H7N9 has mutated, may spread from human to human: expert

Yesterday's CIDRAP report said there have been 201 cases in H7N9's second wave - well above the 136 people who were sickened in the first wave after H7N9 first emerged last spring. And - "The new cases boost the outbreak total to 337, according to a running tally of H7N9 cases kept by FluTrackers. The two fatalities lift the unofficial death count to 71."

Today, Shangai Daily reports:
* At least 31 people died from H7N9 bird flu in China this year
* A total of 127 human H7N9 cases confirmed this year
* "The number is almost as high as for the whole of last year, when China had 144 confirmed cases, including 46 deaths."

New warning as H7N9 bird flu toll hits 31 for 2014

February 11, 2014, Tuesday

At least 31 people died from H7N9 bird flu in China this year, the government announced yesterday, while health experts predicted more H7N9 cases in the near future.

A total of 127 human H7N9 cases have been confirmed so far this year, with Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces the worst affected, according to a statement by the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

The number is almost as high as for the whole of last year, when China had 144 confirmed cases, including 46 deaths.

The commission said that there will continue to be sporadic reports of H7N9 infections.

Still no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission but H7N9 has now incorporated genetic material from H9N2, and 3 new H7N9 strains appeared this winter - which may explain the current H7N9 outbreak in Guangdong province. Live poultry markets are closed in Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong Province,for two weeks. Hangzhou, capital of Zhejiang Province, will permanently stop live poultry trade in the city proper. Shanghai's markets are closed for 3 months; Hong Kong stopped live poultry and imports from mainland China in January. Flutrackers reports: H7N9 has infected about 350 people in total, killing more than 70; 178 were infected with H7N9 this year, 19 more than in 2013.

Study: Bird flu risk stoked by gene changes

Three new variations of the avian influenza type-A H7N9 virus have been found this winter.

The genetic changes were spurred by transmission in poultry and the incorporation of genetic material from another strain called H9N2, scientists at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and Institutes of Biomedical Sciences said.

The new strains may be behind a surge of infections in Guangdong, the southern province bordering Hong Kong.

…Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces and the Shanghai metropolitan area have been the worst affected regions, the scientists wrote in a paper published in Eurosurveillance Thursday.

“The rapidly increasing number of cases of A(H7N9) virus infection in these three regions may raise concerns as to whether there is an association between circulation of the new A(H7N9) reassortment strains identified and accelerated transmission of A(H7N9) virus in humans,” the scientists said. “It is of the utmost importance to monitor the risk of a potential pandemic initiated by various influenza virus strains.”

Even though H7N9 hasn’t mutated to become as contagious as seasonal flu, strains that emerge in China are of special interest to researchers.

Chinese City Closes Poultry Markets To Stop Bird Flu Outbreak

Live poultry markets were closed for two weeks on Saturday in the capital of Guangdong province, Guangzhou, China, following an outbreak of H7N9 bird flu virus.

The provincial health bureau reported 65 cases and 13 deaths, with the last victim of the virus being a 78-year-old man who died Feb. 14 in Guangzhou. Most cases have been linked to contact with poultry. The province is one of the hardest-hit areas in China’s latest bird flu outbreak.

China Focus: China reports new H7N9 cases, cities ban poultry trading

HEFEI, Feb. 15 (Xinhua) -- Chinese cities have stepped up control of the live poultry trade as the number of human H7N9 bird flu infections continues to rise.

On Saturday, Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong Province, banned all live poultry markets for two weeks.

Hangzhou, capital of Zhejiang Province, announced on Saturday it would permanently stop live poultry trade in the city proper.

As reported here on February 15 2014, 3 new H7N9 strains appeared after recombining with H9N2. There still is no clear evidence that any of these new strains transmits easily human-to-human. However, Liberty Voice reports that un-named scientists "fear a pandemic is about to strike."

Officially, China reports more than 120 human H7N9 cases with at least 32 deaths. Flutrackers reports 207 human H7N9 cases this year, and 221 cases in the 2nd wave, for a total of 357 cases since H7N9 appeared last spring.

Scientists Fear Bird Flu Pandemic Is About to Strike

Scientists working in Shanghai, China have announced that genetic differences in the potentially lethal bird flu virus which is going around China is increasing the possibility of a pandemic strain and they fear a pandemic is about to strike. There have been three new variations of the avian influenza type H7N9 virus found this winter. They came about by poultry transmission and the combination of genomic material from a flu strain known as H9N2. The researchers said that the various strains could be behind a swell of infections in a southern province of China which borders Hong Kong as well.

There have been more than 120 human H7N9 cases reported in China so far this year and at least 32 deaths, according to the latest official tally of the country's health and family planning commission.

CIDRAP reports that H7N9 cases may be leveling off from a burst of infections that appeared to coincide with Lunar New Year activity. China's 2 week ban on poultry sales in Guangzhou is over; Hong Kong has extended its ban on live poultry imports from the mainland.

Eight more H7N9 cases reported in China

Eight more H7N9 influenza cases have been reported from four of China's provinces over the past 3 days, signaling that cases may be leveling off from a burst of infections that appeared to coincide with Lunar New Year activity.

Hong Kong extends ban on live poultry imports from China

Hong Kong officials said on Tuesday they were extending for four months a ban on live poultry imports from mainland China to guard against the potentially deadly H7N9 avian flu.

Breeders desperate to offload stock as ban on live chicken sales ends

Some 600,000 chickens will be available at knock-down prices as farmers look to clear space and recoup losses of three-week suspension sparked by positive H7N9 sample

….Since the first case of H7N9 was reported last year, 348 human infections have been confirmed on the mainland, according to the Centre for Health Protection.

reply to post by soficrow


Mutations don't happen that quickly, not without help. That's important to know.

reply to post by WCmutant

Mutations don't happen that quickly, not without help. That's important to know.

Oh but they do - and the planet Earth is the biggest baddest petrie dish around. We have contaminated and polluted everything so extremely that virtually every living thing on this planet is now going through a process called "accelerated evolution" trying to adapt to all the changes - and many scientists think we're in the middle of the 6th Mass Extinction. No labs required. Not that a bunch of idiots with budgets don't mess with things they shouldn't, just that rapid evolution does not require their help.

FYI - I called corporate bioterrorism on the first strain of H7N9 - said Western poultry producers were trying to get China's backyard poultry industry shut down so they could take over the market - which is happening. I also predicted it would mutate out of control - which it appears to be doing.

...global corporations are competing for China's HUGE poultry market. Guess who benefits when the live markets and backyard chicken coops are shut down? And btw - corporations have a long history of using bioterrorism in their pursuit of profit.

....Looks like it's just more of the same monopoly game - Cargill used the American government to fight for access to China's poultry market, and backed the play with jobs for Chinese people. Americans lost those jobs - and we're ALL losing our rights to raise our own food, Chinese and American both.

* Was H7N9 genetically engineered and released on purpose? Is it all about killing the competition and grabbing market share?
* H7N9 mutates fast - will it evolve to become more benign or get worse?
* It's spreading fast, up to 83 cases at last count, but will it go pandemic?
* Are all cases being reported? Everyone keeps forgetting to count the 2nd case in Beijing - why IS that?
* Why are they blaming small business and small farmers when most of the evidence contradicts those "findings"?

reply to post by soficrow


Look at the history of the H-strains outbreaks (H1N1 especially) and you will find a strange correlation. I will be the first to say that correlation is not causation, however, correlation can be a strange animal indeed.

We could perhaps discuss/debate the AIDS virus ad nauseam. But that's a perfect example of a virus that mutated due to human factors (whether accidental or deliberate). My vote is deliberate, and it relates heavily to the amount of AIDS money the USA gives to African nations annually. I believe back in 2003-2008 Bush committed $15 billion over 5 years to fight AIDS. I don't want to derail this topic on that potential rabbit hole.

Biological warfare is not new. It's been happening for many centuries. That's why I suggested looking at the histories of the H-strains and their rise and fall (and locations). I still don't believe this new one mutated on it's own.

reply to post by WCmutant

Biological warfare is not new. It's been happening for many centuries.

Yes, and corporate bioterrorism is most predictable, likely and common - that's why I called the first strain as genetically engineered.

I still don't believe this new one mutated on it's own.

Then you don't understand biology or the real danger of bioterrorism: once it's loose you can't control it, and it WILL mutate, sometimes with astounding rapidity. ...Do you know that every host "manufactures" it's own customized new strain?

Today's report from the FAO says they've ruled out human-to-animal spread of influenza A(H7N9). If true, this is very good news. But other reports create some confusion about the real situation.

On February 18, 2014, CIDRAP reported that the recent gush of H7N9 influenza cases may be continuing to ebb. South China Morning Post reported that China's live market bans were lifted, apparently in Guangzhou, and the headline read Breeders desperate to offload stock as ban on live chicken sales ends. Now, the link retrieves the headline, "Ban on Chinese live poultry extended for four months," saying the article was updated Wednesday, 19 February, 2014, 4:22pm. Meanwhile, other agencies have been reporting that human H7N9 bird flu infections continue to rise and that on Saturday, Guangzhou banned all live poultry markets for two (more?) weeks, through 28 February.

Not sure what's going on but something seems to be up. Official US and China reports are conflicting with other news reports. Not what I'd expect from CIDRAP.

Chinese Cities Ban Poultry Trading as H7N9 Cases Rise

Chinese cities have stepped up control of the live poultry trade as the number of human H7N9 bird flu infections continues to rise. ...

On Saturday, Guangzhou, banned all live poultry markets for two weeks. The ban remains in effect through 28 February as part of the government's new effort to curb the spread of the H7N9 virus.

Markets Close Due to Worsening H7N9 Bird Flu

17 February 2014
CHINA – Poultry markets in two Chinese cities have been closed as the bird flu death toll continues to mount.

...A two week hiatus has been placed on Guangzhou markets, while Hangzhou has enforced a permanent ban in response to the year’s H7N9 bird flu death toll rising to 32.

More cases after a brief lull.

New H7N9 cases in China include first in Jilin province
CIDRAP News | Feb 21, 2014

China today reported four new H7N9 infections, one fatal, including the first case from Jilin province, which lies well north of the main outbreak area.

….Over the past several days the second wave of infections has tapered off, after exceeding the last spring's first wave. So far 229 H7N9 infections have been reported in the second wave, compared with 136 during the first.

Researchers detail father-son case cluster

… the boy had significant unprotected exposure to his father while he was sick and that the two had not had contact with poultry, but had been near a poultry environment.

…The case fits with a risk assessment from the World Health Organization (WHO) that says the virus doesn't transmit easily from human to human, but human-to-human transmission may have occurred when there was close unprotected contact with sick patients.