reply to post by hounddoghowlie
First off, thanks for your response, and yes, as I will show in spades below, I am familiar with the EIA.
Your response did show that I need to be much clearer on the meaning of my term 'purchasable oil' and it will show quite clearly that I am
You can divide every country in the world into one of two groups.
One group are the net exporters of oil, and the other group are the net importers of oil.
To find the amount of what I call purchasable oil, you take the net exporters and subtract the total consumption from the total production and that
give you the total amount of oil that is available on the world market for the net importers to purchase.
There are three main databases that you can use for energy statistics. The EIA, which is the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, the IEA,
International Energy Agency out of Paris, and the BP Statistical review of World Energy. Only the BP numbers list total production and total
consumption of crude oil by country, so for this analysis I use their numbers.
The total amount of purchable oil has declined from 47,577,000 barrels per day in 2005 to 46, 724 barrels per day in 2012, the last year total global
numbers are available for.
This is exactly what Peak Oil predicted, and it happened pretty much on schedule. This is the only thing that matters in terms of Peak Oil studies,
and it neatly incorporates the more technical ideas of declining EROEI and the Export Land Model.
So, I am not wrong, I was just unclear about what 'purchasable oil' means.
What is even more disturbing, after you take into account the increased demand in just China and India, total purchasable oil for the entire rest of
the world has dropped from 42,162,000 barrels per day in 2005 to 37,541,000 barrels per day in 2012.
The entire world, outside of India and China, has 5 million barrels per day LESS oil to purchase now than we did in 2005. If you want to see the
spreadsheet for yourself, goto centurysolartracking.com and send me an email and I will send you the entire BP data and formulas that demonstrate
Your comments about IEA and EIA projections are quite meaningless, as if you go back and look at their projections from 2000, 2005 etc, they were
completely wrong about the current production. These agencies are good for producing actual statistics, but their projection history is so wrong as
to make current predictions a joke.
And no, the rest of the world will not use fracking technology as it isn't cash positive. It only works, for the very short term, in America because
America and print any amount of money and lend it to the producers. And I have shown earlier, fracking is already levelling off, and will soon go
Thanks again for the response.