It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
Blue Shift
draknoir2
tanka418
If we were to use the Quantum view, I can nearly prove life in at least two locations; Zeta 2 Reticuli, and Tau Ceti. I could also demonstrate a very good probability of visitation (though there is a necessary "logic" component as well).
Funny - none of my math teachers ever gave credit for "near proofs".
I want to communicate with these nearly living aliens. Ride in their 83% spaceships, maybe. I'm sure they would have a lot to teach me about what it's like to exist as a probability.
tanka418
Y'all misunderstand the nature of probability...
Or...take a look at all the light around you...it exists in one of two states; static, as a particle, existing and easily measurable in space-time. Or, as a wave, dynamic, and not easily measurable, propagating through space-time. Two possible views of the Universe; static, unchanging, vs Dynamic, ever-changing.
All things exist as a "probability wave".
Blue Shift
tanka418
Y'all misunderstand the nature of probability...
Or...take a look at all the light around you...it exists in one of two states; static, as a particle, existing and easily measurable in space-time. Or, as a wave, dynamic, and not easily measurable, propagating through space-time. Two possible views of the Universe; static, unchanging, vs Dynamic, ever-changing.
All things exist as a "probability wave".
Cognito sum ergo. And that equals a probability of 100%. As for aliens, however...edit on 3-2-2014 by Blue Shift because: (no reason given)
Blue Shift
I will agree, however, that consensus is more important than statistics. There is absolutely no hard evidence that dreams exist. If I was the only person who dreamed and I told people I had pictures play out in my head when I sleep, they'd think I was insane. But since pretty much everybody dreams, then we all pretty much agree that they exist.
waltwillis
Do you believe in God? Have you ever seen God?
Many people lack the faith of a mustard seed.
Now if your answer to the two questions is no, then that would
put you in the vast minority of the world population.
foxykittybite
reply to post by RUInsane
Everyone percieves reality a certain way. Some skeptics could see a ufo dangling in front of them and would dismiss it as a chinese lantern in the sky. Seeing the big picture is a skill.edit on 3-2-2014 by foxykittybite because: text edit.
tanka418
Two possible views of the Universe; static, unchanging, vs Dynamic, ever-changing.
All things exist as a "probability wave".
JadeStar
tanka418
Two possible views of the Universe; static, unchanging, vs Dynamic, ever-changing.
All things exist as a "probability wave".
You lost all credibility with the idea that there is any validity to a "static universe" which would fly in the face of all we've observed about it.
thedeadtruth
For me the idea is simple...
If ET did visit us. We would only find evidence if they wanted us to.
People looking for evidence are essentially trying to outsmart something / someone who is clearly superior to them.
The whole idea is an oxymoron.
ZetaRediculian : Is the next card an alien card from space? It is possible but since I know of no other alien cards from space, there is no probability that can be determined.
tanka418: Not True.
-- www.merriam-webster.com...
1: the quality or state of being probable
2: something (as an event or circumstance) that is probable
3 a (1) : the ratio of the number of outcomes(knowns) in an exhaustive set of equally likely outcomes(knowns) that produce a given event to
the total number of possible outcomes
(2) : the chance that a given event will occur
b : a branch of mathematics concerned with the study of probabilities
4: a logical relation between statements such that evidence confirming one confirms the other to some degree
Examples of PROBABILITY
There is a low probability that you will be chosen.
There is some probability of rain tomorrow.
With the dark clouds moving in, rain seems more like a probability than a possibility.
The probability of a coin coming up heads is one out of every two tries.
Probability is simply (though frequently not so simple) a statement of "likelihood". Using anything "known", while making the whole process much simpler, is not required.
Bayesian inference is a collection of statistical methods which are based on Bayes’ formula. Statistical inference is the procedure of drawing conclusions about a population or process based on a sample.
tanka418
reply to post by ZetaRediculian
Again, as I have said before; We are NOT using simple models like a deck of cards, or a coin toss, roll of dice, etc. As I have also said before, the method II use is Bayesian inference, which is almost ideally suited to discern the "unknown".
A quick note on samples: We have a rather large body of scientific knowledge to draw upon, much of it is based upon observation of nature...which is what we need for our samples. So...you see, we have plenty of sample data
ZetaRediculian
reply to post by draknoir2
thanks for the link. That was informative.
ZetaRediculian
All you have to do is give an example. In order to discern the "unknown" you need a sample of outcomes where your "unknown" has occurred. That is how Bayesian Inference works and you CAN use Bayesian on "simple models". The math does not change as the complexity of the model goes up.
draknoir2
reply to post by ZetaRediculian
I'd like to point out that the OP subject line is a reversal of BOP... "Prove that an unknown doesn't exist".
That said, the Drak Equation relies only on quantifiable knowns and yields just two possible results: "Maybe/maybe not" and "Definitely".edit on 4-2-2014 by draknoir2 because: (no reason given)
The Drak Equation:
Pv = (Nct / Nt) x 100
Where:
Pv is the probability of ET visitation in %
Nt is the number of types of intelligent species [2 - terrestrial and ET]
Nct is the number of CONFIRMED types of intelligent species on Earth [1- terrestrial or 2 - terrestrial and ET]
100% THIS
You are excellent making an incredibly important point.