New study: 50% of Black and 40% of White males arrested by age 23.

Skyfloating
reply to post by jssaylor2007

 

Im glad you can confirm from experience that there must be something off about those stats. The more I think about it, the more silly it sounds..."every second boy has been arrested"...yeah, right.

This report cites 65 million with criminal records.

The reason there is not accurate data out there is because it's not provided. Which, one would think it ought to be. 1 out of 2 has been cited as a lifetime risk in a few other studies though:

(By age 23 I'm not sure.)

Over their lifetimes, American men have a 52% chance of being arrested. Though the estimate originated in 1965 crime data, which were incomplete, subsequent inquiries have come up with consistent findings.

arrested

All the studies encountered a problem with American crime numbers: They’re based on reports from local law-enforcement agencies that may have widely different measurement and reporting standards.

…
“
The quality of the data across agencies varies dramatically,” said Alan Lizotte, interim dean of the school of criminal justice at the University at Albany. “There’s no easy, straightforward way to do this, at all,” he said of estimating the proportion of Americans who have been arrested.

Still, the 52% figure doesn’t appear too far off base, which may surprise people who don’t know anyone who’s been arrested (or don’t know they know anyone who’s been arrested). Part of the reason is that it’s a lifetime risk, and a lifetime is generally a very long time.

blogs.wsj.com...

online.wsj.com...

You can break down the numbers yourself too. 65 million criminal records where women and children make up a small %, with roughly 123 million men, even if 2/3s of the arrests are men over 18, it leaves around 40 million men out of 123 that have records.

Population: 320,000,000
Women: 160,000,000
Men: 160,000,000
Children Under 18: 73,600,000

= 246,000,000 Adults
123,000,000 Men
123,000,000 Women

I can't find statistics on female criminal records, but they do state 10% of the prison population is female. And I'm not sure if it includes the 4 million in the parole system. With 3 million incarcerated. Youth arrests are hard to calculate as well because I can't find data.

I presume the 65 records are adults though. If women and children under 18 account for even 30% of this number, it still leaves 42 million people with records which we could loosely attribute to men.

Out of a population of 123 million, you are getting very close to the 50% mark.

Mind you, I'm sure other studies are much better designed. I think if anything it might be on the low angle. But it does seem like bare minimum 1 in 3 men will end up with a criminal record. (If not higher)

The above are all lifetime statistics though, and they are convictions.

If you are talking strictly arrests:

From 2005 to 2008, there are on average 14,172,384 arrests made per year in the United States.

*

Even with recidivism, which is cited as high as 80% in some cases. * it would leave around 2.8 million new arrests each year. In ten years that's 28 million. In a persons lifespan that the number grows beyond relation to the other stats.

Because of conviction rates…

For 2011, the US Department of Justice reported a 93% conviction rate.[3] The conviction rate is also high in U.S. state courts. Coughlan writes, "In recent years, the conviction rate has averaged approximately 84% in Texas, 82% in California, 72% in New York, 67% in North Carolina, and 59% in Florida."[4]

If we lowballed an average of 70% conviction rates, 19 million new convictions every 10 years. In 50 years, 95 million.

-

That being said, they are all in the general area. Ballpark figures. +/- 20 million or so for the final tally.

If there were better data sets you could make a better case, but all the numbers are citing different years and not providing the data needed. It's almost like they don't care or don't want you to know the real statistics.

reply to post by GogoVicMorrow


So the article you linked to about IQ and hiring was circa 1996.

What I find hilarious is that you (and most other blanket cop bashers) try to use this specific case to make the police seem like they have below average IQ's, yet the study shows that the national average IQ of police officers is slightly above the national average.

Also, an above average IQ doesn't equate to street smarts or the ability to perform under pressure in tactical situations.

You really should get off your high horse and find another argument to further your cop bashing agenda.

reply to post by GogoVicMorrow


I could care less if you don't "buy" my story about cleaning up our downtown area. Probably like you could care less that I don't believe your stories about you being "harassed" by the police.

I will never change your opinion and you will never change mine. No worries.

reply to post by TorqueyThePig


I can back my story up though. You could too if it were true.
It just doesn't make much sense and it sounded a bit contrived.

reply to post by TorqueyThePig


Nope there was another case about 3 years ago.
Even if that was the only case do you think that they would stop or change these hiring practices?

I would actually say that cops have gotten much much worse since the mid 90s. I think these practices are what has led us to the situation we find ourselves in. Cops killing innocent people, raping people, and doing illegal searches and planting evidence at an ever increasing rate.

I was just reading about the wisconsin cop who got a meager two years for giving illegal cavity searches. Targeting the same people over and over and planting evidence. There was a whole bunch of cops implicated and the sergeant knew. but only 4 were charged. The worst punishment was 2 years in jail, then one got a few days in jail and the others no jail time.

The truth is on my side. I'm not even bashing cops i'm just telling it how it is.

reply to post by ExNihiloRed


You should read these articles:

Most Americans Commit Three Felonies a Day — and Here's What Happens If They Get Caught
You Commit Three Felonies a Day
HOW MANY FELONIES DID YOU COMMIT TODAY? AN INTERVIEW WITH HARVEY SILVERGLATE

All you need to do is be on the wrong side of a cop on the wrong day, or get a particularly racist prosecutor (or a corrupt one) and your whole life can be ruined.