What will be the outcome for the 4 people who take the one way trip to mars?

WilsonWilson

I don't think it's only the unwashed, uneducated masses who think it's not a good idea to spend billions on space programs when you've got people starving in the streets.

Erm yes it is. If you cant see the potential then yes your a idiot.

Sorry but the solar system is full of resources we NEED, resources we are running out of. If we have a big enough push to move out the resource abundance will bring in a whole new golden age of prosperity.

I mean you have billions? What are you going to do? Give it out on free welfare? That's a few billion or even trillion down the drain right there as money isn't "free". Eventually the money runs out and you have to find billion more to hand out to people, people that are breeding and so demanding MORE money.

NO! What you need too do is to invest that money in technology and new areas of industrial expansion to create jobs and produce new resources. Well on earth this is becoming more and more difficult. Earth's population is exploding and new resource discoveries are becoming rarer.

We need to move out into the solar system to sustain us. And we need to start now, not wait 100 years until the situation on earth is critical. You think the earth's problems are bad now? Wait for 50-100 years when the earths population will likey be 10 billion + we are out of oil, platnium is all used up and things like copper and even Iron are as expensive as silver and gold.

I just don't see how people cant see this.

wmd_2008
reply to post by flipflop

 

Easy, NOTHING because the Mission won't happen.

This'll be my signature in 2023.

I'd bet they don't EVER actually attempt to send anyone into space because the concept, as of now, is Reality TV show based on Ad revenue, ala Capricorn One or those old Fox Alien Autopsy shows. The REAL ad money and high TV viewer numbers lay in showing these people "get ready" for space travel and colonization, NOT in the actual space flight and colonization. There is simply no way to support these people long term with proper supplies/spares, ground technical support staff and MAKE A PROFIT; should the colonizers ACTUALLY be successful surviving day to day, but also at the same time not be sufficiently "entertaining" enough in their day-to-day activities to generate "TV viewers" and "Ad revenue".

zatara
reply to post by flipflop

 

Taking in consideration that these first pioneers will be selected because of their natural interest voor sciences, curiosity and the required skills to be on their own and among a few other people, these first inhabitans of Mars will have a ball...if they have everything to last a lifetime.

You actually believe these people will be chosen "because of their natural interest in voor sciences, curiosity and the required skills to be on their own" via the established and advertised Facebook selection process? I'd bet my life savings right here and now they won't even have a proper Medical Professional that can do actual surgical procedures with them on the trip. A successful 12-0 high school football coach can't even keep his job in America for not Toeing the Line, so what are the chances qualified people will be chosen for this endeavor?

Newsflash, REAL "pioneers" don't make good reality TV, nor are they cooperative corporate leeches. Basically anyone that could actually pull this off would NEVER be considered for selection these days by the corporate suits OR their appointed screeners. Why? Because they would have questions about the equipment, safety/reliability, staff support, etc, etc, etc, that no corporate suits could answer and would have no intention of even trying to answer anyway. Available technology aside, in the 1960's and before, a Mars mission of any kind could have possibly been successful, due PRIMARILY to proper qualified staff selection, I would say even in the 1980's and early 1990's, but today that kind of proper staff selection is IMPOSSIBLE! I don't even think the management/operations mindset needed for proper staffing fulfillment even exists anymore in America, but that's a different topic all together.

Also I still don't get the overall selection process, wouldn't an experienced medical doctor, engineer, pilot/navigator and biologist be the BARE minimum part of the crew? Does every "approved" applicant so far have these academic backgrounds or combinations of? I've always been under the impression that Astronaut/Cosmonaut selection is difficult because you need to find people who are BOTH smart enough to be a doctor/MD/engineer/programmer/pilot AND also at the same time, be mentally tough enough to comfortably live like a "less-intelligent prisoner" constantly in solitary confinement with no stimulation outside of the confined area. Basically an experienced submariner with an engineering AND flight/pilot background. Does this kind of person even exist in the general population?

Add in a "popularity" contest via Facebook to ALL of the above and "proper/safe selection" of candidates becomes absolutely impossible

JadeStar
Assuming they only plan on solar power they'd be fine, we know very well the solar flux for different times of the year at different places on Mars. That's part of what the previous missions were sent there to find. They will have planned for this.
Beyond solar, they could just as well bring along a small nuclear power plant (google SNAP generator).

They'll have tools to fix them. They'll also have redundant systems for key things like life support.

You do know that they just signed a contract with Lockheed-Martin to build a lander right? What do you think that lander is going to do? Take pretty pictures? No, it's going to characterize the site, probably take along some ground penetrating radar and gamma ray spectrometer to reduce the likelihood of whoops.

It's like the critics of this mission assume everyone involved is stupid or they haven't thought it out well. I've taken a look at the plan and like I said, it is fairly well thought out technically.

Who in the world that can fix a nuclear reactor with no proper spare parts AND has prior experience, is also going to volunteer AND then be chosen for the actual mission via Facebook voting? The very likely, 6-12 months of accelerated "prep training" that these people are going to get won't cut it. The first mechanical or system failure will result in death of the whole crew otherwise. They will need someone along the lines of a modern nuclear submarine engineer, combined with the machinist's mate skill set and be able to comprehend software programming relevant to the systems on the spaceship. Does that combined even exist, let alone add in solar panel engineering knowledge and then make sure you can get it all cross-trained into just 4 people total? In fact, I'd argue the whole crew of the first 4 people will need to be comprised ENTIRELY of experienced submariners who have served on nuclear vessels for at least a decade. There is no way to get that kind of astronaut crew via volunteers, vetted by Facebook voting.

On top of all this, I think there are some pretty serious issues here that can't be solved by a private corporation seeking "profits" through advertisement fees generated by a "reality TV" business model, discounting the obvious unknown issues like radiation, water supply, breathable air, psychotic episodes, etc. The type of crew THEY NEED is not going to volunteer and/or not be chosen by their Facebook voting process. So then we have to ask who is left to go? How long and how well will they "be trained" under a "for profit" business model? Will they receive sufficient spare parts and resupply over the long haul of the project? Who on their "earth ground support team" is going to CONSTANTLY, 24/7, work out technical and engineering problems with mock ups etc like they did with Apollo, the Space Shuttle and the current Space Station? Do you believe the private corporations sponsoring this trip will pay this highly technical staff on Earth salaries for YEARS if the mission is successful to keep those 4 people alive? I personally don't think its possible to be BOTH entertaining enough to draw viewers AND be successful at surviving the Martian wilderness long term. The minute the ads don't pull in the revenue to justify their resupply and ground support, is the minute these first Mars explorers dies of some cause related to not being properly resupplied.

I personally think, if push came to shove, the Corporate suits would pull the plug on the them the minute they start losing money and then we would hear the "sad news" of their "accidental" demise. Also since they are in space, is it legal for the company to maroon then with no support due to dwindling finances? Would anyone go to jail on earth for their abandonment, manslaughter/murder, due to lack of support/resupply?

I'd certainly bet the viewing public would never see then die on the live TV feed, showing EXACTLY how the mission failed due to suicide, accidental death, murder, disease, equipment failure, etc. Its something that would get "leaked" years later long after the company leading all this has folded, filed for bankruptcy and sold or patents/IP to the highest bidder. No matter how you slice it we the viewer will be getting a "Price, Whitman & Haddad" endgame "basking under the Maui Sun" on broadcast TV, ala the Running Man, but in actuality just rotting/mummified corpses sitting around an inflatable Mars base. Heck its reality TV, they might try to give them "forced daily tasks" to get their food, water, etc from a locked resupply crate. I highly doubt they'll be allowed to just sit around all day. That would be a boring "no go" for people buying advertising in the time slot.We can't even keep low paid workers alive in factories making shoes and electronics, do you think 4 nobody's selected via Facebook to go to Mars would fare any better?

boohoo

Who in the world that can fix a nuclear reactor with no proper spare

Not sure were your getting the no spare parts bit from. Last time I checked they were sending some supply runs ahead that im pretty sure will have spare parts.


Ok you dont think the endevour will work. O well your not going right? So what does it matter? If the volenteers want to risk there lifes let them.

As I said if it all goes wrong it may force NASA or the ESA to get into a race to go a recuse them. A nice little push to get them focused like the moon race.

crazyewok

boohoo

Who in the world that can fix a nuclear reactor with no proper spare

Not sure were your getting the no spare parts bit from. Last time I checked they were sending some supply runs ahead that im pretty sure will have spare parts.


Ok you dont think the endevour will work. O well your not going right? So what does it matter? If the volenteers want to risk there lifes let them.

As I said if it all goes wrong it may force NASA or the ESA to get into a race to go a recuse them. A nice little push to get them focused like the moon race.

Did you read my FULL post? I answered that, you're counting on corporations who can't even keep people alive reliably in shoe factories on Earth to fully plan ahead with spares and ground support for a mission that SHOULD be MANY times bigger than the government funded Apollo missions were staff wise AND still have the goal of turning a profit. Its VERY SAFE to say they will cut corners when ANY opportunity presents itself. To recap myself, the less experienced the 4 man crew is with space travel, science, medical, engineering, etc, the more likely they won't notice these shortcomings when they are briefed/prepped on their roles.

NO ONE is going to "rescue" these guys if they get in trouble. I don't know where you are getting that from.

boohoo


NO ONE is going to "rescue" these guys if they get in trouble. I don't know where you are getting that from.

edit on 10-1-2014 by boohoo because: (no reason given)

NASA and the ESA are allways hungery for more funding. They will kick up a huge stink and fuss about being human and how we have to resucue them or carry on resuplying them when marsone goes bust and with any luck they will land more funding and and it will go on from there.

crazyewok

NASA and the ESA are allways hungery for more funding. They will kick up a huge stink and fuss about being human and how we have to resucue them or carry on resuplying them when marsone goes bust and with any luck they will land more funding and and it will go on from there.

Here are some numbers for you to ponder:

-The space shuttle cost $1.5 billion per flight including government bloat, etc.

-American Idol at its peak brought in $6.5 million per episode.

-To make Avatar the movie it cost $425 million to GROSS $2 billion in revenue.

-The ONE TIME, ONE GUY, Red Bull Stratos Jump cost between $10-30 million to train for, complete, advertise, pay salaries etc to then show on youtube

This Mars trip, Reality TV show, isn't going to generate enough Ad money to send these guys into space under reliable conditions and even if they did at some point get them into space, the equipment would be sub-par/bar-minimum due to budget constraints AND meeting the requirement to "profit" from the endeavor. Remember this is not a publicity stunt to be "written off" like the Red Bull Stratos Jump or sponsored sports teams, they are trying to make money the way the Kardashians and American Idol make money, meaning, rock bottom, low production costs and sky high cost to advertisers buying airtime for maximum viewer numbers.

I don't see any Jeff Bezos types "volunteering" a billion dollars seed money for this project either.

Also since you ignored all of my points these "volunters" are in "space", not bound by earth law, regulations etc, is it legal for the company to maroon then with no support due to dwindling finances? Would anyone go to jail on earth for their abandonment, manslaughter/murder, due to lack of support/resupply?

Like I said, this thing will succeed or fail depending on two things, neither of which is technical.

Finances (not enough sponsorship money - though as this gets closer to happening I think they will find the sponsors they need)

Crew Selection

As I mentioned crew selection is going to probably be the achilles heel here.

One can not do this mission "Hunger Games" style and expect it to be a success.

I got the distinct impression that the people behind this don't understand that the people who make for great reality TV would make for a bad Mars One crew.

Not long after I submitted my video I got a little spooked and felt like if I actually ended up going on to stage 2 or beyond there would be crap which would essentially make me have to 'dumb down' to progress.

I had a nightmare one night which went something like this:

I've jumped through the hoops and succeeded at booking my ticket to the red planet. I'm on the Mars One ship with 3 other "winners" who of course have been chosen for all the wrong reasons. There's unnecessary drama just 30 days out which naturally, for the good of the mission I chose to avoid only to get an encrypted communication from Mars One HQ:

Mars One: "Jade this is Mars One, hey, good job on defusing that little spat between other members of the crew."

Me: "Thanks. That's what I'm here for."

Mars One: "There's just one thing, um, could you perhaps emote a little more?"

Me: "I thought being emotionally balanced was an asset on a mission such as this? If anything, there were too MANY people emoting last week."

Mars One: "Um, yeah well. See that's good TV. People love that stuff. I know your dedication to the mission, we all do and we are extremely proud of all of you who were chosen but see, this is a ratings game. More emoting on your part will mean more sponsors which can help all of you once you achieve planetfall. The more sponsors, the more supplies come on the next mission. You surely understand this?"

Me: "I do understand but with all due respect, if some of us don't keep level heads we may never make planetfall."

Mars One: "Right. That's a perfectly logical response. I guess I should tell you this now. I like you Jade. I want to see you succeed. There's going to be a new program where people get to sponsor each of you individually. That means all your creature comforts will be earned by your Q rating two months prior to Mars Two lifting off. We need to increase your Q rating Jade. A little more emoting wouldn't be the worse thing in the world now would it?"

Me: "Um, no I guess not."

Mars One: "Good, so um, obviously we won't ask anything of you that is outrageous or anything but we were wondering if you could maybe kiss Charles? He's obviously taken a liking to you. Just a quick peck on the cheek, that's all."

Me: "Well that's not why I signed up for this."

Mars One: "Situations and perceptions change and your profile said you were highly adaptable."

Me: "I don't particularly think this is a good idea. Charles is a nice guy and all but I don't really like him in that way. If he likes me in that way then such affection could lead to the wrong impression which could lead to a future disagreement down the road."

Mars One: "Can you just pretend a little? I mean, you're a good flirt if you want to be. You have it in you Jade. Again, its for the ratings and your Q rating."

Me: "I'm a scientist. Not an actor."

Mars One: "On this mission, we ALL are actors."

Then I woke up.

I withdrew my video the very next day.

I'm smart enough to know that I can't stop people from doing whatever dumb things they set their minds to. And for all those folks who place a high value on "spirit of adventure," I'm not going to be a hindrance to them. I'm just expressing my opinion, and saying that at this point a one-way manned trip to Mars is a stunt, like flagpole sitters in the 1920s, or smashing two locomotives together.

The U.S., which had a lot to prove to the Commies in the Cold War, doesn't have the same kind of political motivation to go. And we know that the scientific/economic reasons are pretty shaky. It will likely be left up to the Chinese, who definitely feel like they have something to prove and won't be as squeamish about sending some of their taikonauts to certain doom/glory.

As for a TV show putting average people (not even trained professionals) in a simulated flight to Mars, I don't think it would be any more entertaining than any other reality TV show, where they manufacture drama with a lot of dopey deadlines and "challenges" and edit the show to create heroes and villains. [no eye roll emoticon]

boohoo

crazyewok

NASA and the ESA are allways hungery for more funding. They will kick up a huge stink and fuss about being human and how we have to resucue them or carry on resuplying them when marsone goes bust and with any luck they will land more funding and and it will go on from there.

Here are some numbers for you to ponder:

-The space shuttle cost $1.5 billion per flight including government bloat, etc.

-American Idol at its peak brought in $6.5 million per episode.

-To make Avatar the movie it cost $425 million to GROSS $2 billion in revenue.

You realize that in a mission such as this much of the cost is in terms of equipment and whatnot?

This is not a government run program so no government bloat.

A company like Lockheed Martin probably is going to build their lander on the cheap or for free, just for the publicity. Same with Bigelow Aerospace building their Crew modules, etc. What better ad, than hardware flying the first humans to Mars?

At the cost of Space-X launches, one could do Mars One for Avatar money.

reply to post by JadeStar

Also a lot of program costs if I remember rightly is R&D and Mars one is not going to be using anything revolutionary but rather established Tec from other company's. They dont have to worry about designing launch systems and space craft as its all been done more or less for other projects, all there doing is piggy backing on equipmeny and craft made for other programs.

crazyewok
reply to post by JadeStar

 

Also a lot of program costs if I remember rightly is R&D and Mars one is not going to be using anything revolutionary but rather established Tec from other company's.

Correct. This keeps costs down and reliability high. People think because the mission is revolutionary the technology would be. It's not. Just the application of it is.

They dont have to worry about designing launch systems and space craft as its all been done more or less for other projects,

Right. The only thing that hasn't been done is using Space-X for an interplanetary mission. This will be done on their unmanned precursor missions starting with the unmanned Lockheed Martin lander/rover combo they're sending in 2018. Following this, supplies, communications gear, etc will be dropped on the planet prior to the crew lifting off.

all there doing is piggy backing on equipment and craft made for other programs.

Yes. That's the point many miss. Mars One is not inventing anything new here. This stuff already exists in some form either as hardware or well drawn up plans which have been studied and re-studied for decades.

People really need to read up on this guy. In the very least read his books.


Mars Society Founder Dr. Robert Zubrin Joins Mars One

Robert Zubrin is President of Pioneer Astronautics, an aerospace R&D company located in Lakewood, Colorado. He is also the founder and President of the Mars Society, an international organization dedicated to furthering the exploration and settlement of Mars by both public and private means. Formerly a Staff Engineer at Lockheed Martin Astronautics in Denver, he holds a Masters degree in Aeronautics and Astronautics and a Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering from the University of Washington.

Zubrin is the inventor of several unique concepts for space propulsion and exploration, the author of over 200 published technical and non-technical papers in the field, and was a member of Lockheed Martin’s “scenario development team” charged with developing broad new strategies for space exploration. In that capacity, he was responsible for developing the "Mars Direct" mission plan, a strategy which by using Martian resources, allows a human Mars exploration program to be conducted at a cost 1/8th that previously estimated by NASA.

- See more at: www.mars-one.com...

When I saw Zubrin and Lockheed join the team, I said to myself, "This just got real."

If you're really serious about doing a Mars mission you want Zubrin and a big aerospace company like Lockheed involved.

While the pictures of Mars are fascinating to look at, truth is that this is really a "horrible place" as good as it gets and as far as we know of Mars today.

Likely no life, rocks and sand everywhere, literally deadly temperatures, pressure levels, no oxygen, radiation etc..etc...it seriously is a nightmare if one thinks about it.

I can bet that the "fascination" of being on Mars would not last too long, maybe a week, maybe a month..and once reality about this barren place sets in so will be all kinds of mental problems with the people who have to be there.

For me that would be material for a great SciFi story/movie where at the end everyone becomes crazy and people start to kill each other. I think there are already movies done about exactly that scenario.

JadeStar

boohoo

crazyewok

NASA and the ESA are allways hungery for more funding. They will kick up a huge stink and fuss about being human and how we have to resucue them or carry on resuplying them when marsone goes bust and with any luck they will land more funding and and it will go on from there.

Here are some numbers for you to ponder:

-The space shuttle cost $1.5 billion per flight including government bloat, etc.

-American Idol at its peak brought in $6.5 million per episode.

-To make Avatar the movie it cost $425 million to GROSS $2 billion in revenue.

You realize that in a mission such as this much of the cost is in terms of equipment and whatnot. A company like Lockheed Martin probably is going to build their lander for free, just for the publicity. Same with Bigelow Aerospace building their Crew modules, etc.

At the cost of Space-X launches, one could do Mars One for Avatar money.

edit on 10-1-2014 by JadeStar because: (no reason given)

That wasn't exactly my point, if my above numbers are correct it would take American Idol 333 episodes to bring in the $2 billion gross revenue that Avatar brought in and the $1 billion dollar figure for the space shuttle "per mission" is, whether you agree or not, a good estimate for getting something off earth and into space.

To clarify further, my point is that this Mars reality show would need to be more popular than American Idol has been at its peak to draw in more then $6.5 million per episode. To date, no reality TV show has brought in more gross revenue than Avatar did at $2 billion. Also will anyone give this company $425 million dollars up front for an untested TV entertainment concept/production? Sure James Cameron can get $425 million to make a movie, but who is going to give these guys this much up front? It takes money to make money on the "high tech" side of show business. So with that >$6.5 million per episode and >$2 billion gross and >$425 million seed money from backers/producers/studios to start EVERYTHING with, how much is left to: train the crew, train/hire their LONG TERM support staff, pay for advertising, pay TV executive bonuses, pay TV crews/production staff, space equipment R&D, ship design, space agency permits, legal fees, etc, etc, etc, etc.

Also note the Red Bull Stratos Jump project started in 2005 and was concluded in 2012, basically it was 7 years and $10 to $30 million to recreate and adapt, TESTED and PROVEN, 1970's era military technology for ONE GUY. Not cheap by any means. What do you think a private sector Apollo would cost today to recreate and adapt from proven 1960's era technology?

Lockheed is actually getting the best deal of all, they get to design something cutting edge, as they always do anyway, get derivative technologies and patents out of the R&D, take no risk in testing it with people inside and in the end write it all off as an R&D expense regardless if a government agency buys one down the road or not.

NoRulesAllowed
While the pictures of Mars are fascinating to look at, truth is that this is really a "horrible place" as good as it gets and as far as we know of Mars today.

Likely no life, rocks and sand everywhere, literally deadly temperatures, pressure levels, no oxygen, radiation etc..etc...it seriously is a nightmare if one thinks about it.

I can bet that the "fascination" of being on Mars would not last too long, maybe a week, maybe a month..and once reality about this barren place sets in so will be all kinds of mental problems with the people who have to be there.

Mars is not for everyone. Neither is Antarctica. My ex-bf spent 6 months out of the year in the Antarctic as a technician. First with the Americans. When he was laid off he couldn't wait to get back and now he's going back with the Brits.

People need to get over the "OMG, there is no life, no oxygen, why would you want to go" nonsense. Some people are just different and want to be in places like the Antarctic or perhaps Mars. There are a plethora of valid scientific and cultural reasons to go to Mars which are well established. Which is why the planet keeps drawing us back in.

Well some of us.

You're welcome to amuse yourself with something else like the viral video of some dude picking his nose on Youtube.

boohooThat wasn't exactly my point, if my above numbers are correct it would take American Idol 333 episodes to bring in the $2 billion gross revenue that Avatar brought in and the $1 billion dollar figure for the space shuttle "per mission" is, whether you agree or not, a good estimate for getting something off earth and into space.

Have you done the numbers on the Apollo missions?

You know what they would earn in ad revenue in todays dollars?

Guess. Then times that by a factor of 5 (as evidenced in the amount of interest there is worldwide in the little robot rovers we send to Mars). You're talking World Cup viewing numbers for years.

reply to post by boohoo


I don't think the show is meant to bring in the majority of the money. I'm going to guess the lions share over the long term will be advertising.

You all ready have giants in the aerospace industry wanting to either give stuff for free or at reduced prices. Likely they will do continue to do this, not just for the advertising but also it gives them a brilliant platform to test new technology and concepts. If you look at luxury car companies like lamobugni and burgatti they produce little in the way of profit and some of there flagship cars lose profit but they use these cars to show case the very best for the benefit of the parent company. Aerospace turns over multi billions every year, to build a $200 million module or craft every year or two to allow them to test there very best would be worth it, plus it helps give there compansy that genrate most there money from death and destruction a more peacefull PR friednly face.

Also you do have company's like Coca Cola who I bet will sell there souls to have there brand name on the planet. In fact I can see Coke buying sole ownership given half the chance for the "Red Planet".

reply to post by JadeStar


Also as well as people who will be happy to live permanently there you have people like me who if they got a two way transport system working, which Im pretty usre they will within a decade of the colony being set up (If succefull) I would sell my soul for a 2 or 3 year trip to collect microbiology samples infact offer me a 5 year mission to Enceladus and I would take that as long as I dont have to do any Space EVA's

Crazyewok is right. There are companies and people in aerospace eager to see this mission or ANY human mission to Mars happen. They've been planning for over 40 years so there is going to be a lot of donated equipment, services as this moves forward. The more legitimate it looks, the more people jump on board.

There are already rumors that Boeing may design and build their habitats on the Martian surface. If you want a company that knows something about building pressurized environments as well as radiation shielding you can't go wrong there.

crazyewok
reply to post by JadeStar

 

Also as well as people who will be happy to live permanently there you have people like me who if they got a two way transport system working, which Im pretty usre they will within a decade of the colony being set up (If succefull) I would sell my soul for a 2 or 3 year trip to collect microbiology samples infact offer me a 5 year mission to Enceladus and I would take that as long as I dont have to do any Space EVA's

edit on 10-1-2014 by crazyewok because: (no reason given)

All we need are two Aldrin Cyclers for Mars.

As for Enceladus, the only way to get there fast would be a nuclear or fusion plasma rocket. I'm all for at least a sample return mission. Who knows what is swimming in the water of that moon?!