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Fantasy Football and the D20 - Coping With Loss

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posted on Dec, 16 2013 @ 08:31 PM
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I invest too much time trying to keep up with all the latest news for fantasy football. I love competition, and I always play to win. But fantasy football, I just can't seem to crack the top of the leagues I'm in. Starting the wrong guy and giving up 30 pts. Dropping the guy who later is a bust-out player. Drafting Ray Rice. I was getting pretty frustrated with my bad picks, when I came up with a way to deal with it.



What you're getting in a player isn't a player, it's a D20. A 20-sided dice. A roll of the dice. The distribution of the points vary from player to player. A stud might have 25, 24, 23, etc, but still has a 0, a 5, a 7... Varied distribution based on the potential for a player. A sleeper might have a 0, 0,0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, etc... then 15, 20.

In any case, this doesn't help my game much, but it helps me feel better about losing. Instead of tragic disappointment over my picks, I can say it was an unlucky roll of the dice, which is a lot easier to feel meh about.




posted on Dec, 17 2013 @ 10:37 AM
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reply to post by TwoTonTommy
 


Fantasy Football is difficult, you need a good draft strategy, smart moves, and some luck with injuries. I lost my 1st 2nd and 3rd rd picks in one league and still went 9-4 and just won to get into the championship because I made solid waiver pickups.

I make money almost every year playing fantasy football. I got into 5 paid leagues this year. I'm in two Superbowls next week and in first place in a total points for the league year which is a $200 buy in which I'm the defending champion. First pays $1100. I believe that an all points league is the best because it shows true ownership over the course of an entire season, not just one bad week and it costs you big. I've only had one season where I didn't break even.

It seems to me your draft strategy is either not adaptive to the rules that are in place or you are just a weekend warrior that likes to get together with buddies and get a team. To make money you have to know how to work the waiver wire, make trades, and start optimal players based on matchups, targets, snap ct, turf or grass, etc.

Let me know if you are in a standard scoring league or PPR. Do QB's get 4 pts for TD or 6. Bonus pts for 100 yds etc. These rules have a huge effect on which rds to target which positions. If you're open to it, i'll be glad to give any advice so next year you can make it into the championship. The money is always great, but the bragging rights over buddies is even better.

Also there are usually 2 guys in every league that never make the playoffs or win money. they are called donators and hopefully this isn't you but every league has these 2 players.



posted on Dec, 17 2013 @ 11:03 AM
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NONPOINT21
reply to post by TwoTonTommy
 


Fantasy Football is difficult, you need a good draft strategy, smart moves, and some luck with injuries. I lost my 1st 2nd and 3rd rd picks in one league and still went 9-4 and just won to get into the championship because I made solid waiver pickups.

I make money almost every year playing fantasy football. I got into 5 paid leagues this year. I'm in two Superbowls next week and in first place in a total points for the league year which is a $200 buy in which I'm the defending champion. First pays $1100. I believe that an all points league is the best because it shows true ownership over the course of an entire season, not just one bad week and it costs you big. I've only had one season where I didn't break even.

It seems to me your draft strategy is either not adaptive to the rules that are in place or you are just a weekend warrior that likes to get together with buddies and get a team. To make money you have to know how to work the waiver wire, make trades, and start optimal players based on matchups, targets, snap ct, turf or grass, etc.

Let me know if you are in a standard scoring league or PPR. Do QB's get 4 pts for TD or 6. Bonus pts for 100 yds etc. These rules have a huge effect on which rds to target which positions. If you're open to it, i'll be glad to give any advice so next year you can make it into the championship. The money is always great, but the bragging rights over buddies is even better.

Also there are usually 2 guys in every league that never make the playoffs or win money. they are called donators and hopefully this isn't you but every league has these 2 players.


Thanks for the advice. I have been a serious player for 10 years, and do a lot of homework. I'm usually not in PPR. Some leagues are 4 pt QB TD's, others are 6. I don't think I have a strategy problem - my problem seems to be bad luck.

For instance - I drafted Colin Kapernick (mistake), and had a rough start to the season. Finally, I benched him for Nick Foles - and Nick Foles put up like 3 pts and Kapernick had like 20. Foles got a concussion, and I dropped him. I put Kapernick back in, and he gave me squat, while Foles put up 30 pts.

I listen to Matthew Berry alot, and that might be part of my problem. He gets it wrong an awful lot. I also make a ton of waiver moves, always trying to get the best potential on my bench, but it has meant that I end up dropping someone who later turns out to be great. (I dropped Alfred Morris last year just before he broke out.)

I do have some good skills, I think. I drafted Knowshon Moreno & Fred Jackson late in all my drafts, I got Julius Thomas, etc. Last year I drafted Aaron Rogers, and he killed me the second half of the season. That's why I get so frustrated --- I feel like I should be really good, but seem to always be benching the wrong guy.

I played Ray Rice all year, and when I benched him, he put up over 20 pts.

I guess I was just trying to emphasize to myself that there's as much luck as skill involved.

I did make the Superbowl this year in my family league (no money), so at least I have that to look forward to.



posted on Dec, 17 2013 @ 11:20 AM
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reply to post by TwoTonTommy
 


Yea luck definitely plays a large role. Berry is a fool, he's just like you or me a player and his opinion is just that. There are no experts whatsoever except for the baseball guy that created and algorithm haha.

Kapernick is on a running team and although he runs some, it's not enough to make up for the amount of clock that eaten up by their style of play. Week 1 had you loving him and since its been mediocre. The thing with QB's after the top 3 or 4 the next 10 are almost the same. They all end up with similar numbers at the end of the year.

I would recommend getting into an all points league for the year. This way you take some of the luck out of the equation when dealing with playoffs and a one week hero. you know the guy that is the 6 seed at 7-6 and scores 175, its inevitable every year lol.

Running backs were pretty much terrible up until about week 10 this year except for Forte and McCoy who were consistent, I've never seen a start like that for RB's, you know its bad when the first back to back 100 yd rusher was Matthews.

sounds to me like you know what you're doing. I like the all pts ppr league. I had first pick and went Manning which got me a lot of heat but we both know who got last laugh on that one, then on wrap took Graham and Dez. In a PPR having the number 1 TE is crucial. I get almost double the next best guy at the position over the year. I got lucky as RB's were not very good this year and I've traded all the RBS I originally drafted. I now have Stacy -traded Bryant for. Picked up Andre Brown Vereen and Rashard Jennings

I'll probably lose in both superbowls but 2nd still makes a decent chunk and the $1100 is the real payday with my all points league, i'll be back to back champ. Been in 3 years and went 2nd 1st 1st.

Another cool thing to do is get 6 guys and do a playoff fantasy team. you draft two of each possession since there are 12 teams. winner takes all pretty cool setup because you draft players based on how far you think they will go. lots of strategy

Good Luck man.



posted on Dec, 17 2013 @ 12:06 PM
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reply to post by NONPOINT21
 


I've never tried a straight up points league. That's a good idea, eliminate those weeks where you would've beaten everyone else in the league except they guy you're playing. I'm also playing in some tough leagues with some good players, so that has something to do with it too. Thx for the advice. And you're right, Berry is a moron, I don't know why I even listen to him.




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