

China also holds more US debt than any other nation and so is the largest creditor - and it does have a large leverage in that - and in its buy up of treasury bonds and in its capacity to manipulate the market as freely as it does, it does pose a layered risk that is worth respecting.

China owns 7% of all US debt outstanding. This is exactly 1% more than Japan, the next largest foreign holder of US debt. It's a double edged sword for China. They buy US debt because it's a safe investment, and because they want the American consumer to continue to prop up the Chinese export market. In fact, they almost "have to" buy US debt. It's a mutually beneficial relationship really. The US exports its inflation to China, and gets cheap market goods.

I used to be of the same position , dismissive and 'paper tiger' view, then I spoke to a Chinese businessman one day and that view changed. Seeing the long game being played a bit better since then, I understand now that most of how we perceive China is exactly how they wish to be perceived. As we plan for 10/20/30 years maybe, they plan in centuries.

I have a pretty good understanding of modern day China. It is building the worlds most unstable, unsustainable, unbalanced economy in the HISTORY of mankind. Consider this: 50-60% of Chinas current GDP is based upon fixed investment assets. This creates the illusion of growth...but what happens when those fixed investments don't turn a profit? They depreciate in value. What does this depreciation lead to 99 times out of 100? A bubble! It leads to a non-performing loan crisis. This is what central planned, Keynesian economics on steroids will get you. And it is exactly how China has built its economy.

China is teetering on the brink of total and systematic collapse. It has distorted the market place with artificial demand for far too long. The crash in commodities and will be spectacular. Countries like Australia will experience the greatest effects of this collapse...as their number 1 export market crashes, so to will the australian mining sector. This will likely cause a tumble down effect in Australia's economy. The overpriced housing market there will also likely collapse...creating a severe and deep recession in australia. As people lose their jobs in the mining sector, they will default and go into foreclosure. Watch how this thing spreads like a wild fire.

Did see this and will respond in the morning Rock, ty for your post, see the new report today? China's fiddling with the yuan again..just dumped another load of bonds...and of all groups..the EU picked it up? !! lol. mad.

Apology for not tending the thread, a friend has passed away over night and we are dealing with a few things, ty for ppl who've posted, will get back asap. - Ro

It's the West's own fault when it's all said and done.

Decades of financing China economic boom has made them a hugely powerful force in almost every area from their war machine to their economy.

The antidote is a cold trade war.

China's power lies squarely in its economic muscle, bruise that muscle and the arms aren't so easily flexible.

The West has imported China's cheap crap and making them powerful in the process, the West can survive very well without £/$/Euro stores selling Chinese rubbish, but China cannot survive as well without the massive amounts of money we pay them for that crud.

The solution is simple, and while cutting back on the tide of Chinese exports of cheap goods to the West wouldn't give China an unwarranted crippling blow, it would give them a swift and painful kick in the nuts and make their knees wobble enough to remember not to bite the hands that feed them.

reply to post by rock427


Ty for waiting Rock

China is the worlds *second largest* economy, and while yes, it is based on bubbles within bubbles , so is every other world economy too. It also owns about $1.2 trillion in debt, about 8% yes, but only third behind Social Security and I think the Fed itself. Its not exactly a 'small' worry though I agree in terms of shooting self in foot by surrendering this debt in total in some market wide whitewash, it isn't going to do that right now, what it is already doing what it will continue to do, is use this as *leverage*.

To put China's ownership of U.S. debt in perspective, its holding of $1.2 trillion is even larger than the amount owned by American households. U.S. citizens hold only about $959 billion in U.S. debt, according to the Federal Reserve.
Source

So it is that leverage, and its concurrent perceptional value, that is 'the weapon of choice' and' is worth more than any other tool in the box in any countries geopolitical language. All it has to keep doing is exactly what it is already been doing - sell off a whole bunch of bonds every now and again any time it wants to or needs to make a point about who is 'really' in control. This cat and mouse keeps the Fed alert to who they are selling to and thus, well distracted and keeps overall market suspicious, and ripe for manipulation and plucking by less visible elements. Then the foreign debt market itself shudders and tanks, the Chinese buy just enough bonds back at even more reduced rates, increasing their holding by ( as far as I can tell) 1-2 % each time they play this hand out...and voila...they come out on top...increasing debt leverage this past year from 7 to 8% in a proverbial blink.

What we have seen from other actors so far this decade market wide as relates to passive incrementalism and passive aggressive force, takes on a whole new meaning when it comes to watching China...think snail to Lamborghini differences.

Like in everything, its not what you've got..its what you do with it that matters imo....and China's playing its actual cards quite close...we see what we are welcome even invited to, even in Africa...the long game isn't visible yet, not in or outside the market.

This is why I wanted to see where they keep 'popping up' militarily as I have noticed a correlation that each time they do, they also drop a few more US bonds as emphasis of their 'point' after they do...so they make a little wiggle in the market hardly anyone notices, and everything else shudders until they disappear again...they step back in buy up big.....markets breath a quick sigh of releif and resettle and everyone sits back at the table as if nothing happened. Its mahjong for billionaires....


imo, ymmv etc...


Ro

MysterX
It's the West's own fault when it's all said and done.

Decades of financing China economic boom has made them a hugely powerful force in almost every area from their war machine to their economy.

The antidote is a cold trade war.

China's power lies squarely in its economic muscle, bruise that muscle and the arms aren't so easily flexible.

The West has imported China's cheap crap and making them powerful in the process, the West can survive very well without £/$/Euro stores selling Chinese rubbish, but China cannot survive as well without the massive amounts of money we pay them for that crud.

The solution is simple, and while cutting back on the tide of Chinese exports of cheap goods to the West wouldn't give China an unwarranted crippling blow, it would give them a swift and painful kick in the nuts and make their knees wobble enough to remember not to bite the hands that feed them.

I think historically this has been the case, not so much now. As a member of the WTO for some time now most of the 9.8% of trade (ASEAN) at least is protected under law and trade treaty so tip one domino the entire pack deflates and its global not just Chinese recession/depression. Again, here they have the upper hand in leverage. It took the bait of Globalization everyone else fell for, but China did it on its own terms.

imo ymmv etc


Ro.

Ironclad2000
reply to post by Rosha

 

A worrying development to say the least.

Indo posturing and building forces in the area and now Chinese warships.

Could it be a little more ambitious than just re-claiming East Timor... Like extending much, much further south... "Like Melbourne"....lol

All jokes aside, it is a tad disturbing.

Yeah I suddenly feel like a hamster in a biolab...

it sucks this is playing out and there is very little public can do right now..just keep pressuring our gov to accountability.

Ro

reply to post by Ironclad2000


@Rock


and then there is this... default? and the whole 'withholding' issue here and several banks also randomly withholding ATM withdrawals ' every now and again'...something isn't right.