i posted in the other thread, and i guess ill continue here as well but it has to be repeated that the entire idea hinges on the idea that its most
probable that we are in a simulation based on those prior assumptions.
therefore if you add to the constraints in the original hypothesis the probability that it is true decreases rapidly.
so the original hypothesis states that one of the following is true:
1.The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero;
2.The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero;
3.The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.
now in the other post i made arguments showing that number 1 is a pretty reasonable assumption. a posthuman stage as decribed by bostrum would require
computers more capable than energy or matter allow in our universe. in this statistical exercise its suggested that as time goes on technological
advancements come as a matter of course and that to not achieve such would imply that the race becomes extinct in some way prior. in our reality
however, there are real constraints to how small things can be made, which means how logic dense they can be. ie if you wanted to simulate our
universe in real time you would need to be able to process the state of each particle that makes it up. also you would need each processor that makes
those calculations be linked to each other and able to communicate changes in state between each update of the simulation, which would have to be very
finely grained.
basically if we were being simulated, at least one of the following would also have to be true:
1. running slower than real time, so at least 13.8 billion years
2. the universe being simulated was not an accurate representation of the real world. ie the creators of this simulator were able to build functional
logic on a subatomic scale, or perhaps the real universe was far larger and denser, and the creators used the vast bulk of it to build a universe wide
server farm.
3. the beings doing the simulations have lifespans measured in billions of earth years, and are patient.
this might be overwhelming to think about, so lets go back to #3 from the original hypothesis.
3.The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.
reconsider the amount of logic required to replicate just a single human brain in a computer. lets say they could simulate each atom that makes up
that brain, with just 10 atoms in real life. thats 10 atoms for all the logic, and interconnects and everything else that make the processor
process.
its still going to be 10 times bigger than a real brain, and more expensive to manufacture. then multiply it by 7 billion. damn even if they cost a
dollar each, in terms of adjusted buying power not many beings of any universe are going to be able to afford that.
okay, maybe they built a quantum computer, and they only needed one to learn the state of every possible atom, neutron, proton, subatomic particle
blah blah blah, its in superposition of all possible states. it was sent back in time, to begin processing the data at the very dawn of their
universe, they communicate with it via a quantum entangled particle so that the data requested always appears to be computed instantly upon entering.
that could be a possible solution to the problem, but then you would have to update the hypothesis and evaluate its probability of being true.
at the end of the day though, i think theres likely to be more humans born naturally than those simulated in a computer at least based on the limited
information i have on this possibly limited universe.
edit on 7-12-2013 by snarfbot because: (no reason given)