Will We Be Forced To Flee From Major Population Centers ?

I was going to post this in the religious forum but it's shut down.
But it may be just common sense for anybody that wants to survive what is coming after the economic collapse.
In the past a calamity linking the destruction of Jerusalem circa 70 AD, to our time required the Christians to leave the city to survive. Regardless nonbelievers at ATS can see the what is coming from a purely secular viewpoint without any faith at all.
And I recall that many non-isrealites fled with the Jews leaving Egypt, realizing after 10 devastating plagues something wasn't right.

This video is essentially saying the same for ever major population center.
But the top 5 NOT to be in are:

1) Israel
2) London
3) Southern California (example LA)
4) New York City
5) Any Major City



My personal belief is that at some point we going to have to get out of Dodge(Cities) to survive.

reply to post by Blue_Jay33


How far from the city will you have to flee to be safe...

Sooner or later a threat will come along..

Most likely mob rule mentality people that only care about self-preservation so you will be out numbered to start with...
Think Zombie apocalypse but they will not be dead physically just mentally(without reasoning).

NO where is safe once it happens..everyone will be running for land that still has trees and wild life in it..with 7 billion people out there everywhere I wish us all the luck..

In this scenerio, normal rational people will become unglued relating to their enviornment. Unreasonable people will be homicidal early on in the event. eventually survival will be easier for the prepared and a high percentage of the prepared do not live in large cities. Once local resources deplete, survivors will branch out to the suburbs and beyond where the prepared and armed will be protecting their family, land and goods. I am one of the prepared, I believe dark moments are ahead, and I have set up to stage 12 of my plan and looked at history relating to people and situations, therefore I armed myself to the teeth...so yes, the more people, the less chance for any long term sustainability.

reply to post by Blue_Jay33


I will be at my house, nobody is "running me out of town".....If you feel like coming to rob me, good luck. I will be staying put no matter the disaster or event.....Why people worry so much about living alone in a shelter? What kind of joy in life is that?

We only have about sixty seven thousand people in the whole county here. I don't think I need to flee the cities. I hope they still keep a few of the restaurants open for coffee if the SHTF. We need a place to talk about the situation over coffee when something that interesting happens.

reply to post by teslahowitzer


Your ammo will only last so long...your food and water will only last so long

What are your fall back plans once that happens..

Or do you think you have enough ammo to take on everyone from all cities within 200 miles of your location and enough food and water to last years..

Eventually you will have to leave your cozy confines to get more supplies and that is when karma will come back and bite you in the ass..

reply to post by teslahowitzer

Unreasonable people will be homicidal early on in the event. eventually survival will be easier for the prepared and a high percentage of the prepared do not live in large cities.

People with guns may survive longer, but those in a mob of let's say three hundred with no guns attack a couple with guns even autos, won't make it either as the first few in would be used as shields once shot, then they would be overwhelmed or run out of bullets, when 300 are attacking in close proximity at a fast rate you have to change mags at some point. Or pull another gun, this isn't like the movies. I think some survivalists put too much faith in their guns, 1 on 6 sure but not a massive crazy mob in a city.

reply to post by Blue_Jay33


How far would a mob get once the gas is gone? One has to remember that a mob isn't that clever.

reply to post by Blue_Jay33


Biblically, the Abomination of the Desolation - Matthew 24:10-20 will give you some idea about the biblical reference. It is also spoken about in Daniel. It sounds like something on the ground because of the mention of being on the roof and not going down into the house, but for how long and what it is, there is no clear reference.

Even in the days of Jesus, there were such things as demons/spirits and yet this does not reference them, so unsure how to comprehend what this is. It also references the Middle East, but does that mean every country also or just the Middle East?

Some of the end time prophecy is going to take place only in the Middle East / Jerusalem, etc., but other parts will affect the whole earth - 1/3 of the earth will be affected by fire, 1/3 by flood and the other 1/3 by famine. Wormwood is to strike the earth and turn the waters bitter. And something like a huge mountain is to fall into the water and turn 1/3 of the waters to blood - Revelation 8.

TruthSeekerKnight
reply to post by teslahowitzer

 

Your ammo will only last so long...your food and water will only last so long

What are your fall back plans once that happens..

Or do you think you have enough ammo to take on everyone from all cities within 200 miles of your location and enough food and water to last years..

Eventually you will have to leave your cozy confines to get more supplies and that is when karma will come back and bite you in the ass..

Very true! People can learn to cast and reload bullets, and even make their own gunpowder...but does anyone know how to make a primer?

This is why I think guns won't be a long-term option in a post-apocalyptic world. Bows/crossbows might be a more reliable long term solution for ranged weaponry.

We bugged out three years ago. The nearest town with over 100K people in it is 100 miles away. I feel safe out here, we are loosely knit in this area but will band together tightly when the time comes. It has already been discussed.

However, I have kids who live on the west coast, and that is very disturbing to me. I cannot convince them to leave the beach areas of Southern California. I cannot even convince them to prepare with extra water and food. They imagine they'll just hop in their cars and drive the 1200 miles out here to safety.

No matter what the event, anything that causes the grid to come down (and stay down), will necessitate leaving any major population center. The main reason is gangs. These would form within a couple of weeks after the disaster, and these groups would do anything to obtain supplies for their members. They will arm, raid, and eventually (once using up resources in an urban center), will start roaming the countryside. (but likely still following roads and looking for smaller settlements...bigger bang for the buck).

If in a city, you basically will have two choices. Join a gang, or be one of their victims. It's possible some communities could arm up and simply pose too much trouble to bother with, but not very likely.

reply to post by MystikMushroom

Very true! People can learn to cast and reload bullets, and even make their own gunpowder...but does anyone know how to make a primer? This is why I think guns won't be a long-term option in a post-apocalyptic world.Bows/crossbows might be a more reliable long term solution for ranged weaponry.

I have no doubt in my mind people will adapt their weapons with flintlocks in no time. by the other hand the strings and cables from a bow will rot in no time and there are not going to be factories to replace the kevlar.

I'm happy to know 90% of the people will die and i among them wont have to deal with lord humungus in the post apocalyptic wasteland.

thinking about it, a boomerang could be a good choice too

FissionSurplus
We bugged out three years ago. The nearest town with over 100K people in it is 100 miles away. I feel safe out here, we are loosely knit in this area but will band together tightly when the time comes. It has already been discussed.

However, I have kids who live on the west coast, and that is very disturbing to me. I cannot convince them to leave the beach areas of Southern California. I cannot even convince them to prepare with extra water and food. They imagine they'll just hop in their cars and drive the 1200 miles out here to safety.

being here on the west coast I completely get your angst. our kids go to college very nearby our small town so re-group planning is easy. I hope you stress they at least have the directions home memorized or written down since you haven't lived there long. So many rely on google or map quest these days they will be handicapped when there is no cell signal.

Oh and I agree with Gaz. The roaming hoardes will be the real threat after a few days.

Depending on how long they wait to flee, I think showing up in rural places would make the locals see it as a threat to their resources and they would probably attack the transplants. I think it would be a crazy scenario no matter where anyone is. I think the movie 'The Road' had some things in it that would probably happen; Like the cannibals wandering the roads looking for people to eat. Of course, that would be around the 5th year or so, maybe sooner. There would be opportunists everywhere. Just coming up on a house could end in your death because people would see it as a threat.

I would like to make a TV show about a scenario like this. It would blow The Walking Dead outta the water.

Here is the sad part most likely even generally good people won't help you if you bug out alone. This scene from The Walking Dead is sadly most likely true. The bad guys kill you outright, the good guys just leave you to fend on your own.
On the way back they see him dead on the side of the road and take his supplies.

reply to post by Blue_Jay33


Dang it! I haven't watched that episode yet. Anyway, leaving major population centers seems to be a very popular idea. Most of the people that will flee have little to no survival skills and will end up lost, dehydrated, and very quickly dead. As some have already said, guns and ammo will last only so long. Bows and arrows can be made out of good sturdy wood, if you know how to do it. The ability to start a fire without matches or a lighter will be an invaluable skill to have especially if it happens in winter. Many plan to hunt or fish for their food, and that will only go so far in my neck of the woods. There simply ins't enough wildlife to go around. There are plenty of insects though, as well as mice, small lizards, and snakes. Basically what I am saying is there will be no safe or ideal place to go. People will need to rely on their wit and skill instead of prime location to survive.

reply to post by borracho

Dang it! I haven't watched that episode yet.

You are really behind in the series then.

There is another scene from a movie where 4 "normal" people run into each other after the collapse, 2 want help and the others don't want to give it, both have guns, the outcome is very sad. It's two women in a car verses, 2 on the road, I can't find the movie clip.

That scene from The Walking Dead (hitchhiker)...yeah...sad but true. Personally though, I'm willing to try someone out, but only while watching them like a hawk (and definitely making sure they are disarmed, and secured/guarded while we sleep, etc.) until they prove their value and loyalty to the group.

Numbers are the only counter to the threat of armed gangs, and no doubt about it, in any SHTF scenario, this would be the number one challenge after just basic survival (food and water). The good news is, it will cost a gang resources (fuel, supplies they can carry, etc.) to go outside of the cities, so can't see them doing that for quite some time. And even then, it would likely be focused on outlaying suburbs with businesses. They simply won't want to burn the fuel to go roaming around the countryside...to much investment for an uncertain payoff.

The real dangers to rural folks will be the oddball militaristic groups with a smart leader. Such a group would likely travel only on foot (or horseback), and constantly raid small targets. The good news is that they probably would skip a well fortified and armed group, as too much risk.

reply to post by MystikMushroom

but does anyone know how to make a primer?

yes I do

but would I want to [ in a survival situation ] - no