Major Stock Market Crash In January

reply to post by Dustytoad


I would agree with you..will be hard to make it on your own...it doesn't have to be family..just a few core good friends like minded and with skills & brains to make it thru the mess that is on its way.Worry is useless..action will save ...learn everything you can and practise it...Jesus will not be saving us ..it will be up to us to be prepared...please please take heed

Agent67Canada
reply to post by Dustytoad

 

Jesus will not be saving us ..it will be up to us to be prepared...please please take heed

Twas a joke as noted by the words just kidding following it. I have dark scorpio humor.

But yes to the rest of it.. I'm late to the game and ill prepared as of now. The eternal procrastinator.

As with all these prognostications, there's usually a source. I think this was recently covered by Lindsey Williams, and about the same time frame. If Iran is allowed to sell oil, and the price goes down, the world will recover, if not, same same.
I'v heard so many predictions, and the only ones that came close were Lindsey's. Of course that was for-knowledge and had little to do with all the prophets this last little while. Ask Sylvia Brown.

Bassago
reply to post by Dianec

 

We would never see another Great Depression due to Monopoly money and bail outs. So what difference does it make anymore. The risk is always there but it wouldn't be as dire as back then - lessons were learned. Interesting how it looks like that period of time though.

Not sure that I believe that. If a stock market crash happens and causes a cascade collapse of the derivative markets nothing will prevent a world wide depression. As it stands the derivatives are now larger than the GDP for the entire planet, about $1.2 quadrillion. A quadrillion is a big number: 1,000 times a trillion..

This. I don't know how much faith I put in the OP's chart, you can find a lot of similar trendlines throughout history. However the derivatives market will be what causes a worldwide collapse sooner or later. It's totally unregulated and has more money tied up in it than the GDP of every country on earth combined. When it blows up the only possible recovery is a brand new monetary system created either as fiat or backed by confiscated goods.

reply to post by Aazadan


Honestly I don't put a lot of faith in the chart either but it was interesting. It's going to be the derivatives that take everyone out, that I'm almost 100% sure of. I think that's what caused the government panic that led to the banker bailouts as well and now things are much worse.

Bassago
reply to post by Aazadan

 

Honestly I don't put a lot of faith in the chart either but it was interesting. It's going to be the derivatives that take everyone out, that I'm almost 100% sure of. I think that's what caused the government panic that led to the banker bailouts as well and now things are much worse.

We seem to be in agreement then. I don't think anyone knows what to do about derivatives. They're so large that any protective action taken against them to try and regulate it and minimize the damage could easily spark the crash in the first place. However we know for a fact that doing nothing will eventually lead to a crash as well.

I see it like this, by trying to regulate the market right now we're 80% likely to spark a worldwide collapse the instant it's attempted before the regulations are even written and able to go into place. No politician wants to be the guy in office when that happens.

By not doing anything we're 100% likely to have that worldwide collapse but it can be pushed 1, 2, 5, or maybe even 20 years down the road giving everyone a few more good years and putting some new guy in charge when it all goes to hell.

To be perfectly honest I'm not sure what the better approach is. If it's going to happen I think we would all prefer to get it over with as soon as possible, but pushing the collapse further down the road creates the opportunity for technological advancement that can limit the impact of the collapse.

On the subject of the banker bailouts, there is no doubt in my mind that they used the derivative market (as well as some others, but this is the big one) as a blackmail tool to be given over a trillion dollars at this point.

Just throwing down a few cents that a friend shared this with me after I sent him a link to this thread.

"You had a bear market running into 1928 bear means resting stagnant, no growth, no big money being poured into it. As you can see the index went from 13200 to 17300 in a year's time which means bullish all in investing. When you see a bull market as you are today look from 09 to today bail outs came as dow was at 7800 now close to 16.000.

The last 24 months have been most bullish due to QE's 85 billion a month in fiat. Since the Fed is so invested in the market thus the big money comes out because the investors feel no true worries if over-investment incurs. With todays central economic planning the great depression of '29 would look much different and collapse is unlikely till late this year or next if you get into other factors.

Honestly, all of this is unprecedented. No hammer from the past can hit this nail entirely."

Bassago
reply to post by Aazadan

 

Honestly I don't put a lot of faith in the chart either but it was interesting. It's going to be the derivatives that take everyone out, that I'm almost 100% sure of. I think that's what caused the government panic that led to the banker bailouts as well and now things are much worse.

And they called us heartless and evil when we said we should let it all go down and take our bad medicine then. They didn't listen when we said not letting it happen will only make it magnitudes of worse later on.

Now we're so screwed it's not even funny and getting even less so every passing day.

ketsuko

Bassago
reply to post by Aazadan

 

Honestly I don't put a lot of faith in the chart either but it was interesting. It's going to be the derivatives that take everyone out, that I'm almost 100% sure of. I think that's what caused the government panic that led to the banker bailouts as well and now things are much worse.

And they called us heartless and evil when we said we should let it all go down and take our bad medicine then. They didn't listen when we said not letting it happen will only make it magnitudes of worse later on.

Now we're so screwed it's not even funny and getting even less so every passing day.

On one hand that's true, we just make the problem bigger and everything gets worse. On the other hand if we have total global collapse it's effectively one giant reset button, a quality difference of 10-15% in either direction (which is what we would have had in 2008 vs now) wouldn't change anything to a significant degree because either way there would be nothing left. Even by 2008 we had long since passed the point where we could do something about this with a moderate degree of pain. From what I've read, sometime around 1999 seems to have been our point of no return, past that point the derivatives market has surpassed the total wealth in the world. In 2002 Warren Buffet called it a financial weapon of mass destruction and that things were already too late at that point.

The more I think about it the more I find myself on the side of trying to prolong the inevitable in the hopes of a technological solution. Maybe Bitcoins are that solution.

reply to post by Aazadan


The older I get, the less chance I have of ever seeing daylight on the other side, and the harder it will be to see me and mine through it.

I'd rather we did it then. The longer we wait, the worse it will be for all kinds of reasons.

Yellen is going to print more than Bernanke...if you can believe that but heard it's at least a year out if not longer.

It's all fiction at this point but 5% of the people own 85% of the stocks & those people are greedy so it could go on for a long time maybe when its 1% of the people own 99% of the stocks.

Bassago
reply to post by Snarl

 

If our economy collapses we're taking most of the world along for the ride.

I believe you're right. If we kick off the collapse of the derivative markets the entire planet is going to be hosed. Just a matter of time now. Look at the market wobble when the Fed merely hinted at tapering.

With all respect I dont think so. If the USA fails in this manner the rest of the world will be just fine. The US is only a small piece of the planet in reality. For instance if an alien professor wants to study an earthling it wont be an American being picked to represent this planet.

Canada would absorb a bunch of the USA if the country totally failed. Then a portion of Americans will see what it is to truly be free and see a doctor without a bill. Put your money in CDN resources. The whole USA may be dissolved on purpose. Can you imagine China and Canada saying, "where is my money the USA owes me?" "Oh sorry that country doesnt exist anymore, suck it up" Boom baby 3 pointer
And where did all that money go? hahahahaha fat bellied bankers eating pork legs

If you really think it's gonna crash (and it most certainly will eventually) you can always sell some put options.

reply to post by WormwoodSquirm

If the USA fails in this manner the rest of the world will be just fine. The US is only a small piece of the planet in reality.

Perhaps in the past that was true but now, I have grave doubts. Global mega-corporations and the interconnected central banks would wreck havoc on the EU and the US. Peripheral countries in Asia and Africa would also suffer. China,Japan, Malaysia and South Korea would lose a lot of their export markets. That's just a few. Canada may indeed fair better than many.

Bassago
reply to post by WormwoodSquirm

 

If the USA fails in this manner the rest of the world will be just fine. The US is only a small piece of the planet in reality.

Perhaps in the past that was true but now, I have grave doubts. Global mega-corporations and the interconnected central banks would wreck havoc on the EU and the US. Peripheral countries in Asia and Africa would also suffer. China,Japan, Malaysia and South Korea would lose a lot of their export markets. That's just a few. Canada may indeed fair better than many.

Exactly - if the US folds - China is going down as well & they know it.

Wormwood have you been to a Walmart lately? I haven't but it says "Made in China" - have you bought an IPod, IPhone, ITablet - China, China, China. They are building Ghost Cities over there - just to build so their peasants have a job & not have civil unrest.

Predicting stock markets is about as believable a form of soothsaying as Bible Code prognostication ― accurate augury is only ever made after the fact.

WormwoodSquirm

Bassago
reply to post by Snarl

 

If our economy collapses we're taking most of the world along for the ride.

I believe you're right. If we kick off the collapse of the derivative markets the entire planet is going to be hosed. Just a matter of time now. Look at the market wobble when the Fed merely hinted at tapering.

With all respect I dont think so. If the USA fails in this manner the rest of the world will be just fine. The US is only a small piece of the planet in reality. For instance if an alien professor wants to study an earthling it wont be an American being picked to represent this planet.

Canada would absorb a bunch of the USA if the country totally failed. Then a portion of Americans will see what it is to truly be free and see a doctor without a bill. Put your money in CDN resources. The whole USA may be dissolved on purpose. Can you imagine China and Canada saying, "where is my money the USA owes me?" "Oh sorry that country doesnt exist anymore, suck it up" Boom baby 3 pointer
And where did all that money go? hahahahaha fat bellied bankers eating pork legs

edit on 5-12-2013 by WormwoodSquirm because: (no reason given)

Spoken like someone who doesn't understand national/global level finance. I used to be that way too then 2008 hit and all the government could say is that things are complicated and no one fully understood how the system worked. At that moment I realized I needed to educate myself, so I learned a bit, I don't know everything but I know enough to correct this.

If the US goes the world will go. If the EU goes the world will go. If China goes the world will go. Before we even get to the banks, you have to understand a system that has been implemented over time to prevent war: Debt. Important nations have all indebted themselves to each other, this was done so that the debt could be collateralized and used to back the nations currency. That trillion dollars we owe China doesn't just sit in a vault full of IOU's they use that debt to say to the rest of the world, the US has faith in our currency because of that our Yuan is partially backed by Dollars. Then the Euro's they own say the same thing. In the end China's currency becomes stronger by buying debt. They're not alone in this, it's not published much but the US is also the largest holder of Chinese debt, infact as a debt:gdp ratio we hold significantly more of their debt than they hold of ours. Every nation does this and it creates a system where every nation is backed by the currency of every other nation. Because debt is canceled in the event of a war this creates a system where no major power can attack another it would utterly destroy each nations economy. The downside of this however is that when one nations currency significantly drops it effects everyone. If the US has the dollar lose 50% of it's value overnight, then China which is backed by the dollar sees their currency decline. Chinese investors sell their dollars and Yuan which causes the dollar to fall further and then the Yuan to also fall. This happens in every nation at once. After this happens you get to the major banks and they begin to offload currency. In the end whatever nation is deemed the safe haven (something no one ever invested in) finds itself holding all of the worlds money while everyone else has worthless currency.

Canada would be unable to absorb the US, they would be in an equally bad position.

As for where the money goes, it doesn't actually vanish, instead it just buys a lot less while someone elses money buys a lot more. This is the reason the US has pushed fracking so hard. The goal is to become energy independent by 2020, we're already a net exporter. This is because the main bottleneck in a global financial crisis is the price of oil, if your nation can supply all of it's own oil to transport goods, you have a massive advantage over the rest of the world when the whole thing finally does collapse.

reply to post by Bassago


Based on the chart that you posted, January is the peak of the stock market and the bust will really happen after 4 months. That will be in May 2014

reply to post by Aazadan



I spend a lot of time in China doing business (import/export) and have recently returned from a 14 week sojourn organizing sea containers of products.

The sh*t will hit the fan everywhere, but in China people are unencumbered by government and this is why they will win. Doing business there is way easier and less costly than here in Australia. Right now I have a sea container sitting on the docks due to the fact that delivery is 40kms into an 'agricultural zone'. Costing me a few hundred dollars a day. Long live Capitalism!

So all the spam ads I have been seeing for the last few weeks were right.