Earthquake-Tsunami Hazard in Caribbean Higher Than Previously Thought: USGS

Considering the recent 6.4 earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench, and all its associated aftershocks- I figured I'd post up some real scientific doom porn for those afflicted with the disease.

Less than a month ago on Dec. 20, 2013, a USGS report came out suspecting there to be enough stress built up in the eastern Caribbean to potentially create a massive quake and tsunami, which could potentially affect the southeastern US coast:

www.usgs.gov...

Enough strain may be currently stored in an earthquake zone near the island of Guadeloupe to cause a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake and subsequent tsunami in the Caribbean, according to a new U.S. Geological Survey study.

USGS and French researchers studying the plate boundary in the Lesser Antilles region—the area where 20 of the 26 Caribbean islands are located—estimate that enough unreleased strain may have accumulated offshore of Guadeloupe to potentially create a magnitude 8.0-8.4 earthquake. A magnitude 7.5-8.5 quake in 1843 killed several thousand people in Guadeloupe, and a similar quake in the future could cause several tens to several hundreds of fatalities, and hundreds of millions to billions of U.S. dollars in damages. The paper was recently published in the Geophysical Journal International.

"Perception that a mega quake can occur in the Caribbean is low because none have been observed over the past century, and the rate at which the tectonic plates converge is fairly slow," said USGS scientist Gavin Hayes, lead author of the paper. "Nevertheless, we show that enough unreleased strain may have accumulated on the subduction zone since the 19th century to generate a mega quake in the future."

More at article.

And it is precisely a quake like the 6.4 that just happened that could trigger such a monster- even though this time it hasn't- yet. But remember stress loading and redistribution. When stress is released from a quake, it causes loading of new stresses close by. So we may have not seen the end of this yet. But the zone they are talking about is farther to the east in the Caribbean, so let's hope it is far enough away to prevent that any time soon.

But regardless, the area seems ripe for a bigger quake- since one hasn't happened in a while. In subduction zones and on intraplates, big quakes can occur within just five to ten years of each other. Just look at Chile, Sumatra, or even the New Madrid quakes of 1811-12 for examples of that. Sometimes it just takes one to start the stress loading and subsequent triggering. And sometimes increases in smaller seismicity can be indicators of impeding- -- --- doom.

I have been pointing out the constant swarm above Puerto Rico for quite a while now in various posts. Some wrote it off, as usual. But that 6.4 DID materialize, right near it. Let's just hope that is all. Not if, just when.

Ooo..now that would be nasty...Florida would get destroyed if a tsunami came in there.

Seems like there are more reports lately, or at least more posts, about stress building in different areas. I was just reading your other one on the area close to Tokyo.

Vasa Croe
Florida would get destroyed if a tsunami came in there.

Well that might be a little too over the top. In the worst case of a mag 8+ hitting the Caribbean, a tsunami might get maybe 20 feet tall near the source- but by the time it reached Florida- it would likely dissipate to only some 2 to 3 feet tall. I mean ok, maybe 5 feet tops- unless the quake happened like right on the subduction zone at the northern tip of Haiti or Maybe southern Cuba. Then Florida could see some bigger waves.

The bigger danger is to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. I mean it could literally be 2004 all over again- except in our neck of the woods.

reply to post by Vasa Croe


That would really suck.

I'm in Miami and a tsunami would totally wreck my house.

A big enough tsunami would affect most of the eastern coast.

reply to post by grey580


A Miami tsunami would also affect the Turkey Point nuclear power plant, the St. Lucie nuke plant is also at risk. A 10' wave/surge would be catastrophic to the barrier islands that surround Florida.

jrod
reply to post by grey580

 

A Miami tsunami would also affect the Turkey Point nuclear power plant, the St. Lucie nuke plant is also at risk. A 10' wave/surge would be catastrophic to the barrier islands that surround Florida.

edit on 17-1-2014 by jrod because: cleanup

Not only that but all the other coal power producing plants in florida.

Which btw provides energy in the winter to states up north.

It's interesting to know that most of the plants that run on oil or natural gas are turned off in the winter months up north.
And that FPL uses it's coal plants to send power north.

This is done so that the price doesn't rise on heating oil or natural gas for heating peoples homes.

Imagine if people couldn't afford oil to heat their homes during the polar vortex. It would be a national disaster.