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H7N9 has mutated, may spread from human to human: expert

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posted on Jan, 17 2014 @ 07:35 AM
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RE: H7N9 Epidemic 2nd Wave





[Update]




edit on 17/1/14 by soficrow because: (no reason given)




posted on Jan, 17 2014 @ 07:35 AM
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off-topic post removed to prevent thread-drift


 



posted on Jan, 17 2014 @ 07:53 AM
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The H7N9 Epidemic is into its 2nd wave - the number of cases in the past couple of weeks is close to the number at the peak of last spring's epidemic. This means it's more likely that the virus will develop the last mutations needed to make person-to-person transmission more efficient. When that happens, we will be facing a pandemic.



posted on Jan, 17 2014 @ 07:48 PM
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H7N9 hospitalizes 6 more in China

Six H7N9 influenza infections were reported in two Chinese provinces and the city of Shanghai today, keeping the volume of new cases within striking distance of peak activity the country saw during the outbreak's first wave last spring.

China's National Health and Family Planning Commission today addressed the quickly rising number of H7N9 cases, especially since the first of the year, according a report today from Xinhua, the state news agency. It said 28 cases have been reported so far.

The cases are scattered, and so far no mutations have been identified that signal a threat to human health, the commission said in a statement. It added that the virus is still spreading from birds to humans and that the chance of a large-scale outbreak is slim. However, it said the cases are likely to continue rising, alongside the increase in poultry trade to meet the demand for Spring Festival celebrations.



posted on Jan, 18 2014 @ 08:58 AM
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On Friday, CIDRAP reported the H7N9 outbreak total at 194 infections, including 53 deaths. There may have been at least 6 more cases and 1 death confirmed after CIDRAP's summary. China and other authorities say this is an H7N9 outbreak, not epidemic. New cases keep appearing but still no evidence of sustained person-to-person transmission.


CIDRAP. Friday, January 17, 2014. Today's confirmed case announcements lift the H7N9 outbreak total to 194 infections, including 53 deaths.


Three new human H7N9 cases were reported on Friday in east China's Zhejiang Province, bringing the total number to 17 in the region, local authorities said.


Three human H7N9 cases in Guangdong

GUANGZHOU, Jan. 18 (Xinhua) -- Three new cases of human H7N9 were reported Saturday in south China's Guangdong Province, bringing the total number of cases in the province to 21, provincial health authorities said.


Bird Flu Epidemic Dampens Chinese Lunar New Year


H7N9 epidemic unlikely: health watchdog



edit on 18/1/14 by soficrow because: format



posted on Jan, 18 2014 @ 02:57 PM
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On Friday, CIDRAP reported the H7N9 outbreak total at 194 infections, including 53 deaths - China's National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) reported a total of 187 human cases (as of 9pm Friday) - then updated their total to 195 cases on Saturday.



Published on: 2014-01-18. CHP notified of eight additional human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) in Mainland

[Saturday January 18, 2014]
…As of 9pm today, a total of 195 human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) have been confirmed in the Mainland, including
Zhejiang (71 cases), [up from 68 on Friday]
Shanghai (38 cases),
Jiangsu (30 cases),
Guangdong (23 cases), [20 F]
Fujian (11 cases), [9 F]
Jiangxi (six cases),
Anhui (four cases),
Henan (four cases),
Beijing (two cases),
Hunan (two cases),
Shandong (two cases),
Hebei (one case) and
Guizhou (one case, imported from Zhejiang).



posted on Jan, 20 2014 @ 09:31 PM
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Nothing to see here. Move along.



23 more H7N9 cases in China over the weekend confirmed by the WHO, added to the 24 that appeared last week with 2 more deaths, including a doctor. The WHO says cases are sporadic and sees no reason to change current risk assessment. The Scientist reviews person-to-person transmission. More cases are expected - it's flu season and China's New Year and Spring Festival involves much travel and poultry consumption. Meanwhile, Vietnam confirms its first human death from H5N1 in over 9 months after declaring an H5N1 epidemic in birds last week.


More infected in fresh wave of China bird flu
Kate Kelland Reuters

LONDON — Another 23 people in China have been infected with the H7N9 strain of bird flu in recent days, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday, adding to at least 24 new cases last week and confirming a fresh surge in the virus.

...Several clusters of cases in people who had close contact with an infected person have been reported in China, but WHO reiterated on Monday that "so far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission".

Hartl told Reuters last week that the United Nations health agency had noted the recent rapid increase in human H7N9 infections and was keeping a watchful eye.

"So far we haven't seen anything that causes us to change our risk assessment," he said.


Person-to-Person H7N9?
The death of a medical worker in China prompts worries that the virus can spread between humans.

By Abby Olena | January 20, 2014

In August, the H7N9 strain of avian influenza appeared to have been transmitted between people, and now it may have happened again. Bloomberg reports that a 31-year-old male health worker at a Shanghai hospital died January 18 of H7N9 infection.

“It’s always a concern when health workers die,” Geneva World Health Organization (WHO) Spokesperson Gregory Hartl told Bloomberg. “Hospitals and other medical facilities are a flash point for human-to-human transmission. We would be very much wanting to follow up in as much detail as possible on this case.”

The WHO reported that there have been more than 40 lab-confirmed human cases of H7N9 influenza in China since the beginning of 2014, but said that “there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission.” ...Some research suggests that H7N9 is only one mutation away from human-to-human transmission, and it has already been shown to spread between ferrets. ...


Human transmissions of H7N9 'sporadic'
2014-01-21 08:35China DailyWeb Editor: Sun Tian
Human-to-human transmission of the H7N9 bird flu virus might occur on a limited scale in China, the World Health Organization representative to the country said on Monday.

But there is no evidence that the virus will become sustained or widespread among humans, Bernhard Schwartlander said.

..."Since October, only one cluster was detected where human-to-human transmission might have occurred. We continue to expect only sporadic human cases," Schwartlander said.

He referred to a case involving a 30-year-old man and his father-in-law in Zhejiang province. The local health authority said that the possibility of limited human-to-human transmission couldn't be ruled out in the case, which was reported in December.

However, Schwartlander said it is not known whether H7N9 will cause a pandemic.

Sustained human-to-human transmission is usually needed for a pandemic, but so far "there is no evidence of sustained or widespread human-to-human transmission of the virus, which infects both birds and humans," he stressed.




Vietnam confirms first human bird flu death in 9 months
Vietnam - Bac Ninh declares H5N1 bird flu epidemic



posted on Jan, 21 2014 @ 08:53 AM
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Sucks but true:


1. H7N9 bird flu causes sporadic human-to-human transmission, but not sustained;
2. The virus might develop the ability to sustain human-to-human transmission - or it might not; so
3. It is unknown whether or not H7N9 will cause a pandemic; and
4. Nobody really knows where H7N9 infections come from.


Human transmissions of H7N9 to happen in limited scale: WHO
January 21, 2014 at 6:51 pm

A World Health Organization representative has said that human-to-human transmission of the H7N9 bird flu virus might occur on a limited scale in China.

Bernhard Schwartlander said that there is no proof that the virus is going to become sustained or widespread among humans, and that it is not known whether H7N9 will cause a pandemic, China Daily reported.

…He added that sustained human-to-human transmission is needed for a pandemic, but so far there was no proof of sustained or widespread human-to-human transmission of the virus…


H7N9 Bird Flu: WHO Confirms Sporadic Human-to-Human Transmission as Death Toll Rises

Over 200 cases of H7N9 recorded in China after doctor dies from disease in Shanghai

…31-year-old Zhang Xiaodong, an emergency doctor, died from pneumonia and respiratory failure.

Tests confirmed he had been carrying the H7N9 virus. …

Zhang had not had contact with people with flu-like symptoms and had not had any close contact with live poultry



...Earlier news reports said Zhang had been sick for about a week but was a "very committed" doctor, and kept working. Hmmm. Wonder how his patients are doing.



posted on Jan, 21 2014 @ 10:27 AM
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soficrow
reply to post by LadySkadi
 


Ugh, am I the only one that's starting to get confused? H7N9, H5N1 and H1N1 are getting all mixed in my head...


Nope. The confusion is going around. ...Just think dog breeds - they're all dogs, but different. H7N9 is the latest bird flu out of China, not quite as deadly as H5N1 and now known to spread person-to-person. H5N1 bird flu dates back a good few years - it's endemic in Asia and was hitting Cambodia hard earlier this year - and now, turned up in one case in Canada. Both H7N9 and H5N1 can affect the brain. H1N1 swine flu was pandemic in 2009 and is now in its 3rd or 4th wave.



Neurological Manifestation in New Emerging H7N9 Influenza

H5N1 Bird Flu and the Dementia Pandemic






No, H7N9 has NOT been confirmed to spread from person to person.
edit on 21-1-2014 by nixie_nox because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 21 2014 @ 08:28 PM
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reply to post by nixie_nox
 


No, H7N9 has NOT been confirmed to spread from person to person.


You're right - there's a good degree of dancing but it's generally agreed that there is limited person-to-person transmission, although not sustained or widespread person-to-person transmission. Authorities do not want people to panic and it's the most important time of year in China (New Year's and the Spring Festival).

REUTERS. H7N9 Bird Flu: WHO Confirms Sporadic Human-to-Human Transmission as Death Toll Rises







edit on 21/1/14 by soficrow because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 22 2014 @ 07:47 PM
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H7N9 cases are mounting in China, but it's flu season so we can't jump to any conclusions. Yes, the situation is likely a bit worse than is being disclosed but there's no reason to panic. CIDRAP published a good overview today: WHO weighs H7N9 risk as cases mount.



posted on Jan, 24 2014 @ 07:32 AM
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As reported earlier, January 31 is Chinese New Year - we should see what's really happening with this bug by mid-February when everyone is done feasting and travelling. January 31 also is the date China's credit bubble is predicted to crash - and there's nothing like a crisis to cover up a crisis.
Thursday, 2014/01/23 - Health officials in China reported 10 more H7N9 cases and 2 more deaths - Flutrackers reports 74 cases in 2014, for a 227 case total.
Friday, 2014/01/24 - Taiwan's CDC says China reported over H7N9 100 cases since fall - Minnesota's CIDRAP notes the pace of H7N9 cases in China continues unabated - Xinhua reports another 9 cases reported overnight, Flutrackers total up to 236 cases.

The $23 Trillion Credit Bubble In China Is Starting To Collapse – Global Financial Crisis Next?
Is The China Bank Run Beginning? Farmers Co-Op Unable To Pay Depositors

China reports 10 additional H7N9 cases
FLUTRACKERS, H7N9
WHO Update H7N9 January 23, 2014

China reports over 100 H7N9 cases since last fall
Pace of H7N9 cases in China continues unabated

China reports 9 new H7N9 human cases

(Xinhua) 20:15, January 24, 2014

BEIJING, Jan. 24 -- Nine human H7N9 bird flu cases were newly reported in China on Friday, including one in Beijing, one in Guangdong Province and seven in Zhejiang Province, forcing cities in Zhejiang to close their live poultry markets.




THANKS surrealist: 20 Early Warning Signs That We Are Approaching A Global Economic Meltdown



posted on Jan, 27 2014 @ 12:16 PM
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New cases keep appearing and damage control revs up.

Beijing ‘Downgrades’ H7N9 Bird Flu Description as New Cases Spike



posted on Jan, 28 2014 @ 08:58 AM
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INTERESTING...


Bird Flu Spreads Human-to-Human, Admit Chinese Authorities

The Chinese authorities on Jan. 27 acknowledged for the first time that they have discovered cases of human-to-human infection with the H7N9 bird flu, while remaining vague on the details in an attempt to prevent public panic.

In a short statement on Jan. 27, the authorities said that human-to-human transmission was recorded in eastern China’s Zhejiang Province. They do not specify the number of cases, nor the city in which they took place.

The H7N9 Joint Prevention and Control Office said the infection or infections took place under “particular conditions” and are “non-sustained transmissions,” meaning that it is not expected to spread from those incidents.

...Experts at the China Center of Disease Control, however, said it was just a “special case,” and human-to-human transmission of H7N9 is not yet very widespread.

“The public has no need to panic too much,” said Xinhua, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party.

...144 people were diagnosed with H7N9 in China last year, but just this month there have been 103 H7N9 bird flu patients, according to Chinese official reports, which may be incomplete. At least 20 have died from infection this year. New reports are issued daily with more cases.



posted on Jan, 29 2014 @ 01:40 PM
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Human-to-human transmission still seems limited BUT co-infection with H3N2 and H1N1 is very likely - and so is reassortment. If someone is co-infected with H7N9 (or H5N1) and H1N1 or H3N2 and reassortment occurs, then we're more likely to see a new pandemic strain. Only time will tell. If we make it through Chinese New Year without a new pandemic strain emerging we're probably good to go. Til next year. Or maybe not, given the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and H7N9-2012 both emerged around May.

January 29, 2014 Chinese family of three infected with H7N9

January 27, 2014China confirms limited interhuman infection of H7N9 bird flu

Bird flu costs China's farmers 20 bln


Analysis of new H7N9 wave warns of coinfection threat

...Though ongoing H7N9 influenza activity in China—with eight new cases reported today—is mainly a zoonotic event, its parallel rise with seasonal flu poses a virus reassortment threat, according to a new assessment today from European health officials.

...Though the H7N9 virus doesn't appear to have the capacity for efficient human-to-human spread, new reassortants with seasonal flu strains could arm it with the ability to transmit more easily, a situation that bears close monitoring, the organization added.

Seasonal flu activity is at high levels and still increasing in China, with all three strains circulating, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its global flu update. In southern China the dominant strains are H3N2 and the 2009 H1N1 virus, while the northern part is seeing mainly 2009 H1N1.



posted on Jan, 31 2014 @ 01:55 PM
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Starting today - Chinese New Year - there will be 40 days of celebration, festivities and travel. And people will be taking their bugs with them - H7N9, H5N1, H1N1, H10N8, and more. Who knows what will happen next?

China’s Second H7N9 Wave Tops Infections Seen In Spring Outbreak

GREAT overview: Threatwatch: Mother virus of China's deadly bird flu



posted on Feb, 3 2014 @ 04:39 PM
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25 deaths already this year but still no sustained person-to-person transmission.


H7N9 kills 2 more as toll hits 25

TWO people were reported yesterday to have died of the H7N9 flu virus in China — bringing the death toll this year to 25.

…As bird flu cases are increasing on a daily basis, public concern over people-to-people transmission of the disease during the Spring Festival is growing, but health experts said inter-human transmission was unlikely.


Canada watching new H7N9 flu, feels risk still low

…Past studies of H7 flu viruses have shown they are poorly immunogenic; without an adjuvant, even large doses produced poor results.

The U.S.-funded studies of H7N9 vaccine have confirmed that two doses per person would be needed to get a protective response, and that an adjuvant would be needed.


CDC Director: China Bird Flu Outbreak Closely Watched

…Tom Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and administrator of the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, tells Here & Now’s Jeremy Hobson that the outbreak is worrisome, but China is being more transparent than ever.

…“We don’t understand completely how it’s spreading from birds to humans. We do know that the virus itself has certain genetic characteristics that make it relatively easy for it to spread from the birds to people. Fortunately it does not yet have the genetic characteristics to spread from one person to another person, except if there’s very intense close contact, such as someone who is caring for someone who is very sick, or are close in the family. But it’s not spreading person to person – yet.”



posted on Feb, 4 2014 @ 01:03 PM
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China reports 14 new cases of H7N9. Studies find H7N9 wipes out the elderly and infirm, while H5N1 and H1N1 targets the young and healthy. Meanwhile, Cambodia has it's first H5N1 human case of 2014.


14 New Cases of Human Infection with H7N9 Virus are Reported to WHO

On Feb. 2, 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) of China notified the World Health Organization (WHO) of additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus including one death.

….While the recent report of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus being detected in live poultry imported from the mainland to Hong Kong SAR, shows the potential for the virus to spread through live poultry, at this time there is no indication that international spread of avian influenza A(H7N9) has occurred through humans or animals.

Further sporadic human cases of A(H7N9) infection are expected in affected and possibly neighbouring areas, especially given expected increases in the trade and transport of poultry associated with the Lunar New Year.


Study: H7N9 patients much older than H5N1, H1N1 patients

An international team that compared patients hospitalized with H7N9 avian flu, H5N1, or 2009 H1N1 flu found that H7N9 patients were much older and much more likely to be male, according to a new study in Clinical Infectious Diseases. The study also found that heart disease was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization with H7N9 flu.

…the median age of H7N9 patients was 63 years, compared with 26 for H5N1 and 25 for 2009 H1N1. The proportion of male H7N9 patients was 71%, compared with 56% for both H5N1 and 2009 H1N1 patients.

The authors also noted marked differences in clinical presentation among the three groups, with H7N9 patients having the highest prevalence of chronic medical conditions traditionally associated with severe cases of seasonal flu. They also found an almost 10-fold increased risk for being hospitalized with H7N9 in patients with chronic heart disease.

The group speculated that the significantly higher median age in H7N9 patients might be associated with increased environmental exposure or because elderly people may have a greater propensity to become infected or severely ill following virus exposure.


H5N1 Avian Influenza: First Human Case Reported In Cambodia In 2014

After reporting 26 human H5N1 avian influenza cases in 2013, by far the most of any country, the Kingdom of Cambodia has announced their first case of the lethal bird flu on 2014, according to a Ministry of Health press release Feb. 4.



posted on Feb, 7 2014 @ 09:20 AM
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Move over H7N9 - H10N8 is here. And China's poultry industry is fighting back - asking that "local authorities “stop reporting individual cases” and even suggested dropping the word “avian” or “bird” and simply referring to the outbreak as the “flu.” With billions of dollars at stake, the industry will likely exert more and more pressure to stop its losses."

If you're getting confused, here's a (mostly accurate) basic primer: How to make sense of H10N8, H1N1, H7N9, and other bewildering bird flu names.


China's New Avian Flu Has "Pandemic Potential"

Even as the H7N9 avian flu continues to spread within China, a new flu strain has already claimed one life. The Los Angeles Times reports that a new H10N8 avian flu infected at least two people last month, and one of the patients (an elderly woman) did not survive. Though there have only been two reported infections so far, a Chinese study on the virus (published in The Lancet medical journal) warned of H10N8′s “pandemic potential.” The scientists are concerned that H10N8 could adapt to be spread directly between humans. However, there’s still no evidence to suggest either of these strains can currently be transmitted from person to person


Hong Kong learns of eight new avian flu cases in China
Published on February 7, 2014 by Bryan Cohen

The Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection announced on Wednesday that it received notification of eight additional human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 in China.

The eight cases reported on Tuesday bring the total number of human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 to 292 in China. The Department of Health’s CHP said it was closely monitoring the situation.


China reports 314 confirmed H7N9 avian flu cases

The number of confirmed human cases of H7N9 avian influenza in China and Hong Kong has reached 314 since an outbreak on the mainland began last March...

The major conclusion of the study is that even though person-to-person spread of the virus cannot be ruled out, this type of transmission is limited and not constant.



posted on Feb, 10 2014 @ 08:10 PM
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UPDATE. Lots more new cases but still no sustained human-to-human transmission.


H7N9 illness total grows by 13, with 2 more deaths
Feb 10, 2014

Over the past 3 days, China reported 13 new H7N9 influenza infections, 2 of them fatal, from a broad swath of provinces in the eastern part of the country, including the first 2 cases of the second wave from Anhui province.

….The steady pace of reported infections has propelled the number of cases in the second wave of disease activity to 201, well above the 136 people who were sickened in the first wave after H7N9 first emerged last spring.

Also, there so far appears to be no letup in case reporting from China or its individual provinces, despite media reports from a few days ago that said the country's poultry industry groups have asked health officials to tone down their reports, due to the impact negative publicity is having on poultry sales.

….The new cases boost the outbreak total to 337, according to a running tally of H7N9 cases kept by FluTrackers. The two fatalities lift the unofficial death count to 71.


A good overview from Marilyn McKenna: H7N9 Flu, Year Two: What Is Going On?



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