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Global-warming ‘proof’ is evaporating

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posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 11:28 AM
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Kali74
What predictions have been incorrect?


What predictions were accurate?

If you want to see incorrect, read a daily paper.

I'm still waiting on my record setting summer temperatures from 2000....even still have my tiki torches ready. My location was slated to become waterfront and warm...it was going to be awesome!

I'm also still waiting on my record setting winters, but they have changed their minds on what that will mean...every year...and so far we haven't deviated more then 2% from the mean...both up and down...and, ironically, I guess, opposite of what they have predicted (they predict brutal, it is slightly more temperate, they predict temperate, slightly cooler, etc).

Hell, this year, I got to listen (all summer) to how bad this coming winter would be...currently,bang on historical average, dating back to the 1800's.



edit on 5-12-2013 by peck420 because: (no reason given)




posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 11:32 AM
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Krakatoa

nixie_nox

Everything points to normal cycles. Nature doing it's thing.


The one question that skeptics never answer...

What drives the natural cycles?



The Sun and orbit of the Earth.

There, answered. Next question?


If you were explaining it to preschoolers, you are off to the start.

And it isn't the Sun, it is the Earth's position to the Sun that will effect climate. The orbital changes of Earth determine how much Sun light is reaching the Earth. Obliquity (the tilt of Earth's axis toward the Sun) and precession (the wobble of Earth's axis toward and away from the Sun) also determine how much Sun reaches the planet.

Perihelion is when the cycles have the northern hemisphere land mass pointed towards the Sun, causing warming. And the opposite is Aphelion.

Orbital forcing slowly affects not only a slow change to Earth's orbit, but the axis as well. Even affecting the axial precession of the Earth. When axial precession is affected causing fall and winter to be longer in the northern hemisphere, that is the trigger for an ice age.

Other factors determining the Earth's climate is the Moon, Earth's rotation, even the location of the continents. The moon's tidal effect keeps Earth's axis pretty regular. Or it would be a lot more chaotic. Relation to other planets also determine orbital forcing.

When orbital forcing is putting the Earth in a perihelion cycle, which causes the orbit to be elliptical, it puts the Earth closer to the Sun, causing warming. This is known as the Eccentricity Cycle. When the Earth starts back on a more circular orbit, the Earth starts to cool and the ice age can start. This is known as the Obliquity Cycle.

The layman's term is "natural cycle" which is long term climate change due to these forces, the periods between ice ages and warming periods.

So the natural cycle, has become the cop out term for skeptics even though they don't understand it, and how it works.

They forget the cycle part, which means a regular series of events that are regularly repeated in the same order.

The natural cycle goes through a 100,000 year progression. The solar system, runs like clock work. If it didn't, we would be dead.

So the only way for the climate to not go in a natural cycle is due to external forcing. Something causes it to change. The scientists understand this cycle very well. It isn't a mystery.

Now what does all this mean to you as a skeptic?

The Earth is on a decreasing trend in Obliquity Cycle. The Earth should be getting cooler, not warmer.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 11:33 AM
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reply to post by nixie_nox
 

it may of been the most powerfull on record..but how much in the entire history of mankind have we been recording the data..100yrs maybee?..could of been many just as powerfull or more before we devised means of recording the data.
dont get me wrong we need to work on controlling pollution but i feel like all this carbon credit bs is just that bs..another scam/ideology that makes people like al gore rich, who i will add is a giant hypocrite



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 11:40 AM
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ketsuko
reply to post by nixie_nox
 

You might remember that it was observed that all the planets in our solar system also displayed warmer climates, too?


This is the most hilarious bunk of all. Seriously? Who observed all these temperatures on all these planets?

Now, try to use some common sense here....ok?

Earth, at its closest, is .98 AU from the Sun.

Neptune, at its closest, is 29.8 AU from the Sun.

If the Sun was "warming up" which is bunk in itself, and it warmed up enough to heat Neptune, the Earth would be freaking jerky.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 11:44 AM
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nixie_nox
So the natural cycle, has become the cop out term for skeptics even though they don't understand it, and how it works.


And you feel that this is a fair statement. Even in light of all the predictions and changes to the data for all the models that predicted the end as we know it very soon?

I certainly don't claim to "know", but I understand that it has been changing, and it will continue to change.

The immediate fear seems to have run it's course. I think a new angle for scaremongering is needed.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 11:56 AM
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reply to post by peck420
 


No. Show us the predictions from the actual scientists, maybe the IPCC? Any of the scientists that worked with the IPCC? Show us the actual predictions, not what denier blogs said the predictions were in order for them to be false and the predictors made to look like fools.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 12:05 PM
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vonclod
reply to post by nixie_nox
 

it may of been the most powerfull on record..but how much in the entire history of mankind have we been recording the data..100yrs maybee?..could of been many just as powerfull or more before we devised means of recording the data.
dont get me wrong we need to work on controlling pollution but i feel like all this carbon credit bs is just that bs..another scam/ideology that makes people like al gore rich, who i will add is a giant hypocrite



Nothing changes on ATS, we are still going down the silly skeptic checklist.

There are other reliable ways to measure data than with a thermometer. Borehole measurements, tree rings, stalagmites, sediment, coral and a bunch of others. They can find very specific data with these variations.

The same ways we know how long ago the Grand Canyon was carved out, when the last ice age was, the medieval warming period, that there was a hot period during the Holocene era, and so on.

Using this argument, you then can't claim that this wasn't one of the worst hurricanes in recent years, because you don't know. You can't debunk one without debunking them all.

As for the carbon credit excuse:

You say we should control pollution, yet use carbon credits as an excuse to make money and not believe in GW. Yet that is what carbon credits do, control pollution.

it works like a stock market, a lot of people stand to make money off it it, not Al Gore.

It is for investors to buy, sell, and trade. Not just the government.

Even if the government did make money off it, it will still pale in comparison to the cost of disasters caused by GW. 2012 was a record year for disasters costing the US $112 BILLION dollars.

NO amount of carbon credits would ever offset that cost. And if GW continues to get worse, the costs could skyrocket.
It is actually in the government's best interest to NOT have GW. So no, there is no incentive to create a scam.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 12:09 PM
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network dude

nixie_nox
So the natural cycle, has become the cop out term for skeptics even though they don't understand it, and how it works.


And you feel that this is a fair statement. Even in light of all the predictions and changes to the data for all the models that predicted the end as we know it very soon?

I certainly don't claim to "know", but I understand that it has been changing, and it will continue to change.

The immediate fear seems to have run it's course. I think a new angle for scaremongering is needed.


Entirely fair, apparently you didn't read it or comprehend it. Yet you still make a statement about scaremongering.

How pathetic.

Right now we are in a natural cycle where the Earth should be cooling, not warming up, and warming up at breakneck speed.

If you don't know "HOW" things are changing, then you should be responsible enough to remove yourself from the conversation until you DO know how it works, instead of trying to hurt progress by denying it.

I have never seen anything so irresponsible in my life.

" I don't know whats going on, but I don't believe it, derp derp derp"



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 12:14 PM
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reply to post by nixie_nox
 


Pathetic? Nice. why don't you run off the the IPCC and ask for a job. It seems they don't know what's going to happen either, but it's great that YOU DO.
Linky

Perhaps you can start by showing them where and how they went wrong here.



Good luck with all that sport.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 12:43 PM
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Kali74
No. Show us the predictions from the actual scientists, maybe the IPCC? Any of the scientists that worked with the IPCC? Show us the actual predictions, not what denier blogs said the predictions were in order for them to be false and the predictors made to look like fools.


Here is a line found in almost every single IPCC report (feel free to search it when you are bored):


although scientific understanding of these effects is very low.


This particular instance came from the Climate Change 2007 report (6.4.1.3).

IPCC openly admits that we know very little, but you won't...interesting.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 01:06 PM
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peck420

Kali74
No. Show us the predictions from the actual scientists, maybe the IPCC? Any of the scientists that worked with the IPCC? Show us the actual predictions, not what denier blogs said the predictions were in order for them to be false and the predictors made to look like fools.


Here is a line found in almost every single IPCC report (feel free to search it when you are bored):


although scientific understanding of these effects is very low.


This particular instance came from the Climate Change 2007 report (6.4.1.3).

IPCC openly admits that we know very little, but you won't...interesting.



Wow. Just wow.

This has to be the most desperate, disingenuous act, act of trying to win by losing, I have seen by a skeptic yet.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 01:14 PM
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network dude
reply to post by nixie_nox
 


Pathetic? Nice. why don't you run off the the IPCC and ask for a job. It seems they don't know what's going to happen either, but it's great that YOU DO.
Linky

Perhaps you can start by showing them where and how they went wrong here.



Good luck with all that sport.


Your arguments wouldn't be so grade school if you actually read something that isn't by other skeptics, whom I have proven are always wrong.

Secondly, stop going down the skeptic check list and educate yourself.

Third, don't use other skeptic sites for a source that can't even spell.

Fourth, it is a sign of desperation to completely ignore all the information I gave you, for you to go Here: decipher this.

Lastly, don't offend me by providing a graph that was made up by another skeptic.




The WUWT blog has a post by David Whitehouse (of the “Global Warming Policy Foundation”) discussing global temperature data. It features this graph from the leaked copy of the not-yet-completed 5th assessment report (AR5) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change):


Fake Skeptic Draws Fake Graph


Linky

edit on 5-12-2013 by nixie_nox because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 01:15 PM
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nixie_nox

Wow. Just wow.

This has to be the most desperate, disingenuous act, act of trying to win by losing, I have seen by a skeptic yet.


Wow, just wow...another disingenuous attempt to avoid actual data and research with name calling!

You are a shinning example of why, after 30 years, climate change is still not taken seriously.

Well done!



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 01:24 PM
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reply to post by nixie_nox
 


You make me smile. I should not look at sources that discredit global warming for my information. I should be looking at your sites. The ones that keep changing the story. Yep, I'll remember that. Perhaps I'll adopt your strategy of name calling when logical arguments fail. Perhaps not.

But either way, in 20-30 years, if we all haven't been burned to a crisp, or drowned by the rising seas, if perhaps all is much like it has always been, you can look back here and wonder how your arrogance did you so wrong. TTFN.
edit on 5-12-2013 by network dude because: Beating a dead horse will make you tired, and the horse tender.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 01:28 PM
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reply to post by peck420
 


...

Are you serious with this?

You are quoting part of a sentence.
edit on 12/5/2013 by Kali74 because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 01:36 PM
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peck420

nixie_nox

Wow. Just wow.

This has to be the most desperate, disingenuous act, act of trying to win by losing, I have seen by a skeptic yet.


Wow, just wow...another disingenuous attempt to avoid actual data and research with name calling!

You are a shinning example of why, after 30 years, climate change is still not taken seriously.

Well done!




Nothing worse than a lazy conspiracy theorist.

Especially one that can't prove their point and when called on it, just resorts to an ad hominem attack.

" I know you are but what am I?"

You made a statement that predictions haven't come true. Now a page later, you still can't provide the burden of proof.

If you are going to take the serious and grave stance that the whole planet isn't in trouble, you should have the knowledge to back your case.

The burden of proof if is on you to prove your statement. Instead, you quote a very benign statement in a large report and told the challenger to "find it herself". What a poor, poor form of discussion.

Which tells us nothing other than, you have no idea what you are talking about, you have no proof to back up your statements, when called on it, you resort to an ad hominem attack.

If you have a point to make, you should have the knowledge to back it up. If you don't, then go educate yourself, and shut up until you know what you are talking about.

Because at this point, you are nothing but a troll.

The only people who are not taken seriously is you. And THAT, you have given us proof of.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 02:00 PM
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There were few hurricanes this season but the strength/enormity of the storms are increasing.Even the tornado in Oklahoma was as incredible size.
So something is changing...Living in Northern Ontario,Canada..am seeing animals migrating further south ie. bears,moose,elk.The animals know something is up,so wake up and pay attention.Is it climate change ? or something else going on? Regardless I encourage everyone to learn basic homesteading skills,have alternate source of heat for cooking,comfort.Be prepared for the worse .
I have had a horrific push/strive for getting back to basics...doesn't matter where you live urban,rural do what you can to prepare...stock a full pantry etc. This is not a Y2K hoax type thing..the writing is on the wall..please please do not ignore it ...



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 02:04 PM
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reply to post by nixie_nox
 


Geeze, you sure seem to take this all personally, and your replies sure get personal. If you're right, why not just be content that you are, and know that when he's treading water in his living room he'll realize you were.

Not that I know if global warming is happening or not...I figure I'll wait and see and just do what little I can to try to reduce the mass amounts of pollution that nearby (to me) industries spew out. I'm with the earlier poster on that.



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 02:09 PM
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reply to post by peck420
 


When I look at all the postings here I have to scratch my head..Do you all think NASA etc. are all looking at other planets for the sheer fun and scientific data? Earth is on a timeline ...the human race will be wiped out if a new habitable planet isn't found ...Think folks ...Billions,billions of dollars being spent ...



posted on Dec, 5 2013 @ 11:10 PM
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i didn't know we were supposed to post opinion articles. i mean, i guess it's fine but why post someone elses opinion article? just type out your own opinion. or... "hey, i like this guys opinion. lets discuss it" instead of posting it like it's some sort of new revelation.



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