Quake Watch 2014

muzzy
Warning out for NZ, M5+ possible in next few days.
Muzzys Rules says the TTNT energy released on 28th (3) and 29th (5) were at dangerously low levels (below 10), which historically points to an impending M5+.
Could be that M5 that hasn't happened yet in the Eketahuna M6.3 Series, thats another earthquake Rule "Baths Law"

edit on 01000000303014 by muzzy because: one to many s's

Something may have gone wrong at Geonet on the 28th also, only 16 quakes recorded, that is way out of the ordinary too.

edit on 01u303014 by muzzy because: (no reason given)

He was right

reply to post by dreamfox1


No doubt Muzzy will correct me but I don't actually think that was what he was referring to. You are bamboozled by the descriptions from Useless. They say New Zealand but it is South of the Kermedec Islands and not exactly New Zealand. It is about 600km from NZ, or 378 miles for those who still use them, or 5.46 degrees of arc which is quite a bit.

reply to post by Nyiah


No issues with the name. All I was saying is that because it sounded Russia it could be around Kamchatka. The name really means nothing. How many on this thread immediately knew where that was from the name? I bet none!

It is actually more correctly The South Sandwich Islands Region, Southern Antilles. (Southern Antilles being the seismic region.) I do understand the difficulties that people have with where events occur, but Useless is doing nothing to make it any easier, and I do accept that punching Visokoi Island into Google Earth brings it up BUT I don't want to have to open Google Earth for every event. USGS are seismologists (the people reporting these) and in my op0inion have no excuse not to refer to the seismic region or FE area.

Viskoi Island (10) or Viskoi Island (10/153) would at least mean something to me and presumably most seismologists. Ah well never mind. I don't actually care as the Lat and Lon are sufficient most of the time.

Stats for this week. See the geophysical report in my signature. The block of red bottom right is growing which is a sign of the quiet times as that is where quakes are overdue.

Click the image to enlarge

The magnitude 5 converted trend is still flat-lined and M5 activity at a more than decade low.

Yes anything south of Raoul Island is included in the Muzzy Rule. It is not just land above the ocean surface that is part of the seismic area.
However some data that the graph is based on was defective, 19th and 28th didn't have all the events that occurred those days, so showed low energy counts. There was in fact a M5.2 on the 28th (Solander Islands), which the other networks showed as 4.5-4.7mb which I didn't get until yesterday off Geonet, so that one was out of the blue during a steady energy release period.
So the low energy count on the 19th, the day before the Eketahuna 6.3Mw was an accident caused by a defect in the DataPro json download, perhaps thats the mysterious way it works,
we don't want the facts to get in the way of a good prediction do we? LOL

The low count on the 29th (5TTNT) seems to be reliable, with 92 events that day, so the M6.4 S of the Kerms fits in within the timeframe OK.


revised Jan graph

reply to post by St Udio

Turner Radio Network RSS Feed

Perhaps you should be aware of this:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Your source is worthless.

reply to post by Phage


OOPs that thread missed my eyes...thanks

M4.0 - Off the coast of Oregon
2014-02-02 12:36:56 UTC

Another and they are all about the same size. Starting to wonder about these.

Am I wrong or is this that big slide area they say is overdue for a slip where most of these quakes are happening?
earthquaketrack.com...

Magnitude Mw 6.1
Region GREECE
Date time 2014-02-03 03:08:46.0 UTC
Location 38.29 N ; 20.31 E
Depth 10 km
20 km NW of Argostólion, Greece / pop: 9,820 / local time: 05:08:46.0 2014-02-03

www.emsc-csem.org...

Witness location : Lixouri (Greece) (15 km SE from epicenter)
Even now, about 15 minutes from the main quake, the earth is shaking. I think most durable than powerful. All the people wake up. It looked like 6

www.emsc-csem.org...


dammit!. I was going to let that Kefalonia 6.1Mw 26/01/2014 aftershock series go at 3 days, now I'll have to run it through and add the new part from this one.




NOA have;
38.25, 20.37, 12, 5.7ML


Other network estimated locations

(click image for interactive map, opens in new tab/window)

What is up with Alaska. They seem to be having widespread seismic party today.

I don't think I have seen it so busy. All are low level activity but there is a lot going on.

The series to the right near the Yukon border have me concerned.

On the other hand the US West Coast seems quiet. Too quiet perhaps.

P

reply to post by muzzy

Muzzy, given the previous 6 & aftershocks in that region, and now this 6, would it be safe to place a bet on a foreshock sequence? I find myself thinking back on the Santa Cruz foreshock sequence, and wondering if Greece might follow a similar pattern (similar, not exact)

reply to post by Nyiah


there is always a chance that this could develop into a M7+, but it could also just be a couple of 6's on their own. There have recently been quite a few series that stayed at the 6 magnitude e,g. Cook Strait July/August 2013 and some others in 2013 I can't recall right now.
What we need is a 2013 graph showing all the 6+'s. I'll have a look tonight.

reply to post by pheonix358


Yes I seen that uptick on the 2nd too. All pretty low magnitudes though.

Struggling to get readers to go to Global Seismic Archives, 241 visitors ain't many for 2 months work!.
I wonder if it is because on the maps I have all the Networks mixed together, so when you look at an area its saturated with multiple duplicated plots for the same events?
Could be confusing to the layperson as to what is going on there.
If so then an idea I have is to split the map into 4 (or maybe more) smaller maps and do usgs, emsc, nied and another map of the current hotspot that day, or if its serious then for as long as it goes on. May need a couple of hotpot maps if there are a few things going on at once.
Might make it more interesting for readers.
I get sick of having to click multiple links on USGS or EMSC to get the maps they do, so others must do as well.

Have a look at 01.02.2013 as an example.
Or compare to the usual Global maps here
What do you think?

There is so many aftershakes after that big one in Greece. Its still trembling, thankfully magnitude is getting lower and lower. Just look this map.

geophysics.geo.auth.gr...

First there was a

M5.2

- Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia
2014-02-03 20:37:14 UTC

Event Time

2014-02-03 20:37:14 UTC
2014-02-04 05:37:14 UTC+09:00 at epicenter
2014-02-03 12:37:14 UTC-08:00 system time
Location

7.234°S 128.255°E depth=2.3km (1.4mi)

Nearby Cities

329km (204mi) ENE of Dili, East Timor
391km (243mi) S of Ambon, Indonesia
424km (263mi) ENE of Atambua, Indonesia
437km (272mi) S of Amahai, Indonesia
329km (204mi) ENE of Dili, East Timor


earthquake.usgs.gov...

Now theres a

M6.1

- Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia
2014-02-03 22:36:41 UTC

Event Time

2014-02-03 22:36:41 UTC
2014-02-04 07:36:41 UTC+09:00 at epicenter
2014-02-03 14:36:41 UTC-08:00 system time
Location

7.164°S 128.100°E depth=18.1km (11.3mi)

Nearby Cities

318km (198mi) ENE of Dili, East Timor
383km (238mi) S of Ambon, Indonesia
413km (257mi) ENE of Atambua, Indonesia
433km (269mi) SSW of Amahai, Indonesia
318km (198mi) ENE of Dili, East Timor


earthquake.usgs.gov...





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