Huffington Post says 47% Of All Jobs Will Be Automated By 2034

starwarsisreal
reply to post by 727Sky

 

People still need doctors and engineers to keep society running, and that requires human capital.

With the advance of globalization and more countries to bring into the fold (Think Africa and some Middle East Countries)
your fair market value as an engineer or doctor with 6 billion chasing those kind of jobs to survive will net you 10 cents an hour.

Grimpachi
So does this mean the field to train for is being the guy who designs the robots?

The designers can do their thing anywhere in the world.
With 6 Billion people chasing for that job, you get 5 cents an hour.

727Sky

On many aircraft today the onboard computer does a diagnostic and then the mechanic just replaces a box which goes to tech support for an actual fix.

That does not sound much different than the McDondalds Jobs where they just push buttons and have a machine do all the work.
You get 2 cents an hour.

A great little video that someday ?

Funny enough, the Huff made a big Faux Pas just a while ago as I attempted to sign in there to make a post. I made a mistake in using a password along with my e-mail for the Huff, when in fact I should have used E-mail and user name, and not the password which is in fact my default AOL password for logging in. However, my user name for the Huff, is showing correctly on the Huff website, which is only for that website but my post was not allowed due to an error, given as 'not verified'
What it means is that The Huff was able to extrapolate my AOL e-mail + log-in password, as being the same as their e-mail + user name is one and the same, even though the password and user names between the two entities are different. The 'error' produced has to be something in the software used that is/was unexpected. The thing is, it has to mean something like a logging system that attaches to your e-mail where ever it is used regardless of passwords or user names. I'm not being off topic, but this is a need to know episode for perspective.

Terrible news for everyone. 47% loss of the total amount of jobs in the world is a lot of jobs. Not looking forward to the next twenty years and later.

edit to add I'm really glad I don't live in China, what would suck.

At first I was going to suggest something like being a plumber who makes emergency house calls, then had the horrible vision of an automated Google self driving van pulling up and some spidery robot climbing out of the back with it's plumbing tools. Yeck!

Custom robotic software designer, maybe unless the robots do that too.

Sheesh, just wait until some robot says "Human you are obsolete!"

reply to post by 727Sky


www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.scribd.com...

2025
One of the most important extensions to the police use of robots in this period will be advanced biometric ID checks such as face, retina and fingerprint recognition.These facilities will greatly extend the surveillance potential of the robots and make their use considerably more widespread They will be able to determine the identity of individuals in seconds through direct link with police computers. Wheeled humanoid police robots with more semi-autonomous operation will be in use on the streets.Many robots could sit passively in areas in town centres or areas known for crime.They could monitor any sudden scene changes like the appearance of a group or a crowd and use audio and vision systems to determine whether they are a group of harmless drunks or are potentially dangerous. Audio levels and speech perception would be used to tell if there was aggressive shouting and swearing and vision systems could watch for human contact or standoffs.Robots will alert a human operator to survey the scene and advise. The robot could be remote controlled to approach the situation and enable the operator to ask questions, check IDs and assess the situation. Robot backup could be sent in with aerial vehicles and more ground robots

2025
One of the most important extensions to the police use of robots in this period will be advanced biometric ID checks such as face, retina and fingerprint recognition.These facilities will greatly extend the surveillance potential of the robots and maketheir use considerably more widespread They will be able to determine the identity of individuals in seconds through direct link with police computers. Wheeled humanoid police robots with more semi-autonomous operation will be in use on the streets.Many robots could sit passively in areas in town centers or areas known for crime.They could monitor any sudden scene changes like the appearance of a group or a crowd and use audio and vision systems to determine whether they are a group of harmless drunks or are potentially dangerous. Audio levels and speech perception would be used to tell if there was aggressive shouting and swearing and vision systems could watch for human contact or standoffs.Robots will alert a human operator to survey the scene and advise. The robot could be remote controlled to approach the situation and enable the operator to ask questions, check IDs and assess the situation. Robot backup could be sent in with aerial vehicles and more ground robots.
2040
There will be much more autonomous functioning to reduce costs and free police officers for more human tasks. Humanoid walking robots would be more in use for crowd control at games, strikes and riots. Robots will patrol city centers and trouble spots where fights are likely to break out.Robots will have reasonable speech perception and be able to ask questions and respond to answers.
What is your ID number?

What are you doing here? Move along !
. They may work in teams of tracked robots with non-lethal weapons (e.g. Tasers or nets) and be on call for diffusing difficult situations and arresting people.Powerful soft bodied robots will be developed that can restrain people without danger of hurting them. These could then be used as robot bouncers and security guards at nightclubs. There could also be radio tickets so robots can tell if humans have tickets and eject or detain those without. Robots will be able to spray a crowd with RFID tag darts or some futuristic equivalent so that people can be tracked after the crowd has been dispersed. They will always have a human operator on call to assist with ambiguities and to give instructions about the use of physical force.
2055
There will be more extensive use of robots with facial expressions and body gestures for dealing with people and diffusing difficult situations. The aim of these will be to build up human trust and confidence in the machine. Public acceptance will be required to legislate for more extensive robot application. such as autonomous robot traffic wardens. There will be absolutely no point in arguing with a robot traffic warden. One big development in this period, with the greatest impact on personal liberty and privacy, will be the use of It makes Extended Sensing by robots. Robots, unlike animals, are not limited to sensing within the confines of their own bodies. no difference to a robot if its sensors and cameras are attached to its head to its feet or on the wall next to it. The control systems for factory robots and soccer robots often operate with cameras on the ceiling looking down on robot and environment to plan movements. A ground robot could have camera eyes and sensing flying overhead onmicro-helicopters without any difficulty. In the same way, robots connected into a network of surveillance cameras are no different than a robot with multiple distributed eyes. Thus a single robot would be able to track an individual’s movements throughout a city.

When you think about all sensing assets being in communication with each other and relaying communication it really will be something to behold.. If a robot cop is talking to you his eyes will be everywhere with all the cameras that are planned on being installed with instant playback of any of your past or current actions...

I personally have seen crimes solved because of security cameras and we have all seen on the news or youtube some bad guy busted because he was unaware he was being filmed... Thats a good thing... Maybe a robot cop due to lack of emotions will stop some of the abuse we see/hear about... or maybe not... ?

It would appear no segment of society will have total job security.... But again I feel certain it will not happen in my lifetime.

When I was a kid flying cars and atomic power space ships were just on the horizon and would be available to the masses.. Futurist have a way of missing the mark by centuries.

Fusion power was to be a reality and a cure for cancer would be had...just donate more money .. True we have some flying cars, atomic space ships were tried and discarded for atmospheric endeavors...It is always another 20 or 50 years before fusion power will be available and people are still dying from all kinds of cancer... Maybe some of this stuff is not as off the shelf ready as other would have you to believe...

One day if we do not destroy ourselves then no doubt maybe Sara Conner's writer may be declared a visionary much like Jules Vern; some will see, just not me.

I wouldn't want a robot dentist. Don't even like the human version

beezzer
reply to post by 727Sky

 

I guess the job to have is someone who fixes the robots!

*coin!*

I hear this a lot as a rebuttal to mass automation in the workplace replacing living workers, BUT it misses a subtle point that ONLY the children of the wealthy will have the opportunity to become TRUE experts in this field. Let me clarify, through the 21st century a poor kid who studies hard can become a lawyer, accountant, even a doctor sometimes with the right combination of hard work, savings, scholarships etc. HOWEVER, in engineering curriculum's times are changing to favor kids who have access to expensive software and hardware to "experiment" and "practice" on before entering college AND when they finally get to college, those who have lots of free time to "play" with robotics and programming outside of class WILL CERTAINLY outpace their less privileged peer who flips burgers part-time to pay rent. We should all ask ourselves, would companies prefer to hire low experienced graduates whom have demonstrated non-professional robotics experience in a "hobby portfolio" OR the low experienced graduate who worked hard to graduate with a difficult major, but didn't have as much free time to develop skills specifically related to their major and have a long list of totally unrelated work experience? I'm seeing this already happening in many different engineering fields where the young workers being hired today are from wealthy families and great colleges, while at the same time being trained by older folks whom were not as privileged in their youth, but got through school the hard way and were trained on the job, while paid over long periods of time.

Here is an example of what I believe to be a young person from a well off family who majored in robotics at USC, doesn't appear to have had a part time job while in college, had lots of time to "experiment" with the technology in her spare time, got a masters degree back to back to the bachelors AND at the end of the day got a job offer at a University sponsored dinner party for robotics majors. NOBODY I went to college with EVER got a job offer at a university sponsored dinner party. My point being, these future "robotics repair" jobs are going to require smart kids, that went to good schools, had lots of spare time and money to play with the tech outside of school AND get their jobs offered at dinner parties, not through sending blind jobs applications. Basically what this girl is doing for Disney will in the near future be like what a plumber or electrician of today does, EXCEPT you won't get trained on the job when at "entry level" and to even be considered for the job in the first place you need to have good academic pedigree. Here is her story:

onedublin.org...

The 47% whom are going to be rendered jobless by automation are going to be the least likely to be able to pick up these pieces of post job destruction, going back to school, getting a masters degree in robotics, in full-time only engineering programs that strongly discourage their students from taking part-time jobs and favor students who have both the money and time, NOT WORKING at an unrelated job, to buy robtics hardware/software to experiment with outside of class.

Mark my words this future of "maintaining robots" is going to be the sole domain of rich kids with advanced degrees from good schools because NO ONE is going to train anyone else perceived as lesser on the job WITH PAY.

Qi Maker
you know why this scares a lot of people? because they have no sense of identity or purpose outside of their job. they've never had or taken the time to connect with their true self and therefore don't even know who they really are. they can't really conceive of anything outside of their compartmental routine within the system.

when this 'new' world really starts to take shape, they will either evolve and adapt, or they will go crazy.

edit on 19-1-2014 by Qi Maker because: (no reason given)

edit on 19-1-2014 by Qi Maker because: (no reason given)

edit on 19-1-2014 by Qi Maker because: (no reason given)

I don't think that is why this scares people. It's not a sense of identity exactly; it goes further than that. It is a sense of purpose, even a need for purpose. Right now, there is still a need for human labor but if/when 47% of the human population becomes not only unnecessary but literally part of an burdensome cadre of "useless eaters" life will get very cheap within the social psychology.

The first thing that comes to mind for me is the Georgia Guidestones. While I usually discard a cognizant and systematic plan to eliminate large parts of the human population; if large parts of that human population are of no value then why wouldn't those in power work to be rid of them/us?

Well we know what will happen more or less. It has happened to other countries on a smaller scale.

From the late 60s through the early 80s, Germany allowed the immigration of a lot of Turks to supplement their low skilled labor force. Due to Germany's stringent citizenship requirements, most are just permanent residents, even today. Being born in Germany does not make you a citizen, or at least it didn't I don't know about now. Germany went through a large automatization, and much of the unskilled labor was taken over by robotics. So basically you have a large undereducated population that never realy integrated or assimilated living in self imposed ghettos and high unemployment. Since the majority now claim state benefits, you have a rather large and demographically disproportionate burden on the state coffers with little to show for it.

How much do you wanna bet our politicians aren't exactly historians or economists and a very similar thing will happen here in the US?

reply to post by redhorse


read my quote a bit more carefully.

redhorse
I don't think that is why this scares people. It's not a sense of identity exactly; it goes further than that. It is a sense of purpose, even a need for purpose. Right now, there is still a need for human labor but if/when 47% of the human population becomes not only unnecessary but literally part of an burdensome cadre of "useless eaters" life will get very cheap within the social psychology.

I agree with this, a sense of purpose drives most people throughout life. However, that sense of purpose is going to have to reckon with a drastic shift in what is considered a purpose. Frankly, I don't think this factory/workforce automation is going to be the death knell of humanity just yet. What I think is going to happen is this: Farmers. Artisans. The various sciences robots can't hack it in place of a human in. We'll branch out from the current straight up consumerism and probably render the robotic workforce worthless within a few generations (social change takes time) They'll be worthless because they'll be slapping together the goods we've lost interest in or cut back substantially on due to having been forced to live on less income (if any at all) Not to say we'll never buy another TV, cell phone or computer again, but I think households will revert back to having just one (or even none) of them, and for many years at a time instead of a new one every year.

Honestly, I think the future jobs markets are going to be dominated by renewed agricultural interest, and a stronger dedication to science all around (medicine, astronomy, physics, biology, you name it) We'll always have a desire for a purpose in life, and we're creative as hell. Barter systems could become dominant for all we know (you fix X for me, I'll make Y or Z for you) or part barter/part money. We'll figure it out, it takes longer than just a few sh***y years economically for that kind of shift to happen. We're used to the way we live, but we weren't always like this. Things changed, and we adapted. We'll adapt again.

It'd be bumpy & rough, but I think once the social kinks are ironed out, we'll see it as a mere hurdle in our societal evolution.

Qi Maker
reply to post by redhorse

 

read my quote a bit more carefully.

It seems as if you are saying people will go crazy with out their jobs as a sense of identity. I am saying that on a fundamental level (and with some justification) they fear for their very lives. Those with authority and power will have no reason to encourage a society that values life if there are too many people to support that are not contributing to that society in a way that is meaningful for the elite. It's not that people will just "go crazy" because they have lost their identity in some abstract way, although that will likely be how many individuals will interpret it. Society will become more brutal because there will simply be more people than are necessary to support itself. Kill off some, or watch the whole collapse in a way that is unpredictable.

Qi Maker

WhiteAlice
reply to post by Qi Maker

 

I disagree. I think that the concept of having a job equaling having a roof over one's head, being able to feed and clothe oneself and one's dependent loved ones and providing even at a basic level outside of all the fancy bells and whistles are something that just about everybody can comprehend and fearing the obsolescence of 47% of previously human filled jobs is pretty darn rational. If your job becomes obsolete, then what will you do? How will you feed, shelter and clothe yourself, let alone your loved ones? And as the number of jobs decline to that 47%, what then? People absolutely should fear it and not because they define themselves by their jobs. They need to fear it because they need to make sure that they or their children are going to be able to work as to provide themselves with their basic needs.

Are we all going to become hair dressers because that's one of the very few jobs where automation probably won't work (pretty terrifying to imagine a robot in charge of your do). Ironic really that automation could drive us to become a bunch of monkeys sitting around and grooming each others' hair again.

the idea is that we should reach the point where basic needs are met through the development of sustainable systems. food, shelter, and clothing would be natural rights.

Not sure about you but the country that I'm living in has been flipping out about a "Communist" take over because of the Affordable Care Act and accusations of "nanny state" and anger about welfare programs. The thing about the US is that we have long had the idea of "you pull yourself up by you own bootstraps" firmly embedded within our national ideology. Perhaps by 2034, we will have reached a point of such collective desperation as to push this but, even then, it'll still only be this estimated 47%. The majority will still be the job holders. How does one change a deeply ingrained ideology to avert what could become desperation and chaos?

redhorse
It seems as if you are saying people will go crazy with out their jobs as a sense of identity. I am saying that on a fundamental level (and with some justification) they fear for their very lives. Those with authority and power will have no reason to encourage a society that values life if there are too many people to support that are not contributing to that society in a way that is meaningful for the elite. It's not that people will just "go crazy" because they have lost their identity in some abstract way, although that will likely be how many individuals will interpret it. Society will become more brutal because there will simply be more people than are necessary to support itself. Kill off some, or watch the whole collapse in a way that is unpredictable.

This is the most realistic post here so far, quite spot on in fact!

Nyiah
They'll be worthless because they'll be slapping together the goods we've lost interest in or cut back substantially on due to having been forced to live on less income (if any at all) Not to say we'll never buy another TV, cell phone or computer again, but I think households will revert back to having just one (or even none) of them, and for many years at a time instead of a new one every year.

I agree, but knowing how big government and big corporations currently collude together, they will simply make purchases mandatory by law somehow or design the consumer tech like ink cartridges which stop working well before they are actually empty and then put rule of law in place to make tinkering with said consumer tech illegal with "click"wraps". With the big kicker being that it will all be enforced by the kind of soulless robots that were portrayed in Elysium. All logic, all zero tolerance, with a smattering of robotic analysis of a perps "implied" intentions. Just like when hurting a police canine is seen by law as hurting a law enforcement officer, thn same will be the law for the "Elysium" enforcer robots.

Nyiah
Barter systems could become dominant for all we know (you fix X for me, I'll make Y or Z for you) or part barter/part money. We'll figure it out, it takes longer than just a few sh***y years economically for that kind of shift to happen. We're used to the way we live, but we weren't always like this. Things changed, and we adapted. We'll adapt again.

It'd be bumpy & rough, but I think once the social kinks are ironed out, we'll see it as a mere hurdle in our societal evolution.

24/7 drones/robots/cameras are going to watch for "bartering" outside of the currency/tax system. They will simply label bartering as possibly supporting terrorist activity, the same thing they are doing with Bitcoins right now. The robots will make some rich, others even richer and leaving the remaining even poorer than they are today. I wish we were simply facing what the original Luddites were facing, like the Cotton Gin, etc, robots will be 1000 times worse for those without means.

boohoo

beezzer
reply to post by 727Sky

 

I guess the job to have is someone who fixes the robots!

*coin!*

I hear this a lot as a rebuttal to mass automation in the workplace replacing living workers, BUT it misses a subtle point that ONLY the children of the wealthy will have the opportunity to become TRUE experts in this field. Let me clarify, through the 21st century a poor kid who studies hard can become a lawyer, accountant, even a doctor sometimes with the right combination of hard work, savings, scholarships etc. HOWEVER, in engineering curriculum's times are changing to favor kids who have access to expensive software and hardware to "experiment" and "practice" on before entering college AND when they finally get to college, those who have lots of free time to "play" with robotics and programming outside of class WILL CERTAINLY outpace their less privileged peer who flips burgers part-time to pay rent. We should all ask ourselves, would companies prefer to hire low experienced graduates whom have demonstrated non-professional robotics experience in a "hobby portfolio" OR the low experienced graduate who worked hard to graduate with a difficult major, but didn't have as much free time to develop skills specifically related to their major and have a long list of totally unrelated work experience? I'm seeing this already happening in many different engineering fields where the young workers being hired today are from wealthy families and great colleges, while at the same time being trained by older folks whom were not as privileged in their youth, but got through school the hard way and were trained on the job, while paid over long periods of time.

Here is an example of what I believe to be a young person from a well off family who majored in robotics at USC, doesn't appear to have had a part time job while in college, had lots of time to "experiment" with the technology in her spare time, got a masters degree back to back to the bachelors AND at the end of the day got a job offer at a University sponsored dinner party for robotics majors. NOBODY I went to college with EVER got a job offer at a university sponsored dinner party. My point being, these future "robotics repair" jobs are going to require smart kids, that went to good schools, had lots of spare time and money to play with the tech outside of school AND get their jobs offered at dinner parties, not through sending blind jobs applications. Basically what this girl is doing for Disney will in the near future be like what a plumber or electrician of today does, EXCEPT you won't get trained on the job when at "entry level" and to even be considered for the job in the first place you need to have good academic pedigree. Here is her story:

onedublin.org...

The 47% whom are going to be rendered jobless by automation are going to be the least likely to be able to pick up these pieces of post job destruction, going back to school, getting a masters degree in robotics, in full-time only engineering programs that strongly discourage their students from taking part-time jobs and favor students who have both the money and time, NOT WORKING at an unrelated job, to buy robtics hardware/software to experiment with outside of class.

Mark my words this future of "maintaining robots" is going to be the sole domain of rich kids with advanced degrees from good schools because NO ONE is going to train anyone else perceived as lesser on the job WITH PAY.

edit on 20-1-2014 by boohoo because: (no reason given)

edit on 20-1-2014 by boohoo because: (no reason given)

I hope many here have the experience in the workforce to see just how dead right I am about the above.

reply to post by Nyiah


I like your version better. I hope you are right. I fear you are not. I see many, many signs that those in power are learning, teaching and encouraging misanthropy and a general contempt for the human race. I think that this is a reactionary response to that sense that we are hitting a tipping point in the capacity of the human race to support itself with the resources available. A bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point. It is easier to kill off others than to find a thoughtful, dynamic solution that will sustain everyone. We have the capacity for the latter and a tendency for the first. I fear the path of least resistance may win out here.

reply to post by redhorse


in your original retort, you said it wasn't just about identity, it was also about purpose.

in the post you quoted of mine i had that covered. i said that this transition scares people because they have no sense of identity or purpose outside of their compartmental routine within the system.

anyway, moving on...

you 'fear' you say? it is this exact fear that limits your mind from being able to comprehended how this could pan out differently, and in a very positive way for humanity. we shape our own destiny.

I am attending CSUF obtaining my BA in economics and I have been saying this for years now.

I think I may have a solution though

Politicians will need to ( I know scary reliance there) pass a society integration bill. This bill will tax companies according to the level of automation within the business!!!! think about it!

If a company is fully automated then a 100% tax on the company would be given this would help the government pay for food stamps and welfare in general.

And if the company had 0 automation then it wouldnt get taxed AT ALL allowing the company to pay for the workers and stay competitive.

THERE YOU GO EARTH I JUST FIXED YOUR AUTOMATION PROBLEM