Volcano Watch 2014

Cover up? Heck I am not sure the scientist know enough to even cover up.
I dunno, I keep getting the impression that so much is 'new' or at least never seen before in the region of Bardarbunga, that it's making the scientists buggy. The massive dike likely has them trying to second guess & triple guess themselves into a corner.

The consensus is that something will happen, that should be worrying enough. I kinda think all the fissure activity is making people a bit blase'.

M.

a reply to: Moshpet
Na, you are right whats to cover up?, we all seen it building since the 16th August.
Probably just refreshing the data.
Geonet did this too, after the Christchurch earthquakes in 2011, by Jan 2012 the number of them in the data had doubled on review.
In the mean time I'm going to use the Vatnajokull data, which is Preliminary, and skim it down to 90.01% quality or higher.
en.vedur.is...=table
I've already redone the 7th. map+graph
Steinar is no use he didn't even have the M5.4 on the 7th Sept, and was 110 shy of what the Vatnajokull data shows now.
hard to get a balance, a few of the "experts" keep quoting numbers that include events of less than 25% quality, that never get through examination, skews the overall picture of what is actually happening.

If this thing goes VEI 6 eruption, how much would it affect the UK, France and Germany?

a reply to: Ezio313
Wales, England, France and Germany would suffer greatly.
Ireland would be screwed too.

Scotland however would be just fine

na, just joking. pro independence dig (vote in 9 days)

but it would be bad if the winds are WNW to SE, which they are most of the time.

The eruption looks very impressive during morning hours. Both cameras are running smooth. The weather is quite nice too, I can even see the lava fountains fluctuating in Cam2.


I recorded short video from Cam2, close-up.

a reply to: Thebel

Hi

I captured the virtually identical image this morning, and I wondered if you had noticed the object on cam2 ( i think).

It looks grey, and when I zoom the image I captured, one can see light and dark shading in keeping with the lighting conditions, suggesting an actual aerial object.

What do you think - dirt on the cam lens??

BTW very much appreciate the quality analysis provided by thread contributors, thankyou.

originally posted by: Ezio313
If this thing goes VEI 6 eruption, how much would it affect the UK, France and Germany?

I don't think a VEI 6 is even possible there, only a VEI 5 with the Bundy caledera and it would have no impact on the mentioned countires. It would only be an inconvinience for Iceland. A VEI 5 at Askja could have some impact on air traffic although but that's about it. This is for a gray eruption from one of the volcanos. The difference is linked to the composition of the magma inside both calderas. Ryolith for Askja, mainla basalt for Bundy.

The only real impact and danger is

if the actual ongoing activity we're seeing, rifting from the dyke outside Vatnajokull, evolves to a magma field kind of eruption. We would witness an event equal or bigger than the Laki event, end 18th century. The difference is that today we know the origin and the necessary measures can be taken in time.

originally posted by: korkythecat
a reply to: Thebel

Hi

I captured the virtually identical image this morning, and I wondered if you had noticed the object on cam2 ( i think).

It looks grey, and when I zoom the image I captured, one can see light and dark shading in keeping with the lighting conditions, suggesting an actual aerial object.

What do you think - dirt on the cam lens??

BTW very much appreciate the quality analysis provided by thread contributors, thankyou.

If you mean that black speck between left side and middle, it has been there for couple of days already. Its dirt on camera or something, not actual object. And its only noticeable in specific lighting conditions, so its not visible all the time. Its not currently visible.

Just saw plane passing the eruption site, it was visible in both cam1 and cam2.

UPDATE:

Bárðarbunga subsidence - new data
Mon, 09/08/2014 - 15:30 -- rosa

Surveying of the subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera was done this morning from the civil avaiation aircraft TF-FMS using radar profiling. The results show that the subsidence, first detected on Friday 5 September, has reached 18,5 m, of which 2,5-3 m occurred over the last three days. The events in Bárðarbunga can be called a slow caldera collapse. At this moment the total subsidence is small compared to known caldera collapses elsewhere but it is also impossible to say how long this event will last.

earthice.hi.is...

I sure hope they're right about that, and that there has been little if any new magma intrusion, especially from a mantle derived source. Because what could be happening instead is that new, extremely hot magma has entered the Barda caldera, got stopped by the rock and ice above it- and exited to form the fissures. But it could be slowly melting the transitional cooled rock layers between the magma and, ultimately, the ice on top of the caldera. That might also cause a slow caldera collapse. Except it could also lead to an eruption. And that has been one of the Met Office "scenarios" since pretty much day one.

In that case however, it seems the fissure lava flows will have eased the pressure enough not to cause caldera inflation. How's it supposed to inflate trapped by all that ice? It can't, and not even laterally right under the ice. And lo and behold, that's why it exited where there was no ice- in the fissures on clear land. I dunno, just a thought. But that sukka better start steaming soon, me thinks, or else we get a pressure cooker effect...and kaboom.

I wonder if one reason all that steam has erupted from the fissures is exactly that- glacier ice melt water, turned to steam under the caldera, that found an outlet through the fissures.

And to further support that theory, I could argue that some 1000+ feet thick of solid ice in no way, shape or form would collapse on its own at that thickness UNLESS it had been weakened by melting below it- and down to a pretty darn thin layer. The rock could collapse underneath it, but the thickness of that ice would for sure hold its rigidity and not cause a cauldron, the way it's doing. The more I think about that aspect of the ice thickness, the more it looks like to me that a big kaboom may be coming.

@TrueAmerican: I also think that a big Kaboom could be a high probability, after I have read your sound analysis.

Right...I'm usually over in the woo woo earthquake thread, but I've been watching this thread too for obvious reasons, not least because of the excellent information here. Not that I understand all of it, but I try...

Anyway, TA's got me wondering...if not a VE6, then what might be likely if it does go up? We could well be in the firing line here in Scotland, so I'm concerned. And if the issue is the ice melting from underneath, and pressure building up, would this mean basically a massive steam eruption, rather than smoke and lava? Would it make any difference anyway on this scale? It seems like it's moving and building in a way that isn't going to stop. Now for some woo....I think it will go up in big style. That's what I've thought and felt from the start...she's not done yet. As for a date, I reckon September 19th, since we're going to vote for independence on the 18th. Typical.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Morning TA.
I'm going to disagree with you on one point. (shocking, right--I truly don't intend to always be disagreeable).

IMO, it's entirely possible that the sag in the ice above the deflating caldera is due to gravity, and not heat.
The caldera is 10 km x 7 km: a downward deflection of 18.5 meters over that span seems likely.
Heck, an (imaginary) 10km long steel beam would deflect over that length. And steel has much higher tensile/yield strength than ice.

Looking at the chemical composition of the erupting magma, it seems most likely that any eruption at Bardarbunga will be mostly basaltic. Maybe similar to Grimsvotn in 2011?
But I'm just a student-amateur....just my muddled brains' thoughts.

G'day volcano watchers!
Bird or cam drone? Is the question of the day. (Cam 2)



Cam 1 This cam often makes me wish we could see down the rise.

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And now for all the bits of news

Stench from the hole lava the Norwegian coastline
www.ruv.is...

Norwegian national broadcaster NRK reports that they were aware of sulfuric stench of the coast of Norway these days and runs stink eruption of lava pocket.

Still not advisable to be at the eruption site
www.ruv.is...

"Apart from the risk that the lava floods, strikes the gas after wind directions. Scientists are indicating that alerted and they have repeatedly had to retreat from the lava. "
There should therefore be no one to get involved that do not need to be there. Scientists have determined the work they progress and disappearing from the site.

Artificial crater explosion first detected yesterday
www.ruv.is...

Pseudo-craters formed when lava flows over waterlogged soil as is happening now when lava from a lava pocket and Jökulsá the mountains meet. Some examples of artificial crater in Iceland; including the Rauðhólar near Reykjavik, Skútustaðagígar the lake and Erosion cavity. If artificial craters formed in hollow lava eruption it will be the first time in our times that people can become witnesses.

There is a good picture of the lava encroaching the river in the above article.

Third sigketillinn seen in Dyngjujökli
www.ruv.is...

Another caldera seen in Dyngjujökli. He directed the swarm hallway that runs from the north to the volcano Bárðarbunga methods in blowout lava. This caldera was seen in exploration geoscientists flight yesterday, and two to three kilometers from the edge of the glacier. It is unclear how big he is.
Two other boilers have shown up in the Dyngjujökli, one of ten miles from the edge of the glacier and the other about six miles inside the glacier.
The latter was evaluated for three days about thirty-five feet deep and has been deepening. It is believed the short and ephemeral eruption under the glacier has prevented these boilers have been formed.
Pictured below is the first sigketillinn seen in Dyngjujökli, about ten miles from the edge of the glacier.

More good images in the above.

Radiant (falls) could disappear or put on view
www.ruv.is...

Detained lava lava flow from the blowout on as far it will spread first ear blanks, but then follow Jokulsa the mountains of hardships starting over two kilometers below the confluence of the answer.

When lava comes down representations will clog it and falls Radiant probably disappear or have a view on. This is evident in geological mapping ÍSOR the eruption site. It says that uncertainty is how much lava, but it is likely that it will afflict the confluence of the answer. It will cause a short mæju reservoir ears Jökulsárgöng which will be filled by the testimony, if not immediately then the next winter season.

I think they are discussing Radiant Falls, and how the lava flow will affect it. I think it is a seasonal tourist favorite location.
Good chart/map though.


Possibly ash stops at. (Ash fall)
www.ruv.is...

Shown in web analytics Eastern News that residents Hallormstadur has been devoted to the fine dust on their cars could be volcanic ash. The dust was first seen yesterday morning but it will be fine and brown.

Civil Protection Department has received information on the case but has not been confirmed that there was ash. Then know news to farmers who were Snaefell yesterday saw the color of the snow which they thought could possibly be ash.

30 earthquakes in the night- constant turmoil
www.ruv.is...

Tremor of size 5.2 became Bárðarbunga about seven minutes after one night. The quake is one of the largest earthquake triggers this. Seismic activity is still largely confined to Bárðarbunga north end of the corridor and mountain tails as an indication the IMO.

About 30 earthquakes were detected in the metabolism of the area at night and turbulence have been stabilized. He seemed only to increase the base of the glacier Brúarjökull morning.

Google translate really struggles with Icelandic at times. O.o

A 5.4 tremor at night
www.ruv.is...

Tremor of size 5.4 became Bárðarbunga seven minutes past one in the night, according to data from the American Earth Sciences Centre.
Scientific American Petroleum Institute publishes information about the quake here .
The quake is one of the largest earthquake triggers this. The quake's óyfirfarinn of IMO.

The link mentioned above, points to USGS
earthquake.usgs.gov...

M5.4 - 118km WNW of Hofn, Iceland
2014-09-09 01:07:32 UTC
Earthquake location 64.623°N, 17.516°W


Summary
Location and Magnitude contributed by: USGS National Earthquake Information CenterGeneral

64.623°N, 17.516°W
Depth: 6.8km (4.2mi)
Event Time
2014-09-09 01:07:32 UTC
2014-09-09 01:07:32 UTC+00:00 at epicenter
2014-09-08 19:07:32 UTC-06:00 system time
Location
64.623°N 17.516°W depth=6.8km (4.2mi)

Nearby Cities
118km (73mi) WNW of Hofn, Iceland
121km (75mi) SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
218km (135mi) ENE of Reykjavik, Iceland
219km (136mi) ENE of Kopavogur, Iceland
222km (138mi) ENE of Hafnarfjordur, Iceland

Repeated evacuations due to gas levels
www.ruv.is...

Scientists working at the Holuhraun eruption side have repeatedly had to leave the area, as concentrations of gas have reached dangerous levels. Sudden changes in wind directions have made research there very hazardous. Sulfur dioxide gas has been detected in urban areas in East Iceland.

Between 10 and 20 scientists have been working at the Holuhraun eruptions site since the main fissure opened last week. The research is hazardous, says Thorbjorg Agustsdottir, Phd student in geophysics at the University of Cambridge, who has been managing a net of seismometers near the eruption. "We all have gasmasks and detectors, and we are ready at a moments notice to clear the area."

Every automobile used by scientists at Holuhraun is equipped with oxygen masks, in case anyone succumbs to dangerous levels of CO which can build up in low-lying areas. "This is the primary danger regarding gas emissions," says Agustsdottir. "We always try to place ourselves with the wind blowing towards the lava, but the wind direction can change very suddenly," she says.

More:
If you like twitter, this is the #bardarbunga feed that has most of the images.

twitter.com...

Worth a scroll

via Urska Demsar ‏@udemsar 36m
#Bardarbunga playing to become Van Gogh. Amazing photos Via @gislio Photos from phototours.is... pic.twitter.com/lyWaH52POP
phototours.is... pic.twitter.com/lyWaH52POP" target='_blank' class='tabOff'/>

A collection of videos here
www.upinthesky.nl...

Odd solar flare
www.youtube.com...
I only mention it as some think that the Sun's solar flares etc have an impact on quakes.
Evidently this will be a glancing blow to the Earth in a few days too.
(Not my personal belief, but for completeness' sake....)

Not my image, no date as to when it was:
via Penthouse Sidebar ‏@drfessel 2h
Another tornado from Iceland volcanic eruption. s249.photobucket.com... … #bardarbunga


1783 Eruption
www.youtube.com...

Twisters over the lava field
via Univ. of Iceland ‏@uni_iceland 4h
#Twisters seen over the new lava field in #Holuhraun Credit: William Moreland #Bardarbunga pic.twitter.com/6N2vmdEXns


Laki eruption
BBC Timeline Killer Cloud -Laki eruption Iceland
www.youtube.com...

Yesterday we did see a change, instead of greyish smoke it was very dark and red brown, at first i thought that this was optical illusion because of thick clouds which block out the sunlight, but today we can see the same brown reddish color in the sky.
Not only that, the magma seem to have changed as well, look at cam 2, it seems to have a more explosive karakter than before.
Yesterday there was an increase in tremor at VON which is close to Bardarbunga, which to me seems to be linked to an increase of flowing water.
Today the same is seen at KSK which is on the other side of the glacier, because other stations seem unaffected i think this is linked to more water flowing water.
Look at this map for the stations.

well the cameras went offline

None of the MILA cams seem to be up I think whomever is doing their web redesign broke the cams feature.
It may take a bit for them to sort it out.

*Grumble*

M.

Evidently it is server maintenance.
via Per-Arne Bjerka ‏@darkspace76_msk 35s
@Mosh_Lives the server maintaining the cams are down. all cams on site is down atm. they will be back soon

While the cams are down, you can watch these videos from

Uploads from Simon Redfern
www.youtube.com...

He is one of the folks studying the volcano up close.

M.

Third cauldron spotted in Dyngjujokull

One more cauldron (depression) has been seen in the Dyngjujokull outlet glacier, in line with the magma intrusion which is feeding the lava eruption in Holuhraun. The size of this cauldron has not been estimated yet. It was spotted Sunday, during a surveillance flight over the glacier.


Two other cauldrons have been seen; one of them 6 kilometres from the margin of Dyngjujökull, the other 10 kilometers from the margin. All three are in line with the dike intrusion in the bedrock beneath the glacier.

They are thought to have formed due to small, shortlived subglacial eruptions; so small that no increased meltwater has been detected in outlet rivers, such as the Jokulsa a Fjollum glacial river.

Here is my collection for 09092014 before they went down. 09092014 web cam images
Yes I did get up at 3am for a few minutes, then went back to sleep.
I have changed the naming of the images, it was getting too confusing, got one wcam2 image mixed up in the wcam1 block on 08082014, because I had named it wrong.
today's effort went smoothly with the new naming, all went on first post without having to re-edit.

Bit of a flareup at 09092014-05:36:23 on wcam2

Times are UTC (same as IST)