A level 1 and level 2 were issued for Ireland, parts of the UK and the North Sea for severe convective wind gusts.
Further West, the warm sector of an outstanding Atlantic cyclone will overspread the British Isles with plentiful rain and 850 hPa winds up to 40 m/s. Scattered to widespread severe wind gusts are expected in the warm sector, where the pressure gradient is strongest, as well as along and behind the cold front, which will swiftly cross Ireland and Scotland after 18 UTC before it will gradually decelerate over England and the North Sea. It will mark the transition from rain to showers and isolated thunderstorms, which can easily mix down 850 hPa winds which are still between 25 and 30 m/s in the postfrontal air mass. A level 1 was drawn for those areas where an involvement of deep convection in the gust generation is expected. The Scottish West coast and the Hebrides were upgraded to a level 2, since they are favourably placed in the left exit region of a very strong jet streak. Hence deeper and more widespread convection, possibly in form of an organized line along the cold front, with an even higher risk of severe wind gusts is anticipated.
Additional subordinate risks are localized flooding (the convective contribution to the high rainfall totals will be small, though) and a brief tornado along the cold front, which is preceded by a tongue of very moist air (2m dewpoints up to 10°C) and strong directional wind shear.
A month ago we were told to get ready for 90 days of harsh cold winter snow with Britain grinding to a halt.
So far, zilch. Its actually quite mild considering this time of year.
Can the pommies not handle a normal 70 mile / hour annual winter storm anymore or an amazing once in a generation storm where 5ft thickness of a 100ft high raised beach cliff gets hit and turns the sea brown 1km out to sea ?
We're still tracking the intense storm heading our way for Christmas Eve. As the graphic shows, latest wind gust predictions suggest that southern and eastern parts of England will see gusts of 60-70kts (70-80mph) overnight into the morning of the 24th, associated with a cold front. A few hours later, the peak gusts transfer to north-western Scotland around the low centre, where gusts could exceed 70kts (80mph). Winds of this strength will be capable of creating disruption, particularly across the south where population density is greater and the incidence of very strong winds is lower