posted on Dec, 31 2013 @ 09:47 AM
reply to post by tanka418
The only thing you did was copy and paste a wiki article and then took credit for it. You have already said there was no difference in the math used.
Math is math. You can use simple probability or you can use Bayesian probability in both cases. I referenced 3 articles on how Bayesian is used in
The problems are the same with one big difference. There is no way to check your work. One deals with known outcomes, your problem does not. There are
no known outcomes where we find humanoid life on a distant planet.
The only way to interprit this is that it's a guess based non existent data.
You can assign probabilities to unknowns but that is only appropriate when there are known outcomes involved. What you are doing is misinterpreting a
When you play poker, the best players are able to determine other players (unknown) cards to high degree based on other information. This is how the
Bayesian stuff can be applied.
However, the outcomes are known. Your outcomes are not known and may never be known. How you are applying this is incorrect.