The Sheer Absurdity of the Recovery Story

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posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 08:50 AM
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The following showed up on ZeroHedge a day or so ago and rather than being a concise financial article it came across as a vague and unsupported rant. However there seems to be some dissension on ATS about whether the economy is getting better or worse so I dug into a couple of the points from the article to try and get more than just the rant.

FWIW my take on the economy is that it's still going down the tubes. Except for the QE inflated stock market of course.

The Sheer Absurdity of the Recovery Story


At some point, someone has to call BS on the entire talk of the recovery.

Since 2009, we’ve been told that things have improved. The fact of the matter is that the improvement has been largely due to accounting tricks rather than any real change in reality.

Sure you can make unemployment look better by not counting people, you can claim the economy is growing by ignoring inflation, you can argue that inflation is low because you don’t count food or energy, but the reality is that all of these arguments are grade “A” BS.

We are now five years into the “recovery.” The single and I mean SINGLE accomplishment from spending over $3 trillion has been the stock market going higher. This is a complete and total failure. Based on the business cycle alone, the economy should be roaring.

Unemployment
Here I wanted to know what the "real" US unemployment numbers were including long term and those who have given up. The results weren't very good. The government says unemployment is around 7% but if we factor in all the unemployed it about 24%.


Inflation
We keep hearing the Fed saying inflation is around 2%. Personally I'm unsure what part of the multiverse they're coming from but it's sure not here. Anyone who's been grocery shopping can see through that lie. Using the methodologies to calculate CPI from 1980 we get a more believable inflation rate of just under 10%.


So the next time the Fed say "Hey things are great!" look again. The article itself was also correct about the MSM lies.

Shadow Government Statistics
edit on 661am5050am82014 by Bassago because: (no reason given)




posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 08:57 AM
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Things are booming here in all catigories. home sales , unemployment total people working. Only people not working are going to college or just don't want to work. Not enough electricians, welders , drywallers ect, ect, ect!



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 09:08 AM
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reply to post by mikell
 


So one vote for "things are great."

What area are you located at if you don't mind me asking?



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 09:09 AM
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it's surprising how well you can make the economy look, when selling the souls of future generations.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 09:20 AM
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Home sales up here in Tidewater region of Virginia. Home prices up too. Jobs on the increase unemployment down. Retail sales up. Looks like this is just your doomy POV.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 09:22 AM
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OceanSpray
it's surprising how well you can make the economy look, when selling the souls of future generations.


Quite right. What was it Obama said recently? Oh yeah, we don't have a debt problem. We do however have a debt to GDP problem.




posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 09:28 AM
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AutumnWitch657
Home sales up here in Tidewater region of Virginia. Home prices up too. Jobs on the increase unemployment down. Retail sales up. Looks like this is just your doomy POV.


I'm glad for you. Housing bubble bit us in the backside before. I'm simply pointing out the lies coming out of the government and the FED about unemployment and inflation.

Personally this stuff doesn't really effect me much either way but thanks for the poke.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 10:31 AM
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AutumnWitch657
Home sales up here in Tidewater region of Virginia. Home prices up too. Jobs on the increase unemployment down. Retail sales up. Looks like this is just your doomy POV.


So, based on your location, I would say that government is the number one employer, with all the ridiculous programs paid for with non-existent money. How super for y'all.

As far as the rest of the country, if the area isn't being pumped with funny money from Uncle Sugar, things are pretty bleak.

I would suggest looking at the bigger picture, rather than making blanket assumptions based on a very small area.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 11:12 AM
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reply to post by FissionSurplus
 


Dead on! When I was in sales Virginia was nice because we were taught that it is recession proof due to Uncle Sam's subsidies. This isn't completely true but for the most part correct. Virginia has some of the highest income areas in the country so we need a better gauge than autumnwitch's normalcy bias.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 11:21 AM
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AutumnWitch657
Home sales up here in Tidewater region of Virginia. Home prices up too. Jobs on the increase unemployment down. Retail sales up. Looks like this is just your doomy POV.


To be fair, we have the world's largest Naval base, two huge shipyards, and a couple of large international shipping terminals helping to keep the Tidewater economy healthy. Even so, the upcoming tolls will by syphoning a lot of money out of our economy; and Obamacare will put a dent in the number of full time jobs. Our economic picture is brighter than most areas, but we will be taking a hard hit this year.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 12:21 PM
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Booming, or at least stabilized with great economy in my area as well.

Pretty sure I'm the exception to the standard, thou.

D/FW metro.

If you got the means to consolidate and liquidate your assets, consider coming to the lone star state.

We got jobs.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 12:58 PM
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Everything here in NW Kansas seems to be going just fine, yet if we do not get any snowfall this year. Its over! People are still spending money; credit, farm land and cattle is the cash crop though they say. Last I heard, China was not interested in gmo's grain so it's going to get interesting, plus if no rain/snow does not happen this year. More cattle will have to be sold off.

As far as I see it. USA is not only broke; has been for quite some time. Money is the issue for most states, Colo came up with selling weed, maybe now they can fix their roads and highways. It might look good elsewhere, on paper yet somehow somethings not right.

When it does fall, it will fall fast! I just do not think the US has any more cards left. Well, at least money anyways!

Peace



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 01:45 PM
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reply to post by FissionSurplus
 




So, based on your location, I would say that government is the number one employer, with all the ridiculous programs paid for with non-existent money. How super for y'all.


That was an employer I hadn't taken into account as the fed government is so far from here they seldom make the radar. They do have some impact on the other side of the state (Ft Lewis-McCord and Bremerton) but that's it.

Poverty rates are pretty high in my neck of the woods as we have a definite rich vs poor divide. Even the few big employers pay lousy wages for the most part as they can get away with it. Illegal immigration is rampant here as well causing stiff competition even for the lowest wage jobs. Central Washington state.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 02:10 PM
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I already went over the cliff, I just scurry around trying to avoid be squashed by new arrivals when they hit bottom.

You can see a lot of pretty sky down here, going to run short of places to stand and view it though, running around trying not to be squashed or thrown in jail because I'm one of those "scary free people".

The Truth people do not want to see best keep itself hidden.

This country is screwed no matter how you twist your view on it, many just don't realize it yet because they can still afford to pay the electric bill.

The sky is even prettier at night.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 03:40 PM
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reply to post by Bassago
 


Sadly I believe this is true for a lot of economies. I've recently been studying accountancy, we were looking at how organisations manipulate figures to suit motives and make their business a more attractive investment. This is all legal. Gearing and ratios can be manipulated very easily, so it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest governments would use similar techniques in an attempt to become more appealing to the populace and even investment oddly enough.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 03:53 PM
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Anyone that is expecting to fully recover after a global financial meltdown that was the worst economical meltdown since the global depression of the 1930's is going to be disappointed. It's probably going to take a good 10-15 years to recover.

Right now things are considerably better than they were in 2009, the economy has been successfully stabilized



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 04:01 PM
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reply to post by muse7


Right now things are considerably better than they were in 2009, the economy has been successfully stabilized

 


Stabilized below standards for most, and still sinking but at a slower rate.

Stabilized and rising for the bankers/corporatists and their ilk.

Not good enough.

Fail.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 04:03 PM
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sohoyoyonogo
reply to post by Bassago
 


so it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest governments would use similar techniques in an attempt to become more appealing to the populace and even investment oddly enough.


I'm sure businesses put their best face forward (by lie or omissions) and can negatively impact investors. I'm not suggesting businesses are by any means correct to do this just that they (normally) have a much lower impact.

Governments however should have a higher standard to which they ascribe IMO. The well being and security of a nations citizens are at stake. Below is part of the caption from the shadowstats page I got the inflation data from.

The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab here reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation

Yep, they're fudging the numbers.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 04:12 PM
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reply to post by Bassago
 


I totally agree with you there, you'd think an important all encompassing organisational structure such as a government would be able to report factual, honest information not to better itself but to help the people it's meant to be serving. But some say I live in a dream world.



posted on Jan, 12 2014 @ 04:13 PM
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xuenchen
reply to post by muse7


Right now things are considerably better than they were in 2009, the economy has been successfully stabilized

 


Stabilized below standards for most, and still sinking but at a slower rate.

Stabilized and rising for the bankers/corporatists and their ilk.

Not good enough.

Fail.


Going by the two charts I posted a person would 1) have to totally buy the government disinfo about unemployment and inflation, then, 2) completely ignore the rise in food stamp dependent families as well as 3) completely ignore the Feds QE global pump and dump scheme that has rocket propelled the stock market beyond sanity.

I for one just can't do it.



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