Isaac Azimov’s 1964 Predictions about 2014...Now, how cool is that ?!?!?

The rate that Asimov was writing and the field he was writing in will give him great odds to get a few things right in the remaining Phanerozoic aeon.

2014 was only a small step into the Asimov universe. He left us a galaxy of predictions and these kind of Asimov prediction threads might pop up for centuries to come, provided ATS has that long a lifespan. Giving him the potential to become the next Nostradamus without the vagueness.


Here is a interesting early interview with our fresh hairy prophet, talking about the predicting process ending with a projection 500 years from then.

reply to post by D.Wolf


Fascinating link, lets just hope that is first fear about a future world (around the 22 min mark) doesn't come to pass.

reply to post by D.Wolf


Cool interview. Thanks for the link !

Scary that both of his visions of the future have a smaller population ratio. Great Mind !!

reply to post by SonoftheSun


I see adjensen and Junkheap probably nailed Futurama as the world fair 2014...

In all seriousness I find it fascinating that individuals can have such foresight and expectation about the future.....

Who are the visionaries of today I wonder....?

Cheers

PDUK

It would be tedious to go through the original article and judge everything Asimov said, but this Buzzfed article has a built in bias. It says, "This is where he got it right." If you just read Buzzfeed, it sounds like he's batting 100%. But read the original article, which appears to have been sponsored by General Electric, to get a sense of what he got wrong as well as the lifting of context of what he really did say. Here's an example:

One thought that occurs to me is that men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better. By 2014, electroluminescent panels will be in common use. Ceilings and walls will glow softly, and in a variety of colors that will change at the touch of a push button.

Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it.

This is shown as a “win” in the post. Sorry, but by and large what Asimov said has not happened. In the same vein he also said this:

There is an underground house at the fair which is a sign of the future. if its windows are not polarized, they can nevertheless alter the "scenery" by changes in lighting. Suburban houses underground, with easily controlled temperature, free from the vicissitudes of weather, with air cleaned and light controlled, should be fairly common.

Seriously? Bzzt. Another failure. He also said not only that appliances would have no electric cords (By and large they do), but also that they would be powered by "radioisotope" batteries, i.e.: Atomic power. This was actually counted as a "win," because someone found some appliances without cords. But in context, it is completely off-base. He guessed solar power farms correctly, but combined it with fusion power and vast solar arrays in space, neither of which have happened.

To Asimov moon colonies were a given by 2014 as well as underwater cities. He nailed laser beam communications, but suggested the lasers would be encased in plastic pipes. His cars traveled on compressed air leaving bridges obsolete, though said vehicles had robot brains, which is nearing the truth. He had moving sidewalks, too, but we've had those since the sixties and they are common in airports today. Down the city streets? Not so much. And there's no doubt he nailed the population issues.

But the point here is that though Asimov deserved his genius label, his prognostications about the future weren't much better than 50/50 and doused with a sense of optimism, at least about technology, that has not proven true. Many of the things he "predicted" actually existed already in 1964, as has been pointed out earlier. Buzzfeed gives a false impression here that isn't realistic either by ignoring his misses and taking his sentences out of context to make them appear better than they actually were, and in that sense I think it does Asimov a disservice.

My Multivac protested my calling him bulby.



I'm scared now...

SonoftheSun
reply to post by D.Wolf

 

Cool interview. Thanks for the link !

Scary that both of his visions of the future have a smaller population ratio. Great Mind !!

If you read (or listen) between the lines, Asimov's smaller population ratio is one of the goals that needs to be met if humanity wants to end up in the second vision. (One cannot carefully husband resources otherwise.) He doesn't go into detail about the catastrophe that will turn New York into the most magnificent ruin in the history of the human race, but I guess it has to do with fighting over resources that are not carefully looked after and getting scarcer by the day.

I think Asimov only picked the black and white spectrum of the vision though. There are lots of grey scales between a total loss and an happyjoyjoy utopia. If not, we are doomed for we're long past the 2k death line and nowhere near solving the problems that were visual on the horizon in the mid 70's.

Luckily it's science fiction and the science of the 70's has progressed into the science off the 10's, leaving the fiction run more and more out of phase with reality. You can see this in most of the classic sf, predicting massive bulby computers (Asimov's mainframe computers called Multivac.) using magnetic coils and punched paper tape.
Another distinctive characteristic is that most characters smoke like chimneys, even aliens.

Scary? No. Strangely attractive? You betcha.

There is an entire TV series dedicated to the predictions of science fiction writers, it's called 'prophets of science fiction' .

It covers the works of Asimov, PKD, Arthur C Clarke and others, Arthur C Clarke for instance proposed the idea of artificial satellites nearly twenty years before Sputnik was launched. And Orson Scott Card wrote about technology in Ender's game that closely resembles real time strategy games.

However these writers most accurate predictions are only coming into fruition now, there is still so much to discover and some of their other works of science fiction could become science fact in the next few decades.

reply to post by SonoftheSun


As odd as it may seem, I've noticed a fair amount of indication that
there are some people in this world who are some how privy to infor-
mation about the future. By what ever vehicle the info comes to them
is of course unclear. But I don't believe that it is all clairvoyance or
even visionary for even a minute.

I'll never forget a very good friend of mine in 1980, as we sat
around a campfire in Yosemite national park. Six or seven of
us, my friend was telling me about a radio show he was listening
to, weren't making predictions. But instead, were saying straight
out. That around twenty twelve, people would have phones on their
wrist like Dick Tracy and that the televisions would be like hang'n a
picture on the wall.

Consider Gene Rodenberry and the communicators on Star Trek.

reply to post by SonoftheSun


Yeah, but where's my flying car?

I'm not sure I want flying cars!

Look at the carnage on roads now, do you want two cars colliding and falling on to your house?

And what about drunk drivers?

And then someone could run out of fuel and crash in to a school!!!

reply to post by SonoftheSun


I talked to my brother on a video phone at the 1964 Worlds Fair in NY. Not much of a prediction and we still don't have video phones in our homes . Skype doesn't count as its on
a computer not a phone.
Oh and I was enjoying Swasons TV dinners in the early sixties as well so again not a big leap.
Swanson introduced the TV dinner in 1953.

Rainbowresidue
reply to post by SonoftheSun

 

That is awesome. Thanks for sharing. So, some predictions do come true.
I'm still waiting for the flying cars though, but alas I don't think that will happen in my lifetime (My own little prediction haha.)

Not much of a prediction if the products already exist when you predict they will exist. Sheesh. Where was his prediction of the fax machine?
Video phones were prototyped as early as the 1920s

Looks pretty accurate to me, we're more advanced regarding most predictions but also a bit delayed when looking at a couple of others. Interesting find!

randyvs
reply to post by SonoftheSun

 

As odd as it may seem, I've noticed a fair amount of indication that
there are some people in this world who are some how privy to infor-
mation about the future. By what ever vehicle the info comes to them
is of course unclear. But I don't believe that it is all clairvoyance or
even visionary for even a minute.

I'll never forget a very good friend of mine in 1980, as we sat
around a campfire in Yosemite national park. Six or seven of
us, my friend was telling me about a radio show he was listening
to, weren't making predictions. But instead, were saying straight
out. That around twenty twelve, people would have phones on their
wrist like Dick Tracy and that the televisions would be like hang'n a
picture on the wall.

Consider Gene Rodenberry and the communicators on Star Trek.

Maxwell Smart had a phone in his shoe in the 60s. Where are the shoe phones LOL. My phone is not on my wrist it's in my purse but still.

reply to post by Lynk3


Why richest scum? Do you think everyone with money is scum ? That's just not true and kind of makes you a bigot no?

reply to post by SonoftheSun


TV dinners were the bomb to kids. We thought it was a special occasion to get them. Dessert was not an everyday thing in the sixties so that Apple crumble or hot brownie was something special. I still love those enchiladas t v dinners.

reply to post by Thecakeisalie


No one can deny that literature has often been the inspiration of technology. It reinforces the idea that if you can think it you can achieve it. There was even a tv show done about technology tbat was inspired by literature but I am too lazy to Google it right now. It was on one of those cable channels science channel or discovery or one of those.

Thecakeisalie
There is an entire TV series dedicated to the predictions of science fiction writers, it's called 'prophets of science fiction' .

It covers the works of Asimov, PKD, Arthur C Clarke and others, Arthur C Clarke for instance proposed the idea of artificial satellites nearly twenty years before Sputnik was launched. And Orson Scott Card wrote about technology in Ender's game that closely resembles real time strategy games.

However these writers most accurate predictions are only coming into fruition now, there is still so much to discover and some of their other works of science fiction could become science fact in the next few decades.

edit on 3-1-2014 by Thecakeisalie because: (no reason given)

yep that's the one I was talking about. Funny after I posted your post was the next one I read .

reply to post by SonoftheSun


Actually gourmet home cooking is enjoying a resurgence right now. With whole channels dedicated to the art of cooking. Julia Child and Graham Kerr (the galloping gourmet) were about all we had as far as cooking shows go even as recently as the 1970s. Look into cookbooks of the day and you will see it was rather boring gastronomically speaking. Our home menues are much more exciting now. People who don't like to or can't cook depend on the frozen food. Them and hungry teenagers coming home from school.
Food Network is bookmarked on my tablet and almost always on my tv. But then I've always loved to cook and I did watch those early cooking shows.